Yes! It was so obvious from the pictures of your first five mock-draws that it jumped to my eyes well before I read this last post of yours with all of the detailed stats. Since Japan is the team I root for and Italy is my country (and I wish it could do well, 20 years after its last WWC), I really, really hope that the Japan-Italy pairing is not as likely as your simulations would suggest! The last thing I want to see is a Japan-Italy match where I have to wish for Japan to eliminate my own country from the tournament.
Would you care to elaborate? Why do you think it's so likely? I vaguely remember (from I-don't-know-which-thread-either) a discussion about Sinclair being very close to the record, but, if I remember correctly, someone had retorted that, to actually break it, she would need an average number of goals per game well higher than the one from her last pair of seasons (although perfectly in line with the overall average from her whole career). There are other players, beyond her, who are very close to the record?
After simulating the draw many times, I did not manage to find an easy one for France I mean we can get Thailand and Cameroon, but all the teams from the second pot are tough... There are so many restrictions on confederations and rightly so that it is like a pre -orientated draw.
actually Sinc is getting very close. now if CA only do what Ellis does; play tomato cans........... List of women's footballers with 100 or more international goals - Wikipedia
Wambach only scored 17 goals under Ellis, most of which were either in official competitions or against moderately good UEFA sides. You need to recalibrate your canned lines. Yeah, it was Sinc, and I was the one who piped in about her stats. Her career average is scoring two goals per every three games, which she managed to do in 2018 thanks to a four-goal performance in the Gold Cup. She needs eight goals to surpass Wambach, which would in theory means she needs to play 12 games before the WWC is over if she wants to break the record during the WWC, if working at her career pace. Canada usually plays ~20 games in WWC years, so it's definitely believable, though between a stellar 2012 and an "average" 2018, she only managed 26 goals in 75 games from 2013-2017, or literally half her average career pace. (And, considering how many goals Canada scored overall in the Gold Cup, I would say her 2018 was probably under expectations too.) I think she has a good chance of breaking the record if she plays into 2019, but I don't think it'll happen at the WWC unless she has a big return to form - which her 2018 NWSL season didn't really suggest would happen. (Also worth pointing out that Canada scored a grand total of four goals at the WWC they hosted, and only one goal in the WWC before that - which doesn't inspire confidence for a single player scoring more than that this time around.)
I feel like she will probably retire at the '19 WWC. Therefore, if she doesn't break the record by the end of the WWC, maybe she never will. Although, extending her career to include the '20 Olympics isn't unreasonable to expect either.
Alright, it's kinda late, but I did three more random.org draws, and toad455 did a draw too, to bring our group total up to 11. STT draw 6: STT draw 7: STT draw 8: Updated stats in a moment!
Here are all the group pairings that happen 4+ times out of 11: FRA -- NED USA -- SWE (no more dominant pot 4 pairing) GER -- ARG (no more CHN in pot 3) ENG -- KORx5, JAM (no more THA in pot 3 or CMR in pot 4) CAN -- ITA, CHI, CMR (no more CHN in pot 3) AUS -- NOR, NZLx5, SCO (no more dominant pot 4 pairing) (I think the sudden appearances of NED, SWE, and NOR as "common" pot1-pot2 pairings are noise, and partially forcing each other. There's no reason for any confederation things to be forced at the time of picking pot2 teams. OTOH, we're definitely seeing how doing just 7 draws earlier didn't to good statistics, as a ton of "common" pairings are getting washed out now, with equivalency between confederation choices.) NED -- CHNx6, CHI JPN -- ITAx6, SCO SWE -- THAx5 (no more dominant pot 4 pairing) BRA -- SCOx5, CMR (no more JAM in pot 4) ESP -- THA, JAM NOR -- KOR (A few more pot 4 pairings falling away, and some strengthening of pot2-pot3 relationships, which I think makes sense with necessary UEFA- and AFC-balancing.) KOR -- RSAx5 CHN -- CHI, ARG ITA -- NIG SCO -- ARG NZL -- JAM (no more NIG) THA -- none new (Aaaannnd all of a sudden, there's a ton more pot3-pot4 "common" pairings... IDK what's up now, especially since there isn't much logic. One AFC team is favoring CAF, the other is favoring C'BOL? And the same oddity for the two UEFA teams? Thanks, random.org, now I feel like I gotta do five more draws to up the statistics again) Japan's pot 3 probabilities are the most lopsided anywhere in the draw, and if you look it's not too hard to see why: it's the necessary UEFA- and AFC-balancing at play. By being an AFC team, Japan only has 3 choices in pot 3 to begin with - but there's also a 1/2 chance that Japan's pot 1 partner is NOT a UEFA team, so there's only a 1/6 chance that Japan can get NZL in their group. Our group of 11 seems far away from a 1/6 chance, but 2/12 draws (which would match a 1/6 chance) is just one more draw away from 1/11 draws. Why doesn't Australia have the same lopsidedness for their pot 3 team? Well, pot 2 is 2/3 UEFA, so there's less pressure on pot 3 to provide the UEFA team in Australia's group. That said, our draws are letting Australia get New Zealand about twice as often (5/11 draws) than I would expect (2/9 chance).
