Before the groups started, it was announced that if Qatar won their group or was one of the best four second place teams then the fifth best second place team would advance. Here are scenarios and a timeline I posted in FIFA and Tournaments: With Lebanon's 2-1 loss to South Korea, Lebanon joined Oman as teams that are done playing and guaranteed to finish second. For Tuesday 15 June, I'll list the second place possibilities in every group in the form X/Y where X is points and Y is points not against fifth, and an X at the end means the second place team cannot advance: A: China will finish second, and they play Syria. Their possibilities are: 1. China loses: China 16/10 2. China draws: China 17/11 3. China wins: China 19/13 Possible points for second not against fifth: 10, 11, or 13 B: Jordan or Kuwait will finish second. Kuwait cannot be one of the best five second place teams, so they're eliminated. Jordan plays Australia, and Kuwait plays Chinese Taipei. Jordan leads Kuwait by 3 points, and they have the same goal differential, so if Kuwait wins and Jordan loses then Kuwait will win the goal differential tiebreaker. The possibilities are: 1. Jordan loses and Kuwait wins: Kuwait 14/8 (X) 2. Jordan loses and Kuwait draws or loses: Jordan 14/8 (X) 3. Jordan draws: Jordan 15/9 4. Jordan wins: Jordan 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 8, 9, or 11 C: Iraq and Iran can finish second. Bahrain can hypothetically finish second if they win, Iran loses, and Bahrain makes up 22 goal differential. I'm not going to list that as a possibility. Iraq plays Iran, and Bahrain plays Hong Kong. The possibilities are: 1. Iraq defeats Iran: Iran 15/9 2. Iraq and Iran draw: Iran 16/10 3. Iran defeats Iraq: Iraq 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 11 D: Saudi Arabia or Uzbekistan will finish second, and they play each other. Palestine vs. Yemen determines if Singapore or Yemen finishes fifth, which matters if Saudi Arabia finishes second. Singapore is done. Palestine leads Singapore by 12 goal differential, so I'm ignoring the possibility that Yemen beats Palestine by that much to make Palestine finish fifth. The possibilities are: 1. Saudi Arabia defeats Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 15/9 2. Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan draw: Uzbekistan 16/10 3. Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia and Palestine defeats or draws with Yemen to make Yemen finish fifth: Saudi Arabia 17/13 4. Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia and Yemen defeats Palestine to make Singapore finish fifth: Saudi Arabia 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, 11, or 13 E: Oman will finish second, and they play Bangladesh. If Bangladesh wins and India beats Afghanistan, Bangladesh could make up 3 goal differential on Afghanistan to make Bangladesh finish last. The possibiities are: 1. Oman defeats Bangladesh: Oman 18/12 2. Oman draws with Bangladesh: Oman 16/12 3. Oman loses to Bangladesh and Bangladesh remains in fifth: Oman: 15/12 4. Oman loses to Bangladesh and Afghanistan finishes fifth: Oman 15/9 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 12 F: Kyrgyz Republic or Tajikistan will finish second. They're tied, and Kyrgyz Republic's goal differential is 13 better, so I'm going to ignore cases in which they both win or both lose and Tajikistan makes up the goal diffferential. Kyrgyz Republic plays Japan, and Tajikistan plays Myanmar. Myanmar is behind Mongolia by 1 goal differential, and Mongolia is done, so Myanmar will finish fifth if they lose, and Mongolia will finish fifth if Myanmar wins or draws. Mongolia and Myanmar have 6 points, with 3 against each other, Mongolia and Kyrygz Republic beat the other one once, and Myanmar beat Tajikistan with the second game coming up. Tajikistan must win or draw against Myanmar to pass Kyrygz Republic, which would make Myanmar fifth if Tajikistan wins and make Mongolia fifth if Tajikistan draws. The possibilities are: 1. Kyrgyz Republic beats Japan and Tajikistan beats Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 13/7 (X) 2. Kyrgyz Republic beats Japan and Tajikistan draws with or loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 13/10 3. Kyrgyz Republic draws with Japan and Tajikistan draws with Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 11/8 (X) 4. Kyrgyz Republic draws