211 To 1: World Cup 2022 Elimination Timeline [R]

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by EvanJ, Jun 7, 2019.

  1. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006

    when I heard that Marc Wilmots had taken over for Iran I had a feeling Iran's form would drastically dip.

    This is the same Marc Wilmots who in charge of Belgium, lost to Wales at the euro 2016

    He then took over a star studded Ivory Coast and did nothing but lose. Before he took over they were sitting comfortable at the top of their WCQ group. They had drawn 0-0 with Morocco in Morocco.

    He takes over and all they needed was a draw against Morocco at home in the final match to qualify for the WC. They lost 2-0. Now that Wilmots left Ivory Coast, they are drastically improving.

    Of course Belgium drastically improved once Wilmots left.

    Wilmots has proven himself a horrible coach and a complete failure, I cannot understand why Iran would hire him, but it seems they too are suffering from his horrid coaching.
     
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  2. Philip J. Fry

    Philip J. Fry Member+

    Mexico
    Jun 12, 2013
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Kind of a shame since Iran is one of the few good teams of an otherwise poor confederation.
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are AFC scenarios for tomorrow:

    Group A: If Guam (0 points) loses at Maldives, Guam will have a maximum of 9 points. If Guam loses and Philippines (7 points) wins at Syria (12 points), Guam will be eliminated. It's unlikely. If Guam loses at Philippines on Match 7 on 26 March 2020, Guam will be eliminated.

    Group B: Chinese Taipei (0 points) will be eliminated if they lose at Jordan or if they draw at Jordan and Kuwait (7 points) wins at Nepal (3 points). Beyond the fact that Chinese Taipei's goal differential is 31 worse than Kuwait's, the latter case would require Chinese Taipei to win their last 3 games and have Kuwait lose their last 3 games, including hosting Jordan, in which case Chinese Taipei couldn't pass Jordan. Australia leads with 12 points.

    Group C: No eliminations are possible.

    Group D: No eliminations are possible.

    Group E: No eliminations are possible.

    Group F: No eliminations are possible.

    Group G: Indonesia (1 points) will be eliminated with a draw or loss at Malaysia (6 points) and a Thailand (7 points) win at Vietnam (10 points).

    Group H: Sri Lanka (0 points) will be eliminated with a loss at Turkmenistan (6 points).

    It may be possible for the teams I wrote about to be eliminated in other ways if they need to pass two teams and can pass either one but not both because they play each other. I did not check if any teams could be eliminated by guaranteeing that the best they could do is one of the worst three second place teams.
     
  4. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Well - 191 Sri Lanka

    J
     
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  5. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    190 - Indonesia (ref above - after their match, the THA result was not crucial)
    189 - Guam (at some point they couldn't be one of the top 5 runners-up)
    188 - Chinese Taipei (I think this would have been after Guam)

    J
     
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  6. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's a long explanation showing that you got the order right:

    Let's look at second place teams with more points than Guam's limit of 9. Kuwait has 10 in Group B, and Oman has 12 in Group E. We need three more. Next I'll look at the minimum points for second place in groups considering who plays each other. Guam is in Group A, so I'll look at Groups C, D, F, G, and H:

    Group C: Iraq 11 from 5, Bahrain 9 from 5, Iran 6 from 4, Hong Kong 5 from 5, Cambodia 1 for 5
    Iraq and Bahrain played a draw today and are done playing each other. In order for second place Bahrain not to reach 10, they need to lose every game. That gives Iran 3 more to make 9, and Hong Kong 3 more to make 8. Iran and Hong Kong play each other, so at least one of them would reach 10. Second place from this group will have at least 10 and be above Guam.

    Group D: Uzbekistan 9 from 5, Saudi Arabia 8 from 4, Singapore 7 from 5, Yemen 5 from 5, Palestine 4 from 5
    Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore play the other two. If two of them win, second will have at least 10. If all three are draws, second will have at least 10. Let's say Uzbekistan wins every game and wins the group. To avoid either one getting to 10, Saudi Arabia and Singapore must draw. That would give Saudi Arabia 9 and Singapore 8. Saudi Arabia must lose to Yemen and Palestine, which would give Yemen 8 and Palestine 7. Singapore won at Yemen today, and they're done playing each other. If Singapore and Yemen both draw with Palestine, there would be a four-way tie for second with 9 points. Even if it's a one in a million chance, second place could have 9 and finish behind Guam on goal differential.

