What's your take on USMNT preference for MLS?

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by DHC1, Apr 15, 2019.

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What's your take on USMNT preference for MLS?

  1. There's absolutely no preference

    20 vote(s)
    19.6%
  2. There's a preference - it's deserved because they fit better with the system

    1 vote(s)
    1.0%
  3. There's a preference - it's deserved because they're better players

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Way too early to say if there's a preference

    8 vote(s)
    7.8%
  5. Not ready to indict but early signs are ominous that there's an MLS bias

    20 vote(s)
    19.6%
  6. It's obviously a bias and it's bad for the USMNT

    53 vote(s)
    52.0%
  1. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    given that the success rate (defined as making the major leagues) at even the best academies is something like 3%, I think that goes without saying.
     
  2. asoc

    asoc Member+

    Sep 28, 2007
    Tacoma
    Not getting dragged into you pulling this another direction.

    I responded to a paragraph from someone else blaming MLS academies for the lost generation. He very clearly implied MLS caused the fall of Bradenton.

    I quoted an article, gave some numbers on Bradenton.

    I made a comment the best academies in MLS can compete with the best academies in the world. I backed that up with some facts. If the academy teams can compete with those teams on the field and win games against them. They can compete. That's all I said.

    In the last post of mine you quoted, I very clearly stated this "It means there is work to be done as kids are graduating out of the academies."

    Which does not disagree with what you are saying.

    Have a good day.
     
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  3. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    yeah, I don’t think it’s fair to blame MLS academies for the lost generation. I don’t think it’s even an argument quite frankly. I also don’t think that it’s MLS’ duty to develop USMNT player but rather an alignment of interests.

    I was simply pointing out that that particular statement comparing the tip MLS programs to the world’s best was hyperbolic.
     
  4. Patrick167

    Patrick167 Member+

    Dortmund
    United States
    May 4, 2017
    The lack of functioning (as in capable of developing at least MLS quality players) Academies was a big factor in the Lost Generation. But you can't say they are at fault for not starting 10 years earlier. You can say MLS is at fault for not starting them earlier. But their business model was predicated on an NFL model of talent development (i.e. NCAA doing it for free).

    I do think MLS has an obligation to develop players for the USMNT and American players more generally. But that is not really an on topic conversation.

    I don't think the USMNT has an obligation to develop players for MLS or to market them.
     
  5. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you take a deep look at where our big time players born between 1990-1996 were coming from on the youth national team rosters you could see that MLS academies were hardly involved really before 2015-2017. MLS academies could be pointed to for the lost generation as they could have been doing what they are now for over a decade and a half. But it also falls on Ussoccer failing with the DA and not switching to a 10-month season until the 2012/13 season. The lack of a development structure was the self-inflicted wound that caused us to miss 2018

    Also the MLS and Ussoccer should have a symbiotic relationship. Both should be looking to make the other better but it should be MLS who has more of an obligation to produce for Ussoccer than the USMNT has to produce for MLS. The USMNT should be choosing the best players regardless of league. For the youth national teams there is more of an emphasis for MLS kids as unless they are in Europe the best kids will be in MLS academies. But the success of the USMNT will grow the MLS, if there are a couple MLS guys on the USMNT (that are deserving) then that will be great for the league.

    But if Ussoccer wants to be successful then having a quality domestic league which their youth can develop and prime players can flourish is essential to success. We won't get anywhere by having an average league and then praying for our 1% players to survive in Europe and then be disappointed when only 1-2 guys per age group don't flop. People who want to bury the MLS are hurting Ussoccer just as much as Ussoccer is shooting itself in the foot by over hyping MLS guys (Zardes, Roldan, Lovitz). If ussoccer wanted to help themselves they would push for MLS to raise the salary cap by a pretty significant margin and also mandate a HG player requirement on rosters, potentially even push for mandating a minimum HG minutes per season rule.
     
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  6. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    i agree with much of this although i don't think MLS has an obligation to develop players for the USMNT - I think they will do it because it's in their own interest to develop players who happen to be Americans.

    I do have another question: what do you mean by "having an average league"? Does Brazil, Argentina and Belgium have average leagues?

    The downside to mandating a HG minutes requirement is that it would likely lower the level of play in MLS as most of the best players in the league aren't American. I certainly don't want more incentive for MLS to overpay and bring back our best players in their prime so they can play in a minor league.
     
