How regional leagues would look like in USA

As a side project, I developed an ideia of how regional leagues would be in America. I already had some side projects of data gathering and just merged both and had a cool result. I'll share how would it be with you guys.

First of all, what is a regional league? It is paralell league to the national league, it works separately and brings together clubs from any national division, you could see New York Cosmos playing against New York City every year for the regional league even them playing in different national leagues. The best example of this kind of league is the state league system in Brazil. The minor state leagues play also a regional league (Copa Nordeste and Copa Verde), and unifying the minor states is also a goal because how interesting would be a Vermont State League after all?

Why would it be desired?

Let me talk about two major problems of American soccer: level of USMNT and lack of games.

Level of USMNT: The main reason of USMNT’s level not being as great as the main countries is there are not enough men playing soccer. But, how could they? USA is a massive country with a huge talent pool but does not fulfil its potential. The scouting and developing are limited by the small number of clubs playing a relevant championship.

Many gifted players are playing an amateur local match without any scout. It’s not a lack of scouting by the professional clubs per se. Many cities are hours away from any major club, it is virtually impossible to effectively scout such a large area. The tiny number of professional matches in USA is the main point on development of soccer players. The lack of professional leagues opens space for the prospect going to another sport or just abandoning sports even if he would be a good player someday.

There were three professional soccer leagues in USA in 2018: MLS (20 American clubs), USL Championship (33, 18 of them MLS-owned/affiliated), NASL (clubs in hiatus). 53 clubs playing professional soccer league in USA in 2018. There are 32 clubs playing fully professional leagues just in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. 92 only in England.

Countries by proportion of professional clubs per habitant in 2018 (open) Countries by proportion of professional clubs per habitant in 2018 (close)

Source: ogol.com.br​

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Lack of games: Former coach of USMNT, Jürgen Klinsmann criticized the small number of matches back in 2011 because it had a negative effect on his players. One of the most successful franchises, Los Angeles Galaxy played only 5 official matches in 6 months of 2017 (January, February, March, October, November and December). MLS teams can’t build a match fitness properly for CCL, for example. It is not negative only sportive-wise, playing few games has negative impact in the finances. The sponsorship and television pay the clubs an amount for expected games. If the club average 39 matches by season they will receive less from sponsorship than if they had more matches to show their sponsorship. The same is applied for television, their contract with TV depends on how many matches the television can broadcast, and 41 matches by season for the top clubs is too low considering the mean of other leagues.

Average matches played by season in the last 5 seasons (open) Average matches played by season in the last 5 seasons (close)

Source: ogol.com.br​

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So how would it benefit USA soccer?

Interest of Americans for soccer. Engaging local community to its local team or giving them opportunity to watch the main team of the region in their city. Every region would feel closer to soccer. It would attend regions without any club or with clubs with a bad performance in major leagues, increasing the popularity of soccer there, helping local community to play the sport and also improving the development and scouting of promising players. Some cities would have a major club playing in their city for the first time. This kind of championship stimulates local rivalry, strengthening derbies. Rivalry is essential in sports, the community engagement grows with strong rivalries, strengthening the clubs themselves. Cascadia Cup and Portland-Seattle rivalry are examples in MLS itself.

Main matches in each league (open) Main matches in each league (close)

To generate players for USMNT. At the begging, there would be 208 clubs playing in a professional league what would be 392% of the clubs playing in a professional league in 2018. For comparative purposes, only 97 clubs played U.S. Open Cup in 2018, a good part only plays 1 game and if a low-tier team make it to the final they would still only play 9 games. They don’t play enough games to show their prospects properly.

How U.S. system would look like if it had a regional league system. (open) How U.S. system would look like if it had a regional league system. (close)

How U.S. system would look like if it had a regional league system with two divisions. (open) How U.S. system would look like if it had a regional league system with two divisions. (close)

In a scenario of promotion and relegation system between two divisions of regional league, there would be around 416 clubs playing in a professional league in the United States, filling the gap of professional clubs in the huge area of the country. The greatest benefit though would be having a pro/rel system that works without harming MLS investors.

To improve the schedule. How the calendar would get affected by regional leagues is an important subject. One of the points of having a regional league is improving the schedule of MLS clubs what makes illustrating it important.

