Absolutely and that's why I'm against expansion. The only teams who are going to generate enough new TV viewers to justify the split are maybe (1) the largest remaining cities (Detroit, Phoenix) and even there I'm not sure since they are also splitting the neutral national TV fans, and (2) teams that can generate national buzz like Atlanta. Sacramento, Charlotte, etc. just don't seem to have enough upside. Expansion at this point is about treading water and generating some cash (although not even that much in the big picture). Moving forward involves improving the teams currently in the big cities.
gotta keep collecting those expansion fees to stay in business. I disagree with Garber's/MLS's assessment that that level of play has continued to improve (overall). More teams will further dilute that. I also agree that the schedule will obviously be even more uneven. TV ratings have never been any good. I don't see that changing when all sports are seeing ratings go down.
Phoenix is an awful sports town. They don't really support the D-Backs, the Coyotes, Cards, or Suns. 'Course, being terrible at all of those sports is certainly a contributing factor. Not sure MLS is going to like quarter-filled 120-degree stadiums in Spring/Summer. At night it sometimes doesn't get below 100. It's from all the concrete and asphalt radiating heat after baking during the day.
I don't think MLS ever goes beyond 32 teams. They'll follow the same formula as the other major leagues in the US; 30-32 teams. Sure they'll leave potential entrance fees, but those are one time fees and the owners have to think about revenue sharing over decades. The NFL, MLB, and NBA could easily get 10 figures for an expansion franchise in some of the same cities that are now clamoring for MLS teams. They don't because the economics of revenue sharing stop working at a certain point. Besides that I think you need some open markets to continue to push the values of franchises up. If you can simply buy into a new market vs purchase an existing team, that devalues those teams and also drives down entrance fees. The supply can not be infinite. Supply and Demand applies. Then you also have to think about watering down the talent pool. MLS is perhaps more immune to that than the other domestic pro leagues because there is a far larger pool of foreign talent, however, domestic talent only stretches so far. I think 32 teams is the ultimate number, though I expect a pause at 30. The new investors MLS is bringing in are truly impressive, but they could also use some of that money to flow into existing markets to rejuvenate some of the more moribund teams in the league.
The talk about TV money needing to be worth the addition is correct, but to that end I feel very safe in assuming that Garber and Co. have been communicating with their broadcast partners about the potential additions. This isn't a conversation MLS does over drinks at Applebee's. (Though I do enjoy cheap long islands.)
I don't agree with you or @superdave, though I do see your points. There is more to the revenues than just the fairly simple add and subtract here. You also have player pool reach and engagement locally and a bunch of other things that add to the value of a new team. I also think part of this is perception. We in the US are conditioned to a major league having somewhere in the 30-32 teams spread across the nation (and Canada) in some fairly recognizable places. Now each league has its own quirks to those distributions, but they're there. The fastest way to be perceived as minor league is a small number of teams. Look at Major League Lacrosse, for example. It's possibly the best lacrosse league in the world, but it only has 9 teams and is completely small time. MLS wants to be one of the big boys, and in the US, this is how they do it.
Phoenix is not an awful sports town. That's a fallacy. We draw 1.7 million fans for Spring Training baseball. The Phoenix Open draws more fans than any golf tournament in the country. The Cards sellout every game. The Suns and D-Backs have meh ownership and the Coyotes are located in the worst possible spot for a hockey team. The Rising have put together a great ownership group and an ideal stadium location that requires zero public approval and no public funding. I'm not sure what you are talking about with a quarter filled stadium, but they are proposing a 22,000 seat climate controlled stadium at a cost of $250mln with zero public funding located @ the intersection of the 101 and 202, which is about as perfect a spot as you can find for a soccer team. Besides that, you're talking about a metro area that is currently @ 4.8mln and projected to top 6 mln within 10 years. The same crap was said about Atlanta being a crappy sports town, how'd that turn out? I think one advantage that soccer would have is that people moving here, by and large, don't have life time allegiances to other teams (like I do, for example, with the Cubs). The Rising have excellent attendance and are a well run group already. If MLS passed us up for another stagnant Midwest market, that would be stupid.
