2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

Discussion in 'Elections' started by argentine soccer fan, Feb 17, 2012.

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  1. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is where I don't get all the Nate Silver-bashing on the part of the mostly-useless pundit class. If you disagree with Silver, fine. If you think that he's partisan, fine. But he's hardly a tremendous outlier when you look at all the betting futures, all of which have Obama at around a 65-70% chance at reelection. Just look at Intrade or Betfair or at any of a number betting sites.

    The free market -- people putting their money where their mouths are -- is generally agreeing with Silver and is generally disagreeing with the mostly-useless pundit class.

    Edit: Of course, I'm pretty sure the mostly-useless pundit class knows this already. But hey, gotta fill airtime somehow!
     
  2. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
  3. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    Agreeing that Nate Silver may be right is an inherent rejection of the usefulness of the pundit class. If 7 hours a day discussing "who won the week" and "Romneymentum" is less credible than a guy in his apartment running some statistical models, why listen to the pundits at all? They're attacking Silver the same way that horse carriage drivers attacked cars; they're frightened.
     
  4. ElJefe

    ElJefe Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 16, 1999
    Colorful Colorado
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    People who compare Silver and Wang to Bill James are right on the money for the same reason.

    Honestly, I think that the only people who think that the pundit class serves any real usefulness anymore are the pundit themselves and the TV execs who employ them. And in the latter case, it's not because they believe the pundits offer any valuable analysis, but because their bloviating makes for TV that people will watch.

    You can see this in the betting markets and you can see this in how people are acting. Chris Christie is acting the way he is with the President and putting a knife in Romney's back because he knows the odds at this point. He sure as hell isn't listening to Dick Morris.
     
  5. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    Leicester City FC
    FWIW, it's anecdotal, but it seems there's a fair amount of anger in NY by how much attention NJ is getting when there are some totally devastated places here.
     
  6. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    Maybe Bloomberg shouldn't have publicly said Obama wasn't welcome in New York.
     
  7. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Bloomberg didn't want a visit from Obama. Say what you want about the symbolism of these visits, but they do actually have an effect. Although its not a competition, I think the Jersey shore took the absolute worst of it. NY has plenty of damage, and that one neighborhood burning down is pretty awful.
     
  8. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    Leicester City FC
    Yeah - that message hasn't really reached them.
     
  9. dark knight

    dark knight Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 15, 1999
    Club:
    Leicester City FC
    It seems a little short sighted in retrospect - the Rockaways and Long Beach seem pretty crushed - and I'm not sure anywhere has it as bad as that neighborhood - Breezy Point.
     
  10. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Bloomberg asked Obama not to come because of the disruption that the President's arrival would cause. For better or worse, the press follow the president.

    EDIT: I see it's already addressed above. Seems like Bloomberg should have asked Obama to avoid Manhattan and survey Queens and Staten Island instead.
     
  11. White/Blue_since1860

    Orange14 is gay
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Still to soon to start the "2016: Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie thread"?
     
  12. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    [​IMG]

    Just sayin'.
     
  13. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just sayn' what? That Bush shouldn't have gone to the site of a terrorist attack?

    I think that's a little different than a hurricane.
     
  14. chaski

    chaski Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 20, 2000
    redacted
    Club:
    Lisburn Distillery FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Turks and Caicos Islands
    Nope.
    Steve Young is QB
     
    fatbastard repped this.
  15. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Steve Young is publicly apolitical, but his wife came out against Prop 8.
     
  16. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Woooooosh.

    I'm just sayin' that Bloomberg could have worked out a presidential visit. That was one of the best moments of the Bush presidency, for him and for the country. I think people in NJ were lifted a bit by Obama's visit, and I'm sure it could have been arranged in NY. As TPH mentioned, he didn't have to go to lower Manhattan. He probably could have bounced over on Marine One from NJ without too much hassle.
     
    GiuseppeSignori repped this.
  17. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    OK that's good.
     
  18. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And I am saying the concentrated destruction of 9/11 was a little different than the widespread destruction of a hurricane.
     
  19. TheSlipperyOne

    TheSlipperyOne Member+

    Feb 29, 2000
    Denver
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    ElasticNorseman and That Phat Hat repped this.
  20. Iaquinta

    Iaquinta Member

    Jan 8, 2007
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
  21. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    A reminder of what all should know, that the right-wing media are not a collection of people with integrity and principles who have just happen to have a different viewpoint. They are instead whores who will say anything at any time, and hope that the audience is either too biased or too stupid to hold that against them -





     
  22. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    The name belongs up there with Stalinist Truth Squad.
     
  23. Hararea

    Hararea Member+

    Jan 21, 2005
    If he's wrong, it was widespread voter fraud.
     
  24. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    I was going to say, they don't have ACORN to kick around any more.
     
  25. Demosthenes

    Demosthenes Member+

    May 12, 2003
    Berkeley, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Truthfully, the two situations are rather different.
     

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