NSR: Coronavirus: A global Pandemic.

I will hereby concede that Fox is better than North Korean state television.

Not sure about OANN.

 

Fauci confirms NY Times report Trump rebuffed social distancing advice
Health adviser says on CNN ‘you could logically say if you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives’

 

Yeah that one would be close. But since OANN hasn't yet reported on Trump shooting 18 for 18 holes, I gotta give it the credibility edge.

 

Of course Trump did....the only reason Fauci still has a job today is because its prime time for the pandemic....Fauci will be gone once the dust settles

 

My particular store could switch to appointment only.

Also, for the record, the final national chain store in our mall just relocated elsewhere, so we literally have thousands of parking spaces.

 

Okay, we're talking past one another. You're talking about your particular case, and I'm talking about the "on average" situation.

 

Was this intentional?

Mike Leavitt is kinda sensible. However, he's in on the take too. Getting boat-loads of money for his access to political decision-making and decision-makers. Good quote, but he'd be as fearless as Gen. Mattis in condemning any Republican malfeasance.

 

I'm a big fan; but I've never seen them (or any of Robert Fripp's other Projekts (sic) ) live because they're way too expensive.

 

Well some of the risk factors that make the top of the list other than high age are obesity, high blood pressure and other coronary diseases and diabetes. All things where the US is #1 or close to #1 in the world. So their at risk population might be higher than one would think at first glance.

 

Um. Yeah. Baseball and elections and mortality and divorce and car accidents and someone hitting free throws and almost anything behaves probabilistically. The mechanics of how probabilities are assigned or are changed may be different, but at the end of the day an x% chance is an x% chance

I find the assumption that they don’t behave probabilistically to be indicative of someone who doesn’t understand probability as much as he/she thinks.

 

U.S. death figures down sharply today, after being down less sharply yesterday. That is great. On the other hand, the leading indicator of serious/critical cases keeps rising, so this seems more like a lull than having reached the true peak. Still, there's no question that the growth rate is leveling. Social distancing is doing its thing.

 

Not its nightly personalities who get all the ratings. About on par with NK.

 

In fairness, Fox News has a solid news division, with the likes of Chris Wallace and for a time, Shep Smith a while back. Problem is, it's the Fox and Friends, Hannity, Ingraham, Dobbs, Carlson (who always looks like he's constipated) and Jenanine Pirro (who is probably upset she hasn't groped a waiter in weeks) and the opinion shows that are their star. The other issue is it's Murdoch being Murdoch, as any Liverpool fan will tell you.

That said, Fox is not very high on my list of news sources compared to others. But I also don't watch cable news unless I absolutely have to or if I need background noise.

 

Perhaps it was me substituting "stochastically" with "probabalistically", which is common. So, oops, I'm sorry.

However, the broader point is that you're comparing very unlike things, one of which relies on skill rather than randomness, another on completely human decisions about preferences and treating them similarly. Let's leave aside that baseball, over the long term, doesn't allow for a range of success in batting over about 35%, and that is exceptionally good; while elections in this particular nation, at the national level - if we're only looking at popular votes - overwhelmingly settle into a band between .4 and .6.

 

Winds blow in all sorts of directions here when we talk about risk. One part is risk of infection. The other part is risk of death once infected. Health conditions play into the latter. As does the quality of health care/resources available. The former us all sorts of things: household size, the nature of public life in an area (including density), occupational risks (and those of householders), transportation options, etc.

I’m not sure we can measure risk without considering both factors. A healthy person could have a 10% chance of infection, and a 1% chance of ending up in a vent if they do. An unhealthy person in living in isolation may have a .2% chance of infection, 50% chance of ventilation if infected. They both have the same cumulative odds of tying up a ventilator.

 

BTW:

30,003 new cases Saturday.
25,568 so far Sunday.

This is now 9 days since the high set last Saturday.

 

My brother still has that.

 

Yep. Fox is a talk show, with news as the warm-up act.

The right would be a lot better informed if it were addicted to an actual news outlet. For all the complaints that the right makes about Fake News! the fact is that most WaPo and NYT readers buy those papers for the news coverage, not for the Op-Ed sections.

 

Some good news from Canada. We have a company in Vancouver planning to start human trials in July on a new anti body drug treatment.

Its sounding promising.

 

just be aware there has been a lull pretty much every weekend for whatever reason. The big indicator will be Tuesday where, previously, there has been a spike to a new plateau.

 

We've already spanned a week on the new cases front. At what point is the weekend over? A week and two days ago?

I would expect deaths to mirror the new case behavior 1-2 weeks later.

 

For the first time, ABC News tonight went through the timeline on the Trump response, which I figure it got from the NYT and WaPo. Devastating. This guy was sitting on multiple reports from earlier dates than first reported, and those reports urged stricter steps and more action than was first reported. I don't see how a neutral could argue that he handled the situation well, or even adequately.

 

I know about the weekend lull. I hadn't realized the Tuesday spike, though. It's interesting going through the data. Some states like NY send what appear to be highly reliable numbers. Others are wacked. Georgia was 100 one day, 12 deaths the next. Try running a random simulation where that occurs! Florida is similar. Texas claims to barely have any cases at all. It sure looks to this independent observer as if there are different reporting standards among the states, sometimes very different.