I think South and North Korea are on the same level after watching the AFC Olympic Qualifiers. From the CONCACAF Olympic Qualifiers and WWC Coasta Rica should be ranked higher than Mexico. I wouldn't rank a team highly just because they held the US to only 1 goal during a single game, I would evaluate them on how that result was accomplished. During their match, vs the US, they parked the bus in front of the goal and hoped they could could keep the goal differential down, so that they could advance past Coasta Rica with a draw.
Mexico has a better defense, and is more organized than Costa Rica. Costa Rica does have a better offense.
well I said four of the top five newly inactive teams, not four of the five. I was never implying I was accounting for them all.
a team that I was hyping a few months back, Austria, just recently won the Cypress Cup. Spain's a bit interesting; they're unbeaten since their last loss in the WC, but had recent tie with Romania & Scotland and didn't participate in any March madness tourneys/ And I do think Iceland should be a bit higher, they still got Dagny 'I Wuz Robbed' Dottir on it
re: Spain A lack of playing games does not hurt teams in an Elo system - there is no "rating decay" at all, and the only "ranking decay" is to be labeled as inactive, auto-dropping you to the bottom of the rankings until you play again. So while Spain did drop points due to the draw with Romania, the overall effect was dropping just two points, which is nothing (they earned points from walloping Montenegro and drawing Scotland in Scotland, though not many in either case). The reason they dropped a rank is solely due to China's jump up.
I ask here, in the more appropriate thread, what I already asked in the USWNT subforum. What about the USA-Japan match that was abandoned at 76' for thunderstorm? Will it count as a normal game for the sake of FIFA rankings?
Really? Are you sure? So Japan brings home just a very positive outcome from this USA tour, in terms of FIFA rankings? (A draw with three goals on #1-ranked team's soil + a loss that doesn't count at all?) Edit: incidentally, this also means that today's goal won't count for Morgan's official record?
You mean the post on the other thread, I suppose. By the way, now I totally expect a big round of SiberianThunderT calculations, after the finish of this round of friendlies. And I want him to tell me if Japan gained any points from this US trip.
From the US forum: FIFA has certified #USAvJPN on 6/5 as official & it will count in FIFA rankings. 99 shutouts for Solo, 67 goals for Morgan & 8 for Johnston.— U.S. Women's National Soccer Team (@USWNT) June 10, 2016 I guess a 0-2 loss to World Champions (and #1-ranked team) on their home turf shouldn't anyway hurt Japan's FIFA ratings very much...
As it was predictable, with a 3-3 draw and 0-2 loss on World Champions' turf, Japan actually gained some points. The position didn't change, but Sweden is within close range, and if we'd go beating them at home in the pre-Olympic friendly match in July... ...we could actually catch up with them!
seems like FIFA definitely picked on BS posters(two Italians & two Polish) as their countries took the biggest tumbles. Sorry blisett, gricio, lechus7.......intelectualism & perfect spellin don't seem to account for much these days in woso! While I feel satisfied that they moved Switzerland & the Dottir Klan, four spots up, Austria(#25) & Belgium(#28) should of moves up as well. The bigger disappointment though is North & South Korea, while the southerners tumbled two spots(#19), N Korea gets to keep it's top 10 spot despite it's poor performance at the Asian qualifiers(5th place). Denmark deserve to be stronger, instead tumbled down a couple of notches as well(#20) other notes; there's two Norwegians teams; one with Carole Graham Hansen, one without her! As long she's playing, they should be in the top 10, without her, they're correctly (#11) Same could be said of Italy; bring back the Silver Haired One! or next time, risk imminent dismissal out of the top 20