with Japan and Tajikistan loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 11/8 (X) 5. Kyrgyz Republic loses to Japan and Tajikistan loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 10/7 (X) 6. Kyrgyz Republic loses to or draws with Japan and Tajikistan beats Myanmar: Tajikistan 13/10 7. Kyrgyz Republic loses to Japan and Tajikistan draws with Myanmar: Tajikistan 11/5 (X) Possible points for second not against fifth: 5, 7, 8, or 10 G: Vietnam or United Arab Emirates will finish second and play each other. Vietnam leads by 2 points. The possibilities are: 1. Vietnam defeates United Arab Emirates: United Arab Emirates 15/9 2. Vietnam draws with United Arab Emirates: United Arab Emirates 16/10 3. United Arab Emirates defeats Vietnam: Vietnam 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 11 H: The games are done, the group has four teams so there aren't any points against fifth, and Lebanon has 10. Three groups can have second get 12 or more points not against fifth, so that is guaranteed to be enough. These teams are guaranteed to advance if they win and sometimes if they draw: A: China win: Would be one of the best five second place teams B: No team C: Iraq win or draw: First/Iran win: First (exactly one of these will happen) D: Saudi Arabia win or draw/Uzbekistan win: First (exactly one of these will happen) E: Oman win or draw F: No team G: Vietnam win or draw/United Arab Emirates win (exactly one of these will happen) H: No more games At least six groups will have second have at least 9 points not against fifth, so any team that finishes second with 8 or fewer points against fifth will be eliminated. Syria, Australia, Japan, and South Korea advanced. Eight more teams will advance, and five more will be eliminated. Here are possible advances and eliminations in chronological order with USA Eastern start times: 6:25 A.M. Group F: Both Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan need a win and the other one not to win. Since Kyrgyz Republic plays Japan and Tajikistan plays Myanmar, Kyrgyz Republic will probably be eliminated, and Tajikistan will probably be alive when other groups play. At least one of Kyrgyz Republic or Tajikistan will be eliminated. 10:00 A.M. Group E: India vs. Afghanistan: In the likely event that Afghanistan draws or wins, it will eliminate Possibility 4, and Oman will advance before they play. This game cannot eliminate anybody. 11:00 A.M. Group A: Philippines vs. Maldives is irrelevant 12:30 P.M. Group C: Bahrain vs. Hong Kong and Iran vs. Iraq: Iran or Iraq will advance as a group winner, and Bahrain who trails second place Iran by 3 points and 22 goal differential will be eliminated. 12:45 P.M. Group G: United Arab Emirates vs. Vietnam will determine the winner, and Thailand vs. Malaysia is irrelevant. United Aram Emirates or Vietname will advance as a group wiiner. 1:00 P.M. Group E: Bangladesh vs. Oman: In the unlikely event that India beats Afghanistan, Oman will advance with a win or draw. Oman cannot be eliminated by losing. 2:00 P.M. Group A: China vs. Syria: China will advance with a win. Depending on earlier games, it is possible that China will advance with a draw. China can even advance with a loss, but that will probably make them wait until other games at the same time (see below) and maybe games starting one hour later. 2:00 P.M. Group D: Palestine vs. Yemen and Saudi Arabia vs. Uzbekistan: Palestine vs. Yemen determines fifth, which matters if Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia advances unless they lose and Yemen defeats Palestine, and even in that case Saudi Arabia might advance because of earlier games. The only way Saudi Arabia doesn't advance is if they lose, China wins or draws, Iran wins, Group E doesn't have possibility 4, United Arab Emirates win, and Jordan wins starting one hour later. Saudi Arabia cannot be eliminated. At least one of Saudi Arabia vs. Uzbekistan will advance before, during, or after this game. 3:00 P.M. Group B: Australia vs. Jordan and Chinese Taipei vs. Kuwait: Jordan starts the day with the possibility of advancing with a draw, but they will probably need a win by the time they play. Jordan cannot be eliminated before they play, but if enough other games go wrong, Jordan could need to win by a lot of goals. Chinese Taipei vs. Kuwait is irrelevant. I did not list every possible advance or elimination.
