Euro 2012 Group B: News & Analysis

It's usual in UEFA that people just do their duty.
Holland did what they had to do against Romania (helping Italy)
Czech Rep. in 2004 where also already through to the next round but defeated Germany anyway to help Holland get the 2nd spot.
This young German team will just win, they want to prove themselves, and Denmark is not a real topclass team.

 

It doesn't have to be an active conspiracy that leads to a result like that. The dynamics of the scoring situation have a lot to do with it. Let's break it down:
When the game started, the score was 0-0. With this result (assuming Italy won their game), Sweden were though and Denmark were out. So therefore Denmark pushed for a score, while Sweden was happy to sit back.
Denmark scored to make it 1-0. With that result, Denmark were though and Sweden were out. So Sweden now was desperate for a goal. Which they got to make it 1-1.
At 1-1, Sweden were though. Denmark was on the bubble, depending on the result of the Italy game (how many goals Italy scored). So Denmark couldn't risk leaving it at 1-1, and they pushed for a goal, which they got.
At 2-1, now Denmark were though and Sweden were out. So Sweden pushed hard for a goal. Furthermore, Denmark knew that if they conceded a goal, they would still go through, so maybe they let up on defense a little(?). Sweden got the goal, and both teams were through.

So they didn't have to meet in a smoke-filled room the night before the match and agree to a 2-2 scoreline. The dynamics of the game drove the score to 2-2 . At each stage, one team was out of the tournament and had to score to stay in, and thus attacked with desperation, until the score reached equilibrium (both teams advancing).

In theory, the same thing could happen with Denmark/Germany. At 0-0, Denmark needs to score or they areout (assuming Portugal beat Netherlands). If they do, it's 1-0 Denmark and Germany is out. So Germany pushes for a goal. If they get it, it's 1-1 and Denmark is out. So they push for a goal; if they get it is 2-1 and Germany is out. If Germany gets a goal to make it 2-2, now Denmark is out, so they push for goal to make it 3-2, and equilibrium is reached (both teams advance). At each point, one team is driven to score again, pushing the teams to the equilibrium point.

 

Funny how the biggest guns of Europe, apart from Gomes, stopped scoring in this group, while the defenses arenot that good. Well, that can change in the last day.

 

Portugal's major weakness is the center forward position, and has been for a long, long time. I think the last great center forward they had was Eusebio back in the 60s. Pauleta and Nuno Gomes were decent center forwards in the recent past, but not amazing. Bento is experimenting with Nelson Oliveira, who has basically no experience with the senior team, but that is why. In recent history Portugal has basically relied on its midfield for goals: Figo, Maniche, Deco, which is why CR7 is under such criticism. However after seeing Nelson's performance in the U-20 last year he could be a difference maker.

With that a side Portugal seem stronger as a team than Denmark and Holland; the latter is just a bunch of stars with no cohesion. Germany were lucky to beat Portugal last Saturday but they deserved their win today. Overall, unless Portugal collapse against Holland, I see Germany and Portugal in the quarterfinal.

 

In fact Germany could perhaps even profit by losing 2-3 to Denmark, since the winner of Group B is most likely going to face Spain in the semi-finals, while the runner-up most likely is going to face the winner of group D (England/France/Ukraine/Sweden) in the semi-finals. ....

So if Germany score twice against Denmark, and perhaps is leading 2-1 like Portugal did, then Germany have nothing to play for in the rest of the match, since a 2-3 loss will probably just give them an easier path, by not having the risk of facing Spain.... so if they score twice, they could chose to take it easy, rest a few players and do a "WC-86". (at the WC-86 Germany lost easily to Denmark in their group in the last match, to avoid Spain in the next round and also later Argentina in the semi-finals, so by losing to Denmark, it was Denmark that won the group but lost 1-5 to Spain in the next round, while Germany got a much easier path by being the runner-up, facing Morocco, Mexico and France on their way to the final against Argentina )..
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All in all Germany will have to face Spain sooner or later. So they will regularly play for victory next sunday. Nothing else!

