I find this thread to be enlightening as to how fans view other teams. I keep trying to figure out why people are so high on Chicago and Houston, while DC is seen as less than top 5 in the East. I'm guessing people just think DC's defense is going to be atrocious (despite adding two veterans in Dudar and Russell, having a healthy Jakovic, and boasting the USMNT's #2 GK). It can't be a lack of confidence in the offense, as they were the fourth-best in goals scored last year, just re-signed the reiging MVP to a contract extension, have a healthy Boskovic and Pontius, and have only gotten stronger in the offseason with their signings. I'm honestly suprised at just how ridiculously loaded DC is at every attacking position; it wouldn't surprise me if they have a quite a few blow-out combs by the end of the season. So if isn't the offense and I really doubt it's the defense, are people just going with the " DC can't make the playoffs" meme that's been going on for the last few years (despite the fact that they missed the playoffs in three of the past four years by less than a handful of points)? Or are other fans just underwhelmed by the fairly radical overhaul DC has undergone this past offseason?
DC's problem is too many unanswered questions. The biggest question for me is central midfield. On paper it looks fine but the 3 main components there are interesting questions. Boskovic is a DP, but he hasn't had the luck to really get in a groove. In 2010 he joined mid season on perhaps the worst team in MLS history so no real chance to shine. In 2011 he had season ending injury before the season really got going. Is 2012 the year? I hope, but realistically it's not a guarantee. Kitchen is given the reign as the # 1 d mid. I love this kid, but the fact is he's very young and has no experience at this level in that position. Will it work out? I hope so, but he may have some hiccups there. And lastly Saragosa is a reliable MLS vet, but he has been in Azerbaijan for a couple of seasons. Will he perform like he has in the past? Who knows ... Azerbaijan is sort of the wilderness of World football. And there are other questions too. Our big defensive signing is a recent recovery from a serious head injury. Wolff and De Ro are 1 year older. Hamid and Najar will be gone a lot for Olympic qualifiers. Is the young Willis really a legitimate backup keeper? And the most important question mark is the inexperienced coach. Is Olsen going to be able to assemble these pieces into a winning formula? Remember he has to do it from scratch because this team has no recent history of winning anything.
I have no confidence in your coach and his roster-building skills. I'll give you Holgersson for Ream as an even tradeoff, but everything else has been entirely underwhelming so far. NY currently has no clear-cut #1 GK, which, to me at least, should have been the top priority of the offseason. They are also putting a lot of faith in Conde and Marquez to a) stay healthy and b) not be locker-room cancers. Given how Marquez was last year and how Conde has acted in the past, both of those are a pretty tall order. Hell, Conde hasn't played in almost a year, and he's pegged as a starter. And while you may think the acquisition of Cooper is great for depth, I can't help but laugh at how much NY overpaid for a player that Portland was trying to jettison for the second half of 2011. Cooper is a thicker version of Jaqua: his size makes you think he can be a target player, but he's not much of a header, and he wants to dribble around all the time. He might score a handful of goals, but he's not going to intimidate anyone as a steady offensive threat. As for the rest of NY's depth, Palsson might be a gem, but Ballouchy, McCarty, and Agudelo are pretty much the only worthwhile options off the bench, and Agudelo is the only one that might scare an opposing team. So, yes, I see a bleak future for NY if a couple of things go wrong (Henry gets hurt, Conde isn't ready to play, Marquez continues being Marquez). I think Backe has put too much stock in his starting XI at the expense of quality depth, and that the players will run out of steam before the season is through.
That may be the case (although I strongly doubt it), but JK has put his faith in Hamid over the last few months and the shutout he had in his first start probably helped his case to remain there for WCQ after the Olympics duty is done.
Agreed. NY isn't a lock for the playoffs. The eastern conference appears wide open right now. The only lock right now is KC. Anyone else, including Montreal, is perfectly capable of squeaking into the playoffs.
