NSR: Coronavirus: A global Pandemic.

[QUOTE="Walia Ibex, post: 38624520, member: 340542]
If Covid19 sadly claims 60-70k deaths this is no different than seasonal flu and we have overreacted.[/QUOTE]

But doctor, you said that if I got surgery and went through months of chemotherapy the cancer might go into remission. After completing the chemotherapy and going through months of nausea, lack of energy, and generally feeling like crap, you are now saying my cancer is in remission... why the hell did I go through with the surgery and chemotherapy???

 

These are decent points. Also at play is the fact that we will likely never really know how much "improvement" we can attribute to what is, quite frankly, a mostly-voluntarily-adhered-to, non-standard set of policies, even in countries that have stricter "lockdowns" than we do. Yesterday was the first day in 4 weeks that I did not go outside at all to take a walk, and that's because there was 2 inches of snow on the ground after an extended period of spring. That just kills the motivation. And I live in a state that has been among the strictest (though there is plenty of evidence that there is significant defiance AS WELL AS compliance all around).

Walia, for the defense of him I just gave, has an enormous blind spot that you pointed out nicely. I hope EVERYONE learns from that.

 

I agree that people do not understand probability. They do not understand numbers near zero or near one. They do not understand very small or very large numbers.

I do. You do. But I don't think you're coming across terribly clearly and seem to have edged close to making an argument for me that I never made.

Neither baseball nor elections behave probabalistically. I find the suggestion that they do to be rather curious.

 

We could, if the excess deaths from the reaction to it are sufficiently high. Thing is, we may never know that answer.

 

I believe at least a part of Yoshu's post.

 

Good reasoning and take mate. Look at Sweden response they have foregone worldwide social distancing measures asures and are doing relatively well. Yes social distancing has mitigated the numbers here and I agree with that. But I vehemently disagree that this was a apolyaltic virus that was going to kill millions and we needed to shutdown our economy for 12-18 months as a response.

The fact that our number of deaths will be be way less than expected should be celebrated and that this better safe than sorry approach was alright but not the only option.

 

Sweden was faring pretty badly the last time I checked.

 

That's another comparison you cannot logically make. Where is COVID-19 killing a lot of people in the U.S., and where is it not? There are multiple factors in this; but one big one is population density. This is not surprising: the number of daily interpersonal interactions scales like the square of the population density, so diseases spread by interaction spread geometrically more rapidly in high density areas. The population density of Stockholm, Sweden's largest city, is still only 1/6 that of New York City. Furthermore, there are social aspects that, compared to the United States, limit the spread of disease there: 40% of Swedish households are single-person households without children, for instance. And yet, even so, in the last several days the data in Sweden has started to look worse.

But as near as I can tell, you are basing this view on your gut. Which is fine; of course you're allowed to do that. But it's not a good basis for making decisions.

 

If Covid19 claims only a similar number of deaths with that of the common flu, with these measures in place, what do think the Covid19 death rate would have been without them in place?

 

Sweden has the 13th highest number of deaths globally.

Their deaths per number of cases is over 9% because they're not testing enough people.

 

I disagree. There is ALWAYS room to learn from past actions. Always.

 

The bold is worth remembering.

The population density argument is also very much worth considering when discussing efficacy or not of particular policies.

 

I don't know where I disagree with these words here.

What I disagree with is the sentiment that it is "meaningless to second-guess". That's absolute bunk.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Projected deaths went from 2.5 million, 1 million than 100-250k now 60k-70k. Our peak is today by June we are down to 0 deaths! If 3 months of semi voluntary social distancing did that congrats but I doubt it. The Democrats thought this would bring 45 down. By the fall nobody will take Covid19 into account.

I really dislike doomsayers and negative groupthinkers who wished for a longer economic shutdown and bad news overreacting to a pandemic to fan the flames of hysteria for Joe Biden political gain. Now that they are wrong I wonder what else they will Harper on.