Now two wins for SKC in their remaining three games would effectively clinch a top-three spot in the Eastern Conference regardless of what anyone else does. Time to take care of business in San Jose . . .
Updated percentages after the HOU-CHI, NYR-TOR, and SEA-NER games: Code: [B]Team East Top3 Wild[/B] SKC 42.5 85.9 98.6 PHI 36.0 79.6 97.9 DCU 11.2 43.5 73.1 NYR 04.0 21.4 58.1 HOU 03.2 33.5 79.7 CLB 03.0 27.8 66.1 CHI 00.0 03.3 16.5 East - % Chance of winning the Eastern Conference Top3 - % Chance of finishing in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference Wild - % Chance of making the playoffs Projections right now: 50 points should win the East 47 points should put us in the top 3 in the East 45 points should put us in the playoffs
And after all the games tonight: Code: [B]Team East Top3 Wild[/B] SKC 39.2 86.8 99.3 PHI 37.8 85.5 97.7 DCU 11.9 42.4 72.4 NYR 04.8 21.5 57.3 HOU 03.2 33.2 78.4 CLB 03.2 27.4 64.3 CHI 00.0 03.3 15.2 East - % Chance of winning the Eastern Conference Top3 - % Chance of finishing in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference Wild - % Chance of making the playoffs Projections right now: 49/51 points should win the East 47 points should put us in the top 3 in the East 45 points should put us in the playoffs
Amazing that we're sitting two points clear at the top of the conference, with only two games remaining to play, and we still haven't even clinched a playoff spot. Mere formality, though. We're as good as in - almost guaranteed a top 3 spot as well. Thanks for the work, vividox.
Yes. I can spin out a scenario where we don't earn another point and finish 12th. Granted, it requires that more games than usual don't end in a draw, but we are not safe yet.
that really makes me smile. now the yankees need to get crushed by detroit and st. louis needs to bow out before anyone remembers they're there.
After Sunday's games: Code: [B]Team East Top3 Wild[/B] SKC 42.0 86.3 98.9 PHI 38.3 87.5 98.2 CLB 06.8 50.2 88.5 DCU 05.3 25.2 55.1 NYR 04.6 19.9 49.6 HOU 02.9 27.7 70.5 CHI 00.0 03.1 10.7 East - % Chance of winning the Eastern Conference Top3 - % Chance of finishing in the top 3 of the Eastern Conference Wild - % Chance of making the playoffs Projections right now: 49/51 points should win the East 47 points should put us in the top 3 in the East 45 points should put us in the playoffs
So now we are rooting for Seattle this week.....that certainly feels a little dirty. Let's just beat the Cows and get it overwith already. I don't want to go into DC without a top 3 spot already clinched.
A look at what remains for each of the teams with anything much to play for. The playoff cut currently projects to 44 points, btw. FCD - 46CHI, VAN, @SJE CLR - 45: RSL, @VAN SKC - 45: NYR, @DCU PHI - 44: @SEA, TFC, @NYR CBS - 44: @NER, @CHI HOU - 43: @POR, LAG NYR - 40: LAG, @SKC, PHI POR - 40: HOU, @DCU, @RSL DCU - 38: @VAN, CHI, POR, SKC CHI - 37: FCD, @DCU, CBS Those teams with only two games left are at a serious disadvantage and it is reasonable to assume that their positions might slip. Note that United not only have four left, but their last three are all at home, and the other one is racing with the parking brake on. The table is set and no excuses remain for them at this point. DC is going to be in high gear for our game and we had better be prepared for that.
Just looking at the East, I think I would rather keep our schedule than trade it with anybody else at this point. There may not be many games this week, but the LA/NY and POR/HOU games are going to have a huge influence on the wildcard race.
POR/HOU is not until 10/14. SEA/PHI is the other big MLS game this week (Saturday) besides NYR/LAG (Tuesday).
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2011/10/04/playoff-scenarios-possibilities-week-30 It's pretty basic for us: Sporting Kansas City will clinch a berth in the MLS Cup Playoffs if they defeat New York (Oct. 15) AND •New York loses or ties vs. LA Galaxy OR •Portland and Houston tie (Oct. 14) So this officially makes the NY game a must win.
Here's how we sit on the first two tiebreakers (head to head and Goal Differential) against our playoff spot rivals. I won't dig into the third tiebreaker until absolutely necessary. Philadelphia - currently tied on Goal differential Colorado - SKC leads by 5 in GD Columbus - SKC leads by 10 in GD Houston - SKC won the season series Portland - SKC won the season series DC - Still TBD. SKC won the first game, up 7 in GD New York - Still TBD, NY won the first game. SKC up 2 in GD And the unlikely/probably irrelevant ones: Chicago - Fire won the season series, but they have to win out and SKC get one more point for the tie to happen. Dallas - SKC leads by 5 in GD, but they have to lose out while we pick up one point for the tie to happen at 46 points. A tie at 47 or more means both teams are probably in the playoffs anyway, but I will revisit if it becomes necessary. Just for grins, here's a not-unreasonable set of outcomes that (I think) get us in the playoffs without scoring another point: Houston: Draws with Portland, doesn't beat LA AND Portland: Doesn't get full points from both of their other two games (@DC and @RSL) AND Chicago: Gets less than full points from any game (FCD, @DCU, CMB) In this situation, SKC wins any tiebreakers at 45 with Portland and Houston (and a 3-way tie), and Chicago is out of the picture. If NY loses to LA tonight, they would also need to win their final two games to get ahead of us, but let's not count that chicken until it's out of the shell and going "peep peep".
Actually, unless I am missing something, a win over New York clinches a playoff spot for SKC no matter what else happens. That would get SKC to 48 points and limit the Red Bulls to a maximum of 46 points even if they beat LA. Should Portland beat Houston or vice-versa, the loser of that game would also be limited to a maximum of 46 points, leaving at most only 10 teams still capable of getting to 47 or more points. If Houston loses to or draws with Portland, and either Columbus or DC loses (or Philadelphia loses twice), then a win over New York also clinches a top-three spot in the Eastern Conference for SKC. Of course, in the unlikely event that all of those things happen, then a win over New York clinches first place in the Eastern Conference for SKC. If New York loses to or draws with LA tonight, and Houston beats Portland or vice-versa (no draw), then a draw with New York clinches a playoff spot for SKC, since they win the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Houston and Portland.
I like less complicated. Clinching our spot against NY means we could be a spoiler to DC (though I figure with 4 games left, they could already know their fate by 10/22), and that would be a nice little treat to end the season with. Gawd, this NY game is huge. Gotta gotta gotta win it.
Well, again, unless at least two other results go the right way over the next two weeks, SKC will still be playing for a top-three spot on 10/22. I think that it is critical to avoid the wildcard round, and there is a legitimate home-field advantage at LSP that finishing first in the conference would provide.
Here you go: http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2011/10/05/playoff-scenarios-possibilities-week-30-updated Win and in....plus it looks like every other team will likely be rooting for us to beat NY as well, as our result will impact damn near everybody's chances next week. No pressure.....
While several teams can lock in a spot with a win, the only team I'm 100% certain can be eliminated next week is Chicago. That last weekend of the season shouldn't lack for drama...