The Knockout Stage Discussion Part 2

Poland vs Portugal
I have no clue.

Wales vs Belgium
Sorry Wales its over.

Germany vs Italy
Anything can happen.
From close win for Italy to total brazilization.
There are some unpaid bills too.

France vs Iceland
On paper its france. Great odds for iceland. (10:1)

 

For me, Germany and Italy have been the best teams in this tournament, which makes their match at this stage a bit unfortunate as one will have to bow out of the competition, while Iceland have definitely been my favorites and the Cinderella team to root for in this competition. Indeed, while until this tournament, I wasn't among the C. Ronaldo detractors (much less haters), his comments about Iceland (which I found totally classless) have finally put me in the anti-Ronaldo camp.

Anyway, going with my heart, I like to see Germany beat Italy, even if this is turning out to be an Italian team I like and although the Germans do have a dismal record against the Italians in major competitions. And even if a bit unlikely (though not impossible), I certainly want Iceland to beat the hosts. I haven't found the French all that entertaining and even though against some other sides, I would prefer the hosts to remain in the competition, against Iceland I want them out. I like to see Poland beat Portugal, mostly because of my recent dislike of C. Ronaldo. And I am fine with Belgium beating Wales (as I expect they will), even if I am not going to lose sleep over either of those sides.

 

OP, I'm curious as to you think it's obvious that Poland are a MUCH better team than Portugal. I know it's likely that you are right since alot of guys I saw on other forums have Poland over Portugal too, but I don't really understand. Here's my take on this. I feel that Portugal have a slightly better chance. Not because of how popular the players are or how world-class their game is, I'm not a newbie to think that way, but because of what I saw from them throughout EUROs and of course, Poland's journey too.

In the group stage, sure, Portugal played to 3 draws, but I've watched all the matches and Portugal 'dominated' in at least 2 of them. They played well against Iceland, but drew to a defensive mistake that left a man wide-open. They dominated against Austria and Ronaldo himself had like 6 very solid chances at goal, but missed all of them (including a penalty). They also drew to Hungary because of 2 unluckily deflected goals. And they held their own against Croatia, my pick to win the tournament before they went down, played slightly better possession-wise against them and sneaked a goal in.

On the other hand, Poland managed to unlock the NIR defense, sure. Guarded very well against the constant German attacks, but when they met Ukraine who I thought they'd dominate, Ukraine actually went crazy in possession eventhough they were already eliminated at that point. Then, against Switzerland, they got pushed to the brink too, constantly getting attack possession after possession before winning on penalties.

I'm all for Poland winning because I dislike Portugal more, but I just don't understand why people think Poland are easily the better team. Can you tell me where my views went wrong?

 

My take:

Poland vs Portugal
Still waiting for OP's reply, but right now, I'd stick with Portugal. They dominated Iceland but drew to a mistake in defense. They dominated Austria but Ronaldo missed about 6 very solid chances. They drew Hungary because of 2 unluckily deflected goals. And they played equal to Croatia which I thought would win it all.
Poland, on the other hand, did okay their first 2 games and got dominated in possession by a Ukraine team that had already been eliminated. Then they drew AET against a Switzerland side who constantly attacked them wave after wave eventhough they were pretty average in group stage.

Wales vs Belgium
I think this match will play out like the way England vs Wales played out, with Belgium dominating possessions and attacking wave after wave and Wales sitting back in defense. When Wales get a go at set-pieces, they will try to score from there. But Belgium are a more clinical team than England. If they get to attack wave after wave, I'd have them score a goal sooner or later unlike England (who can dominate the whole fckin' game, but I can't see them scoring a goal). Will be tough to beat Courtois on a Bale set-piece too.

Germany vs Italy
I've seen enough to think that Italy is the best team in EUROs right now. These 2 are the top 2 teams in terms of how they play. Both are terrific on defense and a threat on offense. With that said, Italy depend on their clinical movements to guard against opposing teams, while Germany use more of size and talent on that end. Italy's counter-attacking is almost flawless, while Germany have struggled to score apart from the demolition of a Slovakian team that's shaky on defense.

France vs Iceland
Going to go against the norm right now. Iceland will go through. They have played really well as a team throughout the whole tournament. And that win against England just does it for me. I won't be influenced by France being on home soil. I don't think it plays that huge a factor, considering the number of French fans at the stadium aren't alot more than the opposing fans. France have played alright in this tournament. Not the favorites that they are supposed to be, just alright. Minus Payet and a few Pogba moments, they can't create alot of chances. Iceland, defensively, have been playing great, so I'm going with the underdogs here.

