PBP: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump :: The Election That Just Won’t End Thread :: [R]

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, Nov 2, 2020.

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  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    I think she makes some good points.

    Like its all about turnout, which is all about grass roots, and will require longitudinal high quality digital campaigns. The GOP don't just show up 3 months before the election with their content. They run that stuff every day of the year.

    But also - we need to look at the data before jumping in with the "but digital" takes
     
  2. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Networks will call states when Associated Press call them.
     
  3. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Biden up 28,833 in PA.
     
  4. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nevada Biden +20,137 +22,657
    Arizona Biden +39,769 +39,400 +39,070 +36,835 +29,861
    Georgia (going to recount) Biden +1,546 4,184 +4,155 +4,041 +4,020
    Penn Biden +14,716 +14,501 +15,044 +19,491 +21,749, +28,777 +28,333
     
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  5. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Plouffe's podcast on Thursday has the high quality hot takes if that spins your wheels

    Some thoughts from him

    1. It's very unclear what happened right now, and might take months to work out

    2. Strategists on both sides (Plouffe, Wilson etc) always feared Trump would turn out his base plus some more. (Wilson always joked a Dem needs to be +10 in Florida to win).

    3. The idea that it would be a blowout was not taken that seriously in the campaigns - which is why O'Malley Dillon focussed the schwerpunkt of the Biden campaign on the tipping point states, instead of running off to TX. But at the same time, the state of the race forced Trump to defend on a very broad line - that may have been decisive when you consider he could not hold all of it - likely coughing up AZ and GA in addition to the blue wall states.

    4. The economy appears to have been the key issue (duh!) and many voters continued to believe Trump was better at it. This may be tied up in his unique celebrity brand which is difficult to replicate.

    5. The gigantic GOP turnout gave Biden a huge mountain to climb - yet he did it where it mattered. Especially turnout in key counties reflects the polling.

    6. Maintaining or bettering this turnout will be key in future presidential races - which means long term organising. But will Dems now go back to sleep?

    7. The long term trajectory of states like Texas is clear (16, 18, 20) which is why the work of the Betos and Abrams matters so much. If you don't do the work years in advance, you don't bring those states into play

    8. Florida is a worry, but its not clear if Trump is a special factor there. Clearly needs huge Dem investment in grass roots.
     
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  6. Rosay

    Rosay Member+

    May 7, 2014
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Truly unbelievable how in Wisconsin 100,000 consecutive ballots counted all went to Biden. There's no way.

    What a fraud.

    Are you guys happy with that?
     
  7. SetPeace

    SetPeace Member+

    Jun 22, 2004
    SC Illinois
    Club:
    Torquay United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, I'm glad the vote totals are razor-thin close in 4 states. Can you imagine the pressure election officials would feel if it were only 1 state involved? As it is, Trump and his legal team have to file lawsuits/complaints in more than just one place. I can see how the argument in court plays out....

    Judge: Next case is Donald J. Trump vs. (name of election official, state, county, or municipality). Attorney for the Plaintiff, what's your complaint?
    Trump Attorney: We believe there was massive voter fraud perpetrated here in (name of state, county or municipality).
    Judge: (To election official): How does the defendant respond to that?
    Election Official (or their attorney): Your honor, there is no evidence from our jurisdiction of any voter fraud occurring at any level of the electoral process.
    Judge: (To Trump attorney): What evidence do you have to support your claim?
    Trump Attorney: Well, your honor, we don't have evidence to present, but we just know fraud has been committed, because there's no way a person called "Sleepy Joe" could be beating someone as immensely popular as our client.
    Judge: (Bangs down gavel). Dismissed...next case!
     
  8. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    My first quick scan was "lawyers".
     
  9. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    The AP called Arizona days ago and the only network that followed suit was Fox.
     
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  10. Prawn Sandwich

    Oct 1, 2003
    Bhutan
    Yup, ecstatic
     
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  11. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Something else Plouffe speculated about, which Silver also commented on

    There is some suggestion that voters are still attracted to the tenets of Trumpism, but not Trump
     
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  12. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    I have a sneaking suspicion that you pulled this allegation out of your asshole. Here's your opportunity to prove me wrong.
     
  13. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    Some people are best left in the Senate.
     
  14. KensingtonSC

    KensingtonSC Still Lazy After All These Years

    FC Vaduz / Philadelphia Union
    Jan 7, 2010
    Andalusia, PA
    Club:
    FC Vaduz
    Breaking news: White supremacists overwhelmingly support white supremacy; don't really care who voice of white supremacy is.
     
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  15. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Interesting thread on polling errors

    1325102940063981569 is not a valid tweet id
     
  16. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I haven't listened to either of the people you're referring to lately, but that basic argument makes sense to me, because Trump himself ignored some of the central tenets of Trumpism in this election.

    Like, I didn't hear a thing about immigration or guns, I heard very little about trade. It was all grievance, all the time, and it was largely incomprehensible to people outside the right-wing media bubble.
     
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  17. espola

    espola Member+

    Feb 12, 2006
    "Tonight on 60 Minutes..."
     
  18. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Trump chipping away at AZ. Down to 20,600. 97% of vote.
     
  19. diablodelsol

    diablodelsol Member+

    Jan 10, 2001
    New Jersey
    Nah. Someone placed it in his asshole
     
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  20. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    AZ is down to 20k lead for Biden. Not sure how much of those 120/170k votes are left. By my calculations if 2 batches were dropped, that'd be 120k counted if the drops were the same size of the ones from yesterday.
     
  21. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Pretty sure this has been debunked...

    Once again, the Dems suck at rigging elections given that they left Turtle and LadyG in office...
     
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  22. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I call bullshit. Sure there is pressure, but with the way the polls went and how much of a cluster they were in many places, it is clear that while the remaining votes seem to favor Dems (even of we don't win NC), they are going to be cautious so they don't look like fools if suddenly they have to change their call. Besides, there will be recounts in 3 of the 4, if not all 4 of the Biden-winning states. So, as a responsible new organization, caution is the better option. Because 4 years from now, if they get it wrong, it will be remembered. If they get it right early, it will be forgotten.

    So, while both campaigns are probably lobbying the media, their fear of Individual One is bullshit (after all, have places like WaPo, or even CNN, shown fear of Individual One?).
     
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  23. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    CNN calls it pres elect
     
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  24. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Source/link?

    Frankly, yes.
     
  25. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    CNN call it. Biden.
     
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