Possible Future End-State CPL League Structures

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Initial B, Jul 31, 2018.

  1. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    We've been hearing talk about how the CPL will eventually be a league that includes promotion and relegation. I thought I'd create this thread where we could discuss possible future models of the Canadian Soccer Pyramid. The USSF has standards (a copy of which can be found here: http://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?page_id=5449) that outline the requirements for a league to be Div I, 2, or 3 for men or women. Personally, I don't think a document like this is the way to go for Canadian Soccer because it's too restrictive, not flexible enough, and doesn't address the realities of the Canadian soccer landscape.

    Canada has a couple of obstacles to making viable soccer leagues:
    • Large geographical distances. Flying from St. John's, NL to either Vancouver, BC or Rome, Italy is the equivalent in time and distance. Coupling that with the large distances between spread out population centres, transportation and accommodations will be an issue for any Canadian Division I league. Division 2 leagues should probably be regionalized east and west, a la USL, to save on travel costs. Div 3 should probably be under the jurisdiction of the Provincial bodies, perhaps allowing some of them to pool their resources if there isn't enough population base to sustain their own league and the distances aren't too large (the prairies and maritimes come to mind).
    • Relatively short season window. Winter soccer is a non-starter. At most, a soccer season in Canada will have to fit within the 30 weeks between Mid-April and mid-November. A league can't have too many games in a season because you also have to include 3-6 weeks off for international breaks, 4 or 5 rounds of the Canadian Championships, and 6-12 games of Concacaf Champions League play for the top clubs. You also have to have enough home games in stadiums for clubs to turn a profit, if TV revenues are not forthcoming.
    • Not as much financial capital available to support clubs. Teams that are competing coast-to-coast with high salary caps will need pretty deep pockets to compete sustainably. What financial mechanisms will be in place to help clubs manage the step up or the step down?
    • Public apathy. The soccer season will overlap that of the CFL and MLB. Not to mention people drift away in the summer as other things grab their attention. Supporter Groups can only do so much. How do you keep the locals invested in the fate of their club?
    So how do you break down the various divisional levels? Div 1 clubs should have the funds to meet all the requirements of nation-wide play, but Div 2 teams might not. Div 2 clubs should have the ability to match their ambitions regarding level of play, but not break their budget. Likewise, a bad season for a Div 1 club should not lead to financial ruin if they get relegated. It's going to be hard to find a structure to balance the division requirements to meet these limiting parameters. I have some ideas, but I'd like to hear what the rest of you are contemplating. What is a final structure that you feel is fair, sustainable and exciting? And are there any other major factors that I missed?
     
  2. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    This is an issue but I think it's a little overstated. Not every matchup will involve going the entire width of the country. A number of matches will be doable by ground transportation (e.g. Hamilton-York 9, Calgary-Edmonton). A flight between St. John's (should they join the league) and Victoria while similar in distance to St. John's / Rome is different financially since the former is a domestic flight and the latter is an international one. Pooling of travel funds and negotiating a deal with an airline can help mitigate this issue. A-League which covers a similar distance across Australia and New Zealand has managed this same issue.

    I fully agree that lower tiers should be regional. Again, looking to Australia for a good model to follow.

    Norway, Sweden and Finland all have the same climate (even colder) and their leagues run from April to November (similar to MLS which is already played in Canada)

    This is definitely the biggest roadblock and will require ownership with deep pockets ready to take a loss for a number of years and risk losing their capital outright

    Again, a very valid concern. Canada's biggest Achilles heel has always been the "it's not the best so we can't support it" attitude. Can only hope that enough clubs will build a large enough fan base over the first decade. If they're smart, they'll focus on getting kids out to the games. People tend to hold on to the things they enjoyed in their youth so that's the best potential to build long time fans.
     