  7. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Brazil and Argentina have player development down to a science and I've seen this in person at Botafogo and Cruzeiro. Belgium gets the luck of being able to have their best players develop at other countries academies or they get pooled to the elite clubs in Belgium. Argentina's clubs scout the best kids and move them to their major clubs and ship them off immediately at 18. For the usa kids who are not a top 1% talent for their age group and would not make it in Europe and are best off in MLS they need a better first team to push them so they have to work to make it as a pro. Someone like Gianluca Busio should not be able to get 1000 minutes without any truly elite qualities. For a country without a rich history in player development you can overcome it by having a great league for your players to develop.

    I don't think a HG minutes requirement would hurt too much. The can be used as subs and if a club develops a gem then that kid would meet a minimum requirement right there. There are not enough rules protecting American kids in MLS like there are in some other leagues. France is very strict with international players so they can have more French players break through and it has obviously payed off for them.
     
  8. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    I'd like to clarify what you're saying.

    How good a league does MLS need to become in order for us to "get anywhere" given that we don't have a rich history in player development?

    Isn't becoming a good league at odds with placing limits on foreign players, if we assume that the players added are generally better than our second tier players (assuming that our best try to compete in the majors)?
     
  9. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Does anyone know the number of American players in MLS in absolute terms, not in percentage?

    Has that actually declined or is it that of the new teams/players added, the vast majority of the incremental number is foreign?
     
  10. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    Not sure what the numbers are off hand but I believe that the numbers and percentages have been posted many times...especially on the YNT board. I believe the percentages have gone down over the years but the numbers have gone up. I don't think that the increase in numbers has been hugely striking, but it also has to be noted that the overall play in the league has been improving which should imply that the quality of US players in the league is also improving. (of course some may differ). End result: increased quality and quantity in absolute terms. Decreased quantity in percentage terms. relative quality is much more subjective. Obviously we didn't have the same quality of import in the past so perhaps the relative quality has gone down but, again, that is far more difficult to measure.
     
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  11. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    that’s what I would have guessed: there are more Americans playing in MLS despite a decreasing participation percentage, all while the level of play is materially increasing.

    this is counter-factual to the breathless pronouncements focused on participation percentages.
     
  12. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    When you combine it with the very significant growth in USL, the increase is quite significant. Many of the past participants in MLS would not make the grade in MLS today but would in USL.
     
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  13. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    Any timing estimate on your pool of player? Looking forward to seeing it.
     
  14. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    The numbers of US players in the MLS has gone up BUT it is because the MLS has over expanded and therefore diluted the talent making the better players stagnate due to playing week after week against mostly poor to bad players. The best do not get stretched to improve because there are so many poor players in the over expanded player pool caused by over expansion and that is caused by greed. The execs in the MLS do not care about players getting better but, rather, they care only about milking the fan base for more and more dollars.

    The MLS hurts the US player's development a LOT more than it helps. There seems to be enough good players in the US right now for a decent league about half the size of the current MLS.

    The development academies do an OK job but, due to the size of the league, it will be years before there are enough good US based players to fill the bloated MLS. However the MLS has improved many CONCACAF teams because the MLS is a better league that any in any other CONCACAF country except Mexico.
     
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  15. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    Hopefully I'll have some time this weekend.
    Basically the big difference is that I see a much larger pool of players (compared to your European pool) at a secondary level. there are not as many in MLS (zero...possibly Morris) at the higher levels (ie Adams, McKennie, Pulisc) but far more (IMO) at the secondary levels. I will get to it as soon as possible.
     
  16. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    i look forward to it and whether it can corroborate keeping a 1/3 cap on non-MLS players.
     
  17. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    It won't really prove anything. Bottom line is that we all have our opinions and very little is based upon objective fact, but hopefully it will make my position(s) a bit more understandable to you.
     
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  18. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    First a few comments:


    I have limited my choices to players that are 28 and younger because I believe that 30yrs (age in 2 yrs) is a pretty good age to cut things off. That is not a hard line. I included Altidore for now (29 I think) but I don’t believe we have any other players for which we should be making that exception.


    I don’t really know the GK’s very well, so am not picking any. I think we seem to have quite a few that don’t really stand out from the rest of the crowd but, like I said, I don’t know them, so won’t add names to the list just to add names.


    The first three columns to the left are DHC’s choices/rankings for callus and where he believes they should rank in the hierarchy of competition. He included players from Europe and MLS. I tried to mimic his categories but my first hand knowledge is primarily MLS players, so I am limiting it to MLS players.


    Comparing the two groups of players, Europe has several top players, while MLS has few or none depending upon your standards but , in my opinion, the numbers of 2nd level players listed by DHC is significantly smaller than in MLS. As a result, the majority of the pool not named Pulisic, McKennie etc is and should come from MLS. That doesn’t mean that guys like Holmes, Green, Robinson should be excluded. I believe that they should be given a chance. It is also true that guys in MLS have been passed over as well.
     