Alright, so with the one extra data point to bring us up to 12 total draws, here's a pared down list of all pairings that happen at least 5 times: FRA-NED ENG-KOR CAN-ITA CAN-CHI AUS-NZL AUS-SCO NED-CHN (x7!!) JPN-ITA (x7!!) ESP-JAM NOR-KOR KOR-RSA SCO-ARG NZL-JAM
Yes, I noticed that from two other Japan-Italy occurrences, one in one of your draws and one in Lechus7's. I anyway hope it won't happen.
Stephanie Frappart selected among the World Cup referees Stéphanie Frappart (34 ans) est nommée par la FIFA parmi les 27 arbitres centrales retenues pour la Coupe du Monde féminine 2019 ! Elle sera épaulée par l’assistante Manuela Nicolosi🇫🇷Coupe du Monde 2015 ✔J.O 2016 ✔Euro 2017 ✔Mondial U20 2018 ✔Coupe du Monde 2019🔜 pic.twitter.com/8DKo0aYcA7— FFF (@FFF) December 3, 2018
The referees (27; some of whom will strictly be 4ths): AFC: 1. JACEWICZ Kate (AUS) 2. QIN Liang (CHN) 3. REIBELT Casey (AUS) 4. RI Hyang Ok (PRK) 5. YAMASHITA Yoshimi (JPN) CAF: 1. ABEBE Lidya Tafesse (ETH) 2. LENGWE Gladys (ZAM) 3. MUKANSANGA Salima (RWA) UEFA: 1. ADAMKOVA Jana (CZE) 2. BRAZ Sandra (POR) 3. FRAPPART Stephanie (FRA) 4. HUSSEIN Riem (GER) 5. KULCSAR Katalin (HUN) 6. MONZUL Kateryna (UKR) 7. PUSTOVOYTOVA Anastasia (RUS) 8. STAUBLI Esther (SUI) 9. STEINHAUS Bibiana (GER) CONMEBOL: 1. ALVES BATISTA Edina (BRA) 2. CARVAJAL Maria (CHI) 3. FORTUNATO Laura (ARG) 4. UMPIERREZ Claudia (URU) CONCACAF: 1. BEAUDOIN Marie-Soleil (CAN) 2. BORJAS Melissa (HON) 3. CHENARD Carol Anne (CAN) 4. KOROLEVA Ekaterina (USA) 5. VENEGAS Lucila (MEX) OFC: 1. KEIGHLEY Anna-Marie (NZL) Assistant Referees (44): AFC: 1. BOZONO Makoto (JPN) 2. CUI Yongmei (CHN) 3. FANG Yan (CHN) 4. HAGIO Maiko (JPN) 5. HONG Kum Nyo (PRK) 6. KIM Kyoung Min (KOR) 7. LEE Seul Gi (KOR) 8. TESHIROGI Naomi (JPN) CAF: 1. KWIMBIRA Bernadettar (MWI) 2. NJOROGE Mary (KEN) 3. RAKOTOZAFINORO Lidwine (MAD) 4. VICTOIRE Queency (MRI) UEFA: 1. ARDASHEVA Oleksandra (UKR) 2. COCKBURN Kylie (SCO) 3. IUGULESCU Petruta (ROU) 4. KOUROMPYLIA Chrysoula (GRE) 5. KUNG Susanne (SUI) 6. KUROCHKINA Ekaterina (RUS) 7. MAGNUSSON Julia (SWE) 8. MASSEY Sian (ENG) 9. NICOLOSI Manuela (FRA) 10. O'NEILL Michelle (IRL) 11. RAFALSKI Katrin (GER) 12. RASHID Lisa (ENG) 13. RATAJOVA Lucie (CZE) 14. RODAK Sanja (CRO) 15. STRILETSKA Maryna (UKR) 16. SUKENIKOVA Maria (SVK) 17. TEPUSA Mihaela (ROU) 18. TOROK Katalin (HUN) CONMEBOL: 1. AMBOYA Monica (ECU) 2. BACK Neuza (BRA) 3. BLANCO Mary (COL) 4. DE ALMEIDA Mariana (ARG) 5. MASCARANA Luciana (URU) 6. SACILOTTI Tatiane (BRA) 7. TOLOZA Loreto (CHI) 8. VASQUEZ Leslie (CHI) CONCACAF: 1. BOUDREAU Chantal (CAN) 2. BROWN Princess (JAM) 3. CAUDILLO Enedina (MEX) 4. CHAVEZ Mayte (MEX) 5. MARISCAL Felisha (USA) 6. NESBITT Kathryn (USA) 7. PERELLO Shirley (HON) 8. YEE SING Stephanie (JAM) OFC: 1. JONES Sarah (NZL) 2. SALAMASINA Maria (SAM)
