Between NZ, CAN, and AUS, I would actually probably bet on AUS. AUS is already the highest-ranked of those three squads, (and also above BRA for that matter, though BRA will rise after the SBC,) and CAN's recent form is not great. Granted, AUS (and NZL) could have rust issues, but that's what the group stage is for.
That's not what I said at all My point was you didn't include the fifth-best team at the tournament in your top eight. Australia is most definitely a pretty well-known quantity, not a "dark horse": they've made three consecutive AFC finals, and have been Olympic quarter-finalists the last two times they qualified. I don't think anyone treats Australia like an easy match. If anything, your original list treated NZ like a dark horse: they're usually only rated around 20th in the world, while there are eight teams in the tournament from the world top ten (and both China and Korea are higher-ranked than NZ as well).
I think Australia have not played a game for more than a year now, they will be really rusty come the Olympics. Same can be said of Team GB who will have only one official friendly before flying to Tokyo.
Sorry, I edited the list several times. I originally had a bunch of European teams that isn't even going to the Olympics (France, Spain, Germany), and I had NZ instead of AUS. I was making a conclusion based in your post. You didn't say AUS was the DH. But if AUS is the best of the second-tiers I think they could be (if they are in form) this Olympics DH. No? I wasn't trying to be disingenuous.
Ah, maybe it's just a disagreement on what "dark horse" means. Usually I've heard it to mean someone who's showing talent but has, until recently, been a relative unknown (hence the "dark" part of "dark horse") and thus a run of victories comes as a surprise to many people. AUS is definitely not unknown, so that's one way they wouldn't qualify as a dark horse. Also, even though AUS has yet to truly find their "clutch gear", i.e. winning when it matters, they've shown that they play at or near top-tier level fairly consistently for the past five years; that is, while AUS finding that clutch would be new for them, it would not be very surprising, at least in my opinion. The bad thing about the Olympics is that the smaller playing field makes it hard to have any "dark horses"... It's very easy for most of the world top ten to qualify, and the remaining spots of the twelve are then usually minnows from CAF and C'BOL. You really lose that middle tier of nations that would otherwise house the up-and-coming teams that have the potential to do well with a surprise run but don't have a record of doing well yet. NZ and maybe Chile would be the potential dark horse candidates of this OG, but neither of them are showing much promise at the moment either.
I see, we have slight different definition of Dark Horse. For me it is a team (any team) outside the top-contenders (not expected to reach the last stages) that could have a surprising run and reach the semi or even win it all. I always like dark-horses, they keep things interesting and top team in their toes.
My dark horse in Olympics would be... as per @SiberianThunderT definition - Zambia as per @Hexa definition - China Take a peak in very intresting Case Study about upcoming future of 12 best teams in women's football... WOMEN’S PERFORMANCE GAP BUILDING AND SUSTAINING AN ELITE MATILDAS TEAM FOR 2023 AND BEYOND PUBLISHED DECEMBER 2020 Australia future is pretty much grim if they don't step up with development during the next 2 years...
Very interesting, thank you for sharing. Yes, it seems that Australia needs to step up their development game and make room for new blood.
Interesting report... I'm sure all the numbers are good on their own, but considering it's an Australian report that suggest Australia is the worst in almost every category and needs to invest in order to compete, I would suspect that the data chosen to present was probably chosen to make the case for investment the best... Besides, WWC host countries always go out in the QFs, so no pressure to make the top four or anything like that!
As per the "dark horse" thing, I think sometimes you just don't have a dark horse, or at least you don't have one you can point to in a predictive sense. If no low-ranked nations have a strong hint of maybe being able to overperform their ranking, then you don't really have a case. So I wouldn't say Zambia is a good dark horse in this OG, since I don't see them making it out of any group, much less win a knockout match. China's ranking isn't that far above NZ - I think closer to NZ than to the top ten, IIRC - so I would maybe view China as another potential dark horse, but that's starting to border on somewhat expected. And since they're going to be rusty like AUS, GB, etc. will be, I don't see them as having any particular signs right now of overperforming their ranking.
If we're to seed/draw everyone on the most recent rankings, the groups would be(with Japan in Group A). Group A: Japan Great Britain Brazil Zambia Group B: USA Sweden Australia Chile/Cameroon Group C: Netherlands Canada South Korea/China New Zealand
Base on these groups, Group A 1) Japan 2) Brazil Group B (group of death) 1) USA 2) ? too close to call for me between Sweden and Australia Group C 1) Netherland 2) Canada US is the team to beat. Maybe Japan playing home could give them some sort of test.
#WomensOlympicQualifying@rflalves @raffacarolina @CathiaValentim @DiarioFFeminino @Loremont @JoseRomanh93 Chile 🇨🇱 v Cameroon 🇨🇲Both legs of the qualifying match will be played in Turkey— Wosoworld (@karlyboy71) March 16, 2021
The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Organising Committee said on Saturday that international spectators will not be allowed to enter Japan during the Olympic Games which are scheduled for this summer. https://t.co/W6cz1G6G1E— Reuters Sports (@ReutersSports) March 20, 2021
The Flame of Hope 🇯🇵🔥Japanese footballer Iwashimizu Azusa, 2011 @FIFAWWC winner and #London2012 silver medalist, is the first reliever at the start of #OlympicTorchRelay in Fukushima.#Tokyo2020— #Tokyo2020 (@Tokyo2020) March 25, 2021 (supported by Nadeshiko Japan) The first kiss of the #Tokyo2020 Olympic torch on Japanese soil! 🇯🇵 🔥#OlympicTorchRelay #HopeLightsOurWay— #Tokyo2020 (@Tokyo2020) March 25, 2021
Paul Kennedy @pkedit 19m Only four countries will be represented in both men's and women's soccer at 2021 Olympics: host Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.
Probably means that those countries will have both their men's and women's teams in the tournaments. Don't think the football tournaments are being reduced to just 4 teams.
South Korea`s men are qualified and the women are in the play-off against China. It means that USA and Canada have lost in the men`s qualifying tournament. This will happen on Thursday.
March 3 (Reuters) - The South Korean women’s team will play their Olympic qualifying games against China on April 8 and 13 in Goyang and Suzhou after multiple postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) said on Wednesday.
Threads: Cameroon v Chile Olympic playoff • 10 & 13 Apr 2021 www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2114482 S Korea v China Olympic playoff • 8 & 13 Apr 2021 www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2114502
I'll change my draw predictions: GROUP A Japan Great Britian Canada Zambia GROUP B USA Sweden Australia Chile GROUP C Netherlands Brazil China New Zealand