With all the cogs apparently in motion for OCSC to start an NWSL side for 2016, this probably deserves its own thread. Assuming the procedure for the expansion draft is the same as it was for Houston, what do you see happening? If you're one of the existing nine teams, who do you protect? And if you're Orlando, who do you take? As a reminder, here were the rules for the 2014 expansion draft:
I feel like some of these rules will change, not sure how though just yet but if they stay the same this is who I would protect for Chicago. Gilliland Erceg (would rather leave unprotected) Johnston DiBernardo Hemmings Johnson Huerta Press Colaprico
I would swap Erceg for Dalton. Dalton's game on Sunday was kind of unexplainable by her past performances, I regretfully would not say that about Erceg's.
If Erceg is still under contract, she has to be protected by the "non-allocated international" rule. I think that's why liesse said Erceg should be unprotected but was included on the list anyway.
Thanks, got it. I have never had the discipline to integrate all these roster rules the way some of you have....
I expect the expansion draft rules will change. Just like the college draft rules will probably change so Boston doesn't get the #1 overall pick like Washington did (doesn't really matter as Boston will just screw it up anyway). I also think it's hard to say at this point what non-allocated internationals will stay with their NWSL teams. To my knowledge, there is only 1 international currently under contract for 2016, and that's Nadia Nadim (even they didn't announce that they resigned her or picked up the option, the fact they loaned her signifies she is under contract for next season).
Yeah.... the fact that contracts are often one-year-with-option means things shift around a LOT between seasons, and exactly when they shift is important... For reference, these were the "non-allocated internationals" that got protection last year: Sanderson (BOS), Fishlock (SEA), Little (SEA), DeVanna (SKY), Foord (SKY), Taylor (WAS), Kerr (WNY), Martin (WNY). The fact that Seattle already had Little, but WNY did not have their other Spaniards, really does show how timing plays in to things. The rest were probably options have gotten (quietly) extended, so who knows how many internationals that currently applies to. I guess I might expect the expansion draft rules to change, but not anything major, just tweaks - the last expansion draft went smoothly enough that I don't see what significant features might need to be taken out or added.
Rather than look at who would be protected, I wanted to take a look at who wouldn't be protected. Unlike, 2014 I think this time team's will only be able to protect 2 US allocations max, otherwise there's only 1 player that would be available. I also left out any non-allocated international player that wasn't at least 50% likely to come back (in some made up rational that only I understand). So let's start off, with Seattle. If the Reign do bring back all their internationals, they are going to have to leave quite a few good players unprotected: Fletcher/Barnes (pick your poison Reign fans), Brooks, Bullock, Cox, Cruz, Dallstream, Foxhoven, Kopmeyer, Mathias, Reed, and Solaun would all likely be available. Next it's Chicago. They'll probably have to leave Hoy/Mautz, Bywaters, Tancredi, Quon, Walls, Lomnicki, Johnson, Leon, and Luba unprotected. On to FCKC. I debated about them keeping a GK, but I figured if they have one taken, they can protect the other one and we don't really know the status of Barnhart (whether she'll be allocated and/or retire), so I expect they'll leave her unprotected. So their list is: Rowland, Moros, Bogus, Lisenby, Clark, Silva, Averbuch, Kastor, Barnhart, and O'Reilly. Washington would provide: Harris, Dydasco, Salem, Da Costa, Lohman, Weimer, Wys, and Perez and Romero (if the Mexicans are allocated). There is some debate whether they'd keep Harris or Krieger. I think they'd likely choose Krieger, but they could protect Harris and have Kriger threaten retirement if she's selected. The first of the non-playoff teams that can keep ten is Houston. I have a hard time picking the 10 they'll keep, but they'll probably leave Klingenberg, Sesselmann, Jackson, LaPonte, Masar, McCarty, and Pressley unprotected. And possibly Henderson, Ochs, and Bock if they keep some internationals. Next on to Portland. I figure most of their internationals are out. So they can keep most of the team. Just Wilkinson, Kyle, Shim, Kleiner, and Zerboni unprotected. If they don't keep any internationals then pick one of that list to protect as well. For WNY, I expect they wouldn't protect Jones/D'Angeles (pick one), Frisbie, Nick, Spencer, Hamilton, Eddy, and Fields. (I wouldn't protect Taylor or Edmonds, but think they will. If they didn't they'd probably protect Spencer and/or Fields) For SBFC, they have so many people listed on their roster, I don't really know