The "Corona" Season

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobb...vid-19-waivers-in-absence-of-liability-shield

"“In many states, the waivers are going to be unenforceable. Different states have different enforcement standards and even within a state, there will be different enforcement for different activities,” Witt said (John Witt, a professor at Yale Law School) "

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/06...rs-protect-businesses-from-covid-19-lawsuits/

"Whether such waivers will actually protect businesses from lawsuits or not is an open question. Laws vary state to state."

 

It would be if they caught it when they reported, quarantined and eliminated it from their campus.

 

I mean you see what’s going on at LSU (30) and Kansas state (20+) football players testing positive, these kids don’t even know they have it... just going to be interesting going forward. My father works in a power 5 athletics dept, and there is not really a way of avoiding it, they are just trying to deal with it. Once there is enough cases, they are going to have to shut those teams down, and its not that they want to, it’s because of guidelines. So we very well could see some schools not playing this Fall and some schools having no problem fielding women’s soccer teams. The big ticket questions, is when football doesn’t play because of cases... how will it effect other sports? Or the campus? And what I hear from my dad, is that if football doesn’t play, no sports will... so it really could be a crazy situation come august. The only silver lining is that these athletes are being tested early, so they have time to isolate and get back with the team. So later positive test will be the undoing for some schools, and eventually the women’s soccer programs effected.

 

I thought it was supposed to go away in April.

 

I’m so impressed with the hurdles the schools are going over to develop a plan and protocols to make sports happen. I mean this is unprecedented and I do think admin and staff care about the kids well being and are doing their best to provide a safe environment.
And I sure hope I’m wrong. BUT I just don’t see how this can happen. I mean let’s say by August 3rd a team is clear of all Covid positive tests.
how will 25 players plus staff go 3 months without a positive? And if a kid tests positive then what? The whole team sits out two weeks? Forfeits?
what if soccer is clear but w vball has 5 positives in September? Does the whole athletic dept shut down for 2 weeks? I mean the liability these schools are taking on is massive.

my only solution is shut it down which.....is incomprehensible.
OR just open up and play. A positive Covid test is treated like a positive flu test. A kid stays home if they are sick. Can play with a fever if they feel up to it. Basically act like it’s the flu (which I know it isn’t. I know. But if you look at hospitalization rate and death rate for young adults...it is the flu.) And kids get strep, the flu, a cold, mono etc every year on teams. And the staff and trainers do a good job of limiting it.
I don’t know. I just don’t see how we can play and also treat covid19 as leprosy.

I’m not trolling or being an ass or downplaying Covid at all. Just trying to work it out.

 

Maybe we should think of it this way:

I am a first-year college student at the beginning of my freshman year. I am going to take a lab course in chemistry, about which I know absolutely nothing because I did not take chemistry in high school. What is the right attitude for me to have?

(1) I will have an open mind about how chemistry works.

(2) I will take different lab actions to see what happens.

(3) I will record what I am observing as accurately as I can.

(4) I will collect a good sample of data based on my actions and observations and will see what the data suggest about how chemistry works.

(5) I will do this over and over and, without resistance, will let the results of each experiment adjust my beliefs about how chemistry works.
​

Eventually, if I persist at this long enough, I will know how chemistry works.

This is about where we are with the Coronavirus, except that we start with what epidemiologists already know generally about viruses and pandemics -- but we also know that what they know does not necessarily apply exactly to this virus so we have a whole lot to learn. And, in terms of how to begin athletics in college in the midst of this pandemic, it is almost exactly where we are. We are just beginning our first day in the lab.

 

For the vast majority of young people, it would seem Covid is not even the flu, as they have no symptoms and no inkling that they have anything. I don't know the percentage of kids that actually have symptoms, but it seems pretty tiny. Seems to me that any kid that tests positive sits out for two weeks and everybody else carries on. I mean, I just can't see shutting anything down for months more because someone (people) tests positive, unless there is a serious outbreak and people are getting sick. People are going to test positive for many months, I"m sure. The biggest challenge for colleges generally (academics, sports) and maybe every organization is what to do with older employees who have existing health issues and might be vulnerable. One solution might be to reassign any who work/job puts them into contact with lots of young people. That is a bit problematic when it comes to old professors, I suppose. Increaingly, I'm finding it difficult to freak out about this thing any more. Maybe I've got irresponsible in my desire for some sports action!

