Ok, since the other 2020 Thread is going to be full of Presidential information How about one that hopefully will keep Presidential Primary and Presidential election talk to a minimum. So do Republicans re-take the House of Representatives? Do Democrats take back the Senate? Do Republicans continue their dominance at State level government?
SCOTUS just rejected an appeal by Virgnia's state House of a court ordered redistricting of the State House and Senate. This means this fall's state election (where every seat is up for election) will likely be using a map that favors Democrats. This likely means Dems will, for the first time since Dixiecrats turned Republican, control all of Virginia's levers of government. https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/17/politics/supreme-court-racial-virginia-gerrymandering-case/index.html
Can't wait to see my neighboring state, the Commonwealth turn Blue! That has been a few years in the making. Perfect example of how a very good/ improved education system and successful migration/ immigration can pull a state forward.
WOW....Good ol' Roy is BACK!!! ROY MOORE IS RUNNING."Yes, I will run for the United States Senate in 2020," he says. "Can I win? Yes, I can win."— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) June 20, 2019 Asked what he'll do differently now versus his 2017 Senate bid, Roy Moore says: "I would like to make more personal contact with people."— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) June 20, 2019 Really??
Color me optimistic but I think Democrats win the Senate by holding Alabama, picking off Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and either Iowa or North Carolina.
You're assuming Democrats win back the White House, I am not. You want to guarantee a majority in the Senate, you need 51 votes. And even if we do win, you'll have some people like Manchin or Doug Jones who - in order to hold their seats - vote occasionally with Republicans, so to pass liberal legislation you need at least 51 to avoid forcing them into no-win scenarios, or giving one of them the opportunity to vote "no" without tanking the bill.
If Sanders or Warren win, they have to give up their Senate seats. Any Governor races in their states that may put a republican in charge of picking a temporary replacement?
Massachusetts has a Democratic governor. Vermont's is a Republican, but he's considered a moderate, rare as that is in either party nowadays.
If I could hack into the sound system at a politician's rally to change the music they play, Roy Moore would take the stage to this classic...
If the Democrats gain the president, they need to gain 3 seats. IMO Colorado is the Democrats easiest gain. Maine leans Democratic and now has a Democratic governor, both House members as Democrats, and the other senator an Independent who caucuses with Democrats. However, Susan Collins got 68.5 percent last time. Martha McSally surprising lost and was appointed to the other Senate seat, and Arizona now has a 5-4 Democratic majority in the House. However, Republican governor Doug Ducey was easily re-elected. The Democrats gained 2 House seats in Iowa to take a 3-1 majority, but Republican governor Kim Reynolds was re-elected. The Republicans House majority in North Carolina went from 10-3 to 8-3 pending two special elections in September. District 3 had Republican Walter Jones Jr. die of ALS, and District 9 has a do-over after the Republican who had more votes worked with somebody who was charged with crimes involving absentee ballots. He decided not to run again. In Congress, it takes two-thirds to override a veto, but the North Carolina legislature only requires 60 percent. The Republicans had over 60 percent in both house and were overriding the vetoes by Democratic governor Roy Cooper. The Democrats gained seats so the Republicans have a majority but not 60 percent. Do the Democrats have a chance for senator from Kansas? It may sound impossible, but consider this: 1. They elected a Democratic governor. 2. The Democrats gained went from none to one of four House seats, and one Republican won a close election. 3. For the four House districts combined, Republicans won by 9.4 percent. In 2000, 2012, and 2016, Republican presidential candidates won Kansas by over 20 percent while losing the popular vote. 4. Senator Pat Roberts is retiring, so the Democrats don't need to defeat an incumbent. I doubt Jeff Flake expected the Republicans to lose his seat when he retired. According to Wikipedia, these senators are retiring (X) or have not announced if they will run again (?): 1. Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R- ?) 2. Idaho: Jim Risch (R- ?) 3. Kansas: Pat Roberts (R- X) 4. Maine: Susan Collins (R- ?) 5. Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R- ?) 6. Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R- ?) 7. New Jersey: Cory Booker (D- ?, probably will drop out of the presidential race by next summer) 8. New Mexico: Tom Udall (D- X) 9. Oklahome: Jim Inhofe (R- ?) 10. Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R- X) 11. Virginia: Mark Warner (D- ?) 12. Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R- X) Wikipedia used to list 13 of those senators, so one of them must have recently announced he or she is running again, but I don't know who.
Well Susan Collins has a challenger, if the Dems can't beat her, I do not see them taking the Senate. https://bangordailynews.com/2019/06...oins-race-to-challenge-susan-collins-in-2020/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...jor-recruit-to-take-on-susan-collins-in-2020/
https://politicalwire.com/2019/07/24/paul-mitchell-wont-run-again/ Paul Mitchell (R+13, Michigan) isn't running for re-election. He is a second-term MoC who would be guaranteed to win re-election. He says it's because politics are toxic and he has a 9-year old son. Translation: he's not gonna get to be a committee chair anytime soon.
Do us a favor Susan, go away! Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) “isn’t used to seeing her popularity under water in her home state, but that’s where the Maine Republican finds herself as she decides whether to run for a fifth term next year,” Bloomberg reports. “Collins says she’s focused on preparing for a re-election bid but won’t decide until the early fall whether she’ll run.” Said Collins: “The divisiveness of our country and the unceasing attacks by dark money groups in Maine have clearly had an impact.”
Well....the Republican will have to get an other candidate! “A pro-Trump Republican candidate for Congress who is aiming to unseat Ilhan Omar in Minnesota has been charged with a felony after allegedly stealing from stores,” the Guardian reports. “Danielle Stella was arrested twice this year in Minneapolis suburbs over allegations that she shoplifted items worth more than $2,300 from a Target and goods valued at $40 from a grocery store.”
https://politicalwire.com/2019/07/25/pete-olson-wont-run-again/ Pete Olson (TX-22, R+10) is not running. He narrowly won in 2018 and his opponent is running again. Probably the first Dem pickup of the cycle.
This. If they can't unseat Collins, Dems have almost zero chance of taking the Senate. One seat that I'm surprised has not been mentioned: Tillis in NC. The guy is not popular. Trump is supporting him but the NC GOP is going after him. After ME and CO, that seat could be the third most vulnerable. For Dems to take the Senate, they'd need ME and CO + at least 1 (and probably 2) of NC/GA/IA/AZ with GA probably being the most difficult to flip from that final group of 4. Some of this depends upon the electoral strategy for the Presidential election too. They could really hammer Trump in the Midwest, but that would only flip one Senate seat. If they operate with a bigger map, that opens up NC, GA and AZ more.