Is this thing on? It’s on? We’re going live! Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] 01 LAG 26 08 14 09 03 51 1.96 67 75 25 44 06 -- -.75 -.76 W 02 SEA 26 08 12 09 05 45 1.73 59 69 19 38 12 00† 0.00 -.01 W 03 FCD 26 08 12 07 07 43 1.65 56 67 17 36 14 02 0.25 0.24 W 04 CMB 25 09 11 07 07 40 1.60 54 67 17 36 17 05 0.56 0.55 E 05 RSL 23 11 10 06 07 36 1.57 53 69 19 38 21 09 0.82 0.81 W 06 COL 27 07 10 11 06 41 1.52 52 62 12 31 16 04 0.57 0.56 W 07 SKC 25 09 09 09 07 36 1.44 49 63 13 32 21 09 1.00 0.99 E 08 PHI 24 10 08 10 06 34 1.42 48 64 14 33 23 11 1.10 1.09 E 09 HOU 26 08 08 11 07 35 1.35 46 59 09 28 22 10 1.25 1.24 E 10 DCU 24 10 07 10 07 31 1.29 44 61 11 30 26 14 1.40 1.39 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 26 08 06 14 06 32 1.23 42 56 06 25 25 13 1.63 1.61 E 12 POR 26 08 09 05 12 32 1.23 42 56 06 25 25 13 1.63 1.61 W 13 CHV 26 08 07 10 09 31 1.19 41 55 05 24 26 14 1.75 1.74 W 14 SJE 25 09 05 10 10 25 1.00 34 52 02 21 32 20 2.22 2.21 W 15 CHI 25 09 03 15 07 24 0.96 33 51 01 20 33 21 2.33 2.32 E 16 NER 26 08 04 11 11 23 0.88 30 47 -- 16 34 22 2.75 2.74 E 17 TFC 27 07 04 11 12 23 0.85 29 44 -- 13 34 22‡ 3.14 3.13 E 18 VAN 25 09 03 09 13 18 0.72 24 45 -- 14 39 27 3.00 2.99 W Current AD-Baseline: 45^[/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = Full explanation below AD# = Actual Despair Number = Full explanation below - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.* - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds. - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon. - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B] Asterisks * In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother. ‡ TFC’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# is impossible to attain. † SEA can no longer win the Spoon. ^ Set by DCU’s current 44 point (1.29 PPG) pace. Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 LAG 26 51 13 13 08 05 00 06 04 03 -01 02 SEA 26 45 12 14 06 04 02 06 05 03 -05 03 FCD 26 43 14 12 08 03 03 04 04 04 -11 04 CMB 25 40 13 12 08 04 01 03 03 06 -11 05 RSL 23 36 13 10 08 03 02 02 03 05 -13 06 COL 27 41 14 13 05 07 02 05 04 04 -14 07 SKC 25 36 11 14 06 04 01 03 05 06 -11 08 PHI 24 34 12 12 05 06 01 03 04 05 -14 09 HOU 26 35 14 12 08 03 03 00 08 04 -19 10 DCU 24 31 12 12 03 06 03 04 04 04 -17 11 NYR 26 32 12 14 05 05 02 01 09 04 -18 12 POR 26 32 14 12 08 02 04 01 03 08 -22 13 CHV 26 31 12 14 04 04 04 03 06 05 -19 14 SJE 25 25 14 11 03 07 04 02 03 06 -28 15 CHI 25 24 12 13 02 08 02 01 07 05 -25 16 NER 26 23 13 13 03 06 04 01 05 07 -29 17 TFC 27 23 13 14 04 05 04 00 06 08 -30 18 VAN 25 18 11 14 03 05 03 00 04 10 -29 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B] Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HPPG APPG[/U] 01 LAG 2.23 01 LAG 1.69 02 CMB 2.15 02 SEA 1.64 03 RSL 2.08 03 COL 1.46 04 SKC 2.00 04 FCD 1.33 05 FCD 1.93 05 DCU 1.33 06 HOU 1.93 06 PHI 1.08 07 POR 1.86 07 CHV 1.07 08 SEA 1.83 08 CMB 1.00 09 PHI 1.75 09 SKC 1.00 10 NYR 1.67 10 RSL 0.90 11 COL 1.57 11 NYR 0.86 12 CHV 1.33 12 SJE 0.82 13 TFC 1.31 13 CHI 0.77 14 VAN 1.27 14 HOU 0.67 15 DCU 1.25 15 NER 0.62 16 CHI 1.17 16 POR 0.50 17 NER 1.15 17 TFC 0.43 18 SJE 1.14 18 VAN 0.29[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U] WK24 WK25 WK26 WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30 WK31 WK32[/U] CHI: COL ---- @SJE CHV NER @RSL ---- FCD CMB ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- @HOU ---- @DCU ---- CMB: @SEA ---- TFC HOU LAG @SKC ---- @NER @CHI ---- ---- ---- @PHI ---- DCU ---- ---- ---- COL: @CHI ---- @LAG @TFC SJE FCD ---- RSL @VAN CHV: RSL ---- DCU @CHI @DCU PHI ---- @LAG SEA ---- ---- ---- ---- TFC ---- ---- ---- ---- DCU: POR ---- @CHV @SEA CHV @PHI ---- @VAN SKC ---- ---- ---- ---- RSL @CMB ---- CHI ---- FCD: @SKC ---- @NER NYR HOU @COL ---- @CHI @SJE ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- VAN ---- HOU: @VAN ---- @SKC @CMB @FCD CHI ---- @POR LAG ---- ---- ---- SJE ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- LAG: @NYR ---- @SKC VAN @CMB RSL ---- CHV @HOU ---- ---- COL ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- NER: @PHI ---- FCD @POR @CHI SEA SJE CMB @TFC NYR: LAG ---- VAN @FCD RSL @TFC ---- @SKC PHI ---- ---- ---- ---- POR ---- ---- ---- ---- PHI: NER @RSL POR CMB @SKC DCU @SEA TFC @NYR ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- @CHV ---- ---- ---- POR: @DCU ---- @PHI NER SJE @VAN ---- HOU @RSL ---- ---- ---- ---- @NYR ---- ---- ---- ---- RSL: @CHV PHI @SEA SKC @NYR CHI @VAN @COL POR ---- ---- ---- ---- @DCU @LAG ---- ---- ---- SEA: CMB ---- RSL DCU @VAN @NER PHI SJE @CHV SJE: @TFC ---- CHI @HOU @POR SKC @NER @SEA FCD ---- ---- ---- ---- @COL ---- ---- ---- ---- SKC: FCD ---- LAG @RSL PHI CMB ---- NYR @DCU ---- ---- HOU ---- ---- @SJE ---- ---- ---- TFC: SJE ---- @CMB COL @CHV NYR ---- @PHI NER VAN: HOU ---- @NYR @LAG SEA POR RSL DCU COL ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- @FCD ---- (Sorry about the scroll. A bigger league means a bigger schedule.)[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U] (Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance) 01 HOU: 1.56 02 LAG: 1.43 03 SJE: 1.42 04 VAN: 1.37 05 NER: 1.36 06 CMB: 1.34 07 CHI: 1.32 08 RSL: 1.32 09 CHV: 1.31 10 COL: 1.29 11 TFC: 1.28 12 PHI: 1.28 13 POR: 1.26 14 DCU: 1.26 15 SKC: 1.23 16 NYR: 1.21 17 SEA: 1.11 18 FCD: 1.11[/B] Code: [B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U] [URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/soccer.htm"]Sagarin's MLS Ratings[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL] [URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL] [URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/2010-playoff-standings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL] [URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] Please suggest others.[/B] The Despair Numbers There are some changes from last year. Some of this I can justify, some of this is just gut feeling. Here’s the back story for those who don’t know. Because DCU was so full of despair last year, I developed a measure of that despair early in the season to gauge just how screwed my team was. I called this number the Despair Number (clever, eh!). The Despair Numbers are an estimate of the pace a team would require for the remainder of their season to end the season as a serious playoff contender. There are two variants: the Historical Despair number (HD#) and the Actual Despair Number (AD#). The HD# was based on the anecdotal observation, noticed by many, that in the 30 game season we had in MLS for quite a while until this year, the lower minimum for playoff viability has been about 40 points. That’s not to say you’re in with 40 points, only that 40 points should put you within historical spitting distance of the playoffs. A 40 point team in a 30 game season is looking at 1.33 PPG. But this year we’ve got a 34 game season and MLS (in their finite wisdom) decided to allow 10 teams into the playoffs. So does that mean the old 1.33 PPG standard is no longer valid? Does it have to be lower to accommodate the extra teams? Some think so. Setting the Table has set the playoff bar at 1.20PPG this year because in the past that’s about where the 10th place team finished the season. I disagree and the basis for my disagreement is the league’s relative disparity compared to some years in the recent past. We began to see this last year. At the end of the 2010 season the top half of the table was just a whole lot better than the bottom half of the table. Last year’s 8th place team was looking at 1.53PPG at the end of the year – a massive 0.23 PPG higher than the 9th place team. In terms of disparity, this year is looking an awful lot like last year. (I said a lot about this last year, and no doubt I’ll say more about it this year.) Maybe we won’t have quite the same kind of gap (some of that is just random variation), but I do believe we’ll still see a top half of the table that has its act basically together, and a bottom half that really doesn’t (in essence a bimodal rather than normal distribution – but that’ll never really show up in the stats given that there are only 18 teams). In this year’s 34 game season, even factoring in the two extra spots, I’m thinking it’s going to take about 45 points to make it into the playoffs. That’s again just about 1.33 PPG or 45 PTS over a 34 game season. Hence the formula for the HD#: HD# = (45 points - Actual Points) / Games Remaining The HD# means: a team must maintain a “#.