The more I think about this tournament the more I think Argentina and Messi might finally lift up the Cup. Now of course I am hoping Colombia pulls it off but if they face Argentina in the Final I would have to favor the "Albiceleste". They seem to always beat Colombia in Barranquilla. I don't know what it is but they love playing there, (And of course Colombia might get eliminated before the Final too.)
Eh...the best team in Argentina's group is Uruguay, so even making the Final will be a steep mountain to climb.
Uruguay is solid but I would still take the home team. (Uruguay did pull off the upset on penalties last time in 2011 so you never know. I just am not as high on Uruguay as others are in 2020.)
Maybe. Still a long way to go before June/July and surprises can happen as they seem to do in the Copa.
Actual tournament news- It is being reported in Colombian media that Tite will bring a younger Brasil team to this Copa America and rest his main squad. Odds for a Colombia-Argentina Final just got a little bit better this weekend. But of course upsets can still occur and we have to play the games. (And Brasil still has plenty of talent to make a run.)
That will be known for sure on March 6; on that day, 11am Brazil time, Tite will announce the squad for the tournament. On the very same day, the Brazilian Olympic NT will likewise be announced. Odds are better for a Colombia vs. Argentina final? Brazil being a contender or not, there's also Uruguay and Chile to contend with. Both failed in 2019 and both would love to win it - the former as it did it in 2011 and the latter as a title win would (symbolically at least) signify a pause of the eclipsing of the golden generation that won 2 continental titles. If Brazil fails to win it, whether it's a younger team or not, it won't be the end of the world as Brazil won it in 2019 and as WCQ will have started by then. That's the main goal for Brazil's senior NT now (not to mention there are six WCQ fixtures after the 2020 Copa América before the year ends).
Uruguay, maybe. Chile, at least this generation, are done. Did you not see them get ragdolled by Peru last year? The raw talent from that 2007 u-20 team that Bielsa chiseled into a golden generation is long in the tooth, the up-and-comers aren't helping yet, and Rueda hasn't shown anything to convince me that he can get them back to their imperious form under Sampaoli.
As I said earlier in the thread I do not rate Uruguay as highly as others do in 2020. They usually have very slow starts in tournaments and I do not think they can afford to do that this summer. Especially since it could mean they would have to fly thousands of Miles for the knockouts if they finish third in the Group. Chile's best players are getting older but they seem to have some nice U 23 guys coming up. I think their best days are behind them though and there is still tension between their players and their Colombian manager. And yes, Brasil should be dangerous no matter who they bring... ... but it could turn out like the Centenario as well. They all can be contenders for sure but the Home teams in my book are the Faves. Argentina really, really wants to win one for Messi. This is the biggest tournament Colombia has ever hosted so the fans will be ready to rock and the players should be up for the task. We shall see.
The Chileans are not at their best, but they'll do what they can to make life tough for whomever they face. If their competitiveness - at least in terms of talent - has diminished, they are still a scrappy team. This is one of the reasons Chile did well in 2015 and in 2016 other than good players: that Chilean NT was a group of fighters. All about context for each team. I wrote something about context in the Brazil forums... in a nutshell, Brazil's context is building a team for 2022. Brazil will go into Qatar without a World Cup title victory for 20 years, but it did win the 2019 Copa América (the first and only title in the Tite era), and the first time Brazil won it since 2007. With that out of the way, and with the 2016 Olympic gold medal won by Brazil, CBF can focus all of its energies on building a winning team for 2022. WCQ will have had 2 rounds by the time the 2020 Copa América starts but it'll have 6 further fixtures after it. No team is safe and every match will be do-or-die. So if Brazil does not win it this year, it won't be a tragedy. For other teams, what are their contexts? For Colombia, I see it as a golden chance a la 2001 to win a major title. Colombia is a very good side; it easily defeated Argentina (in what was its biggest match in the 2019 tournament) and I expected it to reach the semifinals at least. It'll be at home, and with Colombia consistently producing good players and having reached the WC round of 16 in 2014 and the quarters in 2018, the precedent is getting harder to meet. A title win at home would be a great morale boost as well as a chance to strengthen the team as it goes through WCQ. Uruguay? Another team I saw as a semifinalist last year. They finished 2nd in 2018 WCQ and their competitive streak in the past several years must be credited to "Professor" Óscar Tabárez. I like and respect this manager for his longevity and commitment. Uruguay is that team no one can ever count out - 2011 was their year and they will be a thorn on everyone's side in WCQ. They're the top winners of this competition, and barring an embarrassingly poor performance, Tabárez will likely remind his team that even without the title, they have the goods for succeed in WCQ. Argentina? The final leg of Messi's NT career, the rebuilding of a team which came close to glory in 2014 only to be poorly managed into 2018, and which hasn't won this tournament since 1993. Obviously, it wants a top 4 finish in WCQ. But for them specifically, it's trophy or misery. They too will host and in 2011 they didn't win it. Olympic gold is not as important now as it once was given they won it in 2008 and in 2012. Their most recent matches show they are on the upswing. Like Colombia, Argentina will bring its best not only to win the tournament, but because finding a Copa-winning starting XI will fit into the greater, longer-term objective of building a team for 2022.
