The All-Encompassing Pro/Rel Thread on Soccer in the USA

Discussion in 'Soccer in the USA' started by bigredfutbol, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's not the case because the 4th to bottom team can get 71 points.
     
  2. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just for you I went here and predicted every remaining scheduled match and came up with this.
    Screenshot_20210210-220339_Chrome.jpg

    Man City's 38th match will be at home to Southampton. I'm not sure about Fulham's.
     
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  3. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    Yeah, I also did some back of the cocktail napkin scenarios and I think I have to concede that it’s mathematically possible. It gets way too hairy around mid table to work it all out, and 3 of Fulham’s possible losses have to be against Burnley (twice) and Newcastle. It looks like there are just enough games for clubs currently under 30 points against the top 6 and bottom two to theoretically all get to 51. I wasn’t 100% sure that both Arsenal and Villa could make it if this were to play out, but there are just way too many more permutations than I’m willing to work out and feel relatively confident it works out. In your simulation it didn’t just work out, somehow Arsenal managed to win it all!

    Now, of course, there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that City will get relegated, but I think the earliest that are mathematically secure can’t be for another 2 weeks or so.

    So, anyway, I know I’m breaking the primary rule of internet message boards, but I stand corrected.
     
  4. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My method was totally scientific. I really did waste 30 minutes predicting results for all EPL scheduled matches.
     
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  5. Crawleybus

    Crawleybus Member+

    Oct 18, 2013
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Wow I can't believe you went through all that! But there's something not quite right here, there are already 848 points 'dropped' because of drawn games and the total points tally you have already (with a few games left) is 999, add to that the points missed (2 for every drawn game) and thats a grand total of 1145 points allocated (so far) in your table, the problem is that I believe there are only a maximum of 1140 points available at the start of every season?
     
  6. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's fair ... generally speaking being closer to the top subset of teams than the bottom subset of teams has you in the playoff race in our sports (wolves are 10pts off 5th place chelsea, 12 pts above rel zone).

    in the majority of our closed leagues they'd still be in the playoff hunt though ...
    ... SheffU though? yeeeaaaahhhh not so much playing for much but job security.

    You just did ... "there matches still have and could continue to have jeapordy going forward where they wouldn't in a closed league"

    No ... I'm just pointing to the fact that the way our closed leagues are shaped, the "risk/danger/bottom line/etc" is just in a different spot in the standings. Yes, some pro/rel leagues have this as well. Sure, you can have a closed shop with nothing other than the season.

    The contention from the opposite side has always been that "games don't matter" in closed shops or there is "nothing to play for" in these set ups. They then state, as you have, that pro/rel CAN have playoffs so they just wash that away for closed leagues ... there was even a conversation had in this thread a while ago that essentially stated that because the EFL Championship playoffs awarded a promotion slot it MEANT MORE than playoffs in any of our leagues.

    That's the subjective part. To me, Derby getting their shot in the EPL and some money didn't mean more than the Nationals earning a Wild Card berth that landed them the World Series Title a couple years ago. It seems that those arguing for pro/rel are conflating what the stakes are in that environment to what they are in one without. NOBODY is debating WHAT the stakes are. For me, and most of the others in this thread on "my" side of the debate is simply that stakes do exist, do matter, and have an affect on clubs in closed shops.

    Nobody has stated that the "stakes" at the bottom of the table in pro/rel weren't "more" (at least not I or Jasonma, Barraldinho). Hell, none of us have ever stated stakes are the same .. in fact part of our whole debate IS THAT they're different.
     
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  7. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just a point of clarity, Tim Howard was not part of the halftime discussion during the Wolves game. It was Rebecca Lowe and Robbie Mustoe.

    (I only point this out because somebody, somewhere, would likely say "He's an American, he doesn't know what he's talking about" if they thought the comments were attributed to Howard)
     
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  8. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Was talking specifically about the Wolves case.. Sorry I used the wrong their. Does it make sense to you now?

    Urr this makes no sense. And for the record there is no "risk" in a closed league. That's the whole point of them and why they are so attractive to investors.

    Love when you say "they"

    But I will engage with the last part which is YES 100% for me. If winning the USL meant promotion to MLS than it sure as hell would mean more. That is truth at least for me.

    It's not subjective. One system has one goal (winning the title) another has two (winning the title and not getting relegated). One is more than two.
     
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  9. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To be fair I am not a huge fan of any of them although I do think Howard is the worst of the lot. Probably my own bias against the Evertonian/Manc as much anything.

    I actually thought that Kyle Martino was the best of the lot. He talked about actual like, tactics, and didn't just fall back on cliché's about wanting it more. My own suspicion is he felt like he needed to work harder because he didn't have the accent or the Premier League pedigree, and I think it showed.

    To go completely on a rant I actually think the punditry from English ex pro's is generally pretty poor. Just full of clichés and what passes for tactical analysis is usually extremely broad perceptions of how they think a team plays.

    Pundit A: "So Liverpool will try and use their high press to win this match"

    Every Liverpool supporter screaming at the TV: "We haven't been a regular high pressing side since 17/18!"

    Now announcers are a different thing. I actually think do prefer British announcers. But its not the accent, it's the lifetime of watching soccer and the latent knowledge they possess. (sorry Fox and Gus Johnson it's not possible to learn a new sport in two years).
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think there's a Rapids fan out there that doesn't love Richard Fleming as our pbp guy, especially considering the disasters of Americans who knew nothing about the sport that came before him. There was a 10(?) year gap between Marc Stout, who's a Denver local and who at least understands the game, and Fleming coming over from England and taking the job that was just excruciating. One infamous line from one of them "A red card, now that means he's ejected right?". I don't know how Marcelo Balboa didn't throttle the guys he was teamed with in that time.
     