There are two ways to look at the academies. One is, hey, more players! That perspective thinks MLS will get more relevant and lucrative as the USMNT gets better. The other is, again, bigger pie but more pieces so do you really gain? In my opinion, MLS has no chance to make a meaningful move up in quality among world leagues until the US player significantly improves relative the number of teams. So adding STL and Phoenix is useful in that regard. I don’t think anyplace else is. If MLS has an expansion strategy more complicated than bigger is better, I don’t see it. That’s the only commonality tying together Miami AND Cincy AND Phoenix. Each has a positive, but there’s no overlap in what that positive is. Each has a unique selling point.
MLS Commissioner Don Garber: League in talks with Las Vegas over expansion franchise When asked about a location for a possible 30th franchise, Garber mentioned Las Vegas as a possible landing spot. “I don't know that we have a firm handle yet on what the final number of teams in the league ought to be,” Garber said. “We of late have been in very positive discussions in Las Vegas and in Charlotte. We still believe Phoenix is a good market. We have been in discussions with Detroit. I will say that we are going to take our time on team 30.” Detroit doesn't get a "very positive" or a "good market" just "also Detroit"... Looks like St Louis and Sacramento and then 30 could be between Phoenix and Las Vegas... (or maybe San Diego gets into the mix again, in any case all three are "southwest"). I hope Phoenix and Vegas have plans to control stadium temperature so players don't die in that heat.... How much would it matter if Phoenix was an awful sports town? Atlanta was an awful sports town until Atlanta United came along...
So.. Based on people saying the same thing about Atlanta, we can look forward to Phoenix getting 40k a game then? If only there were a way in which soccer could be played indoors..
The first. At least the second one is debatable, though I disagree. The first one relies on the assumption that a dozen or so billionaires across a decade of time are complete idiots that keep buying into what would be a failing business without them.
The Rising already have the land and plans for a climate controlled stadium that is at least on par with what Sacramento and St. Louis have proposed. I honestly don't know what is holding us back. We also recently brought in another big money Chinese investor (the owner of Ligue Un's Nice). Not to mention we just secured naming rights for our existing stadium. The local ownership group (while it doesn't feature billionaires) are made up of some of the top businessman and developers in the valley. I'm not sure what box we don't check. Perhaps Garber wants to see one more more big money investor, I don't know. It's a bit disheartening, but I will say his expansion strategy resulted in far stronger situations in St. Louis and Sacramento, so..... https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...ls-renderings-proposed-mls-stadium/430960002/
But, aren't a lot of those spring training fans coming from out of town, or snowbirds who leave once it becomes seriously summer?
Some yeah, but a ton of people in this town take in the games too and not just old people. The games @ places like Sloan and Scottsdale Stadium are an event. Besides that, is it a bad thing that we draw millions of tourists every year?
Location, location, location. Sports rights are starting to become Content, Content, and more Content. More teams equal more content equal more tv money. If ratings aren't great , you need volume.
I have posted similar post before but... I am a '96er (been following the league since day one), and I have always longed for the league to grow and expand. However, as it continues to grow I find myself disconnecting more and more. I used to be able to keep up with all the teams and watch some of almost all the games. It had a close knit feeling. Now it has lost that for me. None of this to say they should stop growing. Just expressing my thoughts and feelings.
I don’t see the league going to 40 but I think some of the people assuming MLS will match the other leagues at 30-32 are missing some of the differences. Only the NHL has more (or even as many) Canadian teams as MLS. Also we’ve seen that smaller markets can support a MLS team, making it easier to expand. I’d expect the league to end up in the 34-36 range.
I really want Sacramento to get into MLS. BUT... I was also around in San Jose in the late 1970s and early 1980s, watching the NASL go absolutely apeshit with overexpansion, using expansion fees from non-soccer-savvy new owners to float current ops budgets, and spending lavishly on overseas players rather than developing talent here in the states. I do not like what's going on in MLS right now. I am skeptical that there's enough domestic talent to take on this many new teams, particularly going out to 32 teams. The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.
I know MLS is a completely different animal and I will probably get roasted for saying this, but I agree. I am concerned at how fast they are doing this. It is starting to have the feeling of some who are after the quick cash of $150-200 million expansion fees.