then move to Australia and New Zealand then loser. There’s no MAGA there for you to blame your fear on
Not if it's voluntary and takes a year or more to vaccinate everyone, no. If it was universal and we did war production where we did 300m people in 6 months, you could get near herd. If you fart around and let people make a stupid decision, yes, we are stuck. But you will see a lot of western governments who want to come out better are not even going to permit the choice. More pointedly, what is the rational basis for the choice? "I don't want to?" OK, you're not a doctor, nurse, or public facing employee anymore. I get, let people pick which vaccine they want. I do not get, let people personally choose to leave the rest of us in pandemic hell, because they hate government or can't trust a vaccine that ends their death risk. You do get that behind the 95% number is also, like no one dies except for maybe one little old lady who has an allergic reaction? And the virus goes that much more away. The 95% number is "gets actual covid." Behind that is like maybe a couple people need hospital and pretty much no one dies. Maybe someone needs to explain to the GOP the actual dynamics behind the "herd" sh*t they espoused. That the more people the virus finds who are infected or vaccinated, the less and less places it has to go. That if enough people are vaccinated the R-0 goes below 1, ie, there is fewer than one average person for an infected person to get sick. If fewer than one gets sick, the virus stops. This is what you espoused, DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND HOW IT WORKS? I know that the virus would keep mutating but if fewer are sick it mutates slower and the process of antibody escape slows as well. You mention flu but flu is also something we allow to spread like crazy and make no effort to stop. If you just let the virus run wild, like now, yeah, it will not just sicken but also mutate its way out of prison. Leave it to the GOP to act like the flu should be the model after acting like it was some flawed way of Obama operating. Make up your freaking politics-obsessed minds.
It's funny listening to you make fun of the Oz equivalent of last year's MLS bubble, which is inherently intended to weed out the sick so the well can complete the competition.
Yeah I forgot weren’t you going to boycott that because it was unsafe? Where did all your principles go? Q
You are in pandemic hell because you let yourself become part of pandemic hell. the rest of us are out there getting back to normal. There is literally nothing I am doing today that is any different than what I would have done one year ago except for I have to wear a mask when I walk in a few places. Went to work, went out to lunch with co-workers, kids sporting event tonight.
It case anyone reading has missed the latest insight from both the medical front and scholastic front regarding our kids over this past year. The impact of COVID has had on our nation's youth is just beginning to be understood. Some speaking that the fallout might be something new to many to understand and look to heal. I mean recall when young, how much as a kid your routine, the bust stop gathering, getting to see your friends, lunch room laughter and so on, how all this meant to you and for your personal well being. Mind, body and spirit ya know. Then it is ripped away. Glad to know our kiddos are getting their routines back.
"Pretend" libertarianism https://www.thedailybeast.com/iowa-...or-to-speak?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition So "masks" are a freedom issue but if you show up to legislatures in jeans that's normative. You'd think health measures went above mere etiquette. Health measures are 20x more objectively justifiable than the circularity of "we dress up because we dress up." Why? "Because it's a solemn occasion." OK, so what about masks, that would be taking the occasion seriously in a health way. "But that's taking away my freedom....." So much horsesh*t that in justification terms basically telescopes back down to "Trump said......" And Trump is an idiot who bankrupts casinos and who can't even figure out the pandemic is the one time you SHOULD close the effing borders.