    Unak78 repped this.
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How many clubs and regular season games will a league have? Does cold weather mean Canada should have fewer games than MLS, which has 34 regular season and up to 6 playoff games? With 10 clubs, there could be triple round-robin with a fourth game against a rival to make 28 games. With 8 clubs, there could be quadruple round-robin to make 28 games. The best leagues in the world that are quadruple round-robin are Austria and Switzerland, which have 10 clubs playing 36 games and no playoffs. I think nationwide travel could be too expensive for second level clubs. Maybe there should be two regional leagues at the second level with each champion promoted and the top level relegating two clubs. The third level could have four to six regional leagues. Having playoffs and relegation could make every regular season game of the last week meaningful. With 8 clubs, of which 4 make the playoffs where seeding matters, 2 get relegated, and 2 get neither, it could be hard to have your position locked in early. With 10 clubs, 6 could make the playoffs with 2 byes using the format each conference of MLS uses now. Again, 2 get relegated and 2 get neither. I don't know a lot about Canada, so pardon me if my ideas don't make sense.
     
  4. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    For 8 teams I'd suggest a 32 match season with no playoffs. That would be quadruple round robin.
     
  5. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    You would think so, but it's cheaper to get a flight from Toronto to London, England, than a flight to Regina, Saskatchewan. I agree having transportation provided by the league and using airline sponsorship might mitigate this problem. However, I think the lower tier clubs would want to minimize travel to avoid spending a lot on accommodations and achieve cost certainty.

    The Scandanavian countries have the benefit of the Gulf Stream and the Baltic to moderate temperatures. Winnipeg does not. Even here in Ottawa it didn't start warming up until May. I still needed a winter jacket for the first Fury home game or two each season. There is a 7 month window where one can expect reasonable soccer weather. Beyond that and the league may end up using an orange ball for most games that week, especially out west. Newfoundland had snowfalls this June. Twice. The season should end by the November FIFA International break or the end of daylight savings time. That leaves about 24 weekends available if you exclude the international breaks and continental tournaments. I don't want to allow regular season mid-week matches in order to leave those for friendlies, Canadian Championship, and CCL matches.

    That is what Ottawa is doing, but I'm finding lately that the numbers are dwindling this year over previous years. I'm hoping if they join the CPL it will renew some interest in the team. They're in year 5 right now.
     
  6. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Geography: To me, the problem isn't really one of distance but rather the very small number of large cities to support D1. We, and others, have enough experience with long travel to make it work. If you're flying anyway the cost isn't that different to fly from, say, Montreal to Edmonton or Vancouver or Halifax. The issue is how few large cities fill all that space and therefore how few markets we have that are really D1 viable.

    Short Season: Not an issue. We already play pro soccer here in US-based leagues. Pick a time frame and a number of games and make it work.

    Capital: The CPL says it has owners with the pockets and will to go the distance. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt as they've certainly taken the time to line them up.

    Fans: The big question. Fans certainly exist but 1000 people in the supporter section isn't going to float a team. Will there be enough to draw at least 5000 per game five years in with a losing team? That's the make or break question.

    Structure: D1 is cities that can handle national level play. Depending how you count them, we probably have six to nine of these with two to four more borderline cases. If you're reasonably optimistic and don't mind sharing with MLS.

    D3 is regional leagues. BC, Ontario, and Quebec if you want teams that are ultimately financially viable as teams. Add Prairie and Maritimes if you're willing to assume owners or club structures where ticket sales aren't driving the teams.

    I don't really believe in D2. Either you're big enough for national play and you go to D1 or you aren't and you thrive locally in D3. There aren't enough travel savings even dividing Canada in half east/west nor are there enough cities too small for D1 but too big for D2 to make D2 worth while. Have a strong, viable D1 national league and strong, viable D3 regional leagues. Have a mechanism for moving between them if teams want but leave it at that for a generation or so.
     
  7. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    To be honest, I don't even know why they're even beginning to consider lower tiers right now. As much as I'd like to see a pro-rel system, that's decades away. The focus should be on getting the CPL built and on solid footing.

    Again I think we should follow the Australian model (I keep bringing up Australia because they're pretty much identical to us in every relevant way except for climate). They have A-league with no pro-rel and then each state has its own semi-pro league. For the next 20 years that, to me, makes the most sense for us.

    We still have the Voyageur's for an all-encompassing national tournament.
     
  8. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    This makes a lot of sense to me. Including the no pro/rel as it lends team stability (although I understand the CPL at least aspires to pro/rel).

