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I'm expecting a low scoring game and belgium to win (probably like 70-30 odds). But who knows how japan might change their playstyle in this matchup though. We'd imagine they certainly are going to be starting their full roster, unlike what happened against poland.
Per Elo ratings, that 70-30 is probably optimistic for Japan. Belgium sits at 2001, Japan at 1708, for an odds of 84% Belgium win, 16% Japan
As a Neutral I want this game to be close but it is going to take a very disciplined game for Japan to stop all of Belgium's fire power. I say something like 3-1 Belgium.
Everybody is so certain Belgium (and Brazil) will win today, but the question for us is not can they win, but can they win in 90 minutes? This is the sixth WC for which we have odds readily available, and to this point the record of dogs of 6.00 or above in this first knockout is 0-7-9. Here are the sides that have gotten draws in 90 in this round: Ireland v Spain Russia v Spain Chile v Brazil Switzerland v Argentina Paraguay v France Algeria v Germany Mexico v Argentina Four of the favorites on this list won in ET, and two won on PKs. Russia yesterday was only winner.
I think many people are certain that Belgium will find a way to advance. And it should be in regulation. I don't think as many people are as confident about Brazil. Mexico always plays them tough. That one could go to ET.
Also, 40 matches in this database (four 8th-final matches from 1998 are missing), and the over/under 2.5 tally is 13-27.
People's confidence is reflected in the odds. Denmark-Croatia draw yesterday was 3.22, Russia-Spain was 4.30. Paraguay, Algeria and Mexico on that list were priced between 9.50 and 11.00 to win, and the draws were in the range of 4.20 to 5.50.
I should add that Brazil's other four 8th-round matches ended in Brazil wins (Chile, Chile, Belgium, Ghana), three of them overs.
Yeah. It's a bit odd, since the Elo system was devised for chess which doesn't have draws. We could put in a draw with a three outcome logistic model, but none of us have gotten around to it.
Just hoping for a good game, with a winner before PKs. One can see Lukaku having his way against Japanese defenders. OTOH, too many overlook Japan's Brazilian influence and we've seen some nice examples of flair play from them too.
Japan are basically the last hope of the rest of the world against UEFA and CONMEBOL. However, while I would normally root for the underdogs in these circumstances, I really want to see that Belgium vs Brazil quarterfinal.
I will root for whoever is playing better or makes me feel deserves to win. Ordinarily, that should be Belgium, particularly since they have been on fire and look particularly good against lesser teams. But Japan's coach, I heard, has said that he rates Japan equal to Belgium so it doesn't seem the Japanese will be lacking in confidence. Hopefully, it will be a good match. I worry Belgium might run up the score on Japan, but know that in football, nothing is certain and no one can count Japan out until this match is over.
Belgium expects their team to win today and handsomely. They have all the ingredients to go far in the tournament. The question is how well do they handle the pressure? They are yet to play in a pressured environment. Panama were one of the weakest teams in the tournament, Tunisia were poor and had to come at them, the England game was a non-event reserve fixture. Japan will work their socks off. If they can keep Belgium scoreless into the 2nd half will the superstars keep their composure? In all likelihood they will win and I expect them to win by two clear goals. Possibly more if they can score early. However, you never know and Japan are a proud team who will fight them to the end. They have a glimmer. I expect to learn about Belgium as a team today, what will they teach me?