We barely test and likely miss many asymptomatic people. Many asymptomatic people are kids. Ergo I am sure we are missing plenty of infected kids. The guidance on schools last year was stovepiped from the mental health wing of CDC over the objections of the infectious disease wing of the CDC. Basically that it was more important kids weren't depressed than whatever role they play in spread. The people stovepiping that "Iraq intelligence" over the disease fighter consensus were Trump appointees. Trump wanted pro attendance guidelines, he got tough ones from CDC, his appointees hushed them and went and found the mental health experts to make their case. Mental health experts aren't trained epidemiologists or virologists or even necessarily MDs. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/politics/white-house-cdc-coronavirus-schools.html As I understand it, the studies leaned upon heavily for it being safe were small classes in the summer in foreign countries with low community spread. Like, basically the virus was barely around to start with. That is no comparison to heavy community spread, bigger classes, winter, in a country doing nothing right. Sorry but a lot of the discussion I have heard sounds like junk science relative to what anyone taking as much as epidemiology 101 learns. Epidemiology 101 is schools spread disease like wildfire, and that even if they don't kill kids, they vector it through the rest of the family, who then spreads it to the next and the next. Recall above the question of how many asymptomatic kids got it. If we tested kids once a week, I would consider the BS. We are relying on kids to self diagnose, to know when they might have it even asymptomatic, and to get tested on their own time. We are not contact tracing worth anything, we are not actually tracking A made B sick made C sick. I would buy if Australia said we can't trace something through a school. They do the shoe leather and phone work. I don't buy we have a clue. You also learn in Epidemiology 101 that seasonality is not magic but relates to factual interactions between people. We don't get sick, as Westie said, because "it gets cold," we get sick because as the year progresses people change behaviors which place them in contact. People return to school. People gather for the holidays. People stay inside when it gets cold. If you look at the curves, the initial curve was the virus hitting the state, we lockdown, drops back off. We loosen back up and start to gather again, goes up late summer. Mask order, goes back down. Send kids back to school, starts going up. We're going to pretend schools did nothing but the curve was going up in October and early November. People gather for the holidays and the number accelerates. The number is going back down a little because the holidays are done. However we are well above the end of the summer numbers still. FWIW the epidemiologist on Meet the Press said the new UK/S. Africa variant wave will show up in the numbers in 6-14 weeks. At our rate of vaccination we will make modest inroads on cutting that off -- and to be blunt that is increasingly Joe's cross to bear and not just a retroactive complaint. I don't know if his level of urgency is much better. If you want to stop this you need to build out Pfizer and such and do it in months, and basically be able to do everyone in a few months. Otherwise this will just antibody escape and we'll need new vaccines. This thing is so predictable and it is agonizing to listen to people make stupid decision after stupid decision that just makes it worse. How many times were we told the winter would be bad. And yet we run headlong into it.
I have to word this right because I wish you all well and no one ill, but GOP tend to make such comments in the first or second quarter with much of the game to be played still. Donald said such things, got sick enough he was oxygenated and helicoptered a few miles, but then right back to calling it a hoax. And that's not even getting into the Manaus reinfection issue, ie, an area that did a horrific covid job, got almost everyone infected, should have natural herd immunity, but is suffering reinfections. Is antibody memory that short? Coronaviruses are known for "months" of immunity, not years or a life. Has the virus mutated out of Wuhan era antibody awareness? Maybe. Manaus is the GOP policy theory. Manaus is not working. In 1918 most of the deaths were YEAR TWO. This was why the "flu comparisons" drove me nuts out of the gate. This thing just started and you're running victory laps? Wait and see how it evolves. The GOP also seems unaware most of the damage on covid is done by a few spreaders. The GOP doesn't want full contact tracing, which would be intrusive. There is a "guy" or "gal" who comes and gets you sick. You wear the masks etc. because you will not necessarily see them coming. Right up until you have a problem risk behavior will seem fine. You can make fun of me all you want but I have seen percentages of deaths vs hospitalizations for people with my condition and it is no joking matter. I do not want to take even low levels of risk that would create a high probability of complications if I win the lottery. So my idea of fun now is riding my bike in the neighborhood at night. I am content. I would just like it if the dunderheads around me chose to speed up this process. I am not the one spreading this sh*t around to make abstracted points about freedom, or just be lazy. And even those with less inherent risk should consider dialing back their victory laps a little until it's actually over. Until it's over you don't know if this doesn't get more nasty, more infectious, more deadly. Beyond that, there is not going to be some clear dividing line, it's going to be masks and vaccines for a few years until the numbers justify going back to normal. This may be a low level thing for a bit. Even if you get a vaccine, it's 95% effective, not 100%. You can relax a little, but those are not absolute odds, and if the virus has mutated....... Last point, the GOP has evolved away from steady moralizing stingy 9-2 banker types -- greedy and moralizing but at least living their values -- in the direction of stock market speculators, who have, shall we say, a different idea of risk. The black swans y'all pretend aren't going to happen, 1986, 2008, now --- routinely happen on your watch. Reagan underestimated the markets but was not punished. Bush underestimated Iraq and Afghanistan, and then the markets on the way out. Trump underestimated covid and is now out of office. The GOP is a little off on their risk assessments. The GOP is a cheerleader for processes where one can easily roll snakeeyes. I will make my own risk calls.
