So Nashville starts before Miami and whatever city between Sacrament/Cincinnati/Detroit will likely start before Miami, too? Possibly all three start play before Miami. Should we just pencil in Miami as team #28?
You can certainly pencil in Miami as a city that will host a MLS team.. The number that it will be entering, not so much.
You're assuming that Tom Gores and Dan Gilbert are stupid businessmen. They didn't earn their billions by being led along a leash by unprofitable business entities. They will pay the current franchise fee or pull their bid, most likely.
Pretty sure everyone involved are billionaires; That's not just a Detroit thing. It's a competition between billionaires atm
True. But Gores/Gilbert and now Ford are on a little different level than the rest. And I don't think it's close. I haven't looked at the different investors' worth, thats just me spit balling. That said, even with the switch to Ford Field, MLS thought they were a strong enough team to keep them in the running. Not saying they'll get a spot, but if one of the other bids pulled a pivot like Detroit did, they would have been out right away.
The Detroit ownership is already high profile, worth more than 11 billion, and own NBA and NFL franchises, so they don't necessarily need an MLS team as either an investment opportunity or to boost their egos. The Cincinnati ownership, with all due respect to them, are minnows comparatively. While the old man Lindner was worth 2 billion, once he died the money was divvied up amongst the family members. From what I can gather, the FC Cincinnati majority owner is Carl Lindner III, worth about 280 million. With the minority investors, probably they get up to some billion, but that is fractured amongst several people. And, none of them are household names or owner of major league sports franchises, so they are far more likely to jump through the hoops MLS puts in front of them over the Detroit bidders. We saw what other high profile (Whitman, York) potential ownership did in Sacramento once things became difficult...they balked and walked.
There's a point of diminishing returns with respect to wealth of MLS bidders, though. $2B is better than $1B if everything else is equal, but it isn't twice as good. And if the MLS expansion committee, league execs, or other owners think an investor is looking to coast rather than spend, their chances go down pretty fast, regardless of their net worth. The rich and motivated owners already in the league want someone to help them pull faster, and the poor or unwilling want more people feeding their own team's value. Nobody wants another mouth to feed, especially not someone like Kraft or Kroenke, who are quite pleased with how their loyalty and early involvement has been rewarded even with little extra investment. This is the problem in Sacramento. The majority owner of SRFC wants to remain the controlling partner, but he really shouldn't be. He doesn't have the cash, and wealthy part-owners want a greater say than he's comfortable with, so they walked. So if one or two of the Detroit owners don't want to spend much, that's worse than having a single owner who is, even with a lower total net worth. (I have no inside information, I'm speaking hypothetically there.) If others in the Lindner family are investing as well, but Carl III is the face of it, then they could easily suffice financially, and his motivation to succeed is pretty clear. (But I have no inside information here either.)
The Farmers are the other major owner with a say in how things are done @ Fc cincy (they are the owners/founders of Cintas). Carl's brothers are owners as well although Carl is the head. There are a lot of other owners but the head is what matters. Did get a bid update last night on Cincy Soccer Talk; Berding said they are currently doing the traffic studies for the site(s). Said it's the last piece for the stadium deal (whether that's true or not who knows)
If 2 billionaires balk about spending an extra $50M in expansion fee, then MLS should tell them to get lost. It's not billionaires that MLS need, it's billionaires who SPEND. MLS isn't looking for owners who hoard a franchise and depress the market by being cheap bastards after getting the team. There are plenty of those in MLS already. What MLS wants are big-vision owners that are willing to spend to push their team and, by association, the entire league, forward.
So, these guys should be happy that the MLS decided that they should pay 1/3 more for a team just because MLS decided that they should wait a year to pay them? No doubt businesses (e.g. soccer teams) should pay their high-performing employees (e.g. players, coaches, trainers) well. But expecting them to throw money around for the sake of throwing money around is foolish.
Word leaking out to me this weekend indicates that the #MLS expansion decision for the next team has been delayed -Cincinnati, Sacramento & Detroit will have until March to continue to improve bids or shuffle investors. No timeline on a final decision from what I understand.— Kartik Krishnaiyer 🇺🇦🌻⚽️ (@kkfla737) January 15, 2018 MLS just kicked the can down the road again. I gotta think that only bodes well for Sacramento, whom the league are literally giving Nagle all the time in the world to sort himself out. If it was Detroit theyd have announced it by now, theyre as ready as theyre gonna be. Its between Sac and Cincy. Im also starting to increasingly believe Cincy and CBus is tied together with the Austin thing, as crappy as that is, and while I think both Ohio cities should have a team, I think MLS is gonna wait to have CBus attempt their move and slot Cincy right in so they can say "heeeyy see we kept a team in Ohio, go us". That said I wouldn't be too pessimistic Cincy fans, this guy has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before.