##” PPG pace for the remainder of the season to end the season at the 1.33 PPG threshold. The HD# is ultimately anecdotal (and worse: a bit of a gut estimate) and should be treated as such. It has discussion value. It may perhaps ultimately have some predictive value (that would be spiffy). But it’s something you can argue about, especially this year with all the changes in the league. I’m going with 1.33 PPG because looking at the changes and the numbers and the league trends, it makes sense to me. But I freely admit the measure is a bit suspect given all that’s changed for 2011. One thing is, however, certain: the HD# does not reflect the actual performance of the 10th place team. That’s why I also track a second Despair Number that I call the Actual Despair Number (AD#). It’s calculated like this: AD# = ([(Current 10th Place Points Per Game * 34) + 1] - Actual Points) / Games Remaining This number reflects the actual performance of the 10th place team. Rank the teams by points per game, project the 10th place team's points per game over a 34 game season, add 1 (because you need to beat that team), subtract the team’s actual points, divide by the games remaining. The AD# means: a team must maintain a “#.##” PPG pace for the remainder of the season to outpace and thus beat the current 10th place team's actual pace. Why should you care about these numbers? Because they say something about just how screwed and unscrewed your team actually is. (On reflection, I don’t think unscrewed means the opposite of screwed in all contexts. English! It be funny like that.) Briefly: - If a team’s actual PPG is greater than its Despair Numbers, the team is doing just fine. - If a team’s actual PPG is in the same range as its Despair Numbers, the team is still in the playoff hunt. - If a team’s actual PPG is significantly less than its Despair Numbers, then the team is on its way to being toast. - If a team’s Despair Numbers are over 2.00 PPG, then its becoming burnt toast. - If a team’s Despair Numbers are over 3.00 PPG, then it’s time for that team’s supporters to start thinking about all the glories that next season might bring, but probably won’t. (Sorry TFC!) Which of the two despair measures is most important? I used to think the HD# was the more compelling measure because it tended to reflect a lower minimum while the AD# in practice tended to reflect an upper ceiling. But this year, I don’t know. Indeed, for all I know right now, my HD# baseline is totally wrong. So I’ll be watching both numbers in this thread. But I will say this one thing: I’ve been watching these numbers all season and the HD# and the AD# have been trending fairly closely so far. This, I believe, lends some small bit of support for my prediction that this year the lower minimum for playoff entrance will be about 1.33 PPG. Finally, I’m keeping the Despair Numbers as PPG this year because most people seem to prefer it this way, and because I always seem to need to economize space in the table as the season goes on. Notes on The Playoff Race In the past I’ve started this thread later in the season because there’s usually nothing too much to talk about until mid-September. But teams are just withering out there. Already TFC and VAN are effectively out of the playoff race. When your Despair Numbers are at 3.00 PPG or above, then you can’t lose any points the rest of the season and hope to compete for a playoff spot. Both TFC and VAN have despair numbers at 3.00 PPG or above. Then you’ve got SJE, CHI and NER with despair numbers in the 2.00 PPG range. The best team in the league, LAG, is only averaging 1.96 PPG. To compete for a playoff spot, SJE, CHI and NER have to outperform LAG’s performance thus far for the remainder of the season. How likely is that? So here we are in late August and I’m thinking 5 teams have already been effectively eliminated from playoff contention. Looking forward, if MLS had kept the playoffs at 8 teams, we might again be looking at a real stinker of a playoff race, just like last year. The cause, again, is the aforementioned team disparity. The 1-8th place teams can, at this point, basically stumble their way into the playoffs: they’re all averaging well above 1.00 PPG and all any of them really need to make the playoffs is (likely) around 1.00 PPG. (LAG could lose the rest of its games and would still be virtually guaranteed a playoff spot.) HOU