211 To 1: World Cup 2022 Elimination Timeline [R]

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by EvanJ, Jun 7, 2019.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  2. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    I primarily use FlashScore as well.
     
    Dr. Gamera repped this.
  3. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    With the withdrawal of St Lucia it would also be possible for the Turks and Caicos or Belize to be eliminated this month. They play 2 of their three groups matches and could have 0 points and another team could have 4+ (or similar)

    J
     
    Paul Calixte, EvanJ and IASocFan repped this.
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A group can be won with 3 points if every game is a draw. As soon as there is a win, it takes at least 4 points to win. If Belize or Turks and Caicos Islands loses twice, they will be eliminated. Even if they could finish above every team separately, they wouldn't be able to finish first.

    Tajikistan vs. Mongolia is tomorrow at 9:00 A.M. USA Eastern.
     
  5. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Flashscore.com or sofascore.com

    FIFA has to have it on its website.
     
    Dr. Gamera repped this.
  6. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    185. Mongolia

    The remaining 184 countries are 34 of 46 in AFC, 40 of 54 in CAF, all 55 in UEFA, 34 of 35 in Concacaf (St. Lucia withdrew), all 10 in CONMBEOL, and all 11 in OFC.
     
    Dr. Gamera and IASocFan repped this.
  7. amvrosio

    amvrosio New Member

    Aug 24, 2007
    México D. F.
    184. Dominica
    183. Cuba
     
    Dr. Gamera and Paul Calixte repped this.
  8. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Oh ... indeed that is the case. I imagine Evan is kicking himself at the moment :)

    Either than or recalculating all the other teams that could be eliminated tommorow (Cayman Islands) or the next day (maybe Aruba or Bermuda if Caymans lose first as well as a loser of BVI/SVG, AIA/BRB, BAH/GUY plus maybe others)

    J
     
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I wasn't thinking about eliminations. I read https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2022-wc-qatar-worldwide-opponents-watch-all-rs.2104215/page-8 which made me come here. Here are the scenarios:

    Group A: The loser of Grenada vs. U.S. Virgin Islands will still be alive.

    Group B: If Canada beats Cayman Islands tomorrow, Cayman Islands will be eliminated, and if Bermuda vs. Aruba on Tuesday has a loser that team will be eliminated.

    Group C: If St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. British Virgin Islands on Tuesday has a loser, they will be eliminated. Cuba is in the unusual situation of being the first team in the group to be eliminated but being ahead of the other two pointless teams in goal differential. That's what can happen when games played are unequal.

    Group D: If Barbados vs. Anguilla on Tuesday has a loser, they will be eliminated. Dominica is eliminated while being above Anguilla on goal differential.

    Group E: St. Lucia withdrew, so the group will have the same format as a World Cup group. If Belize vs. Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday has a loser, they will be eliminated. If that is a draw, it will be hypothetically possible to have every team finish 1-1-1.

    Group F: If Guyana vs. Bahamas on Tuesday has a loser, they will be eliminated.

    Therefore Cayman Islands is very likely to be eliminated, and five more are possible.
     
    BrianLBI repped this.
  10. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    I refer the defendant to Exhibit A - post #97 in this thread :)

    J

    The prosecution rests.
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    182. Cayman Islands

    Canada leads 6-0, so I'm posting before it ends.
     
    voiceoflg, IASocFan and Every Four Years repped this.
  12. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Canada won 11-0. Before today, Canada and USA both had their record be 8.
     
    Dr. Gamera and Every Four Years repped this.
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    181. Bahamas after they lost to Guyana 4-0
     
    IASocFan and Dr. Gamera repped this.
  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #114 EvanJ, Mar 30, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2021
    180. Turks and Caicos Islands because they lost to Belize 5-0

    In June AFC will have 21 eliminations. Of the 40 teams, 12 will advance to Round 3, Qatar won't play in Round 3, and 6 are eliminated, which is 19. Concacaf will have 18 to 21 eliminations depending on how many they have tonight. 179 teams are left, and it will be 137 after June. Concacaf plays on June 2, 4, 5, and 8 in Round 1; and legs on June 12 and 15 that will eliminate 3 teams in June 15. AFC plays June 3, 7, 11. and 15. Cambodia, Palestine, and India will probably be eliminated on June 3.
     
    IASocFan and Dr. Gamera repped this.
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    179. British Virgin Islands because they lost 3-0 to St. Vincent and the Grenadines
     
    IASocFan and Dr. Gamera repped this.
  16. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    178. Anguilla because they lost to Barbados 1-0
    177. Aruba trails Bermuda 4-0

    Concacaf has four groups with three teams alive, one group with four teams alive, and one group with all five teams alive.
     