    Group F: Japan 12 from 4, Kyrgyz Republic 7 from 5, Tajikistan 7 from 5, Myanmar 6 from 5, Mongolia 3 from 5
    To minimize second place, we want Japan to win out. The bottom four teams who played each other for the second time today are Myanmar 1-0 Mongolia and Kyrgyz Republic 1-1 Tajikistan. If the remaining 4 games between two of the bottom four are all draws, Kyrgyz Republic will be second with 9. They are ahead of Tajikistan on goal differential, and that will remain the same if both teams draw their remaining games. Second place could have 9 and finish behind Guam on goal differential.

    Since Guam is eliminated, at this point second place from Groups G and H must be guaranteed at least 10 points.

    Group G: Vietnam 11 from 5, Malaysia 9 from 5, Thailand 8 from 5, United Arab Emirates 6 from 4, Indonesia 0 from 5
    Thailand hosts Malaysia and at least one of them will finish with at least 10 points. Second place from this group will have at least 10 and be above Guam.

    Group H:
    Turkmenistan 9 from 5, Korea Republic 8 from 4, Lebanon 8 from 5, Korea DPR 8 from 5, Sri Lanka 0 from 5
    Turkmenistan 2-0 Sri Lanka and Lebanon 0-0 Korea DPR are the teams who played each other twice. If Turkmenistan loses all of their remaining games, Korea Republic and Lebanon will have at least 11. If Turkmenistan doesn't lose all of their remaining games, one of Korea Republic or Lebanon will have at least 9, and the other will have at least 8, before the head-to-head game is considered, and that would guarantee one of Korea Republic or Lebanon reaching 10 along with Turkmenistan. It's possible that third is guaranteed to have at least 10 also. Second place from this group will have at least 10 and be above Guam.

    Now let's look at games in reverse chronological order to find when Guam was eliminated:

    Lebanon 0-0 Korea DPR: This game did not eliminate Guam. If the game had a winner, that team would have had 10, and the loser would have had 7. The Korea Republic vs. Turkmenistan game would guarantee another team having at least 10.

    Jordan 5-0 Chinese Taipei: This game did not eliminate Guam. Australia had 12 and Kuwait had 10 before this game.

    Yemen 1-2 Singapore: This game did not eliminate Guam. Second place could still have 9 points.

    Oman 1-0 India: This game eliminated Guam. Qatar had 13 points before this game. Oman had 9, and to finish with 9 they would have had to lose every remaining game. Losing to India would have given Oman 9, India 6, and Afghanistan 4. Oman losing to Afghanistan later would have gotten Afghanistan to 7. Now I'll look at India vs. Afghanistan. Afghanistan can't get to 10, so they can't win. A draw would give them 8 and India 7. Bangladesh has 1 and would be up to 4 with a win over Oman, so they can't beat Afghanistan and India. If Bangladesh got draws against both of them, it would have given Oman 9, Afghanistan 9, India 8, and Bangladesh 6.
     
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  7. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Well, if there's one thing better than being right - it's a wall of text to prove it!!!

    J
     
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  8. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So...um...should we add Russia to the list? :eek:

     
  9. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    Shame there won't be no Dzyuba or Cherishev at Qatar 2022.
     
  10. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Looks like I stand corrected:

    Emphasis mine.
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As I posted in the Qatar 2022 topic, Russia can use the name "Russia" in WCQs, but not in the WC.
     
  12. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    I guess it will be probably be something like what happened in Euro ‘92 when the USSR played as the CIS or IIRC like Czechoslovakia in the ‘94 WC qualifiers when they played as the RCS (Representation of Czechs and Slovaks).

    What could they be called? “Representation of Russians” (RR)? “Footballers Representing/From Russia” (FRR/FFR), maybe, more like the Olympic title?

    The CIS records from Euro ‘92 were later credited to Russia. Would the same happen here? (I mean like in 15 years when everyone’s forgotten about it).
     
  13. Thezzaruz

    Thezzaruz Member+

    Jun 20, 2011
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
  14. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Next to be eliminated should now be Bangladesh who apparently restart AFC qualifiers in December taking on Qatar. Everyone else restarts in March 2021.

    Bangladesh will be eliminated if they don't win.

    J
     
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  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That will be tomorrow at 7:00 P.M. local, which is 11:00 A.M. for me. https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/asia/matches/match/400080700/#match-lineups is for that game. I hadn't updated my spreadsheet since November 19, 2019. Assuming Bangladesh draws or loses, 186 countries will remain. Without looking at scenarios for second place teams, AFC's likely eliminations in March are:

    Group A: If Maldives loses at China PR and China PR wins at Guam, Maldives will be eliminated. Philippines host Guam and then have off, so they should be able to stay alive until they go to China in June.

