Expectations for the Hex

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by DHC1, Jan 24, 2020.

  1. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    I would guess that only otasowie and aaronson (whom I irrationally like) will have a chance at a multi-year career at the major league level.

    If you’re over 20 and aren’t absolutely crushing it at a lower level (best XI/all star), the odds are stacked against you. Maybe Holmes is that kind of player but I’m just not sure.
     
  2. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Took Stuart Holden and Geoff Cameron sometime before they were 'crushing it' in MLS. Also took Alejandro Bedoya a while to work his way to Nantes.
     
  3. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    your examples prove the point - it’s quite rare and the odds are stacked against you.

    it is my belief that the game is more competitive now than before as the best teams in the world have dramatically increased global scouting and providing more opportunities for younger players. We don’t see the same interest in prime age players as we do for teenagers.
     
  4. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Odds are also stacked against the youngest players. For them, odds of success are quite rare.

    I'd argue the game is less competitive than it has ever been. Globalization of the sport has seen the majority of football revenues taken up by the top-five, with most of the remainder taken up by the other European leagues. In turn, within each of the top-20 european leagues, the bulk of the revenue is taken up by 5 or so teams. Most leagues are a 1-3 team race with the same 1-3 team teams dominating, year after year. This lack of competitiveness has been frequently commentated on in the media.
    Teenagers are cheaper and plentiful. There's always more interest in them.
     
  5. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    by competitive, I mean for players trying to reach the top leagues not competition between the top teams. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

    wrt teenagers, what’s more important is the dearth of interest in taking a chance with mid 20s players (and maybe even early 20s) who are coming from lesser leagues.
     
  6. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    #206 DHC1, Mar 24, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
    the only recent true success stories we’ve seen are young highly athletic Americans/Canadians going to elite academies/teams as teenagers. These players also were obvious stars in MLS even as teens.

    again, this is not so different from players in AAA baseball - even the best prospects who are excelling don’t make it out but its quite rare (but not impossible) for a multi year minor league player (who doesn’t crush it early on) to make it to the Show for a lengthy career.
     
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  7. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Fewer of the top American players are going to college. Stands to reason there would be fewer mid-career players going to top leagues. MLS has also been offering larger contracts to retain players who might have left in earlier days.
     
  8. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    This is another reason why it is unlikely for minor league American players in their 20s to make the jump to the major leagues.

    maybe Pomykal and/or Cannon will prove the exception
     
  9. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    I'd argue it's the main reason. Soccer in the US is becoming more like soccer in the rest of the world.
     
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  10. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Should also add, I'm referring to players who can contribute to the National Team at a higher level than a Morales. I'm not as interested in whose playing in a top-5.
     
  11. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    those two things should be highly correlated.
     
  12. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    #212 IndividualEleven, Mar 24, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
    I'd take Ike Opara over any other CB, right now. A projected XI for late in the year would be. A little over half the roster would be 'top-5'.


    [​IMG]
     
  13. bostonsoccermdl

    bostonsoccermdl Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 3, 2002
    Denver, CO
    "Crushes" is a big exaggeration., I agree about striker, the rest we on par at worst.

    Our coaching is the main thing holding us back. If that improves, we will be nasty.
     
  14. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The US is well on its way to missing another World Cup.
     
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  15. gunnerfan7

    gunnerfan7 Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 22, 2012
    Santa Cruz, California
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I really like that lineup. I'm wondering whether Long or Robinson could fit in Miazga's spot, but other than that, looks pretty great.

    I'd love to see Bofo get a shot in the NT. He's 10X the attacker that Arriola is.
     
  16. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #216 Clint Eastwood, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
    I don't think so. For the moment, that's pretty far off.

    RIght now the major competitions for the USMNT next year are:

    CONCACAF Nations League (June)
    Gold Cup (July)
    2022 Word Cup Qualification (September)

    And of course we'll have friendlies in the other international windows in the early spring and summer.

    By the way, we likely will also have the CONCACAF U23 Championships (unknown date) and hopefully the Olympics (likely July). We'll also have the CONCACAF U20 Championships (scheduled for May) and hopefully the U20 World Cup (scheduled for July).

    We're going to have to use our full player pool to cover all of these events. The USMNT staff will have a chance to see everybody in one form or another as we approach the critical roster decisions for the Hex in September.

    I don't really understand the negativity folks have around this squad. Our competition isn't lighting the world on fire. Honduras, in particular, has really gone thru a rough patch. Costa Rica has 4 wins in the calendar year 2019: Bermuda, Curacao, Nicaragua, and Jamaica. They've failed to beat anybody halfway good. We just played Jamaica in the Gold Cup semi, and beat them comfortably. The US isn't at its peak. Be we did just make the final of the Gold Cup, and are ranked as the 2nd best team in the region. Anything less than finishing 2nd in the Hex is unacceptable. I realize the negativity is based on experience, but we do have to take a deep breath. We're not "on track" to fail in WCQing. We're on track to do just fine. It won't be easy. Its never easy. But we're on track.
     
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  17. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    I’ll go back to the original post - I think we should expect to win the Hex or at least be vying for it going into the last match. We should give up only 8 goals all throughout the Hex.

    Our best lineup is reasonably comparable to Mexico’s best although they have far more depth than we do and a vastly better coach. If the rivalries thread is any indication, they are brimming with confidence bordering on over-confidence so let’s play them hard and rough and see if we can knock them off their game.

    whatever we do, we shouldn’t get into a possession battle with them and force a build out from the back - that’s f’ing the height of stupidity
     
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  18. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Long hasn't been the same since the transfer denial. Robinson will probably overtake Miazga by next year.

    Bofo can play both wings and is a superior creative attacker. Already has a goal and 2 assists in 7 games worth of minutes.
     
  19. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    I’m all for looking at new options even though the hour is getting a bit late. Could Holmes also man that wing? Is saucedo good defensively?
     
  20. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Every sports league is a copycat league. Teenagers are the "in" thing right now but I predict some team will start using some cheaper overlooked veterans to great success and then a lot of teams will copy them. Everything always cycles.
     
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  21. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    This makes sense but cheap overlooked veterans are different from middle aged minor league veterans who haven't shown the ability to compete in the bigs. This is most clear in how the markets viewed Aaron Long - they clearly weren't able to meet NYRB's price. Given that Red Bulls is a knowledgable European player (and therefore aren't likely to be holding out for an unreasonable sum), my guess is that they were hoping to get major league starter money and weren't able to come close to that.

    When the cycle does swing the other way and veterans are picked up for attractive values, it'll be on a free or very low value transfer so that makes staying in MLS a tougher proposition for those with higher aspirations.

    I think that the sooner that Pomykal and Cannon go, the better.
     
  22. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    The problem for vets is being under contract with MLS. On the spectrum of undervaluing one's own talent to overvaluing one's own talent, MLS/clubs tend to err on the side of the latter. Reggie Cannon at least has a contract that incentivizes FCD/MLS's not overvaluing him in the transfer market. Long looks to be screwed.
     
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  23. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An interesting point may be that they also have two teams in Europe and apparently, unlike Adams, neither is interested in Long. If he's as undervalued as they are claiming wouldn't their in-house teams want him at that cut rate?
     
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  24. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Unless they don't think he's good enough for them. compare to Miazga whom they also let go but he was much younger so Chelsea probably thought that they could train/loan him up in value and then sell or he'd make their first team.
     
  25. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Why would a selling team, like RB Salzburg, want a 27 y/o MLS lifer?
     

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