    IASocFan, Dr. Gamera and edcalvi repped this.
  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lebanon is the only team who played North Korea twice, and they got a draw and a loss. Turkmenistan, South Korea, and Lebanon have 8 points, and AFC will have to decide what to do about unequal games played. The fair thing would be to take out every teams' games against North Korea, and AFC will also have to decided what to do comparing the second place teams. North Korea will finish fourth. If Lebanon finishes second, they can be compared to other second place teams fairly based on 8 games. If South Korea or Turkmenistan finishes second with 7 games, AFC may have to compare the second place teams against first, third, and fifth; or just first and third.

    I'm really surprised that FIFA didn't write anything about North Korea withdrawing. They still have North Korea's games scheduled.
     
  18. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    The initial article was from Yonhap. They have claimed that numerous people have been killed who subsequently turned up quite alive - so this being "ahead of the truth" would hardly be a surprise. Most articles acutally suggest North Korea informally said they would pull out and the AFC is currently trying to dissaude them.

    J
     
    Paul Calixte repped this.
  19. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    FWIW - Those matches have now actually been scheduled (as in times and locations in S.Korea). Doesn't mean they will turn up, but again - the first claim was a rumour (as opposed to an actual annoucement).

    J
     
  20. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The games are back up on Wikipedia. I removed North Korea from my elimination list.

    The next game is in 17 days, but Japan vs. Myanmar on May 28 and Guam vs. China PR on May 30 are likely blowouts. In 22 days on June 2, Concacaf has six games, and AFC has a bunch the next day. The two weeks from June 2 through 15 have 58 games in AFC, 34 in Concacaf, and 10 in CONMEBOL.

    As I said in Post 114, Cambodia, Palestine, and India will probably be eliminated on June 3. Here are Concacaf's scenarios for June 2:

    Group A:
    Antigua and Barbuda 4
    El Salvador 4
    Grenada 3
    Montserrat 2
    U.S. Virgin Islands 0
    June 2: Montserrat vs. U.S. Virgin Islands in Dominican Republic will eliminate exactly one team. Both of them will be eliminated with a loss, and U.S. Virgin Islands will be eliminated with a draw. Antigua and Barbuda ends at El Salvador, guaranteeing that at least one of them will get at least 5 points without thinking about games against Grenada, so U.S. Virgin Islands will be eliminated if they have 0 or 1 with one game left. Montserrat would be eliminated with a loss because that would prevent the from getting more than 5 points. When Antigua and Barbuda hosts Grenada on June 4, the only way neither of them exceeds 5 is with a draw, but then Antigua and Barbuda would have 5 and El Salvador would have at least 4 before they end against each other.

    Group B:
    Canada 6
    Suriname 6
    Bermuda 3
    Aruba 0 (eliminated)
    Cayman Islands 0 (eliminated)
    June 2: Cayman Islands vs. Aruba in Bradenton, Florida, USA is meaningless.

    Group C:
    Curacao 6
    Guatemala 6
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines 3
    Cuba 0 (eliminated)
    British Virgin Islands 0 (eliminated)
    June 2: Cuba vs. British Virgin Islands in Guatemala City, Guatemala is meaningless.

    Group D:
    Dominican Republic 6
    Panama 6
    Barbados 3
    Dominica 0 (eliminated)
    Anguilla 0 (eliminated)
    June 2: Dominica vs. Anguilla is meaningless.

    Group E (four teams because St. Lucia withdrew):
    Nicaragua 3 from 1 game, +7
    Belize 3 from 2 games, +3
    Haiti: 3 from 1 game, +2
    Turks and Caicos Islands: 0 from 2 games, -12 (eliminated)
    There will not be a game on June 2. The next game is Nicaragua vs. Belize, which will make Belize finish while Haiti has 2 games left.

    Group F:
    St. Kitts and Nevis 6
    Trinidad and Tobago 4
    Guyana 3
    Puerto Rico 1
    Bahamas 0 (eliminated)
    June 2: Puerto Rico vs. Bahamas will eliminate Puerto Rico if they don't win.

    I think Puerto Rico will win, which will mean Montserrat or U.S. Virgin Islands will be the only elimination on June 2. The latter will be at 4:00 P.M. USA Eastern, which is 2 hours before Puerto Rico plays, so Puerto Rico will not be the next elimination.
     
  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    176. North Korea
     
    Dr. Gamera and IASocFan repped this.
  22. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Could be 177. North Korea.

    If the AFC make the decision to cut North Korea's results entirely and go to "Best 2nd excluding results against 5th place teams" (which was the system for 2018) - then Guam is no longer eliminated. (They can finish 2nd but need the change to exclude some results from the comparison for them to be in the best 4/5)

    J
     
  23. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's a good point. I hope AFC decides soon. Guam plays China on May 30, which is before most AFC teams play on June 3, so if Guam is alive now then they will be 176.
     

Share This Page