The All-Encompassing Pro/Rel Thread on Soccer in the USA

Discussion in 'Soccer in the USA' started by bigredfutbol, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Liverpool was the second biggest city in England by a long way before the Second World War.

    1931 - 846,302
    1961 - 737,637
    2001 - 439,428

    It's still the 5th biggest metro area.
     
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  2. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think that is his argument. I think he's refuting someone else's argument that pro/rel is what makes the big Euro leagues successful.
     
  3. CoachP365

    CoachP365 Member+

    Money Grab FC
    Apr 26, 2012
    So why should soccer be any different? Maybe a good team from Rochester winning a endears them to people all over the country? I see guys in Gonzaga jerseys all over local hoops courts for old man pickuip, they can't all be alumni or Jesuits, right?
     
  4. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not suggesting it would be. I'm more concerned about big money than big markets.
     
  5. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    \
    Question: Does D-1- FBS college football have a lot of parity?
    Answer: No; a small handful of programs dominate the sport.

    Question: What do the schools that dominate college football have in common?
    Answer: The most money and the largest fan bases.

    Question: What does this have to do with pro/rel ?
    Answer: It's shows that players choosing where they play has more of an impact on parity then pro/rel. That even in a system where players are technically paid the same you still get stratification even without pro/rel, because the best players want to play in the biggest most successful programs.

    So your saying that if there was a 32 team European Super league based on population then Liverpool wouldn't make the cut? Sounds like they aren't a "big Market" in terms of population.

    Also being 4th in England doesn't tell the whole story. Based on the list I found (literally first thing that popped up on google) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESPON_metropolitan_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom there are at least 9 clubs that come from larger Metro areas.

    But you have completely missed the point. My point wasn't about the population, it was the idea that the biggest, wealthiest franchises, programs, clubs, have massive built in inherent advantages that allow them to dominate their sports. This is true in both an open and closed system and happens regardless of pro/rel not because of it.

    The reason US professional sports have more parity is not because they are a closed system. It's because they have taken specific explicit steps to encourage it.

    And for the record I am not trying to dump on College Football. I love college football one of my favorite things to do is to spend Saturday watching from 9am-11pm just enjoying the chaos.
     
  6. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Then that's what you should have said. But you said 'big markets' which specifically relates to population/size.

    As I said above, I agree that money drives success, but we've seen that money is not inherently linked to market size, especially in Europe. The think European teams and college football have on common is long histories. MLS doesn't have that, so I believe that big money will be much more closely linked with market size in MLS (and most American pro sports) that it is in Europe or college football.
     
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  7. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wasn't saying he was making that argument. I was simply saying that Europe's lack of parity is as relevant to pro/rel as the U.S. not qualifying for W.C. '18. Basically very little if any relevance.
     
    Paul Berry repped this.
  8. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The return of Brendan Rodgers has been awesome.
     
  9. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Leicester in second is pretty amazing, you have to admit. And this season they're doing it with attacking football, when at least some of the big clubs are in good form.
     
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  10. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fair enough, I was using the term in a broader way to talk about the size of the wider fan base. I can see the confusion.

    I generally agree that actually college football has a lot in common with European Soccer. Specifically as you said long histories and getting to where they are very much based on their fan bases rather than a specific corporate structure.

    I disagree that MLS is more closely linked to market size. I mean by either attendance or on field success there isn't much correlation.

    Attendance top 10 franchises listed in order with their population rank in terms of market size parentheses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas
    Atlanta (9), Seattle (15), Cincinnati (29), Portland (25), Toronto (about 6m so around 8th), LAG (2), Orlando (22), LAFC (2), Minn (16).

    On Field Success: Last 10 MLS cup winners with population rank in parentheses.
    Seattle (15), Atlanta (9), Toronto (would be around 8th), Seattle (15), Portland (25), Galaxy (2), K.C. (31), LAG (2), LAG(2), Col (19).

    There is a little more if you look at the value of the franchise* but even here Atlanta is #1 and have Seattle, Portland, and K.C. in the top 10. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chriss...xpansion-fees-sale-prices-surge/#1735541751b5

    I actually don't think the MLS should completely focus on market size, or worry about saturation. I think they should try and get as many people as possible going to matches, and then leverage that into bigger and better TV deals. But hey I am just a dude so don't know as much as the execs at MLS.
     
  11. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I said I think the money will be linked to market size, not results (though money will drive results if the league moves further from parity). For example 3 of the 4 conference finalists this year were from the top 10 biggest MLS markets, Seattle being the outlier. And as we've seen most of the big money signings (though not all) are ending up in NYC, LA, Chicago, Toronto, etc. 6 of the 10 highest priced players this year were in those markets.
     
  12. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ummm umm, I guess but not totally sure about that. Look at the least franchises by value you do have LA teams a New York, Chicago, Toronto and D.C.who are all big markets in the top ten, but you also have Portland, Seattle and Kansas City. Honestly just eyeballing it I see a much closer correlation between attendance and value then market size.
     
  13. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There's one further confounding factor in MLS, which is that most of the larger markets entered the league in the MLS 1.0 era, saw poor play on the field and/or big missteps in fan relations, and tuned out. Those markets also tend to have stadiums far out in the suburbs because MLS didn't have the leverage at the time to build closer to downtown. The smaller-market teams in MLS are doing better at the gate in large part because they learned from the mistakes that earlier MLS teams made, while the older MLS teams are still recovering from having poisoned their own markets.
     
  14. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Certainly. M though, is trying to frame what was said originally about them as something else entirely. Should they manage a top 4 finish this season that'd be mighty impressive. It'll also show how hard it is to maintain for a club not "big 6" as they'd have dropped back down and taken lumps for 3yrs before coming back up for the air of a top end EPL finish.

