DC has 4 games in 10 days to end the season, starting with a cross country trip to Vancouver. Yikes....I almost feel sorry for them. Nah, not really.
Philly's win really hurt our chances of winning the conference. Code: [B]Team East Top3 Wild[/B] PHI 74.1 99.5 100.0 SKC 17.8 78.3 98.2 NYR 04.1 38.3 79.8 CLB 02.1 40.8 82.0 DCU 01.2 20.5 47.0 HOU 00.7 20.5 62.3 CHI [COLOR="Red"]OUT[/COLOR] 02.0 08.3 East - % Chance of winning the Eastern Conference Top3 - % Chance of finishing in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference Wild - % Chance of making the playoffs Projections right now: 51 points should win the East 48 points should put us in the top 3 in the East 45 points should put us in the playoffs
What to root for this week, solely from the perspective of us waking up Sunday morning with a playoff spot in hand. Win and we're in, but a draw can also put us in if certain results go our way: Wednesday: Chicago - FC Dallas - Draw. A draw puts Chicago permanently behind us, but leaves them with enough hope to give DC a game on Saturday. Vancouver over DCU. If DCU doesn't win a game this week, we only need a draw Saturday to effectively put them in our mirrors. Friday: Houston - Portland. We just want a 1-goal victory by someone here. The loser will be on max points of 46, which we would have with a draw, and we hold the head-to-head tiebreaker on both of them. Saturday: Chicago over DCU. Two losses, or a loss and a draw, put DCU on max points of 44 or 45, and thereby dead to us with our supposed draw with NY. Two draws by DC put them at 40 points, with 46 max points. They would need to win out AND make up 8 goals in the last week to get ahead of us in goal differential. The table between these teams would look like this, with our draw against NY and if DC gets two points, even assuming a Chicago win over FCD (Team/PTS/MPP): SKC 46 49 HOU 46 49 (NYR 44 47) CHI 41 44 DCU 40 46 POR 40 46 (13th place in the table) Give Portland the win instead: SKC 46 49 (NYR 44 47) POR 43 49 HOU 43 46 CHI 41 44 DCU 40 46 (13th place in the table) We need to put 3 teams permanently behind us to lock up a spot this weekend. Chicago is dead to us. With a Houston win, DC and Portland play the last week, and one of them is also dead. We hold the individual tiebreaker over Portland. For DC to get to 46, they will need to win out (which includes beating us), and rack up a GD of 8 over the two games to win a tiebreaker with us. So they would be very very nearly dead to us, given we could just bunker the last game away if necessary. So there's 3, more or less. In a 3-way tie with DC and Houston, we win on points. We also win a 3-way tie with Houston and Portland on points. Just ignore the stuff in red here:goes to GD, with Houston (currently on 0, Portland is at -6, but if I'm reading the rules right Portland is dead anyway with an 0-0-4 record) needing to make up several goals against LA on the very last day of the season to win it. Let's give Portland the win instead. Chicago is still dead. We hold the tiebreaker over Houston, making 2. DC and Portland play the last week, so either DC is dead (making 3) or there is still a potential 3-way tie with DC and Portland, which comes down to DC's huge GD deficit again, in two games the opponent would very much like to win. So there's 3 again, more or less. In the highly entertaining case of a 4-way tie at 46 between KC, HOU, DC and POR, we win the thing on points. So for this week, one point from us, two (or fewer) points for DC, any non-win for Chicago, and a winner in the Portland-Houston game makes it all over but the shouting. We only need to hope that all relevant victories are by one goal. Whew!
Root specifically for Portland in order to improve SKC's chances of clinching a top-three spot in the Eastern Conference. A draw in that game is also sufficient as long as SKC beats New York. No--with a head-to-head record against those two teams of three wins and a draw, SKC already comes out on top in this scenario. Merely to clinch a playoff spot, yes. Three points for SKC and any two of the following this week ensure avoidance of the wildcard round: (a) no more than three points for DC. (b) no more than one point for Houston. (c) no points for Columbus. Actually, even one point for Columbus is almost certainly okay due to SKC's huge advantage (10) in goal differential. Should all of these things happen, SKC can finish no worse than second.
Dammit, you are right. We have a win and a draw against Houston. I've managed to screw that up at least once every time I've analyzed a 3-way tiebreaker, but this is the first time I didn't catch it before posting.
That's one down. If Vancouver can hold this lead, DC will have to win out to get ahead of us. And their last two games are against Portland and, of course, us.
Here is an update on all possible clinches/eliminations this weekend: http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2011/10/13/playoff-scenarios-possibilities-week-31-updated The schedule makers look like geniuses at this point in the season. Houston-Portland has all sorts of drama written all over it. I'm glad we have an early game on Saturday...that DC-Chicago game should also be fun to watch. If DC loses, they can't catch us, regardless of our results. Chicago is already in the rearview mirror, thanks to Dallas. Hopefully New England will embrace the role of spoiler and do some damage to Columbus as well.
While it doesn't matter now, being down 2 to Houston didn't stop us. Imagine if that game happened at LSP... That being said, as awesome as those moments are, giving up 3 goals still isn't awesome.
Yes, now we need SKC to win and Columbus to lose to clinch a top-three spot in the Eastern Conference. Even a draw by the Crew almost certainly gets the job done, since that would keep them at -3 on goal differential and SKC would be +8 minimum. Go New England!
Winning by two today makes it that much more likely--nearly certain, I would say--that a draw in New England tonight is enough. Even if Columbus wins, SKC will only need a draw at DC to lock up a top-three spot, since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston. Anything less than a win for Columbus or Houston next week would also do the trick. First place is obviously the objective now. Should Columbus lose or draw this evening and Philadelphia lose or draw on Thursday, SKC can clinch that title with a draw at DC. Otherwise, it will take a win to lock it up--Columbus plays at Chicago an hour later--and if the Union beats the Red Bulls, SKC will have to match or exceed their margin of victory. Should that not happen, avoiding the wildcard round is still critical, but I am on the fence as to whether second or third place is preferable. Finishing second means playing the second leg at home, including extra time and penalties if necessary, on a weeknight; but ending up third means getting the first leg at home on a Saturday or Sunday, when LSP is more likely to be packed to the gills (again).
Interesting: theoretically, if Philadelphia drew their next game 5-5 and we drew with DC 0-0, the tiebreaker would go to the fair play table. Not going to happen, but that's how tight it is. EDIT: And it looks like we have committed 29 more fouls than Philly.
(I deleted the post you responded to,because I was saying the exact thing you did! Just in case anyone wondered.) Bonus odd thing about the situation: If Columbus draws tonight, both we and Philly win an individual tiebreaker over them on GD. But Columbus takes a 3-way tie at 48 points.
I really wish the league hadn't spread all the games out in the last week of the season, seems cheap knowing we will know the Philly result for two days before taking the field and of course Houston will know exactly what they have to do (or not have to do) before they wake up for their final match. I realize the league has tv contracts and what not but with everything they have been doing right over the last few years I wish they would correct this small mistake...... cough- single table -cough