    And your point about the Voyageur's Cup is well made. Especially because the reality for the next while is going to be more like three D1 MLS teams, eight or so D2 CPL teams, and ~30 D3 teams in regional leagues. (By these D rankings I'm of course alluding to the level of play, not the official D rankings.)
     
  9. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    There's a track record of overcoming such obstacle with the CFL and the Toronto Wolfpack which partnership with Air Transat covered their flights to Europe but also flew teams to Toronto. That team still made a profit. CFL operates differently but that hasn't hurt their business while having to travel with more people and equipment.

    Paul Beirne said many times that travelling was accounted for, I see no reason to doubt him. As pointed out above, it's CPL'S job to seek out such arrangements and I have no reason to doubt they can't figure it out.

    Division 2 could only work as Milton pointed out in a podcast. He has insight in the league and pointed out that a multi-tier CPL could/should have "pyramidal revenue sharing system". It's too early to speculate on how the CPL 2 would be shaped but everything points out to a tier 2 National league from coast to coast. A standalone D2 league is indeed unstainable as the CSA had already studied that option, but if CPL insist on that, there might be some ground to Milton "pyramidal revenue sharing" system to help D2 operations.

    D3 would simply be an execution of the CSA plan to turn the tier III into the Canadian Hockey League system with regional leagues having their own champions who would meet in a Memorial cup tournament. The winner of that cup could promote to CPL 2. That would simply be CPL acquiring L10, PLSQ and launching a Western league while incorporating Atlantic Canada to Quebec's league

    Teams are advertising 14 home games + at least 1 Canadian Championship game + potentially 1 friendly for 16 home games. The league already said it would be 28 games long.

    CCL tends to be outside the summer season.

    That actually been debunked. One of the reasons why people started to believe in the league was the type of ownership both the CSA and the league (Originally Bob Young and the Hamilton Tiger-cats) were looking for. "Deep pockets, willing and able to stay involved in the long term". This is the total opposite of the CSL. The league are very selective on owners.

    Cavalry might be the richest team in the league. The Southern family are among Canada's richest, they are worth more than some NHL owners. (Melnyk and Molson). Hamilton have deep pockets in Bob Young owning a tech company + the CFL Tiger-Cats. Winnipeg are owned by the Blue Bombers. York 9 are own by Canada's biggest home constructors. There's no reason to doubt the Faths m ability to spend after all the cash they dumped in NASL. A partnership with the Edmonton Oilers could still happen has their staff help FC Edmonton organize their relaunch. Katz wanted an MLS team at some point but that died once MLS was no longer interested in Canada. Source (unconfirmed) had reported that Katz group were interested in a working relationship with FC Edmonton.

    These owners "dont need help" but the league wants to be sustainable for the long term so limiting team's ability to spend via salary caps is one of such mechanisms.

    I think the CFL and CPL are targeting 2 different audiences. There's definately room for both.

    Yes Canadians follow the Jays but I doubt it's to the point that it would stop CPL from gaining in markets far away from the GTA. They aren't doing well right now and are heading towards a rebuild anyways.

    The league, obviously wants no parts of playing at the same time as the NHL, which I think was always their main concern. They start when NHL regular season is over while end around when the NHL season starts.

    I think there's a perception that CPL owners aren't sustainable and unfit to own and operate a tier 1 club. The CSA/CPL made sure that the old CSL scenario wouldn't repeat itself. Bad ownership left unchecked sunk the old CSL, not the lack of fans or attendance. These new owners are legit and their profile are exceeding people's expectations.

    Winning 2026, will just give them that extra boost to ride that wave for the next 8 years, hence the league circling 2026 as the year they launch D2, at the absolute peak of Canadians high on the World Cup. CPL will have exist and grow to 16 teams by then and they are betting that post 2026 will drive even more Canadians to support soccer, hence launching D2 at that very moment.

    That league and it's staff know exactly what they're doing
     
  10. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    On top of that, the league said they would make schedule that made sense.
    Example: Victoria @ Hamilton, then @York. They won't have team fly all over the place erratically. Smart scheduling goes a long way

    Owners fit that profile and sign on to be in the league for the long haul.

    Junior hockey isn't the best but the Quebec Remparts and London Knights have attendances that the Arizona Coyotes or Florida Panthers would kill for.

