I'm never sure how well this will work, but I like having a place to discuss our CONCACAF WCQ opponents, their teams, players, coaches, results, preparation, etc. as the WCQ process moves along. Posters supporting these other teams are of course welcome to share their insights. As a start I have listed the teams in all three groups, including - because it's our natural focus this year - the 2012 friendly match schedules of our three Group A opponents. Guatemala, with 2 matches v Paraguay, 1 v Guyana, and 2 late tune-ups v Costa Rica, looks to be all set. Jamaica, with 2 matches v Cuba, 1 v New Zealand, 1 v Costa Rica, and 1 v Panama, is preparing seriously and has room for another match in early June. Antigua and Barbuda, with a loss yesterday to Trinidad and Tobago, and just 1 match scheduled, v St. Kitts and Nevis this Saturday, not surprisingly needs to do more. We can also discuss the fortunes of the Group B and Group C teams, of course. Group A Antigua and Barbuda Guatemala Jamaica United States Group B Costa Rica El Salvador Guyana Mexico Group C Canada Cuba Honduras Panama 2012 Pre-WCQ Schedules [as of March 1, per FIFA.com] Group A Antigua and Barbuda (ATG) 29.02.12 ATG 0:4 (0:0) TRI 03.03.12 SKN ___ ____ ATG Guatemala (GUA) 22.02.12 PAR 2:1 (1:0) GUA 29.02.12 GUY 0:2 (0:1) GUA 25.04.12 GUA ___ ____ PAR 26.05.12 CRC ___ ____ GUA 01.06.12 GUA ___ ____ CRC Jamaica (JAM) 22.02.12 JAM 1:0 (0:0) CUB 24.02.12 JAM 3:0 (2:0) CUB 29.02.12 NZL 2:3 (0:1) JAM 21.03.12 JAM ___ ____ CRC 27.05.12 JAM ___ ____ PAN
For perspective ... February 15, 2012 FIFA rankings of CONCACAF teams ... FIFA/CONCACAF {Top-ranked 16 - 12 qualified} 21/1 - Mexico 31/2 - USA 49/3 - Panama 50/4 - Jamaica 54/5 - El Salvador 59/6 - Honduras 63/7 - Costa Rica 71/8 - Canada 71/9 - Haiti 84/10 - Guatemala 85/11 - Trinidad and Tobago 90/12 - Antigua and Barbuda 92/13 - Guyana 105/14 - Bermuda 113/15 - Puerto Rico 116/16 - Cuba Yes, FIFA rankings leave much to be desired; yes, they are just a snapshot in time; yes, we are better than 31st; and yes, we'll be moving up soon.
Yesterday's relevant CONCACAF results New Zealand 2 - 3 Jamaica Antigua and Barbuda 0 - 4 Trinidad & Tobago Guyana 0 - 2 Guatemala Wales 0 - 1 Costa Rica Mexico 0 - 2 Colombia El Salvador 0 - 2 Estonia Armenia 3 - 1 Canada Paraguay 1 - 0 Panama Bolivia 1 - 0 Cuba Ecuador 2 - 0 Honduras Next up ... Saturday, March 3 {'and to 'and combat} St. Kitts and Nevis v Antigua and Barbuda
Agreement of course with your caveats on the FIFA rankings, though I think there are some indicators to be gleaned. To whit, that big knot of similarity of quality (and reasonable quality it is) between Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, and possibly Canada and Haiti. These semifinal groups are probably going to be tight and unpredictable for most... And though they got the bye to the semifinal round due to their good ranking at the right time, Cuba's definitely fallen off from last cycle and is unlikely to make the Hex this time.
Jamaica beating New Zealand in Auckland looks pretty good for CONCACAF's chances of getting a 4th team in the World Cup. Jamaica is a contender for 4th, but I would probably put them as about the 7th or 8th best team in the region. If Jamaica can get a win in NZ then everyone in the hex should be able to.
But sixth in ESPN's latest SPI. I don't think it's wildly irrational to consider Jamaica seventh or eighth best in CONCACAF, although I wouldn't put them quite so low myself. Beating New Zealand in New Zealand is one more piece of evidence that Jamaica's rebound from the abyss is real. Right now I see CONCACAF as: Mexico USA Costa Rica/Honduras/Jamaica/Panama (in some order) El Salvador/Guatemala (in some order)
I have no idea if anyone is watching this evening, but here's a preview of tonight's battle of the (b)ands. http://sknfa.com/?p=1278 What a great question!
So press reports have been trickling in about St. Kitts and Nevis 1-0 Antigua and Barbuda: From Soccerway, we learn that Tiran Hanley had the goal in the 25th minute (not his perhaps more well-known brother, Tishan Hanley). The Daily Observer of Antigua describes the loss as the second straight for the Benna Boys; it is in fact their third straight since clinching advancement to the semifinal round of 2014 World Cup qualifying in CONCACAF.
If Trinidad & Tobago can put 4 past Antigua & Barbuda, we better be racking up our goal difference in that game. I want to be sportsmen, but I wouldn't mind if we won 14-0 like the women. At some point stop celebrating and don't be cruel, but the goals matter. Just in case we F up somewhere.
. . . except that they are the first opponent we play in both halves of the 6-game cycle. That means that we will have our first team on the field for the first match and probably still need our first team to (potentially) lock-up qualification on gameday 4. If they were last in the cycle, using it as a throw-away would make more sense.
Bob took us to Barbados in 2008 for a qualifier . . . and we left a 1-0 victor. Shit happens all the time in CONCACAF qualifying. First law of qualifying- do not f*$% up qualifying. Take care of business first- there's always matchday 6. One edit to above, though, looks like we have a single-week home-and-away with Jamaica in September (that's really f'ed up scheduling by CONCACAF, but we should probably expect no less), so our trip to Antigua is really matchday 5. If all goes well, we clinch qualification in Jamaica and we can have a more experimental camp for the October friendlies. But the first Guatemala match is away, so it's reasonable to assume that we may not clinch until matchday 5, which means we will have a full A-team camp in October.
Remember, when the US traveled to Barbados, the aggregate score was 8-0 and the US was fielding a very weak lineup. Barbados was not scoring 8 goals on the USA in any way, shape, or form, not as long as Howard or Guzan were in goal.
Absolutely - Since Jamaica and Guatemala are also pretty much guaranteed to win big in their home matches against A&B, simply picking up three points in that game doesn't get us very far. A positive result would be one in which we tallied enough goals to be in a good GD situation.
To add to the point, il Bruce took us to Grenada in 2004 for a qualifier... and we left a 3-2 victor. Now, part of the first half was played in near-monsoon conditions, and thus the rest of the game was played in a mud pit. Also, we had a 3-0 result from the first game, and we ran out to a 6-0 aggregate lead before Grenada clawed two back ("clawing back" sounds over-harsh; Grenada's second goal was a thing of beauty.) But still, it's important to maximize our chances of not dropping points to Antigua and Barbuda.
We want a great goal differential but I certainly hope we don't need the goal differential tiebreaker to advance to the Hexagonal. Last cycle we finished 10 points ahead of third place Guatemala in the Semifinals. In qualifying for World Cup 2006 we finished 5 points ahead of third place Jamaica in the Semifinals.
By way of contrast, in qualifying for World Cup 2002, we finished just one point ahead of Costa Rica and Guatemala in the semifinals.