Dynamo 2021 Preseason

Contract extension for Jordan. Breathing room for Ramos. Moderate attendance to offset OPEX while incurring minimal out of pocket costs for Bremer.

 

I misread your initial post as bottom seed = wooden spoon instead of playoffs. My bad.

 

You've hit the nail on the head. The Dynamo have adopted the notion that 7th and in the playoffs is not much different than 2nd and in the playoffs so they build around "achieving" 6th or 7th with a couple of affordable signings or loans that they can sell to the underinformed fanbase as big acquisitions to try and generate enough enthusiasm to at least not lose additional fans. They are almost saying "why pay for a 2nd place team when you aren't that much worse off in MLS playoffs being a cheap 7th place team?". And if you get lucky you can be a 3rd or 4th place team in the right season.

The risk is that you have a few seasons like we've had where we are a basement team that can't even get to 7th and are left off of Decision Day games because no one thinks you will be in the playoff hunt. Brener and his partners have a ceiling on how much they will invest in this team which requires this strategy. I actually think it says they have no strategy because they can only use this default smoke and mirrors option.

 

I think they have the 2017 recipe confused which is why they cannot replicate it

They are obsessed with forwards

The forwards in 2017 were better than this and we were two deep at 9 with productivity

I see some comments near this but basically everyone but Quintero is being picked not for being presently productive or future promise but instead because they are almost 30 and when they were 25 had a good season we wish they could replicate, which itself is not even quite what Elis or Manotas did

If they instead replicate the "29 year old form" of last season then we have a trash lineup no better than Lassiter and Co. last year

They also had a dead ball capability with Torres, missing ever since, which meant you couldn't just hack down the forwards to end an attack, without consequence

They have also forgotten Alex -- who had 12 assists as the closest thing to a 10 in recent memory, that season

We instead have two 8s -- problem being that for erring defensive in the mid selections we ship a lot of goals in a vulnerable formation -- I don't get teams lining up in 433s without much technique in the second "3" -- it's an offensive formation with wing space the opponent can drive a truck through -- if you really wanted to commit to defense as a 6 and two 8s suggests -- why don't we just play 451 and sign some backs

They also had Sanchez off the bench which provided a precision creative bench element

And then the backline -- old as it was, and by the next season it imploded -- and keeping were solid enough we could get positive GD and GA in the 40s. Once we got the GA down we start closing out home games regularly. Setting aside that the offensive recipe was copied wrong -- like a mother who omits a secret ingredient from the notecard -- and setting aside the absence of a 10 -- the other pivotal factor in 2017 being different than the surrounding years was incremental defensive competence. We achieved similar offense other years we didn't make the postseason. We have not gotten that far because the defense went to pot. And then last year the offense as well so we bottomed out.

I think they have focused too much on the forwards while not replicating their quality. I think they lost the original creative elements in the midfield. I think the defense is not up to spec.

In terms of recent trends, Urruti and Fafa are "more like it" though probably more akin to Bruin and Barnes than what we had. ie not enough. Midfield is a wasteland. Parker and some picks are some effort at back, and maybe we will improve there, but probably not enough with no CB depth and no wingbacks at all. Keeper sucks and we'll see if Morton offers anything.

Some see us as rebuilding but the players brought in were all surplus to MLS teams, ie marginal starters, I hope they do well but we are betting against career trends. Parker is also old enough where if the defensive project takes too long he won't have any tread left to be of value as a "where are we in a couple years" player. Ditto the Fs. Even if it goes better than expected this season, I don't think it's enough for the red line, the key players are too old to really rebuild around on a longer term.......and if the recruits perform to recent form it's another season in the cellar. And we don't have the 2015-16 era cynicism of Barrett anymore to respond to struggles and shift the formation backwards and try and extract some degree of regular results. Last year says we will take our lumps and not even play much of the future while we do it.

 

The brute force of Kinnear's 442 was always leavened by Davis, Holden, and DeRo being able to make precision passes. We're trying to be slick and yet don't even have that level of quality and precision. I don't get a 433 with empty bucket mids.

To me the lack of a precision and/or dead ball element makes us a team you can just game plan out of existence. You come up with a plan to bottle the forwards. You don't play a high line. You then don't have to worry about dead ball kicks or mids creating in half court.

Those Kinnear teams were also at worst mediocre -- and often quite good -- on defense. They could therefore routinely churn out home fortress plus plenty of road points.

