The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 25, 2011.

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  1. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #151 Yoshou, Sep 26, 2011
    Fair enough. I hate tie breakers. ;)
     
  2. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #152 tomwilhelm, Sep 26, 2011
    You people are all masochists. :)

    Thanks to all of you for doing this, since no one else can, will, or is crazy enough to do so (even the league office).
     
  3. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    #153 tab5g, Sep 26, 2011
    I love tiebreakers.

    I just dislike hypothetical discussions about possible tiebreakers when there's still ~4 weeks left in the season.

    as much as I wanted to see a 9-team tie for 10th place this season, it ain't happening.

    so, we'll see who stands where come Oct 23 around 9pm ET. and if ties are in place (a very real possibility certainly), then we can let MLS muddle through the tie-breaking procedure to see if they can apply their own regulations correctly.

    (although, I've got nothing against this overall discussion and working through the hypothetical or conditional possibilities, as an exercise.)

    what I'd really like to see now is for some team from the East tie for 3rd in their conference, yet miss out on the playoffs. can someone work out that possible scenario?
     
  4. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    #154 RapidStorm, Sep 26, 2011
    Bah, I liked my quick, clean, easy version better. :p

    Because, c'mon. NE is going to make up 12 points AND 20 goals on NY, AND DC ties both of them?

    Does that happen before or after I'm dating a cavalcade of Victoria's Secret models?
     
  5. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #155 bgix, Sep 26, 2011

    What I enjoy seeing is that with 5 matches left in their season, Chicago has a mathematical chance of both:


    1. Finishing 1st in the East.
    2. Finishing Dead Last in the entire MLS table.
    Has that ever been the case this late in the season?
     
  6. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    #156 GreatGonzo, Sep 26, 2011
    I don't have time to work out the numbers right now, but I think it would be doable. FCD, Colorado, Chivas, and Portland would all have to have more points as the 3rd place Eastern Conference team, or the same number of points and win out on the tie-breaker for the wild card spot. Considering only FCD and Colorado play each other of those four, it should be possible.
     
  7. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #157 Knave, Sep 26, 2011
    Right. I shouldn't have said "final ranking" on my table above. I meant final ranking only for that one table, not for how the non-advancing teams would ultimately rank on the tiebreaker's second stage.
     
  8. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    #158 tab5g, Sep 26, 2011
    exactly.

    could there potentially be 3 (or 4) teams tied for 3rd in the East (and level on points with some Western Conf team(s) battling for the final Wildcard spots)? again, seems possible, but who knows how likely?

    in such a case, I'd imagine the league would do a tiebreaker first to see who gets 3rd in the East. and then it would reset and move on to determine the available wildcard slots for all teams level on points.
     
  9. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    #159 JayRockers!, Sep 26, 2011
    I think everyone looked at the note but missed the paragraph above it which clearly states that someone has to advance.

    But does a team that "drops out" or doesn't advance from step one to step two get a second chance at step one once the advancing team is determined, or does it mean once you drop out you are in the lowest possible position?

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
  10. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #160 Knave, Sep 26, 2011
    Let me try to understand you better.

    Here is my example from last year:
    Code:
    [B][U]First Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Fusion  Mutiny  Total
Clash    -----   1-0-1   1-0-1   0-2-0   2-2-2
Metros   1-0-1   -----   1-1-0   0-1-1   2-2-2
Fusion   1-0-1   0-1-1   -----   1-1-0   2-2-2
Mutiny   0-2-0   1-1-0   0-1-1   -----   1-4-1

         W   D   L   PTS PPG    GD   GF
Fusion   2   2   2   8   1.33   +3   25
Metros   2   2   2   8   1.33   +2   30
Clash    2   2   2   8   1.33   +1   35
Mutiny   1   4   1   7   1.17   +4   20

Final Mutiny ranking determined by PPG. All other final rankings by GD. 
Fusion advances on GD.

[U]Second Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Mutiny  Total
Clash    -----   1-0-1   0-2-0   1-2-1
Metros   1-0-1   -----   0-1-1   1-1-2
Mutiny   0-2-0   1-1-0   -----   1-3-0

         W   D   L   PTS PPG   GD   GF
Mutiny   1   3   0   6   1.5   +4   20
Metros   1   2   1   5   1.25  +2   30
Clash    1   1   2   4   1     +1   35

All final rankings on PPG. Mutiny advance on PPG. 

[U]Third Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Total 
Clash    -----   1-0-1   1-0-1
Metros   1-0-1   -----   1-0-1

        W   D   L   PTS  PPG   GD   GF
Metros  1   0   1   3    1.5   +2   30
Clash   1   0   1   3    1.5   +1   35

All final rankings on GD. Metros advance on GD. 

[U]Final Ranking[/U] 

Fusion 
Mutiny
Metros
Clash[/B]
    Using this example, what exactly are you wondering about?

