a farewell to Serie A (or: I'm not bothering with monthly threads anymore)

Discussion in 'Palermo' started by Salvatore Giuseppe, Jan 22, 2017.

  1. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    After a loss to Inter today, and a loss to, I don't remember who, earlier, Palermo are now 11 points adrift of the last safe spot. They have 10 points total through 21 games. The chance that they more than double that in the remaining 17 games is extremely unlikely.

    Mathematical relegation likely won't happen for a while, but you can basically guarantee it.

    My only hope now is that Trapani finds a way to save themselves in Serie B to set up a Sicilian Derby. But seeing as they only just won their second game of the season, and are effectively 9 points from safety (they are currently dead last), that is also unlikely.
     
  2. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Trapani has now won two in a row, 7 pts out of the last 9.

    Maybe they can pull off a miracle. They need to finish at least 19th (out of 22) to go to a one-off relegation playoff. Anything lower is guaranteed relegation, 17 would be guaranteed safety.

    They've narrowed the gap to 5-6 points to potential safety now. If they can pull off a run like last year (where they lost just 3 of their second half games), salvation would be no problem.

    Meanwhile, Palermo plays Napoli today. Don't expect a miracle, even with a new coach (Diego Lopez) in charge.
     
  3. harrylee773

    harrylee773 Member+

    Jul 28, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not only is a run similar to last year unlikely for us, but I don't that a one-and-done year in Serie B is very likely this time around, either. Seems like we're going to be down there a bit this go round, hopefully an investor that wants to buy low and build the team comes and saves them post-relegation.
     
  4. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Palermo with their first home win of the season today, against now 19th place Crotone.

    They are in 18th, but still 8 points back from safety with just 15 games to go.

    They play 17th place Empoli on the last day of the season.

    Palermo's run in is Genoa (16th place), Pescara (last place), and Empoli (17th place).

    Mark your calendars for a possible live or die finale.
     
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  5. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    2 straight losses mean Palermo are still 8 points off of Empoli (assuming Empoli don't get points against Lazio today.

    Meanwhile, Trapani scores in the 90th minute to get a point after being 2-0 down to Spezia. This after scoring in the 93rd minute to get a point after being down 2-0 to Ascoli last week. 3 straight draws has kept their unbeaten 2017 alive, but not moved them out of last place. They've narrowed the gap to potential safety to 4-5 points (compared to 5-6 three weeks ago). 6-7 points (both depend on GD on if they can finish tied on points or not) for guaranteed safety.
     
  6. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Trapani is out of the basement with a 1-0 win over Salernitana. They need to make up 5 points on the teams ahead of them for guaranteed safety. 3 might be enough to get them a relegation playoff fixture. Every day they are looking more and more likely to pull off the miracle salvation that Palermo probably won't.

    Speaking of, Palermo play 10th place Samdoria tomorrow. A win will put them within 5 points (and some goals) of safety. 17th place Empoli already lost today to Juventus. Tomorrow is Palermo's easiest game of the next 4, so a result would be nice.


    Looking even further down for a potential Sicilian rival next season, Catania (who had 7 points deducted this season for late payments) find themselves 11th in Group C of Lega Pro. Teams finishing 2-10 in each of the 3 groups (along with a cup winner, who will not be a Sicilian team) compete in a 28 team promotion playoff, competing for one spot. Yes, thats right, a 28 team, winner takes all tournament.

    Siracusa (a city with a troubled past of soccer teams, this one a relocated team started in 2013), is in 9th place, having just won promotion as Serie D champions last season.

    Messina, meanwhile finds themselves in 15th, the last safe spot above the relegation playoffs (I think, 3 teams out of the 12 competing will get relegated).

    And finally, Akragas finds themselves 18th/20, though likely safe from a last place finish, with a decent point gap between them and the bottom two. Relegation playoffs look likely though.
     
  7. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Sampdoria scores in the 90th minute to draw 1-1. A point is a point, but Palermo really needed three...
     
  8. harrylee773

    harrylee773 Member+

    Jul 28, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not only did they need 3, but to lose two in the 90th is demoralizing. What a rough draw.
     
