PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Have you?

 

No, my dignity repels them.

 

Racist douchebag King loses primary.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elec...wa-primary/ar-BB14V8l2?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds

 

Couldn't happen to a worse racist douchebag.

Of course, it greatly decreases any chance of the seat flipping, but defeating racism and racists is more important than flipping a seat.

 

I’m happy to see Ella Jones elected as Ferguson’s mayor.

Sorry if this is too off topic.

 

Is it really a change tho? The new guy's campaign strategy was based mostly on King losing all his committee positions and that King didn't support Trump hard enough on the wall... The main difference between King and the guy that beat him is that the new guy isn't stupid enough to say white nationalism isn't a bad thing...

 

I did not say it was a "change."

It terms of being important, I would say Yes and No.

Yes, as in getting one of the most open and notorious racists out of Congress is a positive.

No, since it really does not move the national discussion that much, except for saying that words have consequences (say racist things, lose power; loss power, lose your job)

I only read about the opponent last night and I am not really impressed.

 

I wonder if Scholten could still pull off a surprise in November. He only lost by 3 percent in 2018, and while Feenstra might be considerably less abrasive than King was, maybe Iowa's 4th District is trending more purple than we might think? Probably wishful thinking on my part. Also from Iowa, it would be sweet to see Joni Ernst get her comeuppance for supporting someone like Donald Trump after admitting that she too has been a victim of sexual abuse. More hypocrisy from Republicans...imagine that!

 

That would be beautiful.
Ernst has to go back to castrating them pigs.

 

Only Dem chance is if King runs as a 3rd party candidate.

 

Or a great depression, another 100-200 thousand dead from a pandemic, ongoing social unrest, and a schism within the Republican Party as elites like a former Secretary of Defense write broadsides attacking the president.

That could do it.

 

Am I wasting $$ donating to Jamie Harrison?

 

Not enough polling. Only one poll in the last 3 months according to 538 and that poll is funded by Daily Kos...

 

To add to Yoshou's point, in polling vacuums or uncertainty, go with historical averages.

 

Ok, threw some at him.

Thanks! Although Brummie, I think is being pessimistic here.

 

No I am not pessimistic or optimistic. We don't have polling data. In lieu of polling data, what would any good Bayesian do? They would develop a prior based on other evidence. Our other evidence is previous history of US Senate elections in South Carolina.

Since 1990 (when Dave Leip's election atlas runs dry), Democrats have averaged (in order from 1990-present):

(32.52 + 50.07 + 43.99 + 52.68 + 44.19 + 44.10 + 42.25 + 27.65 + 38.78 + 36.93) = 41.32% of the vote.

So if I were a bettor, I would say "Republicans will win easily."

 

In the Civiqs poll funded by Daily Kos, Harrison is tied with Graham and Trump is a lead weight around every Republicans neck right now.

 

I get that, and if the race is close then in the next month or two -- long before the election -- other polls will verify Civiqs. But George W. Bush was a lead weight around Democrats in 2008 and Graham improved on his 2002 performance by 2pp.

South Carolina has a lot of things going against it right now. Its urban population is 66.3% as of 2010 -- of the recognized swing states, only Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina have lower urbanization, while Wisconsin, the next-most urbanized state, is 4pp more urbanized. Its white population votes overwhelmingly Republican and it is rated a relatively inelastic state by FiveThirtyEight.

@Boandlkramer , you want to donate to a Senate race that looks long-shot but probably isn't? Based on previous electoral history, elasticity, and urbanism, I would put money in Kansas.

(26.39 + 31.03 + 34.44 + 31.59 + 0 + 27.57 + 36.46 + 26.38 + 42.53* + 32.24)/10 = 28.86. That sounds absolutely terrible.

However, Kansas is a relatively elastic state and its urban population is 74% of the state, about as urban as Michigan or Georgia. Moreover, unlike Graham, the incumbency advantage isn't there with the open race. AND, unlike South Carolina, Kansas employs a lot of people exposed to Trump's trade wars.



Indeed, Trump's approval ratings in Kansas have been far below that of South Carolina.





And all of that polling took place before March 2020 -- when Morning Consult inexplicably decided to stop doing a poll (people are at home -- what else are they gonna do).

Kansas is my long-shot race for this cycle. $100 there will go farther than $150 in South Carolina, IMO.

EDIT: Oh, and Wikipedia shows there has been a fair amount of polling done in 2019 and 2020 on both Kansas and South Carolina. In no race does the Democrat win in South Carolina, but in Kansas, the Democrat leads in 4/9 against two different challengers.

EDIT EDIT: AND, In the battle for downballot races, Kansas > South Carolina. Both SC and Kansas have GOP majorities in the state legislatures, but Kansas' has a supermajority. Democrats need to pick up just three KS House seats to stop a supermajority, or 3 seats in the KS Senate. In SC, Democrats need 18 SC House seats or 4 SC Senate seats to get a majority. Interestingly, SC and KS have roughly the same number of legislators...cool trivia.

In the battle for Congress, a strong KS Dem in the Senate could help push KS-2 over the line, whereas in SC your money would go only to propping up Cunningham, who would likely eke out another win in a wave election if Trump continues to be an albatross.

 

Montana with Steve Bullock is a good bet and worth supporting too.

 

That may be the dumbest political ad I have ever seen.....SMH.

NEW AD: @CaptMarkKelly's company took money from a firm that is an arm of the Chinese Communist Party. He is beholden to China and Arizonans can't trust him. #AZSen #AZpolitics pic.twitter.com/jKrCInu8OY

— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) June 9, 2020

 

In Georgia, a QAnon believer easily came in 1st the GOP primary in a very red district. However, she still has to win the runoff.

 

Is that the one who believes that the Deep State has the ability to put voices in our head?

In the olden days of 2015, she'd be on the corner wearing a sandwich board.

 

Maybe. She also believes in some conspiracy about the LV mass shooting.

 

Trump doesn't want you to know I'm leading his puppet David Perdue 47-45 in the most recent poll.

No doubt he'll be in GA soon to tout the Trump-Perdue record of plague & recession.

Donate to support my campaign: https://t.co/Vcl2qtUx3v

Also, you can @ me next time, Donald https://t.co/WECQWTU9XI

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) June 11, 2020

I like this.