You people are all masochists. Thanks to all of you for doing this, since no one else can, will, or is crazy enough to do so (even the league office).
I love tiebreakers. I just dislike hypothetical discussions about possible tiebreakers when there's still ~4 weeks left in the season. as much as I wanted to see a 9-team tie for 10th place this season, it ain't happening. so, we'll see who stands where come Oct 23 around 9pm ET. and if ties are in place (a very real possibility certainly), then we can let MLS muddle through the tie-breaking procedure to see if they can apply their own regulations correctly. (although, I've got nothing against this overall discussion and working through the hypothetical or conditional possibilities, as an exercise.) what I'd really like to see now is for some team from the East tie for 3rd in their conference, yet miss out on the playoffs. can someone work out that possible scenario?
Bah, I liked my quick, clean, easy version better. Because, c'mon. NE is going to make up 12 points AND 20 goals on NY, AND DC ties both of them? Does that happen before or after I'm dating a cavalcade of Victoria's Secret models?
What I enjoy seeing is that with 5 matches left in their season, Chicago has a mathematical chance of both: Finishing 1st in the East. Finishing Dead Last in the entire MLS table. Has that ever been the case this late in the season?
I don't have time to work out the numbers right now, but I think it would be doable. FCD, Colorado, Chivas, and Portland would all have to have more points as the 3rd place Eastern Conference team, or the same number of points and win out on the tie-breaker for the wild card spot. Considering only FCD and Colorado play each other of those four, it should be possible.
Right. I shouldn't have said "final ranking" on my table above. I meant final ranking only for that one table, not for how the non-advancing teams would ultimately rank on the tiebreaker's second stage.
exactly. could there potentially be 3 (or 4) teams tied for 3rd in the East (and level on points with some Western Conf team(s) battling for the final Wildcard spots)? again, seems possible, but who knows how likely? in such a case, I'd imagine the league would do a tiebreaker first to see who gets 3rd in the East. and then it would reset and move on to determine the available wildcard slots for all teams level on points.
I think everyone looked at the note but missed the paragraph above it which clearly states that someone has to advance. But does a team that "drops out" or doesn't advance from step one to step two get a second chance at step one once the advancing team is determined, or does it mean once you drop out you are in the lowest possible position? Thx, Jay!
Let me try to understand you better. Here is my example from last year: Code: [B][U]First Tie-Breaking Round[/U] Clash Metros Fusion Mutiny Total Clash ----- 1-0-1 1-0-1 0-2-0 2-2-2 Metros 1-0-1 ----- 1-1-0 0-1-1 2-2-2 Fusion 1-0-1 0-1-1 ----- 1-1-0 2-2-2 Mutiny 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-1-1 ----- 1-4-1 W D L PTS PPG GD GF Fusion 2 2 2 8 1.33 +3 25 Metros 2 2 2 8 1.33 +2 30 Clash 2 2 2 8 1.33 +1 35 Mutiny 1 4 1 7 1.17 +4 20 Final Mutiny ranking determined by PPG. All other final rankings by GD. Fusion advances on GD. [U]Second Tie-Breaking Round[/U] Clash Metros Mutiny Total Clash ----- 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-2-1 Metros 1-0-1 ----- 0-1-1 1-1-2 Mutiny 0-2-0 1-1-0 ----- 1-3-0 W D L PTS PPG GD GF Mutiny 1 3 0 6 1.5 +4 20 Metros 1 2 1 5 1.25 +2 30 Clash 1 1 2 4 1 +1 35 All final rankings on PPG. Mutiny advance on PPG. [U]Third Tie-Breaking Round[/U] Clash Metros Total Clash ----- 1-0-1 1-0-1 Metros 1-0-1 ----- 1-0-1 W D L PTS PPG GD GF Metros 1 0 1 3 1.5 +2 30 Clash 1 0 1 3 1.5 +1 35 All final rankings on GD. Metros advance on GD. [U]Final Ranking[/U] Fusion Mutiny Metros Clash[/B] Using this example, what exactly are you wondering about? Aren't you asking about the Mutiny in this example?