 

Patriot League teams are not to play any non-conference games until September 4. That is 2 weeks and a day after the August 20 starting date for games.

 

I imagine we wont see schedule releases for a while. I feel for these coaches. I bet their schedules have had to change about 15 times already with more to come.

 

Yes, that is very significant.

Bowdoin is a member of the New England Small College Athletic Association. The NESCAC, along with the UAA, are arguably the top D3 conferences for women's soccer. Bowdoin is not quite at the same level as Williams, Middlebury, Amherst, or even Tufts, but they're a respectable side. It will be interesting to see what the other members of the conference decide to do.

Of all of the D3 conferences that I am anticipating the most to see what unfolds, it would be the University Athletic Association. The UAA is close to being a national conference with members Brandeis in Waltham, MA (just west of Boston), Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh, Case Western Reserve in Cleveland, Emory in Atlanta, NYU, U of Chicago, Rochester in NY, and Washington University in St. Louis. These schools are all academic heavy-hitters with endowments in the billions of dollars. As Eddie K mentioned that some of the "small privates will have the resources and reputation to go without sports", the UAA schools definitely are situated to weather a long storm.

I have heard various rumors that since the UAA is such a geographically dispersed conference, that travel is going to be minimized. One way that I had heard that it may be minimized is that some of the schools may become temporary members of conferences within the individual schools' regions for a short-term. From what I have heard this is only one of many options that are being considered.

 

Making a broad statement and then starting the next sentence with "I don't know..." is not a good way to inspire confidence in your opinions.

 

How can you say that about the NBA? If they quarantine those individuals who tested positive and create a bubble with no cases (which I believe is their plan), then there would not 'for sure' be a 2-5% range.

With all due respect, everything you post on the virus is so 'alarming'. You never have anything encouraging to say.

 

And just yesterday the CDC proclaimed that infection rates are 10 times higher than previously thought, judging from antibody results of increased testing. This despite that testing is heavily skewed in this country towards the wealthy and well connected, with top government officials getting 90% of the testing in Washington DC, for instance.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

 

If it sounds alarming, it is because it is alarming. 32 states are seeing increases in cases. The big population centers are going to drive decisions around the country. So take a look at what is happening in California, Texas, and Florida. The 3 most populous states are seeing record numbers of cases. We're going backwards. There's a reason why the recruiting dead period just got extended to August 31. Here in the northeast we dealt with some hard times but then did was expected and now we are on a good path. Other places aren't listening to some health guidelines and that's setting the country back. No surprise that Texas, Houston, LSU, and South Carolina are already having to mass quarantine football. If we don't change the behavior it will be women's soccer too. And you don't quarantine the 1-2 people that have it - after contact tracing you quarantine anyone they came in contact with recently. The Orlando Pride could be playing in the NWSL event if it was just 6 players that had to sit, but that's not the case as it involved anyone they came in contact with which is why their whole team has to drop out. Should be a case study for every women's soccer program to look at on what not to do. I don't see how we are going to make it through the fall without at minimum programs have 14-day interruptions, and in some cases worse than that. We actually have a good case studies of what to do by looking at the northeast, or New Zealand, Iceland, Germany, or South Korea. We as a country are nowhere close. Massive failure of leadership on so many levels which is frustrating as other places have shown this doesn't need to be that difficult.

 

From what I’m hearing from a good source, though based on an extremely limited data set, college female athletes on campuses are testing positive at lower rates than male athletes.

 

I am fully aware that the virus is dangerous. My point was that every time Eddie K posts it is negativity about the virus. There are also encouraging articles/stats too. But those never get posted by him. That was my point. I am personally very conscientious about the virus. I am not downplaying it. But if Eddie went back and reviewed his posts he would see my point. And, there is no sure thing on the NBA. Catching those with the virus early so they can quarantine is the point of testing. Every school and team will likely have some positive tests.

 

Didn’t they just get relegated?