Last basic things lost are pragmatism and ruthlessness. Setting aside they are just cheap, there seems to be little concern for what might "work" better. We have just decided on an alternative identity regardless how it goes, regardless if something else -- either more offensive or defensive -- might be better on a shoestring. We also would never have kept Lundkvist or others around a second year much less extensions. The level of personnel ruthlessness is basically "fanboy." You have to be horrible to get cut or traded. Not just bad. Horrible. Bad you get optioned or extended or re-signed. Even if we suck. (And that circles back around to pragmatism....what team loses like we do and comes back with the same names next season....it makes no practical sense.....)

 

I reiterate that after 2017 Jordan expressed surprise at the level of success achieved. I think that speaks to the effort and expectations level in the FO. Best team in recent memory was expected to be more marginal than the 4 seed it was.

This then bumps against 2 things, under Kinnear this was a playoff regular. So we expect much better. But before they get going how that's too much to ask, 1 playoff team in several years is down near the bottom in recent performance, and simply insufficient. If more than half the teams advance in each conference, basic math suggests a competent team should be involved at least half the time.

Last point, I see some fanboy responsibility because there is not enough complaint when we bring back fan favorites regardless of results. As it stands this was historically a team that arguably cost itself another 2 titles by the Ching Reflex where we lost cup games where just one goal at a key point maybe changes the outcome. But we'd then sign Ching to come back and score 5 goals a season again.

That's now become people greeting Boniek and others back when they do nothing AND WE SUCK. So you're no longer rewarding the career end of someone who got you a trophy. You're just fanboying. If the fanboy-pandering team sucks you become part of the problem. When Boniek is subbed on instead of some Busio-equivalent you asked for it. You wanted Old Shoe instead of promising. The past over the future.

 

That's an interesting one.

Ramos seems to want to play his cards close to his chest this preseason. He's continuing the secrecy that started under Cabrera.

 

Dynamo starting XI:

F: Darwin Quintero, Christian Ramirez, Mateo Bajamich

M: Memo Rodriguez, Joe Corona, Juan Castillo

D: Ian Hoffman, Boniek Garcia, Maynor Figueroa, Jathan Juarez

G: Michael Nelson

— Corey Roepken (@RipSports) April 6, 2021

Boniek at CB apparently.

 

To me the lesson of the Last Kinnear Years was we didn't have good enough talent. So the theory goes we split out the GM. But the talent is even less competitive. And no one is accountable to that.

The other change made at the time was the shift to 433. We have made the playoffs once since. We might have been cheap before in the 442 but at least we made the playoffs sometimes, most of the time really. You can debate whether the tail off end of Kinnear was less the formation and more him abandoning the 10, becoming an empty bucket team, and weakening on defense. Basically "talent."

This is setting aside the reality where the downturn really parallels the ownership change. And/or when Kinnear lost the plot in terms of composing a team.

GM is now an unaccountable empire building exercise and the formation seems off limits. Which are the two main tools you would have to overcome the limits of ownership spending.

One theory would be they misread the failures of Late Kinnear. Another would be they don't want to spend and cynically have decided they'd rather be an entertaining loser than whatever Kinnear was at the end. I think they'd rather the discussion be about soccer or the focus group crap than about the basic level of spending that then puts the premium on coaching and GM and everything else functioning well to even have a chance. I then think their lesson from late Kinnear was if we're going to erode fans being less competitive, their better chance of keeping anyone is to provide a gimmick circus product as opposed to try discipline and risk being a boring loser. Even if history says the 2010-15 team was more competitive than 2016-onwards. And that they have eroded fans since.

I assume it's doing what they financially want as a business because if they were concerned with soccer the coaching changes are ineffective, the formation is mostly ineffective, the talent is marginal, the GM is bad. The emphasis instead being on the focus group stuff (specifically the stuff they want to discuss) says we are more a financial concern.

I bring up the fanboy stuff because attendance has never responded to the quality slide by eroding to the Astros levels where the financial consequences become a check on trying to run a sports team by spending nothing and squeezing fans.

 

I’m surprised you have time today to analyze the Dynamo after Abbott’s executive order this AM, figured you’d be ranting on that

 

Re secrecy, I do think in the internet era it's easier to scout a team by as little as watching their online games. However I would think most good teams would see it as "I will show up with my XI, you will see us coming, and we will beat you anyway." Secrecy strikes me as an insecure team looking for an edge. Like something a bad team does. Gimmick formation, hide the personnel. After all a winner might want their anticipated XI gelled more.

We also have a recent habit of misleading beginnings to seasons where you can argue we're goosing a bad team for a couple more points. My mediocre college team's coach loved fitness work. It usually was an edge for the preseason plus the first 2-3 regular season games before the competition worked themselves into shape. ie before conference play. I thought it added little over the season other than we could hold a tie through 2 OT.