That was the calendar of Los Angeles Galaxy in 2017 (open) That was the calendar of Los Angeles Galaxy in 2017 (close)

• Yellow: Friendly
• Red: MLS regular season
• Blue: Open Cup

That is how Los Angeles Galaxy calendar would look like if they had advanced as much as they could (open) That is how Los Angeles Galaxy calendar would look like if they had advanced as much as they could (close)

• Green: Regional league
• Red: MLS regular season
• Blue: Open Cup
• Purple: MLS playoffs

That is how many matches the clubs would play by season if they were as successful as they are in MLS (open) That is how many matches the clubs would play by season if they were as successful as they are in MLS (close)

But how profit would it be?

In order to answer the main question, I decided to assume that the difference between the television money of MLS to Campeonato Brasileiro represents the difference of the interesting for soccer and the economy between United States and Brazil. Assuming that this difference would be the same for regional leagues, that is the accontability:

Matchday: Although some minor teams can actually earn a decent money with tickets, most of them make low money meanwhile major teams can have a great revenue with matchdays in the regional league. That is the proportion of the national league to the state league:

Expected attendence (open) Expected attendence (close)

Source: Globo Esporte: Público no Brasil http://app.globoesporte.globo.com/futebol/publico-no-brasil/campeonato-paulista/

TV: But the main money for the minor teams comes from television contracts. Soccer is more popular in Brazil than in USA, Brazilian TV paid around 315 million dollars to the 20 clubs in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A in 2018. MLS contract is more than three times lower and it represents the interest and financial gap between Brazil and United States. Supposing the same gap would represent the difference of interest and finances at regional league level and also taking into account the league potential of São Paulo state and the league potential of each suggested regional league in America, it is how much is expected by each league after they get stabilized:

Expected TV deals (open) Expected TV deals (close)

Source: Diário de Pernambuco: As cotas de TV dos maiores Estaduais de 2018, com R$ 306 milhões para 119 times http://blogs.diariodepernambuco.com...ais-de-2018-com-r-306-milhoes-para-119-times/
Gazeta do Povo: Cotas da TV Globo para o Brasileirão 2018 https://infograficos.gazetadopovo.com.br/esportes/cotas-de-tv-da-globo-para-o-brasileirao-2018/
The Philadelphia Inquirer: MLS, U.S. Soccer officially announce new TV deal with ESPN, Fox, Univision http://www2.philly.com/philly/blogs...unce-new-TV-deal-with-ESPN-Fox-Univision.html​

The format of the championship: MLS clubs average 39 matches per season. The goal of playing between 50 and 60 official matches per season can be assured through regional leagues which should about 14 matches each season. Suggestion:

In the first stage the sixteen teams are drawn, with seeding, into four groups of four teams each, with each team playing once against the twelve clubs from the other three groups. After each team has played twelve matches, the top two teams of each group qualify for the quarter-final stage. Quarter-finals are played in a single match, with the best placed first stage team playing at home. The semi-finals OR finals are played in a two-legged home and away fixture, with the best placed first stage team playing the second leg at home meanwhile the other is played as the quarter-finals.

Finally, that's the criteria that I stipulated for the potential of the regional leagues:

0 – 15 clubs: Low;
16 – 18 clubs: Medium;
19+ clubs: High.

Criteria for formation of the leagues:

• The minor region is a single state;
• Regional leagues must be the smallest possible;
• Any state with low profit potential must join a regional league OR decrease the number of clubs in the league.

I opted to include even UPSL, USL2 and NPSL teams to give a panorama, it doesn't mean that amateur teams should be allowed in this type of league.

 

Cascadia League (open) Cascadia League (close)

British Columbia, Oregon, and Washington. Attended population: 16 million
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MLS Portland Timbers, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps USL2 Lane United, FC Rovers, Victoria Highlanders NPSL Kitsap Pumas, Mulhouse Portland, OSA, PDX, Spokane Shadow UPSL Southern Oregon Starphire

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Seattle, Portland, Vancouver 1 club Richland, Olympia, Bremerton, Spokane, Yakima, Bellingham, Salem, Eugene, Medford, Victoria

League Potential: 16 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: Medium




· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 2 – 3;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 3;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 2 to 5 times out of 16 matches.

