I think she makes some good points. Like its all about turnout, which is all about grass roots, and will require longitudinal high quality digital campaigns. The GOP don't just show up 3 months before the election with their content. They run that stuff every day of the year. But also - we need to look at the data before jumping in with the "but digital" takes
Nevada Biden +20,137 +22,657 Arizona Biden +39,769 +39,400 +39,070 +36,835 +29,861 Georgia (going to recount) Biden +1,546 4,184 +4,155 +4,041 +4,020 Penn Biden +14,716 +14,501 +15,044 +19,491 +21,749, +28,777 +28,333
Plouffe's podcast on Thursday has the high quality hot takes if that spins your wheels Some thoughts from him 1. It's very unclear what happened right now, and might take months to work out 2. Strategists on both sides (Plouffe, Wilson etc) always feared Trump would turn out his base plus some more. (Wilson always joked a Dem needs to be +10 in Florida to win). 3. The idea that it would be a blowout was not taken that seriously in the campaigns - which is why O'Malley Dillon focussed the schwerpunkt of the Biden campaign on the tipping point states, instead of running off to TX. But at the same time, the state of the race forced Trump to defend on a very broad line - that may have been decisive when you consider he could not hold all of it - likely coughing up AZ and GA in addition to the blue wall states. 4. The economy appears to have been the key issue (duh!) and many voters continued to believe Trump was better at it. This may be tied up in his unique celebrity brand which is difficult to replicate. 5. The gigantic GOP turnout gave Biden a huge mountain to climb - yet he did it where it mattered. Especially turnout in key counties reflects the polling. 6. Maintaining or bettering this turnout will be key in future presidential races - which means long term organising. But will Dems now go back to sleep? 7. The long term trajectory of states like Texas is clear (16, 18, 20) which is why the work of the Betos and Abrams matters so much. If you don't do the work years in advance, you don't bring those states into play 8. Florida is a worry, but its not clear if Trump is a special factor there. Clearly needs huge Dem investment in grass roots.
Truly unbelievable how in Wisconsin 100,000 consecutive ballots counted all went to Biden. There's no way. What a fraud. Are you guys happy with that?
Actually, I'm glad the vote totals are razor-thin close in 4 states. Can you imagine the pressure election officials would feel if it were only 1 state involved? As it is, Trump and his legal team have to file lawsuits/complaints in more than just one place. I can see how the argument in court plays out.... Judge: Next case is Donald J. Trump vs. (name of election official, state, county, or municipality). Attorney for the Plaintiff, what's your complaint? Trump Attorney: We believe there was massive voter fraud perpetrated here in (name of state, county or municipality). Judge: (To election official): How does the defendant respond to that? Election Official (or their attorney): Your honor, there is no evidence from our jurisdiction of any voter fraud occurring at any level of the electoral process. Judge: (To Trump attorney): What evidence do you have to support your claim? Trump Attorney: Well, your honor, we don't have evidence to present, but we just know fraud has been committed, because there's no way a person called "Sleepy Joe" could be beating someone as immensely popular as our client. Judge: (Bangs down gavel). Dismissed...next case!
Something else Plouffe speculated about, which Silver also commented on There is some suggestion that voters are still attracted to the tenets of Trumpism, but not Trump
I have a sneaking suspicion that you pulled this allegation out of your asshole. Here's your opportunity to prove me wrong.
Breaking news: White supremacists overwhelmingly support white supremacy; don't really care who voice of white supremacy is.
I haven't listened to either of the people you're referring to lately, but that basic argument makes sense to me, because Trump himself ignored some of the central tenets of Trumpism in this election. Like, I didn't hear a thing about immigration or guns, I heard very little about trade. It was all grievance, all the time, and it was largely incomprehensible to people outside the right-wing media bubble.
AZ is down to 20k lead for Biden. Not sure how much of those 120/170k votes are left. By my calculations if 2 batches were dropped, that'd be 120k counted if the drops were the same size of the ones from yesterday.
Pretty sure this has been debunked... Once again, the Dems suck at rigging elections given that they left Turtle and LadyG in office...
I call bullshit. Sure there is pressure, but with the way the polls went and how much of a cluster they were in many places, it is clear that while the remaining votes seem to favor Dems (even of we don't win NC), they are going to be cautious so they don't look like fools if suddenly they have to change their call. Besides, there will be recounts in 3 of the 4, if not all 4 of the Biden-winning states. So, as a responsible new organization, caution is the better option. Because 4 years from now, if they get it wrong, it will be remembered. If they get it right early, it will be forgotten. So, while both campaigns are probably lobbying the media, their fear of Individual One is bullshit (after all, have places like WaPo, or even CNN, shown fear of Individual One?).