Every team has unanswered questions. However, I think DC has done a better job of addressing those questions than just about every other MLS team this offseason. As for the individual players, we'll know a lot more after the first few games, but I don't think it's as questionable as you make it out to be. Even if they only live up to modest expectations, DC will still have a solid midfield. Dudar's injury was two years ago, and he's played in games since then with no ill effects. People have made what was a pretty freak injury out to be that he is somehow concussion-prone or liable to fall out the moment he takes a header. If his old injury was still an issue, he never would've been signed. And, should Dudar not work out for some reason, DC is still planning on bringing in Nelsen during the summer anyway, and the tandem of Jakovic-MacDonald would have to last until then (July at the latest). As for Wolff, he's not a starter and likely will get spot duty all year. Even at his age, he was still good for a handful of goals and assists last year, which is all the team really needs from him. DeRo is DeRo; he stays in phenomenal shape and now has a reason to keep playing well (new contract). He may be a year older, but he's still one of the most dynamic players in the league. And while Hamid and Najar may miss some games, Olsen brought in replacements (Cruz, Dykstra) to fill in as needed. I'm not nearly as worried about their absences as I would have been a month or so ago. Olsen's been the coach for a year and a half. I don't think it's fair to call him inexperienced anymore. He either knows what he's doing or he doesn't, and he's now had a full offseason to build the team that he wants. How the team does this year will be entirely on his shoulders.
Hmm ... I somewhat disagree. Most of the top teams in MLS like LA, Seattle, RSL and KC are very known quantities. Their systems have been proved to work and they're returning most of their key players. Even the 2nd tier of teams in the mid table, like Houston, Chicago, Dallas and Portland are also returning systems that were moderately successful last year. DC will start the season with 4 new starters (Dudar, Russell, new LB and Salihi), one starter in a new position he's never played at this level (Kitchen) and 3 starters returning from season ending injuries last year (Boskovic, Pontius, Jakovic). Don't get me wrong, it looks great on paper. The FO has done its job in making the right moves, but there's a lot of work that needs to be done by coaches and players to build that winning mentality.
I'm not going to try to estimate what DC will do this year, but the reason for Chicago being rated as a playoff team by most people is that they finished last year really hot (7-2-1 over the last 10 games) and they kept the players that made that turnaround possible. And Houston finished the year well enough too, making MLS Cup. But more than anything, the east is just a big question mark this season. For fans of other teams, DCU probably hasn't done enough to convince people that they will be substantially better than they were at the end of last year. And they had a really disappointing end to last season. They should have made the playoffs from the position they were in down the stretch. I'm also not as convinced as everyone seems to be that KC is the favorite to win the conference . . . they're pretty much winning it by default right now. The only thing I'm completely convinced about is that the east is stronger than it has been the last several years. Way too early to claim this IMO. I know he's gotten a lot of looks in exhibitions, but so has Rimando, and is Guzan really completely out of the picture? I think there's a good chance that Hamid (along with Sean Johnson) will eventually move to the top of the GK depth chart, but it's too early to tell.
Hmm. Let's get this train back on track. Western Conference 1. Los Angeles - I don't think they'll do as well as last year. The defense looks too frail for the west but their goal scoring will balance it out. 2. Seattle - They continue getting stronger. If Johnson works out, they could challenge LA. 3. Dallas - They continued to be strong last year. They'll get their MVP back and make a run. 4. Portland - I'm being a bit of a home fan here. I think we could go as high as #3 or miss altogether. Boyd is a definite improvement over Cooper. Nagbe gets better in year two. The back line continues to solidify. 5. Salt Lake - I think Real is slipping. They could place higher or surprise everyone and explode. They have a tough start. Eastern Conference 1. Kansas City - Everything they're doing impresses me. Starting the season in the new field helps and Sapong will be better in year two. 2. DC - The next three are totally neck and neck. I like what DC has been up to though. 3. Toronto - They have some big guns up front. If they can get the defense to hold together they'll finish well. 4. Columbus - These guys overperform all the time, giving teams much better than them issues. 5. New York - I wouldn't be surprised if they lose this spot to Houston. They're so good on paper but so not in real life. The personalities they have don't mesh well and a lot of their players can be a bit selfish. New England gets the Wooden Spoon. Montreal's back line keeps them ahead of these jokers.