California League (open) California League (close)

California. Attended population: 39.5 million​

MLS Los Angeles FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, San Jose Earthquake USL Fresno FC, Sacramento Republic USL2 Golden State Force, San Francisco City FC, San Francisco Glens, Santa Cruz Breakers, Southern California Seahorses, Ventura County Fusion NPSL Academica SC, Aguiluchos USA, ASC San Diego, FC David, East Bay Stompers, FC Golden State, Napa Valley 1839, Orange County FC, Oxnard Guerreros FC, Riverside Coras, Sacramento Gold, Sonoma County Sol, Temecula

Potential of the Cities:

4 clubs Los Angeles, 2 clubs San Francisco, San Diego, San Bernardino, Sacramento, San Jose, 1 club Fresno, Bakersfield, Ventura, Stockton, Modesto, Santa Rosa, Visalia, Santa Barbara, Fairfield, Salinas, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz, Merced, Chico

League Potential: 28 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 2 – 3;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 4;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 2 to 5 times out of 16 matches.

Mountain League (open) Mountain League (close)

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Attended population: 24,1 million​

MLS Real Salt Lake, Colorado Rapids USL Phoenix Rising, Reno 1868, Las Vegas Lights, Colorado Springs USL2 Albuquerque Sol FC, Ogden City SC NPSL FC Arizona UPSL Arizona Scorpions, MSC United, Sporting Arizona, Colorado Rush, GAM United, Indios Denver, Logroñes Denver, Boise Cutthroats, Nevada Coyotes, FC Grande, San Juan FC, Utah Saints

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Phoenix, Tucson, Salt Lake City, Denver, Las Vegas 1 club Albuquerque, Prescott, Kingman, Yuma, Las Cruces, Ogden, Provo, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, Boulder, Greeley, Reno, Boise City, Coeur d’Alene

League Potential: 24 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 1 – 2;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 3;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 1 to 3 times out of 16 matches.

Texas League (open) Texas League (close)

Texas. Attended population: 28.3 million​

MLS FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo USL San Antonio FC USL2 AHFC Royals, Brazos Valley Cavalry, FC Cleburne, Corpus Christi FC, Houston FC, Texas United NPSL FC Brownsville, Dallas City, Fort Worth Vaqueros, Houston Dutch Lions, Houston Regals, Katy 1895, Laredo Heat, Midland-Odessa Sockers, Tyler FC

Potential of the Cities:

3 clubs Dallas, Houston 2 clubs San Antonio, Austin 1 club McAllen, El Paso, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Killeen, Beaumont, Midland, Lubbock, Laredo, Waco, Amarillo, College Station, Tyler, Longview

League Potential: 24 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 1 – 2;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 3;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 1 to 3 times out of 16 matches.

Central League (open) Central League (close)

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Attended population: 30.8 million​

MLS Minnesota United, Chicago Fire USL2 Des Moines Menace, Chicago United NPSL Dakota Fusion, Duluth FC, La Crosse Aris, Milwaukee Torrent, Minneapolis City, Minnesota TwinStars, Sioux Falls Thunder, Viejos Son Los Trapos UPSL Union Dubuque, FC Minneapolis, Granite City FC, Nebraska Bugeaters, Croatian Eagles SC, Green Bay United, Madison 56ers, Milwaukee Bavarian

Potential of the Cities:

4 clubs Chicago 2 clubs Twin Cities, Milwaukee 1 club Fargo, Sioux Falls, Duluth, Rochester, St. Cloud, Omaha, Lincoln, Green Bay, Appleton, Racine, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Springfield, Rockford, Peoria, Moline, Champaign

League Potential: 25 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High




· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 1 – 2;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 3;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 1 to 3 times out of 16 matches.