I can do a little better than that. It's theoretically possible for Houston, Columbus, Kansas City, Philly, NY Red Bulls, DC, and Chicago to tie on 43 points, while LA, RSL, Seattle, Portland, Dallas, Colorado, and Chivas have 44+. So you'd have to do a seven team tie-breaker, then a six team one, then a five team one. Then the rest for SuperDraft purposes, but that's not exactly the key issue. Extremely unlikely, but still possible.
Yes. So the fact that the Mutiny was eliminated at the first tie breaker between the four teams doesn't put them in the lowest position? I would figure that once you lose the tiebreaker you are no longer tied on points with the other teams. But that's just my reading of it. Thx, Jay!
apparently, per MLS's regulations, teams can only "win" (or advance from) a tiebreaker. (individual) teams don't "lose" a tiebreaker.
excellent. so although we've lost the possibility for a 10-18 position tie, we could still get the top 7 in the East all tied at season's end. that would be wonderful (however unlikely). and, as you note, the SuperDraft is always a (lesser) key to remember (and tiebreakers can/may be used to differentiate beyond the top10/playoff teams).
I suspect that's consistent with how most leagues handle tiebreakers. And if you think MLS' rules are convoluted, check out how many two-division college basketball conferences break ties to seed their postseason tournaments sometime....
Correct. In the example the 4-way winner advances, and then the other three reset and start over again with a 3-way head-to-head. We hashed this out at long length last year and confirmed it all as best we could. I'm 99% positive that the example I posted really is how it works. I might like it otherwise, and I'd definitely prefer a different system, but that is, apparently, how MLS does it.
Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ... I can't speak to NER with certainty and I threw out my notes from last night but I started doing multi-team tiebreak scenarios for TFC and still haven't found one that gets them into the playoffs. First, things to keep in mind: 1) TFC has to win out to equal NY's 39 points. That means they have to beat NY and that result is assumed in all of these tiebreaks. 2) DCU must tie Portland or one of them goes above TFC's MPP. That also leaves DCU on 39 points and means that, at best, TFC can only be part of a 3 team tie on 39 points at the end of the season. Any 4, 5, or 6 team tiebreak must include NY and DCU as well. A DCU - Portland draw and United losing any other remaining matches are built into any scenario below. 3) NER's loss to the Fire simplifies things considerably. Because NER and TFC play each other on the final day only one of those teams can reach 39 points so NER cannot be in any tiebreak involving TFC. 4) These tiebreak scenarios are for the 10th and final MLS Cup playoff position. TFC must WIN the tiebreak, no matter how many teams are added, or they are eliminated. I don't care who actually wins the tiebreak(!) so it's not necessary to go to second or third criteria so long as TFC is not tied for the first position. The three team tie: DCU 7 NYR 6 TFC 4 Four team ties: w/ Portland DCU 11 NYR 10 TFC 8 POR 2 w/ Chivas DCU 11 CHV 9 NYR 7 TFC 5 w/ Chicago (notice, CHI must beat DCU or TFC is eliminated) CHI 10 DCU 8 NYR 8 TFC 5 w/ San Jose DCU 10 NYR 10 SJE 6 TFC 6 Five team ties: w/ Portland and Chivas DCU 15 CHV 12 NYR 11 TFC 9 POR 5 w/ Portland and Chicago DCU 12 NYR 12 CHI 10 TFC 9 POR 8 w/ Portland and San Jose DCU 14 NYR 14 SJE 10 TFC 10 POR 3 w/ Chivas and Chicago CHI 14 DCU 12 CHV 10 NYR 9 TFC 6 w/ Chivas and San Jose CHV 15 DCU 14 NYR 11 TFC 7 SJE 6 w/ Chicago and San Jose DCU 13 NYR 12 CHI 11 SJE 10 TFC 7 Six team ties: w/ Portland, Chivas, and Chicago DCU 16 CHI 14 NYR 13 CHV 13 POR 11 TFC 10 w/ Portland, Chivas, and San Jose DCU 18 NYR 15 TFC 11 ... I'm losing my mind at this point (and I'm sure I've made a few mistakes) but I'm telling you: TFC is done. I just can't see how adding bad head-to-head results together will magically result in a different tiebreak TFC wins. Someone else pedantic enough (and with better Excel skills) can take on NER.