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  19. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    #669 DHC1, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
    Thank you for your response.

    I do think it's a bit difficult to discuss whether there's a bias between MLS and non-MLS players if you are only familiar with MLS! That being said, on the MLS side, here's the differences between us on auto calls and deserves a look.

    MLS Auto-call

    Agreed: Long, Cannon, Morris, Altidore
    Difference: you have Lletget whom i have in equal time

    MLS "Deserves a shot"

    Agreed: Zimmerman, Lima, Pomykal, Yueill, Zardes, Arriola
    Difference: you have MRobinson, Sands, Vines, Hollingshead, Villafana (who is 30 btw), Garza, Araujo, Acosta, Canouse, Bedoya (who is 32 btw), Roldan, Mihalovic. I have Nagbe and Lletget.

    Let's be inclusive and simply add all of your players to my list, we'd get

    MLS 27
    Non MLS 22

    which would still get to MLS equal to 55%. That is meaningfully below the 2/3 threshold that Berhalter and Arena have been adhering to since 2017 (with a noticeably different composition under Sarachan that led to better results incidently).

    I think your list of additional MLS players is exhaustive and those players are not elite players by MLS standards, let alone international ones. I think that we could add an equal amount of non-MLS players at that level to my list but in any event, being fully inclusive serves to highlight that it's pretty hard to get to the 2/3 standard that Gregg has been consistently using. I also don't think that injuries explain a lot of the discrepancy as there have been a lot of Gregg's MLS players who have missed a bunch of camps as well (Altidore, Bradley, Lletget) which mostly offsets the losses from Adams, Brooks and Pulisic.
     
  20. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    I don't watch much Euro soccer and I never watch B2, Championship etc. I barely have enough time to follow MLS (even then I don't see too many games).

    That being said, I am familiar with all of the players you mention but do not watch B2 games, or Championship games, for instance and so have very limited first hand knowledge of guys like Green in their league play. I am limited to the time they have been with the USMNT. Most of the players you listed, I know well enough to have an opinion. The exceptions are Alvarado (have seen but not recently enough), Horvath (last I saw was a poor game under Sarachan), A. Robinson (was impressed with his time with USMNT but haven't seen him recently), and Holmes (had an impressive cameo). I would exclude Chandler and Lichaj due to age but I haven't seen Chandler or Lichaj since last callups. edit: I haven't seen Weah since last callup either...but has anyone?

    As for the disagreements...that is going to happen. I also have some disagreements with your choices. Part may be due to a slightly different interpretation of "autocall" and part may be due to a different assessment of the player's quality. I included autocall to be first 15 which could be first off the bench (similar to Lleget's role thus far). I am not considering it to be autostarter and I don't believe inclusion in this category should automatically indicate 100% or close to 100% of available minutes. I would probably consider Miazga equal time and Long borderline equal time as well.

    What I find more significant is not my lack of input on the Euro side but the comparison between our MLS lists. If anything, I think I was a bit more selective with my MLS list (aside from the 2 errors by my criteria on age). I didn't choose a Gk (but am not saying no GK deserves to compete), left out Opara (age), left out Lovitz (quality) left out Nagbe (desire to be on NT)...all players you included. I do have several players that you did not include...(my guess is that Sands, Vines, Araujo are among the surprises to you?)

    Sands had a very good year as the cb on NYFC until he was injured. He may not have been elite (depending upon what your bar is) but he was very good.

    Vines (maybe the biggest surprise?) quietly had a good year on a bad team. He caught my curiosity when I noticed how much time he had been getting and I really focused on him when Colorado played LAFC. He was matched up against Vela....until they switched Vela to the opposite side. He's pretty good. Is he international quality? not sure but I think he may have the right to get a shot.

    Araujo didn't have too many minutes over the year (800-900ish if I remember correctly) but most were later in the year and I was very impressed by his play. The main reason I feel he didn't play in the U20 wc is that he was behind Dest. I definitely feel he should have played over Feltscher...whether he is ready to beat out the likes of Yedlin, Cannon, Dest is a different question but he's pretty good.
     
  21. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    After reading this, it wasnt hard to close my eyes and imagine Berhalter saying this at a press conference.

    I dont watch games from those leagues either, but it isnt hard to follow our players as there are more and more folks who put out all touch videos these days. The easiest guy to follow is Alvarado... his agent puts them up on YouTube for every game. There are a number of twitter accounts that focus on american players. Just search USMNT and a few will pop up.
     