FIFA has released a special FIFA/Coca-Cola Ranking specifically for Asia today, 18 June 2021, which will be used to determine the seeding for the draw. Qatar, while ranked fifth in this ranking and winners of Group E in Round 2, will not be participating in the third round. Team Points 1. Japan 1529.45 2. IR Iran 1522.04 3. Australia 1477.21 4. Korea Republic 1474.96 6. Saudi Arabia 1386.03 7. United Arab Emirates 1362.30 8. Iraq 1354.51 9. China PR 1352.68 10. Oman 1304.20 11. Syria 1302.75 13. Vietnam 1260.85 16. Lebanon 1236.82 Pot 1: 1. Japan 2. IR Iran Pot 2: 3. Australia 4. Korea Republic Pot 3: 5. Saudi Arabia 6. United Arab Emirates Pot 4: 7. Iraq 8. China PR Pot 5: 9. Oman 10. Syria Pot 6: 11. Vietnam 12. Lebanon How will the draw work? Teams will be divided into six pots according to the FIFA Ranking published on 18 June 2021: Pot 1: Teams ranked 1-2, Pot 2: 3-4, Pot 3: 5-6, Pot 4: 7-8, Pot 5: 9-10, Pot 6: 11-12. The pot number corresponds to the position the team will be placed in the group. The first and second ball drawn from each pot will be placed in Groups A and B respectively. The draw will begin with Pot 6, where the first ball drawn will be placed in position A6. The next ball drawn will be placed in position B6, until the sequence is completed all the way through to Pot 1.
My preferences for the draw for my nation Pot 1 Iran We haven't played Iran since 1997 and Japan has been in our WCQ group for every world cup since we joined AFC Pot 3 UAE We had both these teams in our group last time. I think the Saudi's are the slightly stronger of the two. Pot 4 China PR Another opportunity to annoy the Chinese Government. Pot 5 Oman Syria pushed as too close last time. Pot 6 Lebanon Vietnam seem to be getting a few very good results in recent times and look like they are on the up. In the end it really doesn't matter. We will find it tough whoever we draw especially since it seems we wont be having any home games.
I just want Iran gets drawn with Australia and UAE from pots 2 and 3. Regard pots 4, 5, and 6, It really does not matter to me.
My preferences for my nation (Iraq) pot 1 Iran Both are very good teams, but I feel better about our chances against Iran than Japan. Japan to me are the best team in Asia right now. And we’ve been in their group the last 2 qualifiers. Pot 2 South Korea This one is a toss up, South Korea struggled through their group which imo was one of the easier groups while Australia breezed past theirs, but Australia struggles in the Middle East. Pot 3 U.A.E Saudi look dangerous and we always struggle against them, we have a better record against the U.A.E. Pot 5 Syria I thought Oman played great against Qatar, and at times even better than them. I have not been impressed with Syria with their 3-0 loss to Iran and their loss to China. Pot 6 Lebanon We barely won against Vietnam in the 2019 Asian cup, and I honestly don’t think Lebanon belongs in the last round. They barely beat Sri Lanka and lost to Turkmenistan.
By the way, do we know how home and away matches will work for the last round. Some countries have very tight entry requirements like Australia and China, and I’ve heard there will be VAR implemented in the last round. But countries like Iraq, Vietnam, Lebanon and maybe Iran don’t have VAR if I’m not mistaken.
Right now everyone entering Australia is required to undergo 2 weeks quarantine. FIFA windows don't go for that long so it looks like no home games for us. The A league grand final is next weekend and those players who went to Kuwait to play for Australia are not eligible to play as they wont have finished their quarantine by then. AFC may play with the schedule putting our home games at the back end of the schedule but there is still no guarantee our government will have lifted those requirements by then, even for vaccinated persons.
