Wondolowski makes statistical MLS history?

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Stan Collins, Jul 15, 2012.

  1. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    After reading the recent back and forth I think we should re-title this thread, "How to make Wondo's goal scoring feat sound boring".
    :p
     
  2. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    Well, 1) the data has to have statistical significance and 2) there should be some kind of credible underlying premise / hypothesis that is behind the research. We could look at Wondo's scoring rate on even numbered days vs. odd numbered days, but would we believe the underlying premise there, that even or odd is relevant to his goal scoring rate? The sample might be statistically significant but the underlying premise is not really credible.

    In the case of Wondo's scoring rate vs. top, mid, and lower table teams, I'm not sure that the difference in the quality of the defenses is necessarily statistically significant, especially comparing say top to mid tier. And then I'm not sure what the underlying premise would be. We see that Wondo's scoring rate dips for mid-tier teams, but I would be hard-pressed to even "back fill" a premise / hypothesis as to why that is the case.
     
  3. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Another interesting thing to look at in goals scored is the "importance" of goals.

    I.e. game winning goals, game tying, etc vs. late goals in a blow out.

    Wondo likely really exceeds in this category considering his breaking of the game winning goals record.
     
  4. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    1) Significance is relative. 2) Playoff teams vs non-playoff was too broad a line to cut in my mind, because the difference between playing, say, KC's defense or RSL's defense and LA or NY's defense, is 25%-43% more goals conceded. Which nicely falls into that 30% range for Lassiter that you guys want to handicap his numbers with. Cutting into into thirds brings that range down a bit, although admittedly it's not perfect - ideally you split the teams into 3rds based on GA.

    And I again don't see why a hypothesis has to exist before looking at the numbers, or one needs to be added back in afterward. It's possible to look at something just to look at it from a different angle and see if anything can be learned, without coming at the information with bias or expectation.
     
  5. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    Statistical significance - a determination as to whether your observations reflect a pattern rather than just chance. It is not "relative" - there's a quantitative field of study called statistics that deals with these kinds of things.

    Sure, you can "back-fill" a hypothesis. But there should at least be some reasonable chance that you might be able to do that. If we found that Wondo scored more goals on even-numbered days, I would be hard-pressed to imagine a hypothesis to explain that. It's almost certainly just a random occurrence / chance, and suggests that the sample size is probably too small. If I flip a coin 10 times, I might get heads 8 times, but if I flip it 100 times, it's probably going to even out.

    Same goes for goals scored against top, mid, and low level teams, though to a lesser extent. I think it's the "8 heads out of 10 coin flips" effect, and even if it wasn't, I'm not sure what hypothesis I would back-fill to explain the data.
     
  6. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    In your example of statistical significance, your way of determining whether something is chance or pattern is by comparing outliers to an expected pattern or result - I hate to go all dictionary on you, but...#5.

    Anyway, you think I'm wasting my time; and I don't. I don't think looking into something requires following someone else's approval and formula for acting on hunches, nor does it require a nice, clean explanation/rationalization for why it happened in order for it to be interesting; and you do. Let's leave it at that.
     
  7. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good luck with that!

    RapidStorm, meet JazzyJ:

    [​IMG]
     
  8. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Is that speck or prosciutto?
     
  9. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    A picture of Wondo with the Golden Boot?
     
  10. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

    May 29, 2003
    San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's wondo playing pretty much every defense in the league
     
    LouisianaViking07/09 repped this.
  11. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Record in tact, Wondo ends up his amazing season with 27 league goals 0 playoff goals.
     
    Jasonma, LouisianaViking07/09 and henryo repped this.
  12. LouisianaViking07/09

    Aug 15, 2009
    Could this be the last game for Wondo with the Earthquakes?
     
  13. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wondo breaks the MLS record for most passes to Ike Opara instead of taking the game saving shot with 1.
     
    profiled repped this.
  14. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    Maybe not showing up for big games is why he's not called up to the NATs.
     
  15. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    He is a good but not a national team player. I never thought he was anyway. There isn't anything wrong with that . I mean there are top scorers in many leagues around the world who are great club players or goal scorers but are not really meant to play on national teams as you only have so many chances to play with them.
     
  16. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The last time we were in the playoffs (2010)I do recall a dramatic goal at NYRB that ousted them from the playoffs.
     
  17. Earthshaker

    Earthshaker BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 12, 2005
    The hills above town
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I suppose a meteorite could hit him during the off season, but, the fact that he is still under contract with the Quakes leaves me to believe we will see him playing many more games for San Jose.
     
  18. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    I think he is trying to say he may go to Europe but I don't see it....
     
  19. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    The SJ should throw a few more bones his way though.
     
  20. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    they can't throw Ducketts at him ... because Bilal no longer plays in MLS:

    [​IMG]
     
    Jasonma repped this.
  21. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    Doesn't he have European ancestry? Maybe after getting hit by a meteor what's left of his body will be buried there.
     
  22. RedBullFootball

    Apr 7, 2008
    Just leave it to these stat nerds on BigSoccer. They do it every single time.
     
  23. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Wondo is Polish as was Danny Szetela who tried and failed in both Poland and MLS and is out of the game at 24 years of age..... European ancestry though means nothing at 30 years old especially in January.....
     
  24. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    How about February?
     
  25. falvo

    falvo Member+

    Mar 27, 2005
    San Jose & Florence
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Transfer window in Europe is in January so he couldn't go in February.....
     

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