 

Nah most people pick Poland over Portugal due to Portugal not winning a single game. It doesn't even have to do with a deep understanding of the game, just results only. Which is to be expected when the analysis is like "they play to win", "their defense was good" but the "other team's offense means nothing".

I enjoy how the majority of fans such as yourself that probably watch the sport every week can't grasp anything about the game other than making some shallow observations. I bet you didn't even knew that Portugal had 4 new players in the XI since Hungary or that the priority for that game was to shut down Croatia's midfield and be extra cautious to the previous defensive blunders (albeit 2 of them were deflected hungarian goals).

If you think Poland's midfield has the same approach as Croatia then you're dead wrong. Whether we play in counter-attack (due to our corwardly coach) or play for possession, Portugal will have more goalscoring opportunities and a better game flow this time around. It'll be interesting to see if our attacking line disappoints once again with lack of proper finishing though.

Due to Santos not playing with the same formation until the Euro the team is struggling a lot in the offensive transition. The team hasn't been playing with the quality it definitely has to go eye to eye against teams like Croatia and Belgium. In fact, it might not even change at any point in the tournament. However, considering how Poland's formation (too narrow for a player like Lewandwoski upfront) and how unimpressive they are dynamically (and not as creative as Croatia), they're aren't that better either in the offensive transition. Individual quality may play a difference in the midfield hence why I think Portugal have a solid shot to go through.

 

Thanks OP. I think I get it now. I understand where I went wrong. I do know that a team like Atletico Madrid played counter-attacking football with incredibly solid defense very successfully. But the thing is that, I couldn't tell if Poland are deliberately using defensive tactics or they are just out-matched. During the Ukraine match, everytime they got a possession back, they couldn't keep it. Always giving it back to Ukraine so I'm inclined to think that they played badly. I think the same can be said about the Swiss game too, just that it's actually more obvious that they played defensively because I could tell that their movements and positions were very defensively focused.

Hey, so who do you think will win this match and why?

 

I think it has to do with your clear bias towards Portugal and the way you talk about our national team. We know the NT isn't perfect but bias is clear with every comment you make about our NT.

 

Poland doesn't have experience and Portugal hasn't needed to hit top gear yet. We do the bare minimum to get by and that is fine, many dangerous tournament teams have had success doing the same.

If you are saying Croatia was horrible against Portugal, its mostly down to Portugal's tactics. Modric was completely nullified by Adrien.

It will be a tough game but I think Portugal will prevail and CR7 will return to the score sheet.

 

The chances are pretty good that you will see an Italy v France match up in the semifinal. While I will be rooting for Iceland, as I mentioned, it seems unlikely to me that they will be able to beat the hosts. As for Italy v Germany, history clearly favors the Italians in any such match up against Germany. But, of course, there is no real, logical, reason for history to repeat itself and the Germans certainly have the chance to overcome their Italian curse.

 

Leaving aside my feelings about Ronaldo and his comments regarding Iceland (which, again, I found outrageously classless), the truth is that Portugal have a decent chance to make it as far as the final. The Portuguese are capable of beating Poland and they have a slight upper hand against the Poles in my book. That game will probably be decided in overtime and it could, unfortunately, very well be decided by a Cristiano Ronaldo goal. Against Belgium, it is anyone's game. On paper, Belgium look better but Portugal can take a look at the Belgium-Italy match for pointers on how to outclass and beat Belgium. Even if Portugal make the final, however, which would be thanks largely to the bracket they have ended up in, I don't see them beating any of the teams they are likely to meet in the final. Germany, Italy, and even France, would each have a a clear advantage against Portugal in my opinion.

 

JamestheDW1 just sees things in a very rudimentary way. Doesn't get the deeper details.

 

Semifinals :

Portugal-Belgium

Germany-France

 

The previous posters views are not for you declare true or false.

However his analysis of portugals group stage performances are exactly the same as mine, I'm starting to think that you did not watch the matches at all.

As a Portugal fan I think we will win this match but it will be very very tight. Poland have a style that the Portuguese players will find difficult to counter. I thought Switzerland were very unlucky in he R16 as IMO they created the better chances and controlled the rhythm of the game.

 

Pretty illogical bias right there. Poland doesn't have experience, sure. But so doesn't Portugal. What kind of tournament experience does the EURO 16' Portugal squad have? Losing in group stage in WC 14'? Lols. And they've got new young talents in their starting 11 playing in a major international tournament for the first time. Sure, there's Ronaldo, Pepe, Ricardo Carvalho, Nani etc. meshed with all these young studs, but still, I don't see 'experience' an important factor in this one.