 

Great Lakes League (open) Great Lakes League (close)

Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Attended population: 28.3 million​

MLS Columbus Crew, USL FC Cincinnati, Indy Eleven USL2 Cincinnati Dutch Lions, Dayton Dutch Lions, Michigan Bucks NPSL AFC Ann Arbor, Cleveland SC, FC Columbus, Detroit City FC, Grand Rapids FC, Kalamazoo FC, FC Indiana

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Indianapolis, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland 1 club Lansing, Flint, Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo, Dayton, Akron, Toledo, Youngstown, Canton, Elkhart, Lafayette, Evansville, Fort Wayne

League Potential: 25 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High




· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

South Central League (open) South Central League (close)

Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Attended population: 20.6 million​

MLS Sporting Kansas City USL Saint Louis FC, Tulsa Roughnecks, OKC Energy USL2 St. Louis Lions NPSL Demize, Little Rock Rangers, Ozark FC, Saint Louis CA, Tulsa Athletic, FC Wichita UPSL Barilleros, Santa Fe Wanderers, Quinto Elemento FC, St. Louis Maritsa, OKC 1889

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Kansas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, New Orleans 1 club Wichita Falls, Topeka, Springfield, Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Shreveport, Houma, Lake Charles

League Potential: 18 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: Medium



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

East South-Central League (open) East South-Central League (close)

Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Attended population: 19 million​

USL Louisville City, Nashville SC USL2 Birmingham Hammers, Memphis City FC, Mississippi Brilla, Tri-Cities Otters, Derby City Rovers NPSL Chattanooga FC, Emerald Force, Inter Nashville

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Louisville 1 club Jackson, Gulfport, Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Daphne, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Bristol, Clarksville, Johnson City, Lexington

League Potential: 21 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· No MLS side in this league.

Florida League (open) Florida League (close)

Florida. Attended population: 20.9 million​

MLS Orlando City USL Tampa Bay Rowdies NASL Jacksonville Armada, Miami FC USL2 FC Miami City, IMG Academy Bradenton, Lakeland Tropics, Next Academy Palm Beach, North County United, SIMA Águilas, The Villages SC, Weston FC NPSL Boca Raton FC, Miami United, Naples United, Palm Beach United, Storm FC

Potential of the Cities:

3 clubs Miami 2 clubs Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville 1 club Sarasota, Fort Myers, Lakeland, Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Pensacola, Port St Lucie, Tallahassee, Naples, Ocala, Gainesville, Destin

League Potential: 21 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

South Atlantic League (open) South Atlantic League (close)

Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Attended population: 25.7 million​

MLS Atlanta United USL Charleston Battery, Charlotte Independence, North Carolina FC USL2 Carolina Dynamo, Charlotte Eagles, Myrtle Beach Mutiny, Tobacco Road FC, Peachtree City, SC United Bantams NPSL Asheville City, Atlanta Silverbacks, Georgia Revolution, Greenville FC UPSL Savannah Clovers FC, Reno United, Seas Jamaica, Vahi Athletic, FC Cardinals, Broncos United, San Lee FC, Union FC, Soda City FC, Sparta 20/20 FC

Potential of the Cities:

3 clubs Atlanta 2 clubs Charlotte, Raleigh 1 club Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, Macon, Athens, Greenville, Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Spartanburg, Beaufort, Florence, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Durham, Asheville, Fayetteville, Hickory, Wilmington, Jacksonville

League Potential: 27 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

 

Eastern League (open) Eastern League (close)

Maryland, Virginia, Washington DC, and West Virginia. Attended population: 17 million​

MLS D.C. United USL Richmond Kickers USL2 Lionsbridge FC, Evergreen FC, West Virginia Chaos NPSL FC Baltimore, Charlottesville Alliance, FC Frederick, Legacy 76, Nothern Virginia United, Virginia Beach City UPSL Catrachos de INCAEF, Germantown City, SGFC Eagles, C-Ville FC, Nothern Virginia FC

Potential of the Cities:

3 clubs Washington D.C. 2 clubs Norfolk, Richmond, Baltimore 1 club Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Salisbury, Hagerstown, Huntington, Charleston

League Potential: 16 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: Medium



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

Mid Atlantic League (open) Mid Atlantic League (close)

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Attended population: 42.6 million​