go stay in Pandemic Hell I guess. I’ll go out to a nice Italian restaurant in your place on Friday night. For someone allegedly so smart you buy into all sorts of lockdowns and virus eradication techniques that haven’t worked anywhere but blame it on the execution not the concept. It’s probably more weather-related than anything: https://www.studyfinds.org/weather-impact-covid-19-spread/
Your kids theory has already been proven wrong by the last 6 months of in-person school. propaganda from months ago is no longer relevant. This isn’t even a credible fear anymore - except for doomers
The global covid death toll is 2.3m. That’s half of Houston. I think we’ll hit 600k this year which is the 1918 flu estimate.
I am curious where you think the millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of dead this fall and winter came from. Magic? The lack of intellectual curiosity of the GOP rank and file amazes me. Finding a helpful study among the many warnings may be a get out of jail card when we chase officials down later. One study is not equal to scientific truth. Again, we do not contact trace so we can bullsh*t about what causes it. To be clear, some local schools have had outbreaks and been temporarily closed. It’s a fib to suggest that has not happened. There are only so many reasons case loads explode and I find it laughable to act like cases take off on their own. We are not having mass gatherings, sports crowds, music festivals. There are only so many places we allow people to gather. Schools. Churches. Holiday get togethers. Use your freaking noodle why the numbers took off.
To be clear — if you remember — in many ISDs we waited 6 weeks into October to shift from distance and reopen schools. Look at the curves for when the numbers went up. Duh.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/ to get an idea of what it is like on another covid planet where the virus is so rare they are holding press conferences about a single person testing positive. “bob got sick.”. and trying to sort out how bob over here relates to the 6 cases at this other hotel, or not. all we do is basically run a counter. and it ticks up every few seconds. compared to that we’re a joke.
Oh, so now it’s the schools? I thought it was anti-mask Trump supporters? Or the bars? Make up your loser doomer mind about what inapplicable theory you want to apply today. look, go be a Doomer loser, hide in your closet in a hazmat suit and order groceries from Amazon. But you’re swimming upstream here, companies are starting to ramp back up people in offices and saying it’s been long enough. Schools expanding what they are allowing for activities, No one listening to the doomers anymore (and Trump gone so the political games with the virus are ending)
so move to Australia. Or better, New Zealand. No one here cares anymore. Maybe you can establish a Doomer loser exile community there!!!!!
Uh Oh @juvechelsea , may not ever get enough vaccines for this: https://news.trust.org/item/20210204102538-eo787
Please don't take this the wrong way, because I know it's just a forum, but seriously people like you are why I own guns. If you and yours ever took power, well I can't imagine. You don't force anyone to do shit. What's next, we need to implant a GPS tracker on you, its for "public health". We need to inspect your house, public health and all. You ideas are very, very bad.
Same, went with some of my fellow teachers to a Rockets game last week. Been going out to eat, basically back to normal.