    Aren't you asking about the Mutiny in this example?
     
  11. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    #161 GreatGonzo, Sep 26, 2011
    I can do a little better than that. It's theoretically possible for Houston, Columbus, Kansas City, Philly, NY Red Bulls, DC, and Chicago to tie on 43 points, while LA, RSL, Seattle, Portland, Dallas, Colorado, and Chivas have 44+. So you'd have to do a seven team tie-breaker, then a six team one, then a five team one. Then the rest for SuperDraft purposes, but that's not exactly the key issue.

    Extremely unlikely, but still possible.
     
  12. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    #162 JayRockers!, Sep 26, 2011
    Yes.

    So the fact that the Mutiny was eliminated at the first tie breaker between the four teams doesn't put them in the lowest position? I would figure that once you lose the tiebreaker you are no longer tied on points with the other teams. But that's just my reading of it.

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
  13. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    #163 tab5g, Sep 26, 2011
    apparently, per MLS's regulations, teams can only "win" (or advance from) a tiebreaker. (individual) teams don't "lose" a tiebreaker.
     
  14. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    #164 tab5g, Sep 26, 2011
    excellent. so although we've lost the possibility for a 10-18 position tie, we could still get the top 7 in the East all tied at season's end. that would be wonderful (however unlikely).

    and, as you note, the SuperDraft is always a (lesser) key to remember (and tiebreakers can/may be used to differentiate beyond the top10/playoff teams).
     
  15. YilmazOrhan

    YilmazOrhan Well Brian, I hit it first time...

    Jun 18, 2006
    Suburbia, Kansas
    Club:
    Kansas City Wizards
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #165 YilmazOrhan, Sep 26, 2011
    I suspect that's consistent with how most leagues handle tiebreakers. And if you think MLS' rules are convoluted, check out how many two-division college basketball conferences break ties to seed their postseason tournaments sometime....
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #166 Knave, Sep 26, 2011
    Correct. In the example the 4-way winner advances, and then the other three reset and start over again with a 3-way head-to-head.

    We hashed this out at long length last year and confirmed it all as best we could. I'm 99% positive that the example I posted really is how it works.

    I might like it otherwise, and I'd definitely prefer a different system, but that is, apparently, how MLS does it.
     
  17. BHTC Mike

    BHTC Mike Member+

    Apr 12, 2006
    Burlington, ON
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #167 BHTC Mike, Sep 26, 2011
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    I can't speak to NER with certainty and I threw out my notes from last night but I started doing multi-team tiebreak scenarios for TFC and still haven't found one that gets them into the playoffs.

    First, things to keep in mind:

    1) TFC has to win out to equal NY's 39 points. That means they have to beat NY and that result is assumed in all of these tiebreaks.

    2) DCU must tie Portland or one of them goes above TFC's MPP. That also leaves DCU on 39 points and means that, at best, TFC can only be part of a 3 team tie on 39 points at the end of the season. Any 4, 5, or 6 team tiebreak must include NY and DCU as well. A DCU - Portland draw and United losing any other remaining matches are built into any scenario below.

    3) NER's loss to the Fire simplifies things considerably. Because NER and TFC play each other on the final day only one of those teams can reach 39 points so NER cannot be in any tiebreak involving TFC.

    4) These tiebreak scenarios are for the 10th and final MLS Cup playoff position. TFC must WIN the tiebreak, no matter how many teams are added, or they are eliminated. I don't care who actually wins the tiebreak(!) so it's not necessary to go to second or third criteria so long as TFC is not tied for the first position.

    The three team tie:

    DCU 7
    NYR 6
    TFC 4

    Four team ties:

    w/ Portland
    DCU 11
    NYR 10
    TFC 8
    POR 2

    w/ Chivas
    DCU 11
    CHV 9
    NYR 7
    TFC 5

    w/ Chicago (notice, CHI must beat DCU or TFC is eliminated)
    CHI 10
    DCU 8
    NYR 8
    TFC 5

    w/ San Jose
    DCU 10
    NYR 10
    SJE 6
    TFC 6

    Five team ties:

    w/ Portland and Chivas
    DCU 15
    CHV 12
    NYR 11
    TFC 9
    POR 5

    w/ Portland and Chicago
    DCU 12
    NYR 12
    CHI 10
    TFC 9
    POR 8

    w/ Portland and San Jose
    DCU 14
    NYR 14
    SJE 10
    TFC 10
    POR 3

    w/ Chivas and Chicago
    CHI 14
    DCU 12
    CHV 10
    NYR 9
    TFC 6

    w/ Chivas and San Jose
    CHV 15
    DCU 14
    NYR 11
    TFC 7
    SJE 6

    w/ Chicago and San Jose
    DCU 13
    NYR 12
    CHI 11
    SJE 10
    TFC 7

    Six team ties:

    w/ Portland, Chivas, and Chicago
    DCU 16
    CHI 14
    NYR 13
    CHV 13
    POR 11
    TFC 10

    w/ Portland, Chivas, and San Jose
    DCU 18
    NYR 15
    TFC 11
    ...