what's going on there... but if they resign their Aussies and Rampone comes back, they'll have to leave the following unprotected: Hayes, Gordon, Lytle, Stanton, Reton (who?), Decesare, Grubka, Filigno, Haagsma, Bledsoe, Goodson, and Diederich. Lastly Boston... why bother... Unless Simon or some of the Brazilians come back, there isn't really anyone halfway decent, who Orlando might be interested in, that they can't protect. If they did bring some back, then there is a chance Marlborough or Ezurike might be available, but that's about it. -------- Alright, so now that I went through who I think will be available, who will Orlando pick? Assuming Orlando doesn't do any trades or have players automatically allocated... and that they don't get the #1 pick (otherwise I wouldn't take two CBs): 1. Klingenberg 2. Barnes/Fletcher (whichever is available) 3. Brooks/Bullock (whichever, assuming one might be protected after the previous pick) 4. Sam Johnson 5. Dydasco 6. Silva 7. Rowland (if still unprotected after previous pick, if not D'Angelo/Jones) 8. Hayes 9. Lytle (if still unprotected, if not um... some other attacking mid like Da Costa) 10. Kyle (she moves every year anyway...) Only drafted 10, but it makes a fairly solid starting lineup: Just have to find a wide attacking player from the international market. If Orlando does get the #1 pick, then replace Johnson with #1 pick Roccaro and (depending on how risky you want to be) take Bywaters or Mautz from Chicago instead. Then they don't even need to find an international to fill that spot. And that is your daily dose of crazy from me. Hope you enjoyed it.
1. The shade at Boston 2. If there's going to be a minor rule tweak, I hope they do away with the forced protection of non allocated internationals or at least put a cap in it. I may be biased because that rule is causing Seattle to seriously bleed players. Also don't forget that unlike previous expansion years, the international cap was 1 higher this year due to the World Cup so in essence teams that took advantage of that will be punished. From your list above, I think the only people I don't want on there are obviously Barnes and Fletcher. If there are no rule changes, Harvey better start working on some back room trades right now where she can send 2 other players plus our 2 high draft picks to get Barnes/Fletcher back.
One of the back end tweaks is going to be player retirements... we've seen plenty following the first two seasons. Hopefully people announce or decide in a timely fashion so as to not screw up this protection business. I can also see some unprotected and probably poorly compensated players seeing the expansion draft as another reason to hang up the boots.
We had 4 internationals this year, but remember we expect(?) it to go back to 3 next year... I'm still not sure what the reasoning for the expansion was this year, unless the league was wanting to capitalize on the international flavor that was going to be entering the average fan's mind, with "look at all the WWC players we have!" or something like that.
Don't forget Seattle ended up only using 3 since Fishlock got a green card. And there's no way Little won't be protected. So that just leaves Corsie and Veje. Seattle could not resign Veje in order to be able to protect both Barnes and Fletcher. Or they could decide to leave one of their other starters unprotected. Maybe Winters as they can then protect Brooks or Bullock if she's taken.
Yeah Winters will not be left unprotected.And yes I know Fishlock is not an international anymore but than again, she's one of the ones you can't leave unprotected. So there are couple of options: 1. Go the very RISKY route and leave Solo unprotected so she can pull the "if you chose me I'll retire" card. But that could backfire spectacularly. 2. Do not resign Veje maybe until after the expansion draft. But than someone might pick up her rights as a discovery player and Seattle will need to give up something for her. How long does the green card process take typically? Can it be transferred via marriage? Also, I won't be shocked if someone like Cox have a no trade clause in her contract which going by the above rules might mean they have to protect her. Let's just say this is going to be a difficult stretch for me
That wouldn't be too bad. Orlando might not want to take on all the additional drama that Hope brings with her. And if she was taken, they do have Kopmeyer who played very well in Solo's absence. Well teams can't trade rights anymore, so she'd have to sign a contract with that team. So she could always refuse to sign with that other team. I don't know for sure, but I think it varies somewhat. Fishlock got it after 2 1/2 years. So that would seem to mean that Little could possibly get it next year. But there is no benefit for spouses, except to allow the spouse to come to the US. They would only get an advantage if the green card member becomes a citizen.
