The Canada/New Zealand match thread is now open: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/matchday-9-e21-canada-new-zealand.2104466/
With two games played in most groups my first impression of this tournament is the difference in quality of play. 1. minnows have learned to defend with the exception of the implosion of Thailand 2. grass instead of turf leads to less misplaced passes and better passing play in general 3. more "tight" games with a goal difference of <=1 4. favorites not impressive at all: Germany, Japan, Spain, Netherlands,England
How are we favorites? We have done very well at the youth level but our senior team has never done anything. At least those others you mentioned have done something of note at the senior women level.
Perhaps Sweden or Norway? Not sure. Just puzzled that I see people refer to us as favorites (not only here but I saw it on another thread as well). This is only our 2nd world cup and we got our first win ever in a world cup this time around. Their goal has always been just to make it out of the group stage, anything else is a bonus.
@kolabear can provide the direct evidence, but Spain have generally been performing as well as that 5-8 block of nations over the past year or two. The senior team may have never done anything impressive at the Euro or WWC but have generally done well recently. In fact, I think it says something that the lack of production in 2015 and 2017 were justifiably considered under-performances. Spain has the talent and the chemistry. Think of them now as most people saw France a cycle or two ago - a quite good squad that just choked at the wrong times.
For all the talk of the depth and potential parity in the tournament, so far it’s been all-favorites...the only semi-surprise would be Italy, I guess. The biggest stories so far (Italy aside) have been celebration-gate, favorites being mediocre, and underdogs playing decent defense. Who will be the biggest surprise team to make it through...or miss out?
Spain. Because they consist of Barca and Atleti players and Barca have now reached the CL final numerous times.
Quarterfinals is a good target although this year I don't think that will happen. We will most likely draw China 0-0 and then lose to the US 3 or 4-0 in the first round.
I said it last time we posted. The staff had considered things already. You assume you’re smarter than the pros.
We have a thread for the 4th place teams and who'll be worst of the tournament, but we don't have a thread for all the permutations of 3rd place teams... So I'll try that here now! I'm going to ignore highly unlikely scenarios, e.g. FRA losing to NGA or GER losing to RSA, so with that in mind, and trying to go from most to least likely... GROUP A possibilities: : 3pts, at most -2 GD (many possibilities but probably NGA) : 4pts, -1GD (NGA) : 3pts, +1GD to -1GD (NOR) : 3pts, at least -1GD (KOR) GROUP B possibilities: : 3pts, at most -1 GD (CHN) : 4pts, =0GD (CHN) : 3pts, at most =0 GD (ESP) GROUP C possibilities: : 6pts, +1GD to +4GD (many possibilities) : 4pts, +2GD (BRA) : 4pts, =0GD (AUS) : 3pts, at most +1GD (BRA) : 6pts, at most 0GD (ITA) GROUP D possibilities: (not in likelihood order here since both matches look like toss-ups to me) : 4pts, at least +1GD (ARG) : 4pts, =0GD (ARG or JPN) : 4pts, at most -1GD (JPN) : 3pts, at least -1GD (SCO) : 2pts, -1GD (ARG) GROUP E possibilities: : 3pts, at least -1 GD (NZL or CMR) : 1pt, -2GD (CMR) GROUP F possibilities: : 3pts, at least -4GD (CHL) : 3pts, at least -16GD (THA) : 1pt, -5GD (CHL) TLDR: 4pts guarantees you getting into the R16 due to two groups (E+F) maxing out at 3pts. 2pts could get you in IF both E and F have draws, but that's not likely, and of course 1pt doesn't get you through. Of all of the 3pt possibilities, there are two groups that have a cap on the possible GDs* (0 in B and +1 in C) so 3pts and a +2GD would also guarantee* you going through unless 3rd in B or C has 4-6pts, circumventing the cap. That said, the floor for GD in group F makes it unlikely that a team from there goes through. I would also highly suspect that group A's 3rd place team probably won't have a GD higher than -2. So, for the sake of argument, I would bet that the groups with 3rd-place teams going through are B, C, D, and E (though a draw in group E or a strong CHL win in F could upset that). That would mean we'd see A1vC3, B1vD3, C1vB3, and D1vE3. *this is, of course, ignoring some highly unlikely scenarios as mentioned earlier
On another general discussion note: While we've seen a couple of upsets this tournament so far (NGA over KOR, ITA over AUS) and some close matches, when it comes down to W/D/L, there hasn't been much parity in the tournament, in the sense that the pot draws/FIFA rankings have been entirely predictive. We've even only had one outright draw so far this tournament (ARG v JPN) - I noticed in my glance-through above that "2pts" only appeared once and "5pts" didin't appear at all as possibilities. That said, we could have a lot of fireworks in the third group matchday, and several matches have been much closer than the Rankings might suggest, but it's interesting that raw results so far have been almost entirely expected.
The USA's goalkeeper lives upstairs and has had enough of your house party pic.twitter.com/mlSEdnB2op— Adam Hurrey (@FootballCliches) June 16, 2019