I've never said 2 weeks and it'll all be over. I never said it's just a NYC problem. You put words in my mouth.
That has to be data lag. There is no conceivable reason that all-cause mortality (this is measuring literally every death for any reason) would drop 25% from the normal rate.
The only way to test that theory is if we had somebody that created that same plot a year ago. I doubt we can find that. But there are many conceivable reasons. Less traffic = less car accidents = less fatalities Old people SIPing aren't contracting the normal flus at the same rate as previous years and thus fewer are dying from it. Fewer normal flus and all other infectious deceases that combine with existing conditions causing death. Less people going to work = less workplace deaths Less people interactions so less murders. More people taking care of their medical conditions, and more relatives and friends paying attention to them and helping them take care of their medical conditions due to fears of coronavirus. That's just off the top of my head.
I think the latter is more likely (Occam's Razor...) Therefore, I hope to see things improve as the weather does!
Sorry, 2-3 weeks of sheltering in some parts of the country dropping the overall death rate by 25% is absurd on its face.
We don't have people dying every five minutes in NYC, even in a bad flu season. We don't have hospitals running out of supplies. We all have antibodies against regular influenza, and annual immunizations are readily available and affordable -- they don't prevent flu but they minimize its impact. This virus is proving to be far more communicable than flu, most people don't get flu every year, and the odds of getting sick if exposed to this virus range between about 20% and 50%, depending on which numbers you look at. Hot weather (like we don't really get around here) may diminish the incidence, but it is very likely to return in the fall, with a vengeance. That's how viruses mutate: they become more adept at transmitting themselves, if slightly less virulent. As for the theory that lots of people were sick with Covid in January and didn't know it. Mostly wishful thinking, because we would have seen more hospital cases. Looking at the cruise ships as an example, many of those infected were asymptomatic, but a significant percentage did need hospitalization, and they weren't all over 80.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-strains-coronavirus-circling-globe-182338255.html Some good news from this article I think. Looks like the community spread of the virus in the Bay Area is only about 20% of the reported cases. The SIP policy seems to have been done on time to limit spread. About 30% of infected people are in the area’s healthcare network. I imagine they are the most cautious about social distancing so I expect there is less danger of disease spread from them. The last 50% are traced to travelers coming in from out of the area (mostly Washington). I expect that number to become less of a factor now because of awareness and travel restrictions. Basically, the Bay Area looks like they are on track to “flatten the curve”.
This is a rather weak article with not enough data, but, my county, Clark County, Washington, has more or less seen a doubling of cases. I’m pretty sure that the test results are not day to day, but rather what’s reported each day, and some of those tests might be from two, or three, to ten days ago. (As I learned of earlier test data a couple of days back.) The population center here is mostly suburban, with a few more dense pockets, but much of the county is rural. https://www.columbian.com/news/2020...re-than-doubles-covid-19-cases-adds-28-cases/ Although we have SIP orders, I don’t think everyone is respecting that. Go Humans!! - Mark
darn, way beyond my capability to implement. Maybe I could try a tire pump. But thank you for the link!
I went and looked up the major causes of death in the US and heart disease and cancer are responsible for close to 50% of deaths. It's hard to think that either of those would go on hold for social distancing reasons. Accidents were 5.9% and Normal flu was only 1.9%. So even if those were completely eliminated it doesn't account for the drop shown. I'm inclined to believe that this is a case of delayed reporting, rather than the actual deaths.
We facetimed with my son and his girlfriend yesterday. Her parents live in Hong Kong and had been visiting here the last 2 months. They decided it was time to go back. The husband went back first, and the wife followed a few days later, but she arrived after Hong Kong had instituted a 14-day quarantine for anyone coming into the area. They put a bracelet on her, and then when she was in her home, she had to walk all around it so they could map it out and would know if she left it. She is not allowed to leave her home for 14 days. The govt calls her to check in and see how she's doing, and if she needs food or drugs or something, they will deliver it to her. The only flaw in this equation is that the husband is not subject to her 14-day quarantine, even though they are in the home together.
</tldr> This guy compared data in the US vs Italy and China and put a model in the US for the next two weeks. Best case scenario is 2000 people dead in the US every day, worst case is about 8000 a day. In order to get to best case numbers, we have to stay locked down until we can get better data on infections (testing).
Yeah this is so sad. Italy reached over 10,000 deaths yesterday. There were even six people that tested positive at the Vatican although the Pope’s test came out neff he negative.
falvo, I haven't tried reading any Italian sites. Have you seen a Italian government health site or a reliable newspaper that reports Italy's death rate by age, or gender, or pre-existing conditions?
You are wrong, that is normal. In fact, 50% lower than normal. I don't know where you are getting your info, but here is a simple google search with the my source linked. If you have different data, please link it. How many people die in New York every day? In 2015 there were 153,623 That comes to 420.88 a day with heart disease and cancer as leading causes. https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day?share=1 421 per day = 17.5 per hour = 1.46 people every 5 minutes.
The farmers markets are still operating, which seems insane. Most of the people who will die over the next two weeks are already infected. No SIP will help. it's the two weeks after that that we can do something about
From what I have read. Italy has the second largest elderly population in the world, (after Japan). Italy's health care sysytem has actually done a good job over the years keeping older people with pre-existing conditions alive. These people though are in a more fragile state and with the virus it doesn't take much to reach the tipping point where their condition deteriorates and they can't be saved. Avergae age of those who have died is 78.
I went to a farmers market today. It was less crowded than any of the stores I went to on Friday. (And way less crowded than they were two months ago.) They sell essential goods, and by buying directly from the farmer, we're helping them stay in business - a small farmer is not going to be able to get their products into Whole Foods or Safeway.
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27...eated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/ This sounds really, really promising "In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the team found a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74-year old patient still in intensive care unit." This was a follow up study done by the same highly respected doctor in France that reported good results on a smaller study of 36 people. He is now treating all of his patients with this combination because "This is what the Hippocratic Oath that we have taken dictates to us.” If this is effective, then the Nevada and Michigan governors are gravely in error. Those two have expressly PROHIBITED doctors from using this treatment.
Only that a lot of people touch every single piece of fruit/vegetable, hold them up, squeeze them, before making their choices. Much more so than in the grocery store. And all transactions are cash-based, with the same dollar bill passing through dozens of hands every morning. And of course, how do you keep 6' away from people? I belong to a couple of CSAs and am supporting local farmers that way, with weekly boxes. Produce handled by only a couple of people who work there, and they pay sick leave (I checked) without requiring a diagnosis first like WF does. May not be as beautiful as the apple I'd find after pawing over 100 of them but no one here is complaining. And it's better for the farmers because they don't have to throw out all the stuff that was squeezed too much. I rarely buy produce at the grocery myself. Buying from lower growers is more sustainable and overall a better experience.