  9. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    After tying the game up in the 90th minute, Trapani gave up a 94th minute goal to lose midweek, snapping their unbeaten streak.

    They got a 1-1 tie today against a relegation opponent.

    Meanwhile, everyone in the relegation fight has been playing each other and coming to 1-1 ties.

    Slightly suspicious, but it also means Trapani has now fallen back to needing 5 points and some goals to even get a relegation playoff. 5 points and a lot of goals (realistically, 6 points) will get them 17th and guaranteed safety, but they'd need to jump over 4 teams to get there.

    Palermo take on Torino tomorrow. I don't expect a lot out of that game.
     
  10. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Belotti scores a second half hattrick, and Torino come back to win 3-1.

    Lopez said in the pregame that, given the choice, he'd pick keeping Nestorovski over having Belotti back.
     
  11. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Trapani beat 5th place Benevento yesterday. A miracle salvation might be coming for them, even if it isn't for Palermo. They are in 20th, the last straight relegation spot. Only 1 point behind the two relegation playoff spots, and 2 points behind guaranteed safety.

    Would be great to have a Sicilian Derby even if Palermo are relegated. The Trapani stadium is on the far west coast of Trapani (and Sicily) but is only 63 miles from the Renzo Barbera. The provinces of Trapani and Palermo share a border.
     
  12. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    There are 9 matches left in serie A. Palermo need to make up 7 points and a lot of goals to pull ahead of Empoli and be saved. Genoa is a further 7 points ahead, and might as well be ignored.

    Here is the remaining games:

    Palermo:.................Empoli:
    Cagliari....................@ Rome
    @ milan....................Pescara
    Bologna...................@ Fiorentina
    @ Lazio....................Milan
    Fiorentina.................Sassuolo
    @ Chievo.................Bologna
    Genoa......................Cagliari
    @ Pescara...............Atalanta
    Empoli......................Palermo

    Lets just go ahead and assume that there is no route for Palermo that doesn't involve beating Empoli on the last day of the season. It just seems unlikely. If Palermo don't win, the tiebreak (if needed) would go to Empoli on the basis of head-to-head results
    .
    That mean Palermo need to make up a further 4 points, and a bunch of goals (they would split the head to head, unless they base that on goals to, i don't know though). Lets say 5 to be safe.


    We can assume Milan, and Lazio and Fiorentina are lost causes for Palermo, as are Roma, Fiorentina, Milan, and Atalanta for Empoli.

    Lets assume both beat last place Pescara.

    That leaves points to be gotten from:

    Cagliari (14th), Bologna (13th), Chievo (11th), and Genoa (16th) for Palermo

    Sassuolo (15th) Bologna (13th), Cagliari (14th) for Empoli

    Palermo have to find a way to make up 5 points in those games. That means winning their extra 'winnable game' against 11th place Chievo, and turning an Empoli draw into a Palermo win somewhere along the way.

    That seems highly unlikely at this point, but this half of the schedule is definitely the easier part for Palermo compared to the first half of the teams, so maybe they can turn their fortunes around.
     
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  13. harrylee773

    harrylee773 Member+

    Jul 28, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Another lead at halftime. Another loss :(
     
  14. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    ugh.


    Now we are behind Crotone too. Their end of the schedule is extremely difficult though. I don't think they are really in the race for 17th.

    At least Roma did their job against Empoli. But that now leaves
    Bologna (13th), Chievo (11th), and Genoa (16th) for Palermo
    Sassuolo (15th) Bologna (13th), Cagliari (14th) for Empoli

    to make up 5 points. That means no better than 1-1-1 in those games for Empoli, in a perfect world where Palermo wins every one of their three.

    Honestly, a win and two draws in those games already seems like too much for Palermo.

    I guess we can start hoping that Pescara beats Empoli, making life a bit easier, but I'm growing much more pessimistic
     
  15. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    In better news, Trapani won a relegation 6-pointer today, and jumped up to the play-off spots, on even points with the last safe spot on the table.
     