According to several sources, the 3rd round qualification will be hosted in 2 neutral venues. So if AFC decides on this decision they would probably choose countries which are not in 3rd round. So probably it would be Qatar from the western region and a country from far east or central asia. I don't know about far east, but if its central then Uzbekistan will have a chance.
There is still time to do it that way though we can't lose any more dates. If we start by playing two matches at a neutral venue each window then I think we need to complete the groups on neutral ground. If we lose the windows and have a mini tournament instead where we play each other once then we need a window long enough for at least five match days (15 days minimum).
I would hope for just single round all games played in Qatar. 2 games per window get it finished with this year. Spare matchdays later to cover for any further COVID delays. But obviously being from Australia neutral venues for all helps, so that's why it's my preference.
I welcome centralised venues for both groups as long as no country out of those 12 countries host any match of its own group to make it fair. Some countries have very tight entry requirements due to pandemic. So I think It is better to have centrlised venues for each group.
I disagree with single round. I think we should keep it double round robin format. The double round format almost shows which teams are the best unlike single round. The lower seeded teams (Seeds 4 to 6 teams) probably welcome single round more. I think It is more fair for all teams to have double round and that is what we will have most likely.
Group A Iran Korea Republic UAE Iraq Syria Lebanon Group B Japan Australia Saudi Arabia China Oman Vietnam
My prediction for the outcome in this group: 1.South Korea (better preparation, coach has been around for a while now and are probably eager to break their bad record against us) 2.Iran (we will probably drop some points by drawing Iraq and Syria on a bad day, which is a likely scenario but we will make it on individual talent) ----------------- 3.Iraq (good team, always give their best but they just don't fare well in lengthier qualification rounds, will probably face Saudi's in the play-off) ----------------- 4.Syria (were decent by topping their last qualification group, can cause trouble for us on a good day but are not good as a team besides their main player Al Soma) 5. UAE (no players of notice, seem to rely on Mabkhout for doing the job, Abdulrahman seemed to have fallen off due to injuries) 6.Lebanon (were very lucky to make this round after North Korea withdrew, have no business in this round and will be a 6-pointer for most of teams in this group)
Group A - UAE, Iraq , Syria and Lebanon will take points from each other which will make things for Iran and SK easy. Only thing to worry for SK is travel time as all of there away matches will be held in West Asia. For third-place, I believe it will be a tight battle between UAE, Syria and Iraq. The early pace-setters will get advantage. If either of the three manages to take points off Iran and South Korea, they will take the third-spot. Group B - Hate to see KSA grouped with Australia and Japan again. Although meeting Oman, Vietnam and China is bit more exciting. I predict close group like before where KSA might have to leave it to last match day. Japan will qualify as usual and keeping the rest of the pressure to Australia and KSA. China will be troublesome. Oman and Vietnam should be easy 6 pointers , any team dropping points against these two must find them selves in trouble.
Dropping points against the bottom two teams is what sent us to the playoffs last time. Be interesting to see how we have all changed since last time. The top 3 teams from group B for Russia are back in Group B for Qatar.
Yes its disappointing. No games between us since 1997. That's way too long for two teams who have been consistently in the top tier of AFC teams. Four world cup campaigns and four Asian Cups since we joined AFC and we are yet to play against each other.
On paper, this is pretty much the best group Iran could get. In particular, I'm certainly glad we don't have Saudi Arabia in our group. And while I was hoping to see Australia in our group to break the monotony of always facing S.Korea (4th consecutive WCQ where Iran and S Korea are in the same group), our excellent record against S. Korea in these encounters compensates somewhat for the comparatively less exciting nature of the draw than if we had been finally been drawn to face Australia.
Group A is 1st spot battle between South Korea & Iran while UAE & Iraq will mostly fight for 3rd spot unless they can take points from SK & Iran Group B, Hate to see Saudi Arabia playing against Japan & Australia but KSA has a better team this time and might be 2nd if not 1st in the group while Japan is heading for a surprise.