 

Not in the slightest bit shocking. On the other hand, an entire sequestered womens team had to drop out of the NWSL tournament.

I’m in the age group where 11% of the people who test positive die. It focuses your attention on who is wearing masks and who isn’t. Who is practicing social distancing and who hugs indiscriminately.

The differences by age group is pretty stunning, reflecting, I think what mortality group you are in. Players will be in the near zero mortality group. Theat doesn’t hold for the people they will be in contact with, including coaches and staff.

 

In Division 3, The College of New Jersey just announced suspension of the 2020 season for contact sports including football and soccer.

Only a few schedule releases I have seen so far are:

• Utah Valley
• UCSB
• Grambling
• Texas A&M

 

Females in general test positive (and are hospitalized, and die) at lower rates than males in a COVID-19 context so this makes good sense, if true.

just some general thoughts on comments made here:

1) I think it’s foolish to look at case numbers as the only metric. Hospitalizations and deaths are a much more effective tool, because as testing increases, more people are decidedly going to test positive. You’re seeing a younger age demographic tested more frequently and testing positive without the need to be hospitalized, so simply looking at increased cases is not a good enough measure of how serious the issue is. For example, the death rate is down 10% this week, and fewer people have died this Thursday and Friday than any Thursday and Friday since March...so there’s positive. Also, people panicking over Florida, while they’re still having fewer deaths than NY/NJ. HOWEVER, the next two weeks are critical. Deaths lag positive cases and hospitalizations by a week or two, so while some are celebrating deaths being down now and some are panicking over cases being up, we won’t really have a good grasp of it for a week or two. I think it’s fair to be concerned in places where hospitalizations are up, I think there’s slightly less to worry about where solely cases are up. I know there’s a big correlation, but in one southern state, cases were up 148%!!! But hospitalizations were up around 14% and deaths less than 2%. But in Texas, hospitalizations are up at a much more drastic rate, and there’s good reason for concern.
Here’s what doesn’t make sense, to me, and also illustrates the randomness of the virus:
Cases in CA that shutdown everything early and buttoned up are now surging again, whereas other places impacted early are coming down and seem under control. Georgia, who took flack for opening up early remains under control but places like Texas and florida aren’t. Sort of baffles me.

let’s also not forget, as stated here, probably at least 10x the number of people that have tested positive actually are of have been positive. At least.

2) all of you guys are correct. It affects college students, on average, very minimally. In Florida, 15-24 year olds account for 15% of cases, but just 2% of hospitalizations and only 4 of the states 3,327 deaths (as of earlier this week).
But, imagine if just one NCAA student-athlete at any sport at any level were to be hospitalized because of COVID-19 or even pass away. Seems to me that would be enough to cancel everything, which leaves me feeling like the probability of a full fall sports and woso campaign aren’t super likely. Also what happens when half your team tests positive the week before conference is due to start? Are there forfeits? Are there postponements? Are teams just like the Orlando Pride, simply out of it? What if teams don’t want to play other teams that have had players with cases? Man, there’s just so much that still has to be worked out and not that much time to do it.

3. I think you’ll see more schools, especially those without football, cancel on campus class in the fall, as well as cancel or suspend sports. The liability that falls on athletic departments is going to be huge, and some will not be willing to take on that risk. It has already started at the d3 and juco levels and I anticipate it to continue in the next month, but we will see. Football is the driving factor here. 4+ billion dollar industry, it almost has to happen in some form or fashion at some point, woso maybe not.

4. The media sucks, and politicians, too. Both sides. The over-politicization of this crisis is crappy. No news source provides context. Many fear monger. Some with good reason, and some without. Just sucks that we can’t trust the media on a public health basis. For example, plenty of blame on Trump and administrations and I agree that it’s deserved. But the death rate in our country is also lower than the UK, Italy, France, Belgium, even Sweden! Again, the amount of deaths we’ve had and will have is significant and blame is deserved, but to act like we’ve performed SO much worse than every country on the planet just isn’t true, at least at this point.

5. I hope you all stay well and safe, and that at some point there’s a college woso season. For now, we have the NWSL, at least!