    I'm losing my mind at this point (and I'm sure I've made a few mistakes) but I'm telling you: TFC is done. I just can't see how adding bad head-to-head results together will magically result in a different tiebreak TFC wins. Someone else pedantic enough (and with better Excel skills) can take on NER.
     
  18. Green and BLue

    Green and BLue Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC
    Nov 3, 2003
    Republic of Cascadia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #168 Green and BLue, Sep 27, 2011
    Ah, the annual MLS tie-breaker confuse-a-thon!

    MLS tie-breakers are not about ranking all teams involved with the tie-break (although this does inadvertently happen when it's just two teams tied), it's about determining the ONE team who wins the tie-break. It's Charlie Sheen as the Highlander: THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE team who is #WINNING.
     
  19. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #169 Knave, Sep 27, 2011
    Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

    Step away from the computer! :D
     
  20. Allez RSL

    Allez RSL Member+

    Jun 20, 2007
    Home
    #170 Allez RSL, Sep 27, 2011
    I just wanted to say that I love this thread.
     
  21. GalaxyKoa

    GalaxyKoa Member+

    Jul 18, 2007
    North County
    Club:
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #171 GalaxyKoa, Sep 27, 2011
    I'll echo that. You guys are awesome.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #172 Knave, Sep 28, 2011
    ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  30  04  17  10  03  61  2.03  69  73  13  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
02  SEA  30  04  15  09  06  54  1.80  61  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
03  RSL  30  04  15  06  09  51  1.70  58  63  03  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
04  FCD  30  04  13  07  10  46  1.53  52  58  --  20  05  --  ----  ----  W
05  SKC  31  03  11  11  09  44  1.42  48  53  --  15  07  --  0.33  0.66  E
06  PHI  29  05  09  13  07  40  1.38  47  55  --  17  11  --  1.00  1.19  E
07  DCU  28  06  09  11  08  38  1.36  46  56  --  18  13  --  1.17  1.33  E
08  COL  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  09  --  1.00  1.32  W
09  HOU  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  09  --  1.00  1.32  E
10  CMB  31  03  11  08  12  41  1.32  45  50  --  12  10  --  1.33  1.66  E
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  NYR  30  04  08  15  07  39  1.30  44  51  --  13  12  --  1.50  1.74  E
12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  11  14  01  2.00  2.24  W
13  CHI  30  04  07  15  08  36  1.20  41  48  --  10  15  02  2.25  2.49  E
14  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  06  16  03  ----  ----  W
15  SJE  30  04  06  13  11  31  1.03  35  43  --  05  20  07  ----  ----  W
16  TFC  31  03  06  12  13  30  0.97  33  39  --  01  21  08  ----  ----  E
17  NER  30  04  05  12  13  27  0.90  31  39  --  01  24  11  ----  ----  E
[COLOR="Gray"]18  VAN  29  05  04  10  15  22  0.76  26  37  --  --  --  16  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]

Current AD-Baseline: 46

Down 1 since last update.
Set by CMB’s 45 point, 1.32 PPG pace. [/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]

- Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.
- Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
- Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
- Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]
    Notes

    What a difference one game makes! Last time we saw CMB they were sitting at 6th place. Today they've fallen to 10th: a massive loss for a massive team. That's what it's like in a tight playoff race.

    SKC's 44 points, which leads the East, is probably only a point away from guaranteeing a post-season berth.

    Meanwhile, what slim chance RSL had of catching LAG to win the SS is gone. Another LAG win, and RSL will be eliminated from the race.

    Finally, no doubt the CHI faithful will be hearing about how their team's recent run of form has put them into playoff contention. Nonsense. CHI was so far gone before they got onto this streak that two or three wins are not going to make a big difference. After their win today CHI's HD# improved only by a puny 0.15 PPG. It now stands at 2.25 PPG -- a still very steep mountain.

    So, yes, CHI has won its last 3 games. But as I said in the last update, that's just not enough. CHI has 4 games left. It likely needs to win 3 of them. If CHI wins another 2 in a row, I might start to take them seriously. Until then, nope.
     
  23. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    #173 AndyMead, Sep 29, 2011
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    Has DC had some games rescheduled? While the games in hand a nice thing to have, if you've got to spend them at a grueling pace, that takes some of the shine off. Normally you don't see this kind of difference in games remaining this close to the end of the season.
     
  24. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #174 Sachsen, Sep 29, 2011
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    I'm confused.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    #175 Knave, Sep 29, 2011
    Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

    So was I. I was looking at the old table when I wrote that. Corrected. :D

    (I knew something didn't seem right!)
    The POR game was rescheduled.
     
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