    CFL isn't the better than NFL yet, that league has undeniable support.

    I think CPL will prove the same thing for soccer. MLS isn't the best soccer league in the world, contrarily to the NBA, MLB and NFL being the best leagues in their respective sports in the world.
     
  11. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    It's harder to implement pro/rel if you dont plan for it from the get go.
     
    Unak78 repped this.
  12. Impactsupporter

    Impactsupporter New Member

    May 18, 2014
    Club:
    Montreal Impact

    Saw this idea recently:

    mlsranking.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-fictional-canadian-soccer-pyramid.html

    Flying coast to coast will be more difficult for small town and even medium sized town teams(Sherbrooke, Lethbridge), should they be promoted to the CPL division 1. Better to regionalize like junior hockey and University sports in Canada

    Just a thought.
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    8 clubs would be 28 games because you don't play yourself. Robert Borden said the CPL announced it will have 28 games.
     
  14. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Of course, I did that intentionally to see who was paying attention...
     
  15. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    Speaking of games, how many is too many or too few? The Scandinavian leagues play between 30-33 games per season from March to November. I think that's too many given our climate. Would 24 or 28 games be considered the minimum to play? Since we want to develop players, the more games they get under their belt a season, the better it is for their development. However, too many games and I worry there will be more injuries from overplaying or foul weather mishaps.

    Also, how many clubs should the entire league encompass at all levels? Too many and there will be a dilution of talent for the price-point clubs will be looking for. Too few and there won't be a critical mass of public awareness for the league or market saturation, which could mean dropped advertising revenue dollars.

    And what would be the mechanism for promotion and relegation once it gets to that point? Can teams refuse promotion? Maybe it shouldn't be automatic and require some sort of challenge match?
     
  16. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #16 Robert Borden, Aug 3, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018
    On top of the 28 games, they will get at the very least 2 Canadian Championship games and maybe 1 friendly not counting pre-season. We're looking at a bare minimum of 30 games

    The numbers that keep coming back are
    • 16 in CPL (Could be up to 20 if the 3 MLS teams joins down the road)
    • 16 in CPL II
    • Between approx 36 teams to up to 60.*
    *The CSA has a plan to transform D3 into the CHL of soccer. You're looking at potentially absorbing PLSQ and L1O into CPL pyramid and launching a Western league. Hypothetically, if we copy the current CHL, it's about 20 teams per leagues with their champions meeting in the Memorial Cup.

    I'd like the Memorial Cup winner to promote to CPL II while whoever gets relegated from CPL II would have to compete in D3 where they are regionally located.

    Just like Europe. I expect however Promotion and Relegation playoffs.

    Why would they? They would have access to more resources, more exposure and gain more value. I think, "hypothetically", that if the CSA gets fed up with USL D3 or main USL, they would force those teams in CPL III and would be forbidden to promote past CPL II.

    We're so used to the argument that investors would be upset at the prospect of investing lots of money and get relegated due to MLS. However, the current ownership seems to actually approve and support pro/rel.

    At first I thought it would be the right thing to do but if they are for it, who are we to restrict it? I welcome their competitiveness and we're less likely to see teams fall into complacency. The league said that the draft would be to help build initial rosters and academies but they are indicating that they would eventually move away from drafting. Mediocrity should never be rewarded
     
  17. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Let's say it is far in the future and CPL2 is a reality. Imagine you're a team in a middle size city - Windsor, for example - playing in D2. You're drawing 4000 fans a game pretty steadily over the years, doing a lot of more local travel to teams in the Windsor-Quebec corridor, and making a small profit each year.

    Now you win D2 and they want to promote you to D1. Unless there are increased media and sponsorship deals that guarantee to more than cover the cost difference in operating between D2 and D1, you are pretty worried about covering the extra costs. Even then, you know there's no way you can actually compete with the big cities so you might even see attendance go down for a losing team if you survive more than one season in D1.

    I could see teams being happier thriving in D2 (or D3) than struggling in D1 (or D2). We've seen something like this in the US system despite the absence of formal pro/rel with teams trying to move up the ladder or else self-relegating until they find their most suitable spot in the pyramid.
     
