Review: Youth National Team Development- A Theory of Change

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by Andreu Josep, Feb 26, 2018.

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Should we Implement promotion/relegation for youth leagues ?

  1. Yes we should have promotion and relegation

    78.6%
  2. No to promotion and relegation for youth

    21.4%
  1. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    I'm producing Rethinking Football discusses player development with current professionals, players, world-renowned scouts, professional football academy directors, coaches and others. We will use Spain's model and compare it to other national governing bodies in other countries. At the end of each podcast, we will update our Theory of Change to improve player development worldwide, using indicators, best practices and our own research, along with the opinions and expertise of our guests. Access transcripts and additional information below:
    https://www.prospectsss.com/rfpodcast/

    I'm hoping to get feedback from people who are passionate about the sport and hear their points of view to integrate to our theory of change.
     
  2. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    “An organized competition with relegation and promotion for youth levels should be part of the base in the U.S. because it would raise the level of professionalism”
    — Manuel Romero, Former Chief of Scouting Real Madrid
    https://www.prospectsss.com/rfs1e1
     
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  3. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    “(In Spain) All our (youth) categories have promotion and relegation. And, each game has a prize by way of points. Apart from making the competition more legitimate, it makes the child grow with that competitive gene, which is apparent when they become professional”
    — Manuel Romero, Former Chief of Scouting Real Madrid
     
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  4. Timm

    Timm Member

    Fc Barcelona
    United States
    Oct 6, 2017
    There is no one-size-fits model all when it comes to youth development. Spain’s model may work for Spain’s players but that same model doesn’t necessarily work, for let’s say, Jamaica where the players have completely different characteristics
     
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  5. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    @Timm You are correct. There is no one-size-fits all. Ergo the Theory of Change we have developed and will update as we get more feedback from folks.
    One of the reasons I started this initiative was because it feel like all people do is rant (media outlets and social media alike). Having a logic model based on comparative government (NGB's) studies, best practices, and success indicators seems like a more productive solution to ranting and simply saying "that or this doesn't work. "

    We are using Spain's model only as a base because several countries have used their best practices and success indicators, resulting in significant advancement of their sport and player development programs.

    I hope you listen to the podcast and continue to share your opinion about the theory of chance as it evolves.
     
  6. headerdunce

    headerdunce Member

    Dec 19, 2005
    I agree with Romero on this point. In southern California (Cal-South), the best players were trained and developed under this model until 2007 or so, when the Development Academy started. Using that former system, Cal South produced a large number of U.S. National team players. In southern California, the Development Academy system has been an interesting 11 year experiment that, unfortunately, has not delivered results.
     
  7. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    @headerdunce Under a promotion and relegation systems where ALL teams had to participate would benefit the Development academies as well. For example, in Catalonia professional teams go on relegation with their youth levels forcing them to improve their methodologies and to improve their recruitment. At the same time, all clubs ensure they educate players more on intelligent football. Winning becomes a priority but playing well to ensure longevity in every age group becomes THE priority. This creates better players, better coaches and a better pool of talent. Check out the two podcast Romero is on: https://www.prospectsss.com/rfpodcast/

    Manuel Romero was head of scouting for Real Madrid in Catalonia, Spain. He has discovered and scouted hundreds of youth players who have reached professionalism in La Liga and other elite leagues. Some of the people he discovered include Kiko Casillas (Real Madrid), Dani Jarque (RCD Espanyol), Aleix Vidal (Barcelona FC), and Mariano Diaz (Olympic Lyon). Romero talks about what he looks for in players, and what it takes to become an elite player.
     
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  8. headerdunce

    headerdunce Member

    Dec 19, 2005
    I just listened to Romero in the first podcast. Love it! He has a different perspective than most administrators and coaches in the Development Academy have regarding development. Romero says Spain emphasizes developing both talent and competitiveness, including developing a "competitive gene" by making the outcome of each game important. In the U.S., most "experts" argue that the score and results of youth games don't matter. Very different views regarding player development, and maybe something U.S. coaches and administrators should note.
     