Now that I think about it, the Solo route might actually be the best way. I'm 85% sure that if the number of allocated players you can protected stay at 2, Harris will be left unprotected. She's the local girl and wants to play in Orlando and it seems Orlando wants her as well. So similar to what the Spirit did a year ago by leaving Harris unprotected because the Dash already had McLoed, we can do the same.
I'm not so sure Harris wanting to go to Orlando is a foregone conclusion. Sure she's from nearby and is happy to see them get a team, but I think she'll want to stay with Krieger. And although some speculate that she'll retire, I have a hard time seeing Krieger retire before the Olympics especially since she missed 2012. And I have a harder time seeing Washington giving up both Harris and Krieger. I guess Krieger could pull a Wambach and not play in the NWSL next year, but I don't know if she has the clout required to pull that off.
Ashlyn Harris went to the Orlando City Soccer awards gala this week with Alex Morgan. Read into that what you will. pic.twitter.com/PVx7WV2nR8
All it tells me is that the MLS team she roots for is Orlando City. Which I believe was already known prior to this. Doesn't mean that her moving to Orlando's NWSL team is a foregone conclusion, though. Leroux spent a ton of time hanging around Sporting KC and we all know where that got her.
In particular Harris isn't getting paid big bucks like Morgan is. Distance from "home" is a bigger deal the lower your salary is. All speculation, but maybe a hint in a particular direction.
Who knows what kind of "backroom deal" took place between, Paulsen, the league, Orlando City, Alex Morgan and even Nike for it to happen.
Yeah, and so is distance from significant other. Allocated players will get paid the same regardless of whether their team is independent or MLS backed, so the only consideration, as I said, was will she rather play with Krieger or in Orlando? I don't think it's so forgone that Orlando would be preferred to Krieger. If Orlando could get both, then sure, I'm sure she'd love to be in Orlando.
Given that the NWSL season is only 5 months long and even than USWNT have a camp every month or so, I can see how she could prefer being in Orlando than close to Krieger. But that's just my two cents. And I sorta agree that I have never seen this kind of involvement by a USWNT member for a MLS team that they weren't yet playing for a sister NWSL team. Yeah Leroux hangs out in KC a lot but you get the feel that most of her support is for her husband than the actual team. Ashlyn's promotion of OCSC on social media is at another level all together. For the sake of everyone, I DO hope she goes there as it will just be awkward next year when they get a team and she is still playing for the Spirit.
I don't think it is THAT terrible that Harris tweeted a picture about going to an awards ceremony. I cannot possibly imagine that single picture causing all sorts of rukus with Washington if she stays there. She does live in Orlando and obviously has ties with soccer players, so being invited to the awards gala is a plausible scenario. If she had gone to the Houston Dash awards ceremoney, that would be a big deal. But the conversation was about player preference, so I think this does maybe show some preference to be in Orlando. I wouldn't think about it at all, except that all of these USWNT appearances at Orlando City games only started a month or so ago. While the ladies were busy playing games earlier in the year, if Ashlyn or Sydney had been hanging around in February or March and then again after the season I wouldn't think too much about it. Curious that it started now, that's all.
Well I do not think it's a big deal now but if she continue this same level of involvement once the Orlando NWSL team is announced, it WILL be a big deal if she is still playing for Washington. Remember this is the same SM crowd that lost their shit when Krieger missed the semi's to attend a wedding. It will look even worse when one of the faces of the organization is actively promoting a competitor, be her from Orlando or not. On the other hand, this could just be some good old fashion PR by the Orlando organization as they try to drum up interest in the upcoming USWNT match as hopefully NWSL franchise announcement.