Western Conference 1. Galaxy (Most talented team in the league easily) 2. Seattle (Basic core of players returning, with a lot of firepower) 3. Dallas (Ferreira back) 4. RSL (seem to be falling backwards, need some more new blood) 5. Portland (Should improve on last year) Eastern Conference 1. Sporting KC (solid team, solid organization) 2. Houston (Defense and set pieces win games in this league) 3. DC United (Will be good if the defense can hold up) 4. NY (They need more depth and more grit overall in this organization) 5. Toronto (Philly, Columbus, and Chicago all fighting for this spot) As others have said, the Eastern conference is an unknown quantity and I wouldn't be all that surprised with any result from the teams mentioned above.
It depends how you value the league I guess. They weren't too good for most of the season until the end and only made the playoffs by a fairly small margin. However, you could argue that they did what was necessary in the format set out in front of them and became very successful missing out only in the last game of the season. Regardless, many people outside of Houston don't rate them very high because they don't have the "name players" and play an "ugly" brand of ball. This year Houston has issues up front that it needs to deal with since the loss of Costly. Whether they can cope with the few additions made remains to be seen, but the GK, defense and midfield (depending on the Davis injury) should be very stable from last year.
My guaranteed to not be entirely right picks for the playoffs this year. And because I like the way Andy Staples does his College Football Power rankings, I am going go with a theme, specifically 80's song titles. East 1: Sporting KC - `Alone - As in SKC should be alone at the top of the east. 2: Chicago - We Didn't Start the Fire - Sorry had to be done. 3: Toronto FC - Breakout - I really wanted to go with a certain Madonna song here, but figured that would be expected. So Swingout Sister it is. 4: Houston - Don't Dream It's Over - Are the Dynamo rebuilding, will this be the last hurrah? Hard to tell if last season was a product of a week east or signs of the next generation. 5: Red Bulls - The Heat is On - Must win this season, but I cannot see it happening. West 1: Los Angeles - Going Back to Cali - If the Galaxy have their way the MLS Cup will be going back to Cali. (Thought about London calling, but that was 1979, and we don't know who is in fact Olympic bound.) 2: Seattle - I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For - And that would be an MLS Cup title. Must win a playoff series this year. 3: FC Dallas - In the Heat of the Night - Other west teams will be looking for answers, some will be chasing FCD down. 4: Portland - Sledgehammer - I find this appropriate 5: Real Salt Lake - Don't Let it End - RSL will want to continue their winning ways after this season
Let's be realistic. Houston had the 7th best record in the league. Their fortune was that they came through a very weak Eastern conference where they had the 2nd best record. They did save their best performance for that game against KC in the playoffs. That was clutch and they deserve credit for that. But realistically being 7th best in an 18 team league is the pure definition or "moderately successful". I wouldn't call them world beaters and I don't quite see what they've done this offseason to claim that they've gotten better.
And yet LA is banking on Leonardo to get healthy before the start of the season and hoping he can fill Gonzalez's shoes, Donovan and Keane to come back and re-integrate with the starters rather quickly (and not show fatigue), and Beckham to continue to be productive. Meanwhile, Seattle is depending on Gspurning to take over for Keller, Zakuani to come back healthy, and EJ to return to form. RSL is hoping no one gets hurt, as their depth has taken a sizeable hit this past offseason, while KC will not have the same homestand that they enjoyed last year before their stadium was finished. My point being that every team is going to face serious issues, even the teams considered "favorites" in their respective conferences. Here's where I strongly disagree. With the exception of FCD, DC was within a few points of all those other teams and was in playoff contention until the very last week of the season. If they are deemed 2nd tier teams, then I would be inclined to include DC to that list. And while Houston and Chicago finished the 2011 season strongly that is no indication that a hot streak five months ago will somehow translate into a strong 2012 campaign, especially when both teams have their own major issues to contend with (Houston's lack of quality forwards, Chicago integrating new players). I agree, but the same sort of thing can be said for most of the teams in the East. The difference to me is the talent that was brought in and the talent that was already on the teams prior to the new players coming in. DC has the Carolina Challenge Cup to get everyone on the same page before the season starts, and I think that will be the first glimpse of what the team is truly capable of. I think DC made enough moves to augment a decent team into a team that can challenge for a top finish in their conference. DC can and should aim for higher than just making the playoffs given the overall talent on the roster.