Well, the usual "big names" are all there, apparently (some of them maybe a little too old, by now, for the biggest stage, but anyway...) Anyone missing from the "usual suspects"? I don't remember of any "high profile" referee from the last years that's not been selected, but I could be wrong. In the latest years, I've grown to appreciate a lot North Korean Ri Hyong Ok. Of course, I've been more exposed to her than others, since I watch a lot of Asian tournaments to follow Nadeshiko Japan teams, but she seemed really quite good to me: a respectful but commanding attitude, lets the game flow but tends to protect the good players and doesn't condone dirty game, not afraid of taking decisions and in general quite accurate with her calls (although of course not flawless: nobody is). She directed the final of AFC Asian Cup 2018 quite well, I'd say, and she's more than ready to get "big games" at WWC. Quite unrelated, but Uruguayan referee's name always cracks me up: Umpierrez the umpire!
In theory, out of 12 draws, you would expect JPN-ITA 5 times, JPN-SCO 5 times, and JPN-NZL 2 times. our 12 draws are slightly favoring JPN-ITA more than they should, but it's still close to a 50% chance that it'll happen.
Okay, only seeing this now thanks to blissett liking my previous post (You ninja'd me AGAIN!) Anyway, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison between that table in the PDF and the stats I'm collecting on our set of sample draws, since what we're doing here is finding the probability of a result in a single group stage draw instead of looking at how often teams face each other over the full course of several tournaments. The most obvious difference is that the latter includes KO matches, and because of that, it's unsurprisingly filled with matchups between traditionally strong teams - in fact, every one of those pairs includes either the USA or Germany, and in 8 of the matches the other country has qualified at least 6 of the previous 7 tournaments. Conversely, traditionally-strong countries aren't highly likely to meet each other in our collection of group stage draws because they're almost all in pot1 or pot2; most of the "more-forced" pairings come from pot3 teams trying to fit into the UEFA-AFC drawing puzzle.
Wow, the Statistical kit is a goldmine of info!!! Between other things, i discoovered that: - Ri Hyang-Ok, the referee I was talking about above, was actually a player who played two World Cups for Korea DPR. And she has the record of the earliest caution in the history of WWC (after just 1 minute, in 1999): quite ironic, if you think about it, for a player who would have later become a referee! - the two finalists from 2015 have running records to carry into WWC 2019: USA are without a defeat since 2011 (technically: I am well aware that the 2011 final does actually feel like a defeat anyway ), at 5 matches from the record set by Germany throughout 2003-2011; Japan scored in 10 consecutive matches, from 2011 to present (last match without goals for them was ENG-JAP 0-2 at group stage in 2011): they should score in every match and reach the final to catch up with Norway, who set their record in the 1991-1999 era.
Yeah, that's why she is so good beeing a former player herself. Considering this red card perhaps it was a little unfair? Ref was from Finland and next match Korea has to play with...Denmark
Yes I know and agree (not to mention that most of those matches were played in 12 -16 teams tourneys and 24 teams draw allow more of different pairings to happen.) It wasn't may intention to compare the two as rather to put this draw into context of general pairing tendency in WWC (one you have explain in detail above )