    *sigh*

    This is about M trying to frame what we've stated about Leicesters title winning season ... a team being in the EPL for two years and winning it. Or for that matter, any top end league.

    You don't pay attention to the thread much do you? I watch plenty of soccer from several leagues. This isn't new to anyone in this thread. Though I'm not sure what Leicester's good form this season has to do with ANYTHING actually. The only comments in this thread about them have been about how their winning the title in their 2nd season back to the EPL was a blip, fairy tale, aberration, etc. Them crashing back to the middle of the pack subsequently (and for the last 3 seasons) kind of shows that to be true. Their performance so far this season has been great and they've played the most consistent football out of anyone in the league thus far.

    We'll see how it goes for them. It'd be GREAT if they stayed the course for a top 4 finish. That'd be fantastic. But it isn't about Leicester, it's about what their title winning season was and how it happened. THAT absolutely was an aberration and pro/rel plays into that ....

    You can go back in the thread as there's plenty of round and rounds about what this particular bit deals with. In short, some of us feel that pro/rel HELPS/PLAYS A PART in the predictability. It's one of the things that helps keep the "haves" and bigger clubs at the top end of the table. Just look at how the perpetual climb and continuing widening gap caught Stoke. When at least 1/3 of your league is just worried about surviving from year to year your ability to remain at the top end is exponentially. There's already an 8pt gap between 4th and 5th. The gap from 5th to 18th is only 9pts.

    5th largest metro and 3rd largest city in England ....
     
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  15. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He has a point.


    Liverpool has been a poor city like Naples, Marseille and Newcastle, where fans tend to be fanatical.

    And traditionally Liverpool have been one of the best supported teams in Ireland not least thanks to a direct ferry from Dublin and a large Irish immigrant population.
     
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  16. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In terms of media markets, Seattle is #13 in the US.
     
  17. M

    M Member+

    Feb 18, 2000
    Via Ventisette
    No, it wasn't. Birmingham had a population of just over 1 million in 1930.
     
  18. Crawleybus

    Crawleybus Member+

    Oct 18, 2013
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    If I were you I wouldn't put any money on 'Champions elect' Man Utd finishing above relegation certainties Leicester City, you might lose your shirt.
     
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  19. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Cool. Not sure what the comment here is about but golly gee willikers, thanks for the heads up. While you're giving out unwarranted betting advice from your fourth point of contact, what about ManU finishing above Sheffield United?
     
  20. owian

    owian Member+

    Liverpool FC, San Diego Loyal
    May 17, 2002
    San Diego
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Yeah I know that and guess what whether you like it or not he has a point. That did happen a team two years from another division, that was predicted to be relegated won the title. That is relevant to this discussion especially when before they won everyone was saying it couldn't happen. Well guess what it did, and guess what it could and might again.


    Correct

    Not sure either as I said above I don't pay much attention to the thread. Just pop in and out to see if anything moved on.

    Your post caught my attention though because asked people to review Leicester at the end of the season, insinuating that they wouldn't be where they currently are. Which is a bit odd because their current location in 2nd isn't really a shock if you'd been watching them since Brendan took over. (Honestly before then).

    Please see above comment

    Wouldn't define it as crashing. They were overtly focused on the Champions league and were rewarded by making the Q/F's and still stayed well clear of relegation (after some early flirtation).

    So why are you insinuating that they won't be around the same spot at the end of the season? Would you be saying the same if they were red and played in Salford?

    Okay but still shows that even in the modern world a team CAN (because one did) win the title only a year out from promotion. That is a fact you may not like it and it doesn't fit your narrative but it did actually happen.

    Sure, which I have been part of but nobody has been able to put a coherent argument together as to why. Especially when you have clubs that have been in the premier league for multiple seasons, sometimes decades but they aren't able to challenge for the title. Basically can you explain to me why Everton hasn't challenged for a title in 30 years?

    So Man United, Arsenal and Spurs are have not's now. Interesting. Kind of blows your argument out of the water since Arsenal have technically never been relegated. (whole war getting in the way and stuff stopped it)


    See previous responses to others. Liverpool on an English context is medium to big (maybe Atlanta equivalent) while much smaller on a European scale (midsized) yet 18 and 6 nice:).
     
  21. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They keep selling their best players.
     
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  22. Crawleybus

    Crawleybus Member+

    Oct 18, 2013
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    The point is the year Leicester got promoted I was categorically told that pro/rel was pointless because promoted clubs were just 'canon fodder' never to become competitive and destined only for relegation!! Leicester are just one of many clubs that have proven this particular pearl of wisdom to be complete bollox and yes relegation certainties Sheffield United are just the latest club to prove it! I think we can all agree that relegation certainties Leicester City are perhaps not the relegation certainties we were told they would be after all no?
     
  23. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As has been pointed out many, many times at this point, less than a third of the season doesn't prove anything yet.
     
  24. Crawleybus

    Crawleybus Member+

    Oct 18, 2013
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    You still believe Leicester are relegation certainties!!?? really! lol, besides it hasn't been only a third of a season, it's been 5 seasons that relegation certainties Leicester City have been in the Premier League, some 'other' relegation certainties like Bournemouth, Palace or Brighton (to name but a few) have since also shown that promotion doesn't mean 'certain relegation' no?
     
  25. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Did I say I thought Leicester were relegation certanties? No, I did not. I responded specifically to your claims about Sheffield. The fact that you can't get this point through your head (or refuse to) is approaching troll levels.
     

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