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  9. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    Please feel free to let others know about this thread and about the podcast series (on social media). We really want feedback from as many people as possible.

    Also, Parts 2 & 3 are available now :
    https://www.prospectsss.com/season-1-episode-2/

    Our next guests will include Hugo Perez, Larry Sunderland, Hayden Canizalez and many more.
     
  10. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    “Obviously, if you are training everyday with high quality players (in Spain), it’s normal for your level to improve. That’s clear. The ideal scenario is to be with the best players of your age group because that will undoubtedly make you evolve into a better player”
    — Manuel Romero, Former Chief of Scouting Real Madrid
    https://www.prospectsss.com/season-1-episode-2

    The Man Who Brought You Christian Pulisic, Rob Moore, Has a Plan to Supercharge American Soccer
    To all the top U.S. national team prospects out there, Rob Moore has one suggestion: get to Europe as soon as possible
    https://www.theringer.com/2018/2/28/17046268/soccer-christian-pulisic-rob-moore-agent-usmnt-america


    Should U20-U23 players and U15-U17 players (when possible) prospects go to Europe to develop? Why? Why not?
     
  11. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    Regarding Identifying Prospects for Elite Teams:

    "Normally we are going to see a player depending very much on his age, the category in which he competes, and the position he plays or the position that we are going to look for. But today the parameters are:

    • First of all is body growth: you have to look this physical factor fundamentally because we can’t not count on a boy for only one year. We have to close our eyes and imagine what that boy will be in X number of years and see if he has the conditions to fit in the future.
    • Then it's technical quality: reading how the game develops is fundamental. Understanding the way a game develops and make decisions because if you understand how the game develops you can always make the best decision. And, to always know how to act with the ball and without the ball.
    • I really like talking to the players I’m interested in before signing them to see how they express themselves, how they look at me. Try to guess, by talking to them, if they have personality or not, because intelligence and personality is very important."
    — Manuel Romero, Former Chief of Scouting Real Madrid
    https://www.prospectsss.com/season-1-episode-2
     
  12. Bob Morocco

    Bob Morocco Member+

    Aug 11, 2003
    Billings, MT
    How big is Catalonia, physically, and how many good youth teams are in it?
     
  13. Bob Morocco

    Bob Morocco Member+

    Aug 11, 2003
    Billings, MT
    Competitiveness was not something that had to be developed here, it was technical and tactical skill. When US youth teams played just to win it meant pressing or defending and kick and chase with lots of big athletes with the biggest most athletic one playing forward. There has to be a balance between the interests.
     
  14. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    It's not just Catalonia. It's really the all of Spain because each region produces professional players and national team members (Youth and senior)
    Spain:
    Population: 46.56 million (2016) Instituto Nacional de Estadística
    Area: 195,364 mi²

    Below is the breakdown of the 7 Juvenil Division de Honor (U19 Top Tier) groups. As you will see not one group is easy. Winners of the group play in the U19 Version of Copa del Rey after winning their 10 month league in their group. The lists reflect the classification as of today (3/3/2018). You will also note that the teams are both pro team academies (from all senior tiers 3rd Div through Liga), and Development Teams (Teams without a senior/adult team). Teams at the bottom in red are in relegation:

    PROSPECTS SPORTS JUVENIL DIV DE HONOER 1_4.jpg Prospects sporst Juvenil Div de Honor 5_7.jpg Prospects sporst Juvenil Div de Honor 5_7.jpg
     
  15. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    Now to answer your question about how many teams. Here is an estimate of the number of federated football teams:
    11,666 clubs consisting of 52,421 teams (as of June 30, 2014). Please note that each club can have several teams in different categories including the senior and National tiers. Now All the teams that have senior teams compete for a spot on the National tier System 3rd Div to 1st Div PSS International Project Presentation Spain Tier System .jpg

    Below 3rd Division you will have an additional layer of amateur categories that are also competing to move up. They play in (from highest to lowest):
    -Preferente, 1a Regional, 2a Regional

    Now if we are speaking about the level of the teams in each region, I think Manuel Romero gives a nice concise when he says:
    "Well, the truth is that the Spanish championship (LaLiga) now has a lot of potential. The proof is that Spanish clubs are always fighting for the titles in European competitions, always, when in years past, it was the English who dominated, or in their time too, the Italians, or even the Germans with Bayern Munich.

