*Shrugs* as long as they were not in that severe at risk group, (old or underlying problems and don't go around old people I don't see the issue. Live or die I am not going to live in fear, but I probably won't go see my 76 year old mom until this thing passes or I wear a respirator or her protection.
The data from Italy, Spain, and France is showing that 19-44 year olds occupied around 30% of ICU beds. The death rates are lower by far but the consumption of resources to keep them alive is significant. So while your grandma might not get infected another’s grandma dies because you are taking up an ICU bed. Or at least that is the media narrative. I suppose you could look at it through a thining the herd Illuminati satanic ritual to usher in the age of Zule the Eater of Worlds to which this is a good thing for the goat sacrificing rulers of the world.
Everyone is in the at-risk group: you catch the virus and don't get sick, but you pass it on to others who do you are in one of the at-risk groups but you didn't know it because of an undiagnosed pre-existing condition (mostly lungs or heart issues) you catch the virus, get ill and recover, you're still taking up time, energy and resources that others desperately need or will desperately need if you recover, coronaviruses (there's a family of them, of which this is the most infectious) can leave scar tissue the lungs which doesn't go away. Ever. If you're 35 now and that happens, your lung capacity will be diminished but you'll still be breathing reasonably OK for about 30 years, but enjoy spending the next 10 of a much-shortened life hooked up to an oxygen mask, struggling for breath. the idea behind "herd immunity" is that if you're exposed to the virus, you'll then be immune for a year or so, by which time we can get a vaccine developed. The problem is that you may not become immune for that long and you'l catch it again in the autumn when the "second wave" hits and you may be more vulnerable as a result of having been ill with this virus. At the moment, thay have no way of saying that this will or even can happen, but they also have no way of knowing that it won't.
Last point, and by far the most important, if the infection rate - not the getting-sick rate or the death rate, just the infection rate - goes above 1%, all the effectiveness of social distancing is seriously compromised. If it goes above 2%, you may protect yourself but not anyone around you. After 3%, you may as well open the schools and colleges, the bars, restaurants and nightclubs because the thing is loose and you can't affect its rate of transmission at all. In that case, there'll be too much economic damage for too long and for no purpose, and the survivors will be so impoverished that they'll die early from susceptibility to other illnesses. Nope. Not even close, but have a great weekend anyway!
can you walk me through the logic here on the differences between 1-3% infection rate? How does that relate to R0? I thought China instituted draconian measures to great effect in reducing transmission well after it was widely spread. thanks.
As good as we ever were- existence continues to be a terminal illness with only symptomatic relief available.
I suppose we will know in the next couple of months, but this really appears to be more of herd mentality panic than a clear and present danger to anyone other than the high risk groups, who should by all means isolate. This is not Ebola that has a 80% mortality. This has 80% asymptomatic. The whole lockdown thing is about not overwhelming the healthcare system. I mean the whole increase in cases thing is a function of exponentially higher testing rates moreso than things are getting dramatically worse. I am going to live my life as much as I can, and take reasonable precautions. I am not going to judge others for doing them. If they want to go hang out on crowded beaches, that is on them and unless I wanted to go for a walk on an isolated beach then it really does not bother me. It doesn't matter what the infection rate is, if you don't have contact with the outside world you are good to go. If you get a pkg from UPS, unless you are gearing up and then disinfecting it on the porch, opening it outside and disinfecting that then you are risking exposure. Life in a bubble really isn't much of a life IMO. I am much more concerned about hundreds of millions of people using sanitizers and disinfectants not according to instructions creating more strains of MRSA. Just think if some of the really nasty hospital bugs got out of the hospitals and unleashed on society.