MLS Philadelphia Union, New York City, New York Red Bulls USL Penn FC, Pittsburgh Riverhounds, Bethlehem Steel NASL New York Cosmos USL2 Westchester Flames, FA Euro New York, Lehigh Valley United, Long Island Rough Riders, Ocean City Nor’easters, Reading United NPSL Atlantic City FC, Brooklyn Italians, FC Buffalo, Electric City Shock, Erie Commodores, Fort Pitt Regiment, Greater Binghamton Thunder, Hershey FC, Junior Lone Star, Kingston Stockade, FC Monmouth, FC Motown, New Jersey Copa, New York Athletic Club, Rochester Lancers, Syracuse FC, Torch FC, TSF, West Chester United

Potential of the Cities:

4 clubs New York 3 clubs Philadelphia 2 clubs Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester 1 club Allentown, Harrisburg, Scranton, York, Reading, Erie, Trenton, Atlantic City, Newark, Albany, Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton

League Potential: 26 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: High



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 2 – 3;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 3;
· An MLS side could face another MLS side from 2 to 5 times out of 16 matches.

New England League (open) New England League (close)

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Attended population: 14.8 million​

MLS New England Revolution USL2 Black Rock, Boston Bolts, AC Connecticut, Portland Phoenix, Seacoast United Phantoms, Western Mass Pioneers NPSL Boston City, Elm City Express, Greater Lowell, Hartford City, Rhode Island Reds, Seacoast United Mariners UPSL Boston Siege, Juve-Pro Soccer, Lynn United, New Hampshire Rapids, Safira FC, Unations FC, International SC, Lincoln CF

Potential of the Cities:

2 clubs Hartford, Boston, Providence 1 club Stamford, New Haven, Norwich, Worcester, Springfield (MA), Barnstable Town, Burlington, Nashua, Claremont, Portland (ME)

League Potential: 16 clubs

Structure: 16 clubs

Profit potential: Medium



· Possible matches by each team: 12 – 16;
· Possible MLS confrontation in group stage: 0 – 1;
· Possible MLS confrontation in playoffs: 0 – 2;
· An MLS side couldn’t face another MLS side.

 

No, I am sure that they have one fully professional league at least, I'm not sure if their second division is fully professional or semi-professional. But I suppose it is the last one for not having any source saying otherwise.

Every system league is regional in minor levels due travel costs that minor teams can't afford to.

Regional leagues is not about it. It is about teams from different national divisions playing the same league and as far as I know only Brazil has this system (I would be happy to be introduced to a similar system though).

The interesting is not the same of the national league and I didn't suppose it was the same. I talk about the difference of interest level in Brazilian state leagues and assumed the same would happen to United States regional leagues

 

Nice to know it! What was the name of the leagues to I do some research? I like this concept.

I'm aware of this discussion about playing or not in February. If we assume that is impossible to play in February in USA, it's possible to move from February to March and from October to November and early December like it already is. But the playoffs of MLS wouldn't have so much space between the matches, which is a good thing imo, spaced playoffs are pretty anticlimax.

Actually I would say the decades-old club rivalries are based on state league. The rivalries in Brazil are always in the same state, there is no big derby outside of the state, like we see Real Madrid vs. Barcelona or Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern München.

I would not say that. NPSL clubs are semiprofessional and any semiprofessional club play often in front of fewer 100 people, it is like that in Brazil too and pretty much everywhere.

I brought some datas here to compare the attendence. We know MLS has a bigger attendence than the Campeonato Brasileiro. So I went for comparing the second division.

Brazil second division (open) Brazil second division (close)

U.S. second division (open) U.S. second division (close)

We can see if we exclude the MLS-owned clubs (such as LAG II, NYRB II, Atlanta 2...), USL has a better attendence than the second division of Brazil (which has a worse attendence than the main state leagues).

 

Last time NYCFC played Cosmos in a competitive match was in 2015 for the US Open Cup, Cosmos were playing home and it got an attendence of 11,837 which is the maximum capacity of Hofstra's Shuart Stadium https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2015-06-17-new-york-cosmos-vs-new-york-city-fc/recap

For the same championship, in the same year, in the same round, Sounders played Timbers and 4,022 attended that match. No doubt about how interesting is this match though https://www.soundersfc.com/post/201...unt-us-open-cup-fourth-round-against-portland