The thing about Manchin, is that Dems probably need more politicians like him to win 50+ seats in the Senate. Manchin may never vote for Medicare for all, he will never vote for a green deal (unless lots of money gets thrown at West Virginia). If Dems win control of the house [Edit if they win the Senate], Senators like Manchin will be a pain in the side of progressive democratic ideas, but with out him and a few like him, Dems can not have control of the Senate.
He must have been given some serious guarantees of a chairmanship position in the Senate. For him to stay, he may have seen some good numbers showing the Dem may win the Senate as well.
John Bel Edwards (LA) may eventually be another one, assuming he gets reelected governor next month. The Squad would hate him.
An other one bites the dust.....Something is in the air in Tx! Fifth Texas GOP Congressman Will Not Run For Reelection https://t.co/CAjDljVUGu via @TPM— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 4, 2019
A good-not-great Trump district. Probably a GOP hold; but it's looking like there's going to be a really large number of these longshot districts. The Dems will flip 1 or 2.
Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI, PVI R+13) retiring. His district should not be competitive. In 2018, the Democrats captured UT-04 (PVI R+13), MN-07 (PVI R+12), OK-05 (PVI R+10) and SC=01 (PVI R+10). It will be difficult to capture his seat.
That's the irony of the GOPs weaponization of redistricting. They have an assload of very-good-not-impossible districts. A divisive primary, or an extremist candidate, or a dynamic Dem, it MIGHT flip. GOPs have a built in advantage, but also are more vulnerable to a cataclysm in the House because so many of their districts are +10 or so.
The drug dealer from this scene is running for the House in Texas as a Democrat. https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=4R821QqY8Fs&t=24
Gabby Giffords' husband is running for the Senate in AZ and is the likely Democratic nominee. The state Republican chair said they would stop him dead in his tracks.
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index here is a breakdown into seven categories. I'm not saying my ranges are exact matches, but it's similar to the seven categories of Solid D, Likely D, Lean D, Tossup, Lean R, Likely R, and Solid R. D+20 or higher: 66 D+10 to D+19: 56 D+5 to D+9: 49 R+4 to D+4: 66 R+5 to R+9: 63 R+10 to R+19: 98 R+20 or higher: 37 The R+10 to R+19 category has 4 Democrats, so the fact that 98 is much higher than 56 for D+10 to D+19 doesn't matter much. The difference is R+5 to R+9 having 14 more than D+5 to D+9. 178 districts, which is 40.9 percent, are R+9 to D+9.
Stay classy Az GOP CHAIRWOMAN..... Arizona GOP chairwoman Kelli Ward said in a fundraising email that the GOP would stop U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kelly (D) “dead in his tracks,” the Washington Post reports. “Ward’s choice wording stands out not only because Kelly is an ardent gun control advocate, but because he took up the cause after his wife, former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, survived an assassination attempt in which a gunman killed six people and left Giffords with traumatic brain injuries.”
Republican Dan Bishop speaks to reporters — as an ad supporting his Democratic opponent, Dan McCready, plays on a TV in the background. #NC09 pic.twitter.com/AwVgq1il1R— Steven Shepard (@Politico_Steve) September 6, 2019
When superdave posted that the GOP would stop Kelly dead in his tracks, I figured he was making a bad joke. No actual GOP politician would say that. Once again, I overestimated Republicans. I am Charlie Brown and they are Lucy. They fool me again and again and again.
It's official: the number of 2020 GOP House retirements has (for now) caught up to the manic 2018 cycle. pic.twitter.com/BQZxSMFF4a— Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social (@donnermaps) September 4, 2019 Nobody wants to run when the president's approval rating is hard-capped at 43%, apparently.
Proud to announce my fiancé @BrandonFrickeCA will be taking on @tedlieu in 2020 for California’s 33rd district!https://t.co/CTA986NnaJ pic.twitter.com/AEaq8R0Ujk— Tomi Lahren (@TomiLahren) September 9, 2019
It's good for them to pick a district that they have no chance of winning. Makes the grift that much better - money for nothing, no actual responsibilities since they're not going to win a lot of votes in Westwood or El Segundo.