I got the numbers from one of my former students, who works at Georgia's equivalent to the CDC (that's the Georgia whose capital is Tbilisi) . I don't understand maths well enough to be able to explain the mechanics of it, but at a full percentage point of the population it's about sheer weight of numbers generating so many multiples of contacts that contact tracing - Where were you over the last 48-72 hours? For how long? What did you do? Who did you meet? etc and then checking those places and the people that were there, and then doing it for the place and people that they met - becomes impossible. Too many infected with too many contacts. What makes this virus so deadly is that while a normal flu virus shows symptoms within about 48 hours, this one averages 5 days of delay and can go up to 14 days! Think of a community of 100 people living an even medium-density environment like the suburbs of a city and one perosn gets the infection but don't get the flu until 5 days later. He's going to bump into a pretty high percentage of that 100 people in the supermarket, the bar, the pizzeria over those five days, and that percentage is going to meet a pretty high percentage over the next five days, and so on. The Chinese quarantined entire cities of 5-10 million people from the wider provinces and forced the provinces into lockdown, with intense social distancing and self-isolation for a several months at an early enough stage that the transmission was disrupted while the suspects and enough of everyone who suspected they might have it were tested and isolated at home, in quarantine or in hospitals. Lacking enough person-to-person contact to incubate it, the virus burnt out sooner and at a lower level. The Italians didn't until a much later stage and the disease took root. The Iranians still haven't done so and they're now digging mass graves.
Of course, take the last post with several grains of salt. I don't work in this field and I'm certainly no expert. Just passing on what I've heard from people who (hopefully) are.
thanks. That makes sense - my take on that is that at 1% or above, it doesn’t make sense to identify who the carriers are and then isolate them because it’s too broadly out there. the only way to stop the spread (lower R0 below 1.0) at that point is to quarantine everyone for at least 14 days and probably longer.... I do think that’s different from just having everyone return to work, school, etc.
From the Guardian today: CFB, the [Bergamo] area’s largest funeral director, has carried out almost 600 burials or cremations since 1 March. “In a normal month we would do about 120,” said Antonio Ricciardi, the president of CFB. “A generation has died in just over two weeks. We’ve never seen anything like this and it just makes you cry.” There are about 80 funeral companies across Bergamo, each receiving dozens of calls an hour. A shortage of coffins as providers struggle to keep up with demand and funeral workers becoming infected with the virus are also hampering preparations. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead Not all of those extra deaths are from Covid-19. Some of them would be people with other illnesses who couldn't get treatment because the brutal logic of triage meant that other critically-ill people got one of the available beds instead. Which is why everyone is at risk, one way or another.
On thing that will have to wait until after this is "under control" is assessing and quantifying the collateral deaths - and the "undocumented" deaths. Apparently one of the things in Italy is a death is only designated a "corona fatality" (ie. patient is tested) is if they die in hospital, but there is anecdotal evidence that deaths in nursing homes have spiked. These would not be "officially" designate corona deaths. I don't know if this is true, but would make sense if hospitals were oversubscribed. This aspect of the cost an epidemic or pandemic - how easily health care services can be overwhelmed - was not given enough attention early in the outbreak.
Of course, everyone is free to do what they want, but if you are in Italy, or Switzerland or Washington State or NYC I'd do everything you can to avoid anything that needs any kind of hospital visit, cause there ain't no room at the inn. The health care system in certain places is clearly being - and/or is about to be - overwhelmed. Many people who do not have the virus will also die. That's how it works. When there are no beds, you don't get help.
Don't go see her at all. Or, before you do, check out the Bergamo Obituaries. (And be sure to tell everyone in contact with her that you are not practicing isolation.) https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...rt-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3 Is it that you don't believe the numbers out of Italy, or that you are ok with level of spike in deaths versus the discomfort of a month or so of self-isolation?
This makes no sense at all. The infection rate can be reduced by social distancing. That's the whole point--the rate of actual infections goes down if there is limited social contact. It is at its theoretical maximum when people are in dense groups, such as audiences in a staged event. Some agent may be highly contagious and fatal, but if nobody is around to be infected, well, you get the point.
https://www.lycos.com/ https://askjeeves.net/ https://archive.org/details/walnutcreekcdrom/ https://www.oocities.org/ https://archive.org/details/tucows/
Apropos of nothing, many, many, many years ago I was scuba diving and there were two young tech bros on the weekend of dives with us, who were traveling the world having just cashed out of Geocities after being single-digit (or very early at least) employee/founders... Thinking back now it feels like they had sold the patent to the cotton gin and gotten on a 3 masted schooner round the cape... Now back to your regularly scheduled pandemic.
Depending what you mean by "stayed on" - I just looked it up, after its IPO Yahoo bought it for 3.5 billion. Was the 3rd most visited internet site around 2000... Amazing. But we must have met these guys before the IPO so they must have cashed out privately. Bet they'd have been better off waiting.