If a season-ending hot streak is why people are rating Chicago, then they are deluding themselves... And here's a perfect example. Houston did well last year due in large part to Brad Davis's career season. He's just now getting back to full training and will still be expected to carry the lion's share of the offense for Houston, due mainly to the fact that Houston's biggest offensive acquisition this offseason was Mac Kanji. Houston will live and die by their defense and set-piece scoring ability, and I don't think that's a reliable strategy for continued long-term success. And if it wasn't for their best midfielder and defender getting injured, they probably would have. As it was, DC was still in the hunt despite those losses and steps have been taken to make sure the team doesn't have that same kind of dropoff again. I think KC is the most cohesive team in the East right now, so they get the benefit of the doubt in most people's minds. I do think that the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year have improved enough to challenge (if not overtake) the teams that did make them. I'd agree that it's probably a little early, but Hamid seems to be the chosen one for right now. He's the likely starter for the Olympic team, and continued success there is only going to further JK's stance on him as the GK for the future. Guzan should be the #2, but his lack of first-team play is really hurting his chances. There's really no way of knowing how JK rates him until the CONCACAF qualifiers start. As for Rimando, he's the token veteran MLS GK that is brought in for any games held stateside, but I don't think he's a candidate for any qualifiers or non-US friendly games anytime soon.
To be fair, I thought the same thing when some people started rating Columbus based on their finish to the 2007 season. . . and then they won the double in 2008 and made me question what I thought I knew. I think it comes down to the question of whether it was the same guys performing better at the end of the season, or whether it was that the team performed better because it added a major piece/pieces. In Columbus's case, one can see in retrospect that adding Schelotto had a lot to do with their surge (much like adding Christian Gomez in mid-season 2004 had a lot to do with theirs). For Chicago, it seemed to come together for them a few games after Pardo arrived, so it's possible that they truly became a better team rather than just getting hot after all the pressure was off. In general, though, I do agree with you on a lot of points. While new players do bring questions, I think DC had a better off-season than some teams did, and that on paper their roster looks better than a couple teams that were mildly better last year but stood closer to pat.
"Houston will live and die by their defense and set-piece scoring ability, and I don't think that's a reliable strategy for continued long-term success." Using that startegy the Dynamo have made the play-offs 5 of 6 seasons, the finals in 3 of them and 2 MLS Cups. How do you define 'long-term' success?
You do realize that the biggest factor of that early success (i.e. two MLS Cups wins) is no longer with the team, right? I'm only pointing out that Houston is almost entirely dependent on set pieces to score and their defense to maintain a lead or tie. It's one thing to rely on a staunch backline for success; it's quite another to have an offense built around the service of one player. If Davis doesn't come back healthy or gets injured again, I don't see how Houston has any chance at the playoffs. As it currently stands, Houston really needed to pick up at least one prominent goalscorer, and, instead, they re-signed a banged up forward and traded for one that sat out for most of 2011. I don't see how picking up those two players makes Houston a stronger team or a team that has improved itself enough to stay competitive in a division where every team has taken steps to better their total offense to some degree.
WEST LAG SEA RSL Big gap, then.... FCD POR EAST Very tight, all the way down........ SKC HOU NYR CHI DCU NER and MTL could sneak in but the top five are slightly better. One prediction though: the Galaxy should win it all again UNLESS they win the Champions League which would make them too emotionally and physically drained by November.
Well we still have a couple weeks before the transfer window closes, but it looks like teams have more than 90% of rosters set. On opening day, the way I see it : 1) Red Bull NY 2) Sporting KC 3) Chicago 4) DC United 5) Toronto FC 1) Los Angeles 2) Seattle 3) Vancouver 4) San Jose 5) Colorado/Salt Lake/Portland (I still can't pick this final sport)
Three people predicted San Jose will make the playoffs. Thirty predicted Toronto would make the playoffs, including one guy who had them winning the East. We are all stupid and unworthy.