Virginia 2020

HoosPlace writeup: https://hoosplace.com/2020/10/04/uncategorized/2166/

Sending the Hurricanes Back to Miami

A winless Miami team, one that had yet to score a goal on the year, came to Charlottesville to take on what looked at times like Virginia’s second team. Diana Ordonez did not play; neither did first-off-the-bench Ashlynn Serepca and Laney Rouse. Would Miami be able snag an upset?

Virginia 3
Miami 0

In a word, no. Miami mustered only a single shot and a single corner. This game was over within 4 minutes as the Cavaliers pounced on a pair Miami mistakes and were up 2 – 0 before all of Virginia’s players had even touched the ball.

In the second minute, Miami keeper Tyler Speaks had the ball at her feet, and under no pressure at all, pretty much passed the ball directly to Rebecca Jarrett’s feet 5 yards outside the box. Jarrett’s ensuing shot was deflected, Speaks made a decent save, but knocked the ball down instead of out-of-bounds, and Anna Sumpter hit the ball into the roof of the net.

A minute later, Sumpter sprung Jarrett behind the Miami line, Jarrett crossed the ball, but before it could get to Jarrett’s target, Lacey McCormack, a Miami’s Selena Fortich whiffed on the ball, it scuffed to McCormack and she slotted it home.

Game. Set. Match. All that was left was for Virginia to run out the clock. For 85 minutes. And to try and rack up some style points in terms of a gaudy blowout win. The NCAA announced this weekend that the spring soccer tournament is going to feature only 48 teams. 31 of the slots will go to automatic qualifiers, leaving only 17 at-large slots. It’s going to be a very tight bubble. I’m not sure how many teams the ACC will ultimately get, but it wouldn’t surprise me if only 3 teams make it and the first two are going to be North Carolina and Florida State. Louisville, Notre Dame and Clemson have all started off the season hotter than the Cavaliers. We lost to Clemson and we won’t have the opportunity to knock off Notre Dame for ourselves. An at-large selection is largely a popularity contest, so if there was a time to run up the score, this game would have been it.

So, by that measure, the game was a bit of a disappointment, and after the 2-goal blitz, a bit of a let-down. Virginia is clearly better than Miami, and it’s not like we gave up, or even worse, lost focus. We just didn’t make an NCAA-tournament kind of statement.

The biggest “success” of the game was that no one was injured on the field, and given the injury toll this year, this is huge. But there were still a couple omissions: Diana Ordonez didn’t play, and is Coach Steve Swanson’s wont, there was no explanation. Laney Rouse, who started in place of Samar Guidry for two games, did not play either, and for the second straight game, Ashlynn Serepca didn’t feature either. I scanned the bench as best I could, which is hard because the cameras are behind the team, but it looked like a thin bench for Swanson. Maybe in this pandemic season, players who are not going to feature are not on the sidelines, but it was hard to tell who was available. And of course, they’re all wearing masks.

Swanson continued to give players their first playing time, this time Maggie Fralin and Peyton Goldthwaite were the recipients. I have commented positively on two other newcomers in past weeks, and they haven’t seen the pitch since, so I will NOT comment on the play of one freshman who impressed me with her two-footedness. I want to see more of her.

McCormack scored her goal as the center forward deputizing for Ordonez, but Swanson must have confidence in her; for the second game in a row, when Lizzie Sieracki has needed a break, it has been McCormack who slotted in at the back line. Pretty good for a midfielder.

Guidry returned to the starting lineup and showed no hesitation, and no ill effects, from her two-game stint on the disabled list. Lia Godfrey has already established that she is a gem, and she delivered the cross to Jarrett, following a nifty double-turn in the box (a la Alexa Spaanstra), delivering the ball perfectly to Jarrett’s feet. Jarrett gave the keeper no chance and the game finished at 3 – 0. Alyssa Gorzak had her finest game of the season, logging 68 minutes, which I think is a three-season high for her.



After two games at home against ACC bottom-dwellers, Virginia reverses course this week, going on the road to face the #1 ranked Tar Heels. This game fits in the style-points category as the game is a non-conference game. The ACC schedule makers have not given us a UVa v UNC conference game in three years, so I’m glad that the respective schools were able to add this additional game. UNC has defeated Clemson and Duke, the two schools who are the blemishes on UVa’s record. So, by the transitive property of sports results, UNC should be the favored team. Game time is 8pm, Thursday, October 8th. Virginia needs a statement win, and after last year’s ACC final, henceforth known as the Brianna Pinto game, Virginia should have all the motivation she needs.

 

No argument there. But looking at a proposed NCAA tournament with only 17 at-large bids, well, the difference in the Duke result is huge. As you've said, you shouldn't have to rely on the ref to get you your points, and we had many other chances. Virginia's got the talent, to be sure. And injuries matter, and travel as well, but you gotta win the games in front of you. I'm concerned that Virginia is going to have to play their way into the NCAAs with the ACC tournament. Which is OK, lots of teams have to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAAs. It's just not a pressure we've had to live with, given the long term success and track record of the program.

 

Well, this is where the stats and the eye-test both agree. Her double-turn on her assist on Jarrett's goal was sublime.

Now, Pitt and Miami ceded way too much space to her, I will enjoy seeing how UNC plays her, and then, how Lia responds.

 

Too true. We'll check back in two years before making any hyperbolic comparisons.

Well, I wouldn't be playing a 4 - 3 - 3. It's just not a formation that I'm comfortable with, so if I'm just lining players up on paper, I'd start a 4 - 4 - 2:



As you know, I really, really want Spaanstra to be able to play that AM role, but I don't think she's strong enough. I think she's a wide player.

Gorzak is playing better this year, but she's not a winger. I think both her and Serepca would feature better as part of a 2-man line than in the 4 - 3 - 3.

But if I'm opining on lineup knowing full well that Swanson is probably going to stick with a 4 - 3 - 3, this is what I would go with:



In any event, I think I would prefer to see Jarrett on the left. She is more naturally turning the ball in at the edge of the penalty box, and I would prefer to have the ball on her right foot.

How would you line them up?

 

Well, UVa vs UNC is postponed. I dunno if any of this is coming from the UNC side, but we have too many injuries. Plus, given the absence of some players who don't seem injured, I have to presume we have some COVID quarantining going on.

 

Polls like this are prone to a unique combination of both recency and confirmation bias. If a team makes it to #1 in the poll, it's going to stay #1 until it loses. Last year's Virginia team was an example of this. It climbed to top spot and then had two immediate draws, and they still kept the #1 spot. It is also much easier to stay in the top 25 than get into it. If Clemson were to drop out of the top 15 after this last week, it would have meant that maybe the voters were wrong last week as to how good they were.

And as we've learned already, coaches are no better than anyone else in contributing to a poll that has any predictive value at all as to the how the teams will end up. Remember last year's All-ACC team featuring only two defenders?

And I'm waiting for how you would line up Virginia.

 

Well, let's go with the assumption that we want to win the game. Are there games that you don't think the objective is to win?

So, the next two games are vs Louisville and Florida State. In the absence of injuries, how would you want to line against those two teams?

 

Virginia's game on Thursday has not been cancelled yet. It was on Tuesday of last week that the Thursday UVa v UNC was cancelled, so if we make it through today, I'm hoping both games are a go.