538 on the retirements. Why Texas. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-going-on-with-all-those-house-gop-retirements/ In this part they talk about what type of Republican will be tolerated in the future.
There was as story/interview with him on some podcast (or NPR, not sure which) about a year ago where he talked about driving back to DC with a neighboring Rep who is a Dem when they were returning form their summer recess.
They got a lot of publicity out of it. Hurd got a lot of goodwill and his votes and stances other than some security items were taken seriously because of that trip. The guy he traveled with was nicknamed Beto or something.
Oh, it was the other BO? Didn't realize that. I guess the shock of a Republican Black man in Texas was what got me.
https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/04/house-gop-retirements-continue/ Kenny Marchant retiring - Beto won his district, Marchant only won by 3% in 2018. This is truly something. Of the eleven Republicans who are not running for their old seats, FOUR are Texan. Three are from the Dallas-Forth Worth area, so maybe the GOP are happy that John Ratcliffe (TX-4, PVI R+28 but who knows at this point) didn't become the nominee. There's something big happening in Texas and the next decade is going to be critical for Democrats. If they can make Texas more like Virginia or Colorado, things will be great. Or, it'll become like North Carolina and Georgia.
Bye Byeeee.. Rep. Ken Marchant (R-TX) will announce his retirement from Congress tomorrow, the New York Times reports. He’ll be the fourth Texas Republican in recent weeks to call it quits. Marchant’s district is highly competitive. After winning it by double digits, he only carried it by three percentage points last year.
If Texas Hispanics ever vote like other Western Hispanics do, it's over for Republicans in Texas. Maybe El Paso will help tip the scales. But I don't know, Texas Hispanics have resisted the trend for a long time now.
Many Texas Hispanics are long term residents a good percentage of them may be anti-illegal immigration, but that is changing. More and more are recent immigrants. This article argues that they may go the way of California did after Prop 187. https://www.economist.com/special-r...n-shapes-the-politics-of-california-and-texas
Perhaps. I certainly hope. But Southwest Republicans have been dogging Hispanics for a long time now, without being punished in Texas for doing so.
It looks like they've (Latinos) been pushed too far in California and possibly New Mexico. Arizona is playing out to a stalemate, but compared to what the state looked like politically 20-30 years ago, that's rather remarkable. Texas will be a tougher nut to crack. I wonder about places in the upper Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan). These states either have slow or negative population growth. Michigan and Illinois are said to be losing people to other states. If so, where are they going, and do they tend to vote D or R in elections?
DriP Drip.....one more.... Speculation is swirling that Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), a 32-year veteran and moderate who has broken with President Trump on critical votes, will announce that he will not seek re-election, the New York Times reports.
I can't speak to the other states, but in Illinois there is strong population growth among Hispanics, offset by drainage from other groups. Most Illinois Hispanics are in the Chicago area and reliably vote for Democrats, so they have turned the state from being purple to reliably blue.
This is Chicago proper, so many of the people that live Chicago could be moving to the suburbs. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/art...decline-reveals-surprising-demographic-trends While Chicago proper has been shrinking since 1960, it was mostly flight to suburbia, the state kept growing. Now both the city and the state are losing population (the city at a higher rate, since some still move to the suburbs). http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/illinois-population/ https://www.chicagomag.com/city-lif...ow-Why-the-Chicago-Area-Is-Losing-Population/
The rate being minor for Illinois, but yes. And the more water that leaks out of the bucket, the more Hispanic the state will become. Illinois ranks #10 now, with New Jersey and New York in its sights. (Although those states are pretty different, because our Hispanics are about 75% of Mexican descent.)
Having lived in Arizona, that state is really different than the other three border states. Arizona is really Tucson v. Phoenix, or at least it was. Back when I was living there, it was very much Orange County, CA-type expats moving to Phoenix (cheaper) and the more liberal people moving to Tucson. Plus Tucson has about a 400 year history of encouraging interracial marriage. That said, Sheriff Joe really seemed to be the pinnacle of the conservative/racist people in Phoenix and there seems to be a clear shift since then. Mind, outside those two urban areas, it is a fairly conservative state apart from Bisbee.
Gov, go for it. You will win the Senate seat easily! Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) “has left the door open a crack to running against Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), even while insisting he’s fully committed to pursuing the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination,” the Colorado Springs Gazette reports. Hickenlooper said he would “be a fool” to continue running for president if his standing in the polls doesn’t improve, while adding, “I’ve never ruled out anything.”
Meanwhile, the Republican party in Nebraska is asking that GOP state senator John McCollister leave the party since he had the nerve to call on his party's leadership to condemn the incendiary language used by the President against minorities.
Check this: There are now officially 9 more registered Republicans in Orange County, CA (home of the Nixon Presidential Library) than Democrats. NINE. You can count on Democrats taking the lead in voter reg by tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/lxqhnwqNkB— Jill Replogle (@jillrep) August 6, 2019 This is nightmare level news for the GOP. The Dems swept the OC while the GOP had like 15K more registered voters in 2018.If this is the level of energy for Democrats, where they have more registered voters in ORANGE COUNTY...then not only is Trump going to get destroyed in the suburbs, but the GOP is going to lose the Senate as well
Well the AI party is a out and proud racist party correct? They may nominate Trump as their official candidate.
If wiki is correct (it is the internet, so it has to be 100% correct right?) they are the American independence party. BTW, I did not know this, but they did nominate Trump for President, and Trump is their candidate for 2020. Again if wiki is right, that is the first time they nominate the Republican candidate. They saw something in Trump that they liked, I wonder what could that be. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party
Thank you. Never heard of them. In fact, I thought it was these guys . . . https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_American_Party