Portugal hasn't hit top gear yet. Lols. Portugal hasn't hit top gear against Iceland. Hasn't hit top gear against Austria. Hasn't hit top gear against Hungary and hasn't hit top gear against Croatia? Okay. We are now in the Quarter-Finals. If Portugal hasn't hit top gear against weaker opponents, then.. Lols. There's nothing much else to say.

I'm not saying Poland are better. I think they are rather equal in strength, but the reasons you used to raise Portugal is just too absurd for me to ignore. Sorry not sorry.

I'm inclined to say that you overrate Portugal too much. They won't get past Belgium, if anything. I think even Wales will scrap through against them. Against Poland, their best bet is to draw it out and win in ET or penalties. I don't see Portugal in the Finals. It's Belgium vs Italy.

 

I think the analysis previously provided of Portugal didn't paint the correct picture. I'm not going to talk about experience because at the end of the day, if a kid is 18 and wants to win more than a 30 year old, he can do it.

I want to analysis the way Portugal have performed because I was and still am skeptical of Portugal. However, if we put it together, we never know how far we can go.

In the first two games we tried to control games and created a lot of chances/half chances. There were a few problems with certain individuals that we had in the group stage:

• Carvalho - too old and slow.
• Veirinha - terribly defensively and despite providing a lot of width and options out wide, his crossing was poor and generally didn't beat the first defender.
• Rui Patricio - looked very shaky from set pieces from wide positions in the air and that won't change.
• Midfielders - tactically I don't think we were completely prepared.. our play was to go wide and wide and wide and we never tried to combine through the middle. Basically, we kept spreading the play and when we split our opponents we didn't take advantage.
• Nani - got into good positions but couldn't finish and I don't personally rate his first touch in tight situations.
• Technical ability - another problem with this team is I don't think we have 11 players that can keep the ball and create something in tight situations.

Tactically:

• Defensively, especially against Hungary when we had Eliseu instead of Guereirro really hurt us because we had two wing backs who can't defend.
• In midfield, Moutinho had to be replaced by someone who was willing to combine through the middle with the more advanced players instead of being so predictable and going out wide to players who couldn't put a cross in.

Against Croatia:

• FS made some massive changes by starting 2 players in defence (Fonte and Cedric) that hadn't played so far at Euro 2016 but it was what made the difference in the end because we looked more solid at the back. Finally benching Moutinho was important.
• Tactically - doing an Italian job (sitting back and forcing mistakes) might not have been pretty but it worked. I only watched Croatia's first 45 minutes against Turkey but I was extremely impressed with what I saw. There's something called conditioning games/periodisation that coaches are taught to use in order to get that little bit extra from the players in terms of playing quickly and playing at their peak for longer. I've done it for a few years and I see the difference between how my teams finish games and others. Croatia had that extra bit over Turkey. It was amazing to see it work so effectively at a professional level as I would have expected both to be well prepared. Tactically it was very different from our games in the group stage and I didn't expect it.
• Subs: Bringing on Quaresma and Renato (early) provided that little bit of an extra spark that was missing in the first. Renato has been our best player in terms of combining through the middle of the pitch and you can always count on Quaresma to deliver a good cross (which seems to still be a common way of how we try to break teams down).

Rest of the tournament:
If we can combine how we kept the ball well in the first 3 games, how we defended against Croatia and if we have certain guys on the pitch, we could go all the way to the final. I still think we don't have the depth to win it. Most of our players still have a few individual weaknesses to compete with Germany and France. I think we'd need some luck in getting to the final and even winning.

 

Debating with JamestheDW1 about footy is like a scientist discussing dark matter with Forrest Gump. His views are basic. He believes he is the determining factor between right and wrong. If you disagree you are just a bias fan, without realizing his own bias. You see the final results and believe it is the be all end all of a team. You don't understand potential or tactics, or that teams can grow or worsen, or look very different depending the opposition. Yes, yes I'm just a Portuguese fan boy, and I'm sure you are a completely objective neutral. Most people do not pick Poland because of their understanding of this game, but rather their desire to see Portugal lose. Those of us that have watched this sport long enough know there is a deeper picture involved in each game. Portugal has played 1 good game(Austria) 1 decent (Iceland) 1 poor (Hungary) and 1 gritty tactical game about Average (Croatia). Right now the odds are Poland 11/4 and Portugal 13/10 with a draw 2/1. Do you know why JamestheDW1? Because their job is to make money and everything is viewed without emotion based on actual data and what a team can bring, swayed slightly by the number of bets placed, slightly. If Poland wins you will hail yourself a genius, when in reality you would have just been on the right side of either a poor performance by Portugal or a masterful performance by Poland. If Portugal wins, I won't come and say I told you so, understand all I did was play the odds.