  18. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I think that winning the cup or winning the promotion playoffs would increase the status/attendance/viewership in Windsor and they would also have a stronger attendance average as they would be winning throughout the season.

    Promoting doesn't only have drawbacks. You should be getting a piece of the D1 pie (revenues, exposure, TV, attendance, increase in values, etc...) that would help with extra necessities expense. I think there will be a league-wide strategy to help with travelling.

    Where I would agree with you is that they would be unlikely to compete with the big clubs as they wouldn't those big internationals that top teams would have been doing for a while.

    However, that year in the top league would attract more people to Winsdor stadium, more recognition for the brand across Canada, a shot at the CCL. They could get the perks while fighting to avoid relegation, which is usually what newly promoted teams do. Just get good enough to avoid relegation zone and having to go through relegation playoffs.

    The advantages massively outweigh telling the top league that you're taking a pass.

    Long story short when I could have just started by saying that CPL would probably refuse a bid where an owner wouldn't be solid enough financially and not passionate enough to aspire to be the best. That bid would be denied.

    Those teams wouldn't exist as the league wouldn't approve such bids. I think the Euro pro/rel is WAY more satisfying and interesting than the other league system where the worse team gets 1st overall draft pick. Happy CPL moved away from that
     
  19. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How would it work for 16 clubs to play 28 games? Double round-robin would be 30 games. It would be strange to play 13 clubs twice and 2 clubs once (one only at home and one only away). Furthermore, imagine you have season tickets for Club X and the best player in the CPL plays at every club that year except Club X.
     
  20. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    They will adjust as the number of teams increases
     
  21. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    I think PB was saying that's the point they break it into pro-rel. Back to two leagues of eight: Div 1 and Div 2, no games between leagues, 4 games against each team in the league. From there, as they add teams, maybe they could break Div 2 into an East-West MLS conference structure and format to make for less travel. All the teams may have to play each other for TV contract purposes, but Div 2 clubs would play teams in the opposing conference just once. Pro-Rel would involve swapping the top east and west Div 2 clubs with the bottom two Div 1 clubs at the end of the season.

    Once they league gets to a critical mass of Div 2 clubs, they could add 2 more clubs to Div 1 and make it a 10-team League. They could still keep the season at 28 games by adopting a split-season format. I've been following the Toronto Wolfpack a bit and I find their format really interesting as it keeps teams and fanbased engaged. My vision has the CPL leagues playing 18 games in a Spring (regular) season. At the end of the season, the leagues are split into the following groups for a Fall (playoff) season of 10 games:
    • Top six Div 1 teams play home and away for the Cup and two places in CCL (the other two CCL spots would go to the Voyageurs Cup finalists).
    • Bottom four Div 1 teams and Top East and West Div 2 clubs play home and away to determine who gets promoted/relegated for the following season.
    • Each East and West Conference play only games within their own division to determine winners of their respective East/West Cups.
    The final Structure of the CPL would be capped at 10 Div 1 teams, 7 Div 2 West teams, and 7 Div 2 East teams for a total of 24 teams. I honestly can't see more that that number of communities being able to sustain clubs at the CPL level. However, there should be mechanisms in place to allow for the top Div 3 teams to challenge the lowest Div 2 teams for their spot in the CPL, but it shouldn't be automatic.

    Below the CPL would be the Regional Div 3 leagues. I would like to see 4 regions: BCRT3, Prairies (probably Grand Prairie to Brandon), L1O, and PLSQ + Maritimes. If a Champion Div 3 team believes it has the financial means, and can defeat the lowest Div 2 team in a home and away challenge match at the end of the season, then they more than deserve to be promoted.
     
  22. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Actually they would keep the first 16 teams in CPL and launch CPL 2 by accepting bids for that division which would see pro/rel implemented.
     
  23. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    But then they would need at least 8 more teams to start up a new Div 2 league. Wouldn't it make more sense to switch to pro/rel as soon as it's feasible and just fill up each league as new clubs join?
     
    Polygong repped this.
  24. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Just like they took years to assemble CPL in the most quiet way making it seems borderline like a Urban legend, (I'm just joking!), it's safe to assume that they would work in the back channels to signal that they are open to D2 bids years (2-3 years) before 2026.
     
  25. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What does that mean?
     

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