  22. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal


    Not sure exactly how to take this. If it is a criticism of my post, which I assume it is, than I'll just have to deal with it. If is a comment on Berhalter than I agree that he should be able to follow all of our players. That is his job and he has many resources at hand. It is not in my job description. The fact that there are resources online is irrelevant. I don't do twitter and I get paid for something entirely different.
     
  23. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I didnt mean it personally. It was directed solely at Berhalters selections.

    I dont "do" twitter but I "do" the internet. I follow people on twitter by bookmarking them. I just offered the information as I thought it might be interesting to a USMNT fan.
     
  24. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    In that case, I apologize for making the assumption that you were being critical and I agree that Berhalter could and should do more to follow our domestic talent abroad and at home and more importantly, he should act on that information by inviting those players into camp.. He has a staff and scouts (I assume), he has or should have contacts abroad and he can very easily contact the teams directly for video and or information about the players. there is no excuse for him to not know about the vast majority of US eligible players available. (there could still be a player here or there that has US eligibility and goes unnoticed but those cases should be extremely rare.)
     
  25. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    #675 DHC1, Dec 12, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
    apologies for a long post.

    i didn't mean for my post to be a criticism of your choices but simply noted that it's pretty deep in MLS and I could fill a list of non-MLS as well. In any event, I took all of your choices and simply added them to mine to show that it's hard to get the 2/3 roster that Berhalter and Arena consistently use(d). Mea culpa on not pointing out that you excluded Lovitz and Opara - simply missed it.

    If I understood your suggestions in this thread (exclude 2 MLS and 2 non-MLS due to age reasons) and add it to your prior list, I think it looks like this:

    Central Defenders (4)
    Autocall (3): John Brooks, Aaron Long, Matt Miazga
    Deserves a Look (1): Ream, Zimmerman, Alvarado, Carter-Vickers, Sands, MRobinson

    Central Midfielders (5)
    Autocall (3): Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Morales, Sebastian Lletget,
    Deserves a Look (2): Duane Holmes, Yueill, Green, Pomykal, roldan, Acosta, Canouse, Mihailovic

    Outside Back/Wing (4)
    Autocall (3): DeAndre Yedlin, Dest, Cannon
    Deserves a Look (1): ARobinson, Nick Lima, Vines, Hollingshead, Garza, Araujo

    Attackers (7)
    Autocall (5): Christian Pulisic, Jordan Morris, Timothy Weah, Josh Sargent, Jozy Altidore
    Deserves a Look (2): Paul Arriola, Tyler Boyd, Zardes

    Autocall (15): MLS: 5, Non MLS 10 (MLS = 33%)
    Deserves a Look (23): MLS 16, Non MLS 7 (MLS 70%)
    Total: MLS 21, Non MLS 17. (MLS: 55%)

    The overall 55% MLS rate is materially lower than the 67% that's been remarkably consistent across camps.

    Furthermore, if we assume that the first 15 players are auto-calls and therefore there are only 8 more spots which are given 70% to MLS, it looks like this:

    Full squad based
    Autocall (15): MLS: 5, Non MLS 10 (MLS = 33%)
    Deserves a Look (8): MLS 6, Non MLS 2 (MLS 70%)
    Total: MLS 11, Non MLS 12. (MLS: 48%)

    btw, this assumes that only one out of the three keepers are not from MLS while I think Steffen is an autocall and Horvath deserves looks.

    Even if you assume two of the non-MLS autocalls are out due to injury at every camp, that leaves

    2 Non-MLS injuries
    Autocall (13): MLS: 5, Non MLS 8 (MLS = 38%)
    Deserves a Look (10): MLS 7, Non MLS 3 (MLS 70%)
    Total: MLS 12, Non MLS 11. (MLS: 52%)

    You'd have to torture the numbers to get to an overall consistent 67% rate. If you drop Miazga and Weah to Deserves-a-Look and remove Ream and Green entirely, you still get to

    Tortured Full Squad
    Auto call (13): MLS 5, non-MLS 8 (MLS = 38%)
    Deserves a Look: (10): MLS: 7 non MLS 3 (MLS = 70%)
    Total: MLS 12, non-MLS 11 (MLS: 52%)

    with injuries only to two non-MLS auto call ups

    Tortured Squad with 2 non-MLS injuries
    Auto call (11): MLS 5, non-MLS 6
    Deserves a Look: (12): MLS: 8 non MLS 4 (MLS = 70%)
    Total: MLS 13, non-MLS 10 (55% MLS)

    that still doesn't get you to the consistent 2/3 that Berhalter and Arena have used.

    I hope this explains why some of us have been so worked up over the bias. It's pretty apparent when looked at over the full year.
     

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