2021 Breakout Youngster

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by Patrick167, Dec 11, 2020.

  1. sXeWesley

    sXeWesley Member+

    Jun 18, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://fbref.com/en/stathead/playe...0-2021&player_id6=8d78e732&p6yrfrom=2020-2021

    So another favorable comparison towards Hoppe? Sargent has a dreadful -1.5 G vs XG per 90 and Hoppe has a ridiculous +2.7 G vs XG per 90, which obviously is the more accurate measure of composure. Contrary to popular belief there isn't any perceptible difference in their ancillary statistics (very small sample size for Hoppe obviously), receiving is a slight advantage to Sarge (both good though), Arial stats above average for both, etc. For example some might be surprised to learn that Hoppe's passing % is slightly higher this season, etc. Josh does seam to be a lot better on the dribble though. One other oddity is that Hoppe's interceptions per 90 is off the charts like his goals, again small sample size.

    I really don't like denigrating one player to elevate another and I want all of our dudes to be awesome and I thing Sargent and Hoppe are both fantastic by our standards. I just think if we are going to evaluate them like this we should try to be as complete as possible.
     
  2. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    We now have multiple strikers prospects in the top 5 leagues. I couldn't be happier. Sargent, Hoppe, Balogun, Weah. That is a good list.
     
  3. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I will say that many statisticians will argue that you using such a small sample to measure composure is likely to lead to fallacies. It's pretty surprising that all the players you listed all exceed their xG this year because that typically isn't the case.

    Composure in itself isn't really well defined, but you can't take the difference between G and xG to mean composure. xG is the chance the ball goes when you look at the time the striker makes contact with the ball, and so much of what we consider composure happens before that point. Differences between xG and G has more to do with average shot quality and statistical variation that actual finishing ability, and even finishing ability, if defined as your ability to do better than other players with the same setup at the time of ball striking, has very little effect overall on your overall efficacy as a striker.

    xG is a good stat. G-xG is misleading. Most players, including the greats hover right around their xG. It's much more important to just look at xG, and to understand that most of those who are outperforming xG will regress (like Hoppe will).

    If I told you this is the greatest goalscorer of all time, would you tell me that he has average composure based on his G-xG?
    Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 7.14.21 PM.png
     
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  4. Mt Stone@

    Mt Stone@ Member

    Apr 30, 2016
    USA
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    This is what the greats have. A super human ability to slow time down. Also, Hoppe looks extremely hungry. Just watch how badly the best strikers in the world want that next goal. Its like their life depends on it, just go watch how badly Haaland or Lewondowski want that next goal. I get that feeling from Hoppe too.
     
  5. sXeWesley

    sXeWesley Member+

    Jun 18, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thats fair and I overstated it saying that was the measure of composure full stop. On the other hand as is obvious from your best striker ever and the comparisons in my other link like Kane, Lewa, etc, XG is not simply what your teammates provide the striker, but is a measure of the strikers ability to find those chances, from that perspective it’s favorable to Hoppe again.

    Regardless I like both players and these stats are helpful, but limited imo.
     
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  6. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    I agree. He can go full speed and then at the final moment, he can calm everything down. This last goal, many would have just poked it towards net just happy to have gotten a boot to it. He actually, calmly chips it.
     
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  7. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
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  8. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I can see Musah dropping to #25 now that he is not a starter anymore.
     
  9. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    There is an incredible number of games. 18 yo's never had to play so much ever at these levels too. Just having teenagers in top squads is pretty new, at least in the quantity we see them.

    It stands to reason that young players know less about their body, are not practiced in recovery during high intensity periods, that teams are not used to dealing with young kids in senior sides playing 8 games in 5 weeks.

    All that is to say, when a player is on the bench for a run, they are probably just exhausted. There are still a ton of games to go and everyone will be back out there.

    Plus, in the long run, whether Musah plays this weekend is not that important and if he is not playing, that is another weekend closer to a cap tying game where maybe England doesn't see how good he is. Go Foden! Go Mount! Musah who?
     
  10. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I actually like it that he is coming off the bench and that he is now rated at #25. Why? because it means we will probably get the kid to commit to us.
     
  11. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Respectively, Reyna and Musah already have 1197 and 1162 minutes. Those numbers are too big for 18 y/o's at this point in the euro-season. It's good to see both now seeing some bench time.
     
  12. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    Correct, gotta ease the teenagers into pro minutes. These clubs know they are looking at millions.
     
  13. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    People always say this, but the reason always seems to be some Englishism like "Because they'll start to drop off on form" on some other saying that doesn't actually mean anything. I wonder what the actual reason is.