    Group B: In order to survive, Nepal needs to win hosting Chinese Taipei and Australia and have either Australia not win hosting Kuwait or Kuwait vs. Jordan being a draw.

    Group C: Hong Kong will be eliminated if they lose at IR Iran and Bahrain wins hosting Cambodia. Both of those are on the first March matchday. If Hong Kong survive, they could still be eliminated on the second March matchday.

    Group D: I'm going to do scenarios because the teams are packed together, with every team having 4 to 9 points. Teams could be eliminated by being unable to be a second place team that advances while still in contention to finish second.

    Group E: Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh must win every game and get help in order to advance. If Bangladesh wins tomorrow to stay alive, Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan will eliminate at least one of them on the first March matchday, and both of them would be eliminated with a draw. India must win hosting Qatar to stay alive. Because of the game that was moved up, the second March matchday will have only one game, which will be Afghanistan vs. Oman.

    Group F: Kyrgyz Republican (7 points), Tajikistan (7 points), and Myanmar (6 points) might all stay alive until June.

    Group G: United Arab Emirates is in fourth, but they're the only team with four games left, and they host the top three. Everyone other than eliminated Indonesia could survive until June.

    Group H: Turkmenistan has 9, and Korea Republic (with a game in hand and hosting the rest of the top four), Lebanon, and Korea DPR all have 8. Everyone except eliminated Sri Lanka could survive until June.

    Maldives, Nepal, Hong Kong, Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh are six likely elimination tomorrow or in March. Four teams have been eliminated so far this round, and 27 teams will be eliminated, with 12 advancing and Qatar not going to the Third Round.

    Concacaf still hasn't announced a schedule to fit all the games. With single round-robin groups of five that only advance the winners, teams could be eliminated in March. The last matchday has Pot 1 teams host Pot 2 teams. That makes it easier for other teams to be eliminated through two of four games because two teams that play each other can't both lose. If two teams win their first two games, anyone who loses their first two games will be eliminated. No confederation other than AFC and Concacaf can eliminate anybody in March.
     
  16. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Meh - was somewhat tempted to go to the game as they're allowing some fans in. Actually, teams like Nepal, Phillipines, India, Egypt, etc. are actually pretty exciting to see here in Qatar as they have a sizeable group of fans who show up and cheer for the visitors. Looks like we're doing something else though tomorrow night. I guess it'll be goodnight for Bangladesh...
     
  17. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Bangladesh down 2 at the break...
     
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  18. TheAnswer1313

    TheAnswer1313 Member+

    Dec 12, 2007
    Charleston, WV
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Yeah looks like Bangladesh is toast.
     
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  19. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    187. Bangladesh

    It ended 5-0.
     
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  20. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AFC postponed games from March to June except for four:

    March 29: Nepal vs. Australia (Group B)
    Nepal must win to stay alive.

    March 30: Saudi Arabia vs. Palestine (Group D)
    If Saudi Arabia wins, they clinch finishing above Palestine. I looked at other groups to see if Palestine could finish as one of the best five second place teams to advance (best five instead of best four because the winners and four best second place teams will include Qatar). Palestine might be alive with a one in a million chance as they would have to win their last two games and get a lot of help including Guam beating China.

    March 25: Tajikistan vs. Mongolia and March 30: Mongolia vs. Japan (Group F)
    Mongolia must win both to avoid elimination because of the games between Kyrgyz Republic (7 points), Tajikistan (7 points), and Myanmar (6 points).

    Including Qatar, the amount of teams left will probably go from 186 to 184.
     
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  21. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    This one was also postponed a day or so ago. It will now take place in June
     
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  22. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Okay. So Mongolia will probably make it two consecutive times (December 2020 and March 2021) that a month had one elimination in AFC and none anywhere else.
     
  23. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Apparently

    186. St Lucia

    They have been removed from the FIFA website list - although haven't seen anything else about it yet - apart from a rumour from a while back.



    J
     
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  24. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  25. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

    Oct 13, 2005
    Wheaton, Maryland
    So where do people follow national-team schedules and scores on a PC these days? In previous cycles, I followed on fifa.com, but that doesn't seem to be possible any more. flashscore.com is the least bad alternative I've found so far.
     
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