    In recent years or in the last decade, it can be said that Spanish football has been the one that has reigned in Europe. When it was not Real Madrid, it was Barcelona, if not Sevilla, Atlético Madrid has also won the Europa League. The best players are always wanting to come to the Spanish league, even though they do not have as much money as the Premier League. Also as many more foreign players come more often to play in Spain, many players with first division experience or first division level have had to go to play in second division teams.

    The second championship in Spain (Liga Santander 123) is very powerful. In fact the matches are very even, very competitive. And now, as this occurs more or less we follow this ladder:

    • The first division team wants to have good foreigners,
    • Then the first division players who have no place but who have first division experience go down to play second division; and
    • That is going to make the second division players go to 2nd B (and 3rd); and
    • To all this you add the players who come from the academy system because every time they work better in the academies, and more and more academies produce more players for the first teams in their clubs.
    All that comes together and, in the end, creates a trickle down filter that makes the second division increasingly end up with more high level players and everything is more competitive. And, it is increasingly difficult to win. Which gives an index of the competitiveness that exists."
    Source: https://www.prospectsss.com/season-1-episode-2/

    Here are some indicators of the level:
    • Players from 3rd and 2ndB tend to end up in 1st Div teams in other European Countries, including EUFA champions and Europa League teams.
    • Several 2nd B and 2nd A (Liga 123) end up in bigger league like EPL
     
  16. Bob Morocco

    Bob Morocco Member+

    Aug 11, 2003
    Billings, MT
    So Spain has 7 geographically based youth leagues with 16 teams each in their Division de Honor. That's 112 clubs. If we were to scale that across the US we would need 49 geographic divisions with 16 teams each for 784 U19 teams in the DA. Then we would need that number of clubs for each division below the DA.
     
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  17. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    Before Reading My Response, please note that I am not keeping in mind factors that state associations may consider, but for the purpose of this discussion, I think my perimeters will suffice.

    It would depend. Spain has 19 autonomous regions and 7 U19 groups at the top tier. The way the groups were broken down are based on a number of factors. For example:
    • Distance- I think the longest distance a team needs to travel to compete is 4 hours. But most games are not too far. For Example: If Real Madrid needs to play against UP Plasencia, they have to travel 3 hours, but they will not have to travel far to play against Getafe, Rayo Vallecano, Leganes, Atletico Madrid.
    • Quality- You want to make sure the level is up to part nationwide. Therefore you have to make sure teams from areas with population density play against teams with less people. This also gives way for player identification for larger teams and national teams.
    • Population- Teams in some regions have to travel more to compete and qualify for a Division de Honor promotion. You want a pool of players/teams that is big enough to guarantee quality and high level.

    49 geographic divisions should not be needed nor encouraged because it would lower the level of play.
    You want to go easy on the traveling but maintain a high level of play. Let's take the three conditionals/factors above. If we used these as the three main conditionals for deciding how to create a national league, we may want to do something like this:
    • 1st TIER-19 groups with 16 teams in each group.
    • For each group, 4 teams go to relegation
    • 2nd TIER- 76 groups with 20 teams in each group.
    • Of the 76 teams, the winners of their group at the end of the season go to promotion. So clusters of 4 groups feed one of the groups on the 1st tier. Example: Group 1,2,3,4 winners in Second Tier go to group 1st Tier, Group 1, while the last four places in group 1 are relegated to 2nd division. Then Group 5,6,7,8 winners in Second Tier go up to 1st Tier, Group 2, and so on
    Example of what it may look like in Real life in the U.S.
    Group 1 in the 1st Tier could covered the tri-State Area (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut )
    Group 2 in the 1st Tier could covered the DMV Area (DC, Maryland, Virginia)
    Group 17 in the 1st Tier could covered the Oregon, Idaho, and Washington State
    Group 19 in the 1st Tier could covered the So Cal, Southern Nevada, and Western Arizona