  16. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Empoli drew today against Pescara. A small window of hope for Palermo, even though I doubt they will capitalize.

    That means, assuming Palermo beats Pescara and Empoli, they only need to make up 3 points in their other winnable games:
    Bologna (13th), Chievo (11th), and Genoa (16th) for Palermo
    Sassuolo (15th) Bologna (13th), Cagliari (14th) for Empoli

    Of course, Palermo could also get miracle points against Milan tomorrow, or one of their other two games against top half of the table teams, but lets be honest....


    Meanwhile, Trapani won big against what was the 5th place team. They now sit in 17th, which would guarantee them safety, with 7 games left in the season.
     
  17. Insigne4BalonD'or

    SSC Napoli
    Italy
    Apr 6, 2017
    In Hiding with Sal's mom
    Trapani looks like they'll survive. Unfortunately Palermo doesn't but the new owner has said he will give bonuses to the players if they survive. They need a win in their next game, they're at home to Bologna.
     
  18. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    If ever there were a time for a new coach bounce, it'd be tomorrow. 3 points would be huge. It'll still take a miracle to stay up, but a win tomorrow would do a lot to make it look possible.

    Palermo could reasonably hope to stay up by winning three games: tomorrow, and then Pescara and Empoli the last two days of the season. I think if they win 4, they would stay up almost without question.
     
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  19. Insigne4BalonD'or

    SSC Napoli
    Italy
    Apr 6, 2017
    In Hiding with Sal's mom
    Idk 3 wins is risky .. 4 would for sure keep them up IMO tho
     
  20. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    so much for 3 games keeping them up.

    Palermo gets a draw despite being up a man for 2/3rds of the game. Empoli (who was leading most of the game anyways) gets a stoppage time pk to win 2-1.

    Now, even if Palermo win against Pescara and Empoli, they need to find 5 points more than Empoli in the remaining games

    Palermo:.................Empoli:
    @ Lazio....................Milan
    Fiorentina.................Sassuolo
    @ Chievo.................Bologna
    Genoa......................Cagliari
    @ Pescara...............Atalanta
    Empoli......................Palermo

    Basically, Palermo needs Empoli to not win another game this season to have any hope left. Because Palermo definitely aren't beating Lazio or Fiorentina at this rate. That means winning four in a row to end the season , and hoping Empoli get no more than 1 point in their last 6.
     
  21. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    In other words: bye bye Serie A.
     
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  22. harrylee773

    harrylee773 Member+

    Jul 28, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm already wondering how long they'll be down in Serie B at this point- staying up just doesn't appear to be a realistic outcome right now.
     
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  23. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Empoli somehow beat Milan, while Palermo lose to Lazio 6-2 (they were losing 5-0 after just 26 minutes).

    Its all but a mathematical certainty now. Palermo would need to make up 14 points on Empoli with just 15 points left to play for....

    However, Trapani beat a fellow relegation battler after a loss to league leaders SPAL last week, so they are still on track for guaranteed safety, 2 points ahead of the play-out spots, also with 5 games to go. They have a pretty difficult final five games though, so it might all go wrong with some misfortune.


    And finally, Siracusa still finds themselves in one of the 8 play-off spots for promotion from Group C. Add in 20 more teams that qualify in other ways, all playing for 1 promotion spot however, and a third Sicilian team in Serie B seems unlikely next year.

    When last I checked Akragas was set for a relegation play-out battle, but they have risen to 15th, and are a point clear of that now.

    Catania and Messina continue to be middle of the table teams.
     
  24. Insigne4BalonD'or

    SSC Napoli
    Italy
    Apr 6, 2017
    In Hiding with Sal's mom
    Trapani will survive IMO, Palermo will go down to B. Siracusa will not win the playoffs.
     
  25. Salvatore Giuseppe

    May 4, 2012
    Club:
    Chicago
    Yeah, can't say I know anything about any teams in Lega Pro, but the odds of anybody winning a 28 team playoff a so low that I wouldn't put money on it.

    Just glad to see Trapani staying up. They came so close to promotion to A last season. They are so much more deserving than Catania.
     

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