Ah, the annual MLS tie-breaker confuse-a-thon! MLS tie-breakers are not about ranking all teams involved with the tie-break (although this does inadvertently happen when it's just two teams tied), it's about determining the ONE team who wins the tie-break. It's Charlie Sheen as the Highlander: THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE team who is #WINNING.
... The East is The Beast Update ... Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 30 04 17 10 03 61 2.03 69 73 13 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 02 SEA 30 04 15 09 06 54 1.80 61 66 06 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 03 RSL 30 04 15 06 09 51 1.70 58 63 03 -- -- -- ---- ---- W[/COLOR] 04 FCD 30 04 13 07 10 46 1.53 52 58 -- 20 05 -- ---- ---- W 05 SKC 31 03 11 11 09 44 1.42 48 53 -- 15 07 -- 0.33 0.66 E 06 PHI 29 05 09 13 07 40 1.38 47 55 -- 17 11 -- 1.00 1.19 E 07 DCU 28 06 09 11 08 38 1.36 46 56 -- 18 13 -- 1.17 1.33 E 08 COL 31 03 10 12 09 42 1.35 46 51 -- 13 09 -- 1.00 1.32 W 09 HOU 31 03 10 12 09 42 1.35 46 51 -- 13 09 -- 1.00 1.32 E 10 CMB 31 03 11 08 12 41 1.32 45 50 -- 12 10 -- 1.33 1.66 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 30 04 08 15 07 39 1.30 44 51 -- 13 12 -- 1.50 1.74 E 12 POR 30 04 10 07 13 37 1.23 42 49 -- 11 14 01 2.00 2.24 W 13 CHI 30 04 07 15 08 36 1.20 41 48 -- 10 15 02 2.25 2.49 E 14 CHV 31 03 08 11 12 35 1.13 38 44 -- 06 16 03 ---- ---- W 15 SJE 30 04 06 13 11 31 1.03 35 43 -- 05 20 07 ---- ---- W 16 TFC 31 03 06 12 13 30 0.97 33 39 -- 01 21 08 ---- ---- E 17 NER 30 04 05 12 13 27 0.90 31 39 -- 01 24 11 ---- ---- E [COLOR="Gray"]18 VAN 29 05 04 10 15 22 0.76 26 37 -- -- -- 16 ---- ---- W[/COLOR] Current AD-Baseline: 46 Down 1 since last update. Set by CMB’s 45 point, 1.32 PPG pace. [/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical. - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds. - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon. - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B] Notes What a difference one game makes! Last time we saw CMB they were sitting at 6th place. Today they've fallen to 10th: a massive loss for a massive team. That's what it's like in a tight playoff race. SKC's 44 points, which leads the East, is probably only a point away from guaranteeing a post-season berth. Meanwhile, what slim chance RSL had of catching LAG to win the SS is gone. Another LAG win, and RSL will be eliminated from the race. Finally, no doubt the CHI faithful will be hearing about how their team's recent run of form has put them into playoff contention. Nonsense. CHI was so far gone before they got onto this streak that two or three wins are not going to make a big difference. After their win today CHI's HD# improved only by a puny 0.15 PPG. It now stands at 2.25 PPG -- a still very steep mountain. So, yes, CHI has won its last 3 games. But as I said in the last update, that's just not enough. CHI has 4 games left. It likely needs to win 3 of them. If CHI wins another 2 in a row, I might start to take them seriously. Until then, nope.
Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ... Has DC had some games rescheduled? While the games in hand a nice thing to have, if you've got to spend them at a grueling pace, that takes some of the shine off. Normally you don't see this kind of difference in games remaining this close to the end of the season.
Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ... So was I. I was looking at the old table when I wrote that. Corrected. (I knew something didn't seem right!) The POR game was rescheduled.