    They often make it seem like they'll wear down physically, but an 18 year old should have much more energy than a 30 year old. If it were me managing, I'd not play the kids all the time because I'd want them to remain motivated to get on the field, but it's also based on the correct reinforcement/punishment when the time comes.
     
  14. RossD

    RossD Member+

    Aug 17, 2013
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    It's not about energy, it's about their body not being as strong as someone who's 5-10 years older then they are. Their bodies are still growing and that means the soft tissues -muscles, ligaments, and tendons, are not as strong as someone's whose body has stopped growing. The body isn't used to the strain of this many minutes and can break down. We don't want that.
     
  15. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    The growth plates aren't always fully fused until they are 19. Also, you can't know the full potential and load that a young man can sustain until you do a careful exploration of their physical limits. Kids at this level are closely monitored and if there are signs of stress then coaches back off a little.
     
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  16. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #166 Clint Eastwood, Feb 8, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2021
    Reyna in particular has talked about this. There's a big difference between being in a squad at a big Euro club, and then being a week-in and week-out starter with all of the different competitions, etc. Last year Reyna played a total of 408 first team minutes between all competitions. This season he's already at 1886 minutes across all competitions. Frankly, I think its the mental exhaustion that's difficult for youngsters when they make this transition into being first team regulars.

    And by the way, this is with minimal international duty in 2020 on top of the club game.

    Gio Reyna reveals he had never been 'so physically and mentally exhausted' before Dortmund's mini-winter break
    https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/gio...-so-physically-and/1nt2dkb38lzhh11xi8wc3t6wwl
     
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  17. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Kids have more 'energy' but they lack veterans' experience in managing their bodies and minds across the demands of full professional seasons. In American sports, that lack of experience is exemplified in the 'rookie wall' that young players run up against.
     
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  18. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    Yep... they often overextend in small bursts and accumulate nagging injuries.

    Heck, even wearing your cleats too long at practice on hard surfaces can cause nagging injuries for unaware kids. Ask people who play in Texas about Plantar Fascitis.
     
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  19. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
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  20. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    Hoppe definitely off to the fast start. He looks lively out there, no doubt. Terrible team that is heading down and he might go with them for a year. Not terrible for his career, but not great for winning this award.

    USMNT action is going to be big with this award this year. I have a feeling many guys will be where Hoppe is and it will be how they break into the NT that separates the winner from the non-winners.

    If Richards establishes himself at Hoffenheim, and Berhalter gives him a chance, he could be starting for the USMNT this Fall. Not sure if he would go back to Bayern or get another loan. But he will probably be starting somewhere at a level that is hard to ignore.

    Those are the two front runners with Ledezma getting hurt. Lots of time and guys like Dike, McKenzie and Aaronson could also easily make an impact.
     
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  21. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    A lot of our possibilities have dropped back. De la Fuente isn't playing. Llanez isn't playing. Otasowie rarely plays. Soto has moved to Norwich and is playing with their U23s. Mendez doesn't play after an injury. Ledezma is out. We can keep going.

    Its actually a great thing that Hoppe burst on the scene, or we'd be looking at the last few months as uninspiring in Europe with regards to new guys breaking thru.

    There were a ton of MLS kids breaking thru in 2020. Too many to list. Reynolds was the most shocking ascension. I expect just as many in 2021. The lack of U17 and U20 games for over a year now means that a lot of those kids are only known to the hardcore youth watchers.
     
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  22. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's Richards by a lot right now if he continues to play and if he plays in the fall often. I think it'd be hard for anyone to catch him if that happens.
     
  23. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What kind of long term impact should we expect from the lack of u17 and U20?
     
  24. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    With European clubs snagging up US youth left and right it seems like things will be different but not necessarily worse.
     
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  25. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    From a developmental point of view? Nothing. I think 99.5% of development happens at clubs. The senior USMNT has brought in some of the elite kids in that group. Now, for some kids there have been long shutdowns in academy and reserve games. That hurts more. And not just in the US. On the youth forums they've been talking about long layoffs in major youth soccer hot-spots. California in particular.]

    The lack of U17/U20 camps sure seems to have hurt in terms of the recruiting of dual nationals. Mexico has been having camps all along, and been very busy calling in US-based players. The three homegrowns from LAFC alone have all just been in Mexico camp (Torres, Duenas, Leone).

    But its not that big of a deal. Without any cap-tying events, those players won't even be provisionally cap-tied to Mexico. We can circle back around to them if we're interested. Its just sorta a lost recruiting opportunity.
     
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