    The Second tier groups could be divided by State and population. Thus the post popullous states would have more than one 2nd tier group:
    • Each State plus DC has at least ONE group in Second Division National- 51 groups
    • The following 18 States get an extra group in Second Division National based on population: Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, Wisconsin-18 groups
    • The following 7 States get an extra group in Second Division National based on population: Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia-7 Groups
    This would be only for U19s (16,17,and 18 year-old players)
    The younger groups and divisions U16, U13, U11, etc should compete in a 49 region frame.


    I will stop here and ask for feedback from others
     
  18. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Andreu, unfortunately I think you're wildly overestimating the depth in talent here in the US.

    I'll take the U18/19 division in the DA right now as the example. There are currently only 7 divisions, which means that this would be among the top 3rd or so of teams that you would have in your 19 groups, and yet the gap in talent is jus way too much already. Take the Atlantic division, for example, which is New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, DC, and Virginia. Screen Shot 2018-03-04 at 1.28.02 PM.png

    NYRB, and Philly to a lesser extent, have no competition. Expanding this two include three times the teams would have NYRB beating every other team 10-0 every game, and that's no good for the players.
     
  19. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    @TarHeels17 You are correct in regards to the current structure. Also, the level would be low under the example structure I'm describing for 2-3 seasons.
    That being said, the level (in theory) would increase. For Example:

    If you started my sample framework and we left the East Division in 1st Tier as is, then the Second Division National would go something like this:
    • NYS would be one region with 3 groups 2nd Div National
    • Pennsylvania would also have 3 groups
    • DC would have 1
    • Maryland would have 2
    • Virginia 1
    • Connecticut 1
    • Each group would have 20 teams
    In the East Group 1st Div, teams in 7th to 10th place will go down a division the following season.
    This would force teams to invest in talent development not only in the U19 age group but also the the younger groups (U16, U13, U11).

    One of the problems with the current structure is that the teams in DA are not accountable to maintain their place in the group.

    This is a short answer but I hope it illustrates what I'm trying to say. I will add more feedback as we go.
     
  20. Baysider

    Baysider Member+

    Jul 16, 2004
    Santa Monica
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    What do you mean "invest in talent development"? Hire more coaches? Fire the current coaches and hire new, better coaches from somewhere?

    And where does the money come from? Aside from a few elite teams, or a few elite players at the better academies (who have scholarships), the academies run on the fees they charge, mostly paid for by parents who have no expectation that their kids are going to be pro players.
     
  21. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    These are great questions but require a very long answer. But just to be concise...
    A few things people need to keep in mind that most clubs in Spain are also pay to play. The only difference is that they don't charge outrageous fees like in the US.

    Your questions reflect symptoms of a bigger challenge, our football culture in the U.S. Right now:
    • Youth soccer evolves around a business model wherein the player/parent is the customer.
    • There is not an assumption of competence.
    • There is little to no interest in converting the player/customer into an asset for the team.
    • If the player is not viewed as a potential asset to the team, either the club looks for a warm body to fill the role of a coach, or the coach simply worries about doing just enough to stay employed.

    What do you mean "invest in talent development"? Hire more coaches? Fire the current coaches and hire new, better coaches from somewhere?

    I don't have time at this time to illustrate this on a graph but let me try to address these questions in written form with this example:
    Let's pretend I'm a club owner with teams in:
    • 1 U19 in Second Division National
    • 1 U16 in 2nd Division Regional
    • 1 U14 in 1st Division Regional
    If want to keep these categories, I need a strategic plan to
    1. Ensure I organize the best possible team in U14 to keep the category
    2. Ensure I have the right players and coaching staff in U14 not just to keep the category but to be ready when they move up to play in 2nd Div when they are U16s and scout additional players so when they get to U16 2nd Div Regional, they have a chance to win the league and move up to U16 1st Division.
    3. That means that my U16 team needs to have good quality players ages 13 and 14 so I can have a strong U16 each year with experience players (as I graduate ,y 15 players to my U19 when they turn 16). This plan would need have similar initiatives in each age group.