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  11. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That does change the statement, yes.

    Well, there is ... it just isn't the same risk.
    Pretty sure contraction or "teams disappearing" is bandied about in this discussion.

    Well, "they" is a collective term for those in this conversation that have brought up these points. A bit pedantic to type out their names every time.

    And that's the thing, we differ. It is a subjective process. The circle of opinion goes round and round. Winning the World Series forever etches the Nationals as Champions and the top team of baseball, period. It is in the record book forever and they are Champions, end of. Derby gaining promotion only guaranteed them money (which the Nationals also got for winning the WS). They in turn became a laughing stock and went right back down. In the end which was more meaningful and/or mattered more? We have different answers.

    I don't see that as being more meaningful ... You believe that one system's goal is more meaningful than the other's. I don't. Also, not everyone agrees that it is more meaningful for say San Antonio to win the USL and get promoted to MLS than if San Antonio was already in MLS, made the playoffs, and won the MLS CUP. The meaning you attach to those scenarios is different than what I attach to them and neither of us is wrong. That's subjectivity.
     
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  12. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's correct. If half the clubs won all of their games = 1140 points. 10x38x3
     
  13. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    #29488 M, Feb 11, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2021
    Mustoe is just about ok as a pundit. I shouldn't criticize Lowe on the basis of who her husband is, but I will anyway... Paul Buckle is a complete idiot with a sordid track record of coaching lower league teams in England. Robbie Earle is flippin' excellent and Tim Howard is good as well. Kyle Martino was the best; not sure why he's no longer with NBC?
     
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  14. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The risk is fundamentally different. The risk of a closed league is the risk that any business is taking on, and not involved with the on field product.

    And actually this whole response is kind of weird. One of the purposes, and frankly the appeal of a closed system is the mitigation of risk. So why argue "but we have risk too"?

    It's not subjective because you are arguing two different things. Derby being promoted is not analogous to the Nationals winning the World Series. Derby winning the Championship (or might have been the 1st division then) is like Albuquerque winning the Pacific Coast League (minor league baseball). That's the comparison.

    And yes I think it's pretty self evident that Derby winning the Championship and thus being promoted to the Premier League is more meaningful, more important, more interesting, and creates more jeopardy over the season, than Albuquerque winning the PCL and well getting a nice trophy.

    Now if Albuquerque is playing for promotion to the Majors, well then you are right it's subjective. But they aren't so it's not.
     
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  15. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Generally agree with this, although nobody is as bad as the ESPNFC guys. Jeebus they are the ultimate example of "don't let logic or facts get in the way of two Scotsmen arguing."
     
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  16. Chesco United

    Chesco United Member+

    DC United
    Jun 24, 2001
    Chester County, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Buckle has a sordid record of coaching in the lower divisions in the US.
     
  17. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wait, is not the product of the Dallas Cowboys, the on field product? Without it that business isn't a thing, no? What the on field product does directly effects and is the cause of the ups/downs/etc of the business ...

    Substantially mitigating the risk or eliminating possibilities inherent in other models of doing the same business isn't getting rid of risk entirely (that's impossible in business). It's a fallacy to say that there isn't risk in running a sports club simply because relegation is not a part of the set up they operate in.

    I made the comparison because Derby qualified for the playoffs and then won promotion through them. The Nationals qualified for the playoffs and won the World Series title through them. One playoff qualification and results is viewed as more meaningful by some people while the other is to other people.
     
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  18. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    I see he also had 13 clubs during his 17-year playing career. The term "dressing room poison" could well be applicable to him.
     
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  19. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Covid were to force the NFL to contract next year the Cowboys, regardless of how abject they have been lately, will not be contracted. As a matter of fact, on field performance would play very little to no impact on what fan base would lose their team.

    You are restating exactly what I said.

    For the Millionth time I don't care about the playoff non playoff debate. The whole point is that Derby got to win promotion to a higher league. That brought more value, importance, jeopardy, to their season and the playoffs than just trying to win a lower division title.
     
  20. Chesco United

    Chesco United Member+

    DC United
    Jun 24, 2001
    Chester County, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    I prefer South American announcers. The rhythm of their voice helps build tension.
     
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  21. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    Chesco United repped this.
  22. Correct if you assume one club wins all it's 38 matches, the second one wins 2 matches less, the 3d wins 4 less etc.
    The minimum points available are when all matches end in a draw, so 380 matches = 380 points.
    24 matches have been played now, so that leaves 14 matches to come, in total 140.
    So only 1 club can win all 14 remaining matches etc.
    The max wins left are 56. So that leaves 84 draws to complete the competition.
     
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  23. Expansion Franchise

    Chattanooga FC
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    Going back City’s mathematical safety, they’re presently 4 points from it.
     
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  24. Crawleybus

    Crawleybus Member+

    Oct 18, 2013
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    That will depend on the last round of results, I think they're safe already.
     
  25. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm breathing a sigh of relief after 13 teams in the English National League voted to continue the season.

    The National League North and South voted to cancel theirs.

    Bottom place Dover, whose season had been blighted by Covid, may concede all remaining games and may have all their results scratched, which would be great as they beat us in October.
     
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