For Uruguay they must, must,MUST have a good start and they are just not used to that sorta thing in tournaments. Even this past World Cup when they went to the Quarters they did not look all that great early on in the Group stage. Talent wise they should make it to at least the Semis but would it surprise me if they tied Australia, lost to Argentina and then lost to Chile in what would feel like a road match in Mendoza???? Not at all. And that sort of start could be a hole too big for them to climb out of.
All that would possibly set up a Colombia-Uruguay QF...and if there's one thing football history teaches us, it is that Uruguay will eliminate you in your own house if given the chance. Hell, they'd probably make a run to the Final, laugh at Argentina or whoever has to cross the continent right before the game and spin it as, "We meant to finish third so we could get here early"
There's many scenarios. I think Colombia would get the job done. But we shall see. It could possibly set up an early exit and not even advancing if they don't win against Paraguay or Bolivia. It is all speculation and hypothetical right now.
I would tip my cap to Uruguay if they found a way to do it though. Hypothetically having to travel 4,000 miles from a wintery wonderland down in Argentina to the heat of Barranquilla and beating Colombia would be quite the feat,especially after the given scenario of starting out poorly. It would possibly be one of the biggest accomplishment in any soccer tournament history if they can do it.
Uruguay has no less than Muslera, Godín, Coates, Stuani, Suárez and Cavani. But it has lots of young talented players too: Laxalt, Viña, Giménez, Vecino, Nández, Maxi Gómez, Pereiro, Torreira, Bentancur, De Arrascaeta, Viñas, Valverde, Brian Rodríguez...
The Copa America 2020 format doesn't really punish slow starters. I mean, even if they get just 1 point from their first 3 matches they would still be alive with wins against Bolivia and Paraguay. When can you ever get 1 point from your first 3 matches of an int'l tournament and still be in decent shape to advance? I get the travel issue, but everyone from that division will need to make that trip eventually if they are gonna lift the trophy. First-class, luxury travel with no big jet-lag/time difference to overcome. Meh... Wintery wonderland? Their final group match is in Tucuman where the average early-July high temperature is 67F. Not to mention, Tucuman is already one-third of the way from Buenos Aires to Colombia and they have an extra days rest over whoever they play from the other division in the quarterfinal.
Just gives Group B a huge advantage since they will not have to travel that far if they win the first two slots. 60s compared to 90s and humidity is a wintery wonderland. (And the other venues they play in will probably be much colder.) My cousins in Miami wear sweaters and jackets once the thermometer drops below 70.
I'm fairly confident Uruguay can finish top 2 anyway, and especially top 3 (thus avoiding Barranquilla until the final). It would be more of an issue if they had altitude to contend with IMO, but no chance of playing in Bogota except for the dead rubber third-place match
I am not as confident as you are given their early schedule as I pointed out but they have the talent and tactics to finish top two. Altitude would affect everyone equally going from one high altitude to a low altitude in such a small time frame. The heat of Barranquilla is something Uruguay has complained about before during qualifying. I remember when they lost 4-0 back in 2012 they blamed it on such. So there is precedent for them losing their cool no pun intended.
Changing gears a bit: Rumors are swirling again from Mexican media that the CONMEBOL and CONCACAF are working on a combined Copa America similar to the Centenario for 2024.
Here we go again. In a few months, they'll realize Ecuador might not the best place to hold an expanded Copa America in terms of maximizing profit. So they'll decide to host it somewhere else in 2023, while keeping the standard Copa America tournament in Ecuador for 2024.