    My strategic plan would need to include ensuring I keep my coaches for as long as I can and invest in their continuing education. My plan would also need to make sure all my coaches are accountable to each other because they will depend on each other's players to maintain all the categories.

    Also, with a relegation and promotion system, If I want to have a second team in a particular age group, I would need to start from the bottom (example 3rd Division). This would give me the opportunity to give a new coach a team where he/she can prove his/her skills and develop pools of talent. It would also help me separate the players who want to compete from the ones who don't.

    Going back to culture...
    People would still need to pay fees but the expectation on clubs to offer a better service would be needed or eventually they would be either out of business or forever a bottom feeder club.

    I would also need to make sure everyone in my organization had an assumption of competence with every player that we bring on board. And, that while 99% of them will not go pro, I would need to make that we follow an organized pedagogy to teach a better understanding of the game to all the players.

    These are just examples of initiatives I would need to take t not only keep my categories but to also promote behavior change. I would need to develop a club culture where parents expect the best from their children, not just winning, but winning playing well.

    Th system would serve a a filter to ID good coaches and players, and would help program parents to subscribe to a culture of continuous measurement and accountability resulting in behavioral and attitude change.
     
  22. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    BTY these are great questions...keep them coming!
     
  23. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    [QUOTE="Baysider, post: 36378273, member: 44839"

    And where does the money come from? .[/QUOTE]

    If we assume the job of the club is to graduate the player from a customer to an asset then the money may come from a variety of schemes. For Example:
    • Loyalty fees to the clubs that produce elite level players: the idea is to develop prospects for professionalism. The clubs who do a good job would have to get paid by the MLS or USL teams that recruit players from that club.
    • Fees to clubs that produce youth national players: The NGB has a healthy surplus every year (in the hundreds of millions). The federation would have to pay set fees to those clubs that produce national players. The federation would also need provide development seed money to the state or local associations that maintain the environments where these national players would be coming from.
    • Fees to clubs that maintain top tier status: State associations collect fees from lots and lots of teams. Associations could build in a small surcharge from each team to pay teams in the top tiers stipends to help them with cost of travel, training, etc.
    These schemes are just examples, but they too could help change behavior.
     
  24. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    @TarHeels17 I'm making the assumption that the players in the DA currently are not necessarily the best players.What I'm proposing is an environment where the best players actually make it into the elite teams.

    I bet NYRB screens hundreds of players to fill their 18 or 23 spots for their U19, and I bet that there are at least 100 more players in NY that could fill those spots but they may not necessarily fit the coach or the team's vision for NYRB particularly for any reason. But if we had a system where those 100 players could still compete in a team where they could flourish and at at least 50% of them could be at the level to compete against (and even beat) the NYRB U19, it would elevate the level of play for everyone. And, it would also make NYRB itself a better team.
    This happens all the time in Spain. A players may not make the cut one year in an elite team but then goes to another team and competes against the elite team and eventually gets signed by a pro team.
     
  25. Andreu Josep

    Andreu Josep Member

    May 23, 2016
    Club:
    Hercules Alicante
    #25 Andreu Josep, Mar 4, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2018
    Keep in mind that the USIOC, US Soccer are making lots of money and not investing enough in players.

    Of the USIOC $5B in revenue, only 6% goes directly to athletes.

    US Soccer has a surplus of $100M. If this is a yearly surplus, US Soccer could invest in player development by paying:
    • $19M to underwrite team cost and league cost to the 19 U19 1st Division National regions (under this discussion). That's $50K per each 1st Division National team.
    • $6M to underwrite cost at the state association level resulting in $117.5K per region for the 51 associations (50 states +DC) to support player development. That is at least 100 players with talent per year per state that we could support.
    US Soccer would still have a 75% surplus.
     

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