 

Exactly. You have to beat any team if you want to win the tournament, no matter who you face when. 3 wins after the group stage in any case.

 

I'm just saying that Germany have done it before, throwing a group match they did not really need/want to win... and the German NT coach is talking about perhaps resting a few players against Denmark.
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it doesnt mattter if we face spain in semi final or final since we have to beat them anyway.
and it is just not our "spirit" to lose on purpose to take the assumed "easy" path in order to avoid spain and hope somebody else does the "dirty work" for us and eliminates them.
again, we want to be euro winners. which means we have to beat ANY team. i know spain gave us a hard time 2 times already, but that doesnt mean they will ALWAYS beat us.
we are germany. we are not Kazakhstan or Zimbabwe or something like this. we are 3 times EC and 3 times WC winners. we dont have and need those kind of thoughts. we always fight for the win!

 

Nope. Group C winner cannot meet Group B winner until the final.

 

Still reaching I see. It doesn't matter if Germany rest their starters, their bench team is still outstanding, they are still better then most if not all the Denmark team, and make no mistake Reus and co will play to impress.

 

Germany is bound to become stronger game by game. So in that respect, meeting the toughest opposition at the end would serve Germany best.

The Germans will also want to play at home in Danzig and then Warsaw, meaning they gotta win Group B. Less travel, milder climate, easier for fans, by the looks of it easier route to the final.

 

Sure, we've got a very deep bench. But Jogi's not gonna field a B-team. After all, we haven't even qualified for the knock-out stage!

 

It seem that you never learn that it is about having the better prepared team and not about having the bigger "names" in the team... If Germany are using reserves against Denmark, then it is obviously because they underestimate Denmark as a team to some extend, just like Portugal has done time after time, because why else would they deliberately think of using reserves in a match where they risk going home if they lose by 0-1 or 1-2.

I'm pretty sure Denmark so far is the most efficient team in this tournament, so when you relax a bit and think the game is already won or is going your way, Denmark is going to score goals and make you pay, even if they sometimes make it seem like they are not really producing all that many opportunities... You seem to keep thinking that it is just luck, but you really should know better by now.
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Any particular factors you'd point to, in this regard?

 

I'm sure this is exactly what the German coach and players were thinking in the Euro-92 final, where they were even bigger favorites than this time around... Denmark is of course not fielding the same players, but the tactics and style of play will be pretty much the same and this Danish team is really no better or worse than the team back then... The difference here is that the German NT coach is thinking of using some of his reserves.
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Efficient... as in needing very few opportunities to score goals.
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Don't worry, Loew very much wants to play the quarter final in Gdansk and he won't do Denmark the favor of underestimating the team. He'll field the best German team, but most Germans agree that the best German team at this time does not necessarily include Podolski, which is why many of us are hoping he will give Reus, Schürrle or Götze a chance, if not as a starter then at least after sixty minutes and not 85.

 

In 1992 the Danes stunned the Germans in the final group game. I would love history to repeat itself, from an English point of view. Germans can still go out lets not forget that. Wishful thinking I know!

 

Those Danes also always speak better Dutch than many Dutch people after playing here half a season!

 

Jogi has mentioned recently that he does not want to make significant changes to the starting line-up against Denmark. Boateng is out due to yellow card accumulation so we will see a new right back. I think the only other change we will see is Schurrle or Reus replacing Podolski. Winning the group gives us the best route to the final.

 

Germany will win. Holland will not win with more goals than 1 against Portugal
So 1.Germany 2.Portugal

 

To me, it seems everyone's forgotten 2008 already. The Dutch rested players on the last md and went out, the Portuguese rested players and went out, and even Spain almost failed because of that. I firmly believe that in a tournament like this, it's much more important to keep the momentum going than to go for some vague strategic advantage, be it rested players, specific opponents in the next round or assured qualification