what people don't get is if you don't sick or vaccine to the herd level -- specific thresholds -- then the R-0 stays above 1 and the anti vaxxers literally keep the virus in play. ironically, the intended symbolism of "herd" immunity is the bulk of us who do vaccinate protects the few who cannot. but if we don't get to herd it's actually y'all holding this back. 90.4% of people have taken MMR. if the diseases M, M, or R try to come back, 9.6% of people are unvaccinated. the virus has to find the first 1 in 10 dice roll to get anyone sick. the virus to find another person has to be brought to another 1 in 10 unvaccinated. another 1 in 10. another 1 in 10. this is hard to do which is why you rarely see it outside of large communities holding common anti vaxxer beliefs. the virus just has nowhere to go. ergo you rarely hear about measles anymore, and usually then only in anti vaxxer niches. antivaxxer crap basically magically provides the new homes. if 1/3 of us refuse, and then maybe 1/5 of them got sick earlier, that's a good 28% of the country to play with. that will put you below herd and you will still have the virus to deal with. you want to pretend you get the science and are skeptical, well, i am skeptical of that kind of self serving stupidity. and there is this odd concern about side effects but not what the virus looks like if you get sick, which is the real trade off. kind of like if you want to put a bet on smallpox or polio, you can test out how nasty that is if it ever manifests and calls your bet. i get "your rights" within your house. you want to smoke and drink yourself to death within your walls, fine. if you want to go out in public, or worse, have a job in health or interacting with others, it ceases to be your choice alone. you don't get to come to work and smoke and give me lung cancer. you don't get to turn a private right to drink into a right to drive drunk and crash into the rest of us. you don't get to say no to masks and vaccines and everything and risk everybody else who behaves themselves. and, sorry, that is common sense in a democracy, it does not turn this into china or the USSR or nazi germany. to be clear, the initial antivaxxer paper was long ago withdrawn by the author who was charged with fraud later on. the current manifestation seems to do some mix of combining ignorance of his fate with science denial. the science denial poses as skepticism but refuses to be convinced by standard notions of scientific evidence. this is also true in other areas like global warming where anyone who runs year to year numbers see it's hotter, and even the most conservative of meteorology schools like TAMU buy it. or elections where someone can get his a$$ kicked by 70 electoral votes, millions of popular votes, lose almost every court case, and we're going to pretend he secretly won somehow, despite being an awful track record president who numbers show pi$$ed off his base bad enough that senators routinely got more votes than he did -- which almost never happens -- people instead often vote president then go home.
to be more punchy, the sort of "freedom" white conservatives seem to like these days is antistability freedom, the right to a gun, the right to avoid vaccines, the right to ignore the government laws, the right to invade the capitol on conspiracy theories after the mechanisms of law denied your arguments. i fail to see how you are any more societally positive than the stereotypical BLM or black drug dealer your ilk often beefs about. you want freedom to be violent and ignore the law. the only difference is the specific cultural manifestation.
government being able to tell you what to do is called the freaking RULE OF LAW. when you suggest that can be nullified with a gun you're saying you don't have to play by the common rules. as i just said above, IMO the only difference between people with that attitude and those in prison is enforcement and politics. to be clear, i hope the gun comment towards me wasn't a personal threat. i am not going to put up with people who think mentioning gun possession gives them a right to alter my ability to speak or live as i see fit. conservatives are not going to be allowed to turn their court-packed "right" -- not recognized by the supreme court until 2008 after twisting the laws and lobbying for decades -- into a basis to implicitly menace and bully the rest of us. i will have to the police or the courts or the mods people who cannot keep their gun talk within legal and other norm limits. are we clear??
the "doomer" stuff is funny. i just pointed you to discussion of a society back to normal with a tiny death toll. you implicitly back our massive death toll then call me the doomer. do you not get we should be doing it their way in which case it GOES BACK TO NORMAL? i mean all y'all's goofy "but i take risks and act like it's normal at peak covid" is basically saying ignore the dead pile. you're not doomers because you're not paying attention. it is not doomer to point at the countries and their measures where it goes back to normal. that's actually optimism about humanity -- if it behaved. y'all are the ones saying we're effed ergo just quit and take your lumps in public. that's a quitter attitude to me and i don't get how on any planet that's more positive other than an ostrich isn't seeing the horror. i mean, your general attitude is the soccer team is screwed, the virus is screwed.....these are all fixable things. we used to be champion. we used to fill the stadia. there is nothing inherent about empty seats. it reflects a choice. there are other soccer teams in the same league under the same rules who win the title. we were better attended than columbus last year, who won this year. there are other countries that do the virus better -- and their economies are more stable. how is that doomer to point out? see, over there they have "blue sky and sun." i would like that. you apparently prefer theoretical "freedom" to live under a thundercloud and suggesting something else is your idea of hell. and to be clear you're the one who always both moans about how this team runs and yet defends its MBA logic for doing so. i then don't get why you're not touting this team as the pinnacle of property owners managing their asset to extract cash at the revenue and expense levels they find comfortable. yay capitalism. yay feudalism. yay private property. we're not a grocery store, who buys a sports team to put no further money in and watch it finish last while merely paying the debts and payroll and waiting for a period of time to flip the asset?