FIFA rankings in June, 2026: 1.) USA (Pugh and Sanchez are still keeping the Americans at #1) 2.) France (just too much firepower for the rest of Europe) 3.) Brazil (they finally add more funding to their women's program, and it keeps them near the top) 4.) Germany 5.) England 6.) Australia 7.) Spain (here come the Spaniards) 8.) Japan (stays in the Top 10, but so many teams are snipping at their heels) 9.) Netherlands 10.) Canada (slight drop for them. they struggle with finding a big time goal scorer after Sinclair's retirement) 11.) Sweden (all Scandinavian teams are out of the Top 10) 12.) Norway 13.) North Korea (they stay Top 5 at the youth level, but they just can't piece together a Semifinal run at senior level) 14.) Italy (another nation that finally adds a little funding for their women eventually) 15.) Mexico (oh sh*t, the Mexicans finally got serious about their women too?) 16.) China (they move up and down, up and down, up and down the rankings, from 11-20, year after year) 17.) New Zealand (they just don't play against tough enough competition consistently enough) 18.) Colombia (they just don't have the heart to move up much more from where they're at. flair over heart) 19.) Costa Rica (they produce some offense, but their defense continues to be a problem for them) 20.) Switzerland (the boom already occurred around 2019 for them, but when Bachmann retires, they sink) 21.) Austria 22.) Iceland 23.) Nigeria 24.) South Korea 25.) Denmark
Japan should be higher, that's if they can finally show that having the best u17 teams in the world can somehow accumulate to being the top senior squad as well. It doesn't always turn out that way; Nigeria has had the 2nd best showing at the last 3 u20 WC's,but their senior squad have never become world contender. Meanwhile, Prez Donald Trump, appoints Sarah Palin as head of the new, notorious Dept. of Illegal Immigration/ Not being able to tell the difference on who's legal or even born in the US, she's deport, O'Hara & O'Reilly to Ireland(thus making them major contenders). Krieger & Sauerbruun to Germany. Harris will follow, marry Krieger(change her name to Krieger) thus Germany will skyrocket to the top. The rest of the bleeding heart libs that make up the entire USWNT will either dodge over to Canada or Mexico! At least poster Siberian Thunder will like your 7th spot you gave to Spain(aka Barcelona's women's team). They might only take two shots a game, but boy, do thet make em count!
I don't think Donald will be around in 2026 because that would require him losing this presidential race and re-running in 2020 and 2024. He could win the 2016 election, lose or withdraw from the 2020 election, and come back for the 2024 process, but I don't think that option is very likely. @hotjam2 you forgot to mention Sanchez being deported to Mexico to help build the new wall. Also, anyone caught playing soccer will be labeled a foreigner (possible terrorist) and deported to a country with their nearest ancestral background... scratch that idea. All foreigners will be tossed over the wall into Mexico and "AMERICA WILL BE GREAT AGAIN"
I've been hyping up the future of Spain for the past few years now, and was the first to do so that I can recall. I remember stating back as far as 2008 (when Spain won the Euro) that the women's team would be really good within a decade or so, and being laughed at. The Spanish women's team was horrible back then. But in the upcoming 2019 World Cup, watch out. Even in the 2017 Euro tournament. Spain is going to break through and eventually get to a Quarterfinal of a World Cup, or a Semifinal at the Euro. http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/nations-in-the-womens-game-jockeying-for-position.1769572/
Brief note re using the ratings to determine the probable result of games at the Olympics. Through the quarterfinals, there have been 22 matches. The median rating difference between the two teams is 172 The average expected win probability (for the favored team) has been .769 The actual win percentage (won/loss/tie) has been .727 The average FIFA chart result (using goals scored and the FIFA table) has been .694 The expected win probability based on the median rating difference of 172 points is .727 (!) Important note - I used the official FIFA ratings EXCEPT I substituted a Massey-based rating for the two lowest ranked teams South Africa (1693 in place of the official 1442 ) and Zimbabwe (1508 in place of 1208) [I'm going to take the liberty of cross-posting this in the general Olympics discussion]
Ooooooook, ranking gurus! Time for calculations! How exactly these Olympic Games are going to impact FIFA World's rankings? Have we to expect any major changes (I guess so)? Let's break it into details, please!
If I read the available information correctly, the FIFA ranking system treats shootout games as ties. My guess is that we won't see much change in the rankings, except that we may see an advance by Canada. The US will drop a little, France will drop a little.