 

Bajamich seems to be regularly productive, hopefully this is rewarded

 

At some point it isn't worth comparing the team build now to the Kinnear era. Nine teams (including Austin) have been added since he left in 2014. The league has evolved since then after teams like Seattle and Portland started an arms race. Houston is stuck in the Kinnear era mindset thinking they can replicate what he did but not realizing the teams from 2010-2014 probably would be average teams and not making finals. I've said it before but it is worth repeating. Houston wasn't a normal expansion team, they moved a top team to the city and handed over two titles that San Jose would have won had they not been relocated. Houston was spoiled and the FO has never had to build from an expansion level. They didn't have this $300 million buy-in that teams have and it means owner probably care since they are paying so much. Instead they play fake money ball and aren't even good at that. Brener and the FO are stuck in a MLS 2.0 mindset. It is eye opening when soccer pundits are saying Houston had a great offseason but they still probably are a toss up to make the playoffs. It shows how bad things are we are pretty close to the FO hanging banners for playoff qualifications and not actual trophies.

 

At some point surely Ramos will have to stop playing cloak and dagger and line-up his anticipated starting XI to get them some reps versus legitimate competition. Or was that he was doing in those closed door matches?

You have to think we see close to a starting XI on the 10th.

 

Corey Roepken had the line-ups yesterday as:

Starting:

F: Quintero-Ramirez -Bajamich

M: Memo-Corona-Castilla

D: Juarez, Boniek, Figueroa, Hoffman

GK: Nelson

Half-time:

F: Quintero-Ramirez -Bajamich

M: Memo-Jones-Corona

D: Juarez, Boniek, Figueroa, Hoffman

GK: Nelson

Final 20 Minutes:

F: Pasher-Lassiter-Picault

M: Rios-Jones-Vera

D: Sargeant, Junqua, Parker, Valentin

GK: Nelson

Line-up versus Austin FC:

F: Pasher - Urruti - Picault

M: Ceren-Jones-Vera

D: Lundkvist-Junqua-Parker-Valentin

GK: Maric

Line-up versus Tulsa

F: Pasher-Urruti-Rodriguez

M: Vera-Jones-Ceren

D: Lundkvist-Junqua-Parker-Valentin

GK: Maric


Defense: I think it's noteworthy that Junqua has received all these reps beside Parker. Originally thought it was due to injury/call-ups, but is there a chance that Junqua is slated as a starter? That comes out of left field to say the least

Valentin and Lundkvist look set as the starting fullbacks. No surprise there.

Midfield: I'm a lot less clear on. Jones seems like a fixture to the extent that I'm tempted to pencil him in as the starting #6. Vera seems to have advanced into the #8 role. No clue who the 3rd MF is? Corona, Memo, Ceren?

Forwards: I'm shocked at this point if Urruti isn't the starting #9. Other pieces are less clear to me though, although I assume that Picault starts. Third man out is Pasher, Quintero, Memo?

Bizarre that Quintero has only played with the B-team guys. I don't know if this cloak and dagger Ramos or we actually see a weird line-up. Starting XI based purely off preseason games to date would be:

Pasher-Urruti-Picault
Corona-Jones-Vera
Lundkvist-Parker-Junqua-Valentin
Maric

 

I agree that if you want to make it even semi-meaningful, you should at least stream every game and not cloak and dagger the thing behind closed doors. I know it was just thrown together but it’s either a semi-meaningful thing or it’s a glorified set of scrimmages

1379804120161390600 is not a valid tweet id

 

Correct!
Again, the sport is still in the process of being grown and cultivated in our turbo crowded sports landscape we have here in Houston and the U.S. overall. Thus it is imperative for any soccer club to get the sport out to the community by any means necessary allowing current fans and potential fans to get in on our team.

I nearly vomit when I even begin to think that Ramos will somehow pencil in Lundkvist and leave out Quintero and Memo from our Opening Day Starting XI!!!

Profe Ramos, as a fellow coach of the beautiful game

 

This seems like a league wide issue this year to be fair to the Dynamo. I don't know if the league is trying to do some level of quality control on preseason (dumb in my opinion, but who knows), but I don't think the Dynamo are the driving force behind this.

 

yeah there was some league rule that you could only stream within like 150 miles of the teams’ home stadiums. Made little sense to me m

 

I think they're somewhat obsessed with presentation of the league and controlling the image, but I have to say that I don't think most non- diehard MLS fans are watching these things in any case.