We assume that Detroit was as ready as it was going to get, but there were still a lot of moving pieces on that bid in December. The Ford family was thrown in at the last minute as a minority owner. But, the parameters of their ownership stake go to the core of whether that bid meets revenue control requirements that MLS wants. MLS didn’t have a lot of time to properly vet the new proposed ownership structure. Beyond all the parties are rich it isn’t at all clear what sort of capital this bid has backing it. The removal of the real estate component radically altered the ownership structure, but we never got a real glimpse of how it was altered. The bid was also proposing some changes to Ford Field. What wasn’t answered was who is paying for those renovations. But, MLS would need answers to those questions.
Assuming the issue in Cincinnati is the stadium location, I have a different scenario... The Oakley location is a former industrial site, and as near as I can tell, the structures are still there. I'm guessing asbestos. The site probably has only had limited environmental study - a Phase I, and maybe Phase II. Work can be done inside the buildings in Jan and Feb, but outdoor work needs to wait until the snow is gone. It may be May/June when sample results are back from the lab and reports written. Then comes site work. I doubt there are deal breakers there, but no one wants to be a PRP on a Superfund site. There is also the issue of who pays for the work. Its probably in the $million range to get to where you can build the stadium with future monitoring costs. The last I heard, USL expects Cincinnati to go to the MLS.
I have no idea who is going to get in. Just gonna enjoy my team this season as we make a strong push to win some trophies. We pretty much raided the entire NASL best XI during their work stoppage
That's more impressive each year as USL standards improve. I still we both get into MLS someday as love when cities support the sport at lower levels.
There are also the issues of not knowing for sure what will happen with the Crew and the AG in Ohio threatening to sue MLS using eminent domain statutes. I strongly suspect the league will want to know for sure where the Crew fit into the national MLS footprint long-term before they make the call on Cincy, and I don't think they'll be inclined to award an expansion club to a state that is threatening to sue the league. So, my guess is they'll buy some more time on the Cincy decision which is a shame because they'd be a great addition to MLS. We need as many clubs as we can get with that kind of passion and widespread support among the fan base.
Anyone know who this guy is? Says NASL comms in his bio Sources telling me #MLS (non-Miami ) expansion announcement will be made the first week of March. Cincinnati almost certain to be selected. Detroit likely to be one of the two remaining expansion cities w/ one slot remaining. Final two likely to be determined by the end of 18'.— Kartik Krishnaiyer 🇺🇦🌻⚽️ (@kkfla737) January 18, 2018
Detroit in spite of Ford Field likely getting in, leaving one spot open. Sacramento should still get in *if* Kevin Nagle finds a majority partner to MLS' liking. Should Sacramento fall through, the contest for the final spot is wide open.— Kartik Krishnaiyer 🇺🇦🌻⚽️ (@kkfla737) January 18, 2018
I have no idea if that is really credible reporting based on inside sources or just his educated guess. That said, my perspective on the 3 other bids... Cincy: Would be a slam dunk, even with the remaining public funding gap over parking, access roads, utilities, etc. except for the Ohio GA making threats about using eminent domain laws to prevent a relocation of the Crew. Nothing has been filed in court, but MLS will not want to award an expansion team to a state that is threatening to sue them, so they'll need the Crew situation resolved before they move forward on Cincy. Detroit: Been saying from day 1 that the Ford Field issue would NOT be the liability it's been made out to be. The success in NFL venues like Atlanta and Seattle suggest that having a SSS is not the priority it once was, especially if the owner of the NFL venue is part of the ownership group for the MLS club, thus making it more financially viable. And the way the seats are configured, it can easily accommodate a full FIFA pitch and provide various seating capacities for different sized crowds while retaining an intimate atmosphere for soccer. Not every football venue lends itself to that type of modification or soccer but Ford Field is well-suited for it. Plus, having an indoor venue in a cold weather climate like Detroit is an advantage in the late-fall or early spring. If MLS is convinced that their deep-pocketed owners are ready to go all-in with spending on facilities, payroll, development academy, etc. they could still end up in the league. Detroit is a large market that supports many sports well. I posted a thread on another forum asking if the move to Ford Field could actually be an advantage for Detroit and it was treated like nonsense. I continue to believe people are seriously misjudging that aspect of their bid. Sacramento: Been crucified for saying so on multiple occasions, but I feel like MLS is looking for a reason to not award this bid. Great USL club, but its a media market with very limited value to MLS and it's not a franchise/market/ownership group that is going to push the league forward to MLS 3.0. Yes, I know Sacramento is bigger than either Nashville or Cincy, but both of those would fill an important hole in the geographic map and thereby have more appeal to broadcasters and sponsors. Meanwhile, if MLS really wants to add another team in California, they might be better-served waiting to see what happens with the SoccerCity initiative in San Diego.