might yet be able to break into the 1-8th place pack (their Despair Numbers are both lower than their actual PPG thus far), but other than them, there aren’t any other teams that appear able to break into the top 8 (or for that matter into their respective conference top threes). That tells me that if not for the 2 extra playoff spots this year, we might not have much of a playoff race at all. Bits of Tid Hey NER, TFC and VAN! I've got bad news for you. All three of you have already been eliminated from Shield contention. DCU ended last season as the only team in the league with a worse home than away record. This year the only team in the league with a worse home than away record is, again, DCU. (It’s been worse pretty much all season.) RFK ain’t what it used to be. NYR! Ahaha! Level on PTS and PPG with POR. But there is hope: 3rd easiest schedule in the league. If there’s any hope for topping LAG in the Shield race, it comes from the easy schedules of FCD and SEA (and LAG’s quite difficult schedule). HOU is well positioned for a playoff run, but they have the most difficult schedule in the league as a headwind. There are several really dominant home teams this year. Stuff & Crap Errors happen. Alert me to them in this thread and I’ll correct them ASAP. Errors particularly happen early on in this thread before I remember how I did all this stuff in the past. Full updates once a week, mini-updates (the main table) as warranted. I may put together a quick primer on formatting tables. People seem to be having trouble with that, but once you know a few tricks, they're easy. I always say future posts in this thread won't be as long as the first one, but inevitably one is.
I haven't read or perused the whole thing but interesting that Seattle and FCD are tied for the weakest remaining strength of schedule with 1.11, while LAG is second highest with 1.43. The Supporters Shield may very well still be in play as it turns out. Also interesting that Houston has the highest remaining strength of schedule by a longshot at 1.56. They're going to have play well coming in if they are to make the playoffs. As always, incredible work Knave. I annually love this thread.
I admit I didn't read the whole thing word for word, but your remaining schedule table is missing three games, home to RSL, at Crew, home to Fire. Why is that? Gave me a mini heart attack when I thought we only had seven games left.
Shouldn't this formula have "Current 10th Place Points Per Game" rather than "8th Place"? Figured I'd point that out.
Carryover from last year. Thought I had them all. Fixed. The DCU schedule has two lines. Look down. The games are there.
I'd love to believe that KC has one of the easiest remaining schedules and a shot at first in the east (well, hell, we do have a pretty good shot), but man, despite excellent home form, these next few home games are going to be far from easy. That aside, great stuff, appreciate it.
There is one little * I'd like to throw in there though. We have L.A. at home the last week of the season. I expect, by that time they'll have already clinched the Supporter's Shield (or at least a high playoff spot) and will perhaps rest a lot of key starters, while I expect us to be qualified for the playoffs, or very close where even if we lost, perhaps other teams would have to win. In that sense, I think the difficulty of schedule statistic is a little skewed.
I have looked forward to this thread. Now, if only the Union can ride out the storm to the end of the season... Thanks for all your work, Knave. (and have some rep)
Unfortunately, even if you take the Galaxy game out of the equation our seven opponents before the Galaxy game have a PPG average of 1.54. That's still the toughest in the league. There is a very good chance that we'll need the 3 points against LAG. Might be easier to get them if LA is resting players but we'll probably still need them unless we get a lot better on the road than we've been.
Oh, I left that one out. Calculated thusly: WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1 It is the number of PTS a team needs to be ineligible for the WS.
Then there's also the automatic spots / wild-card issue. Western Conference: Currently LAG, SEA, and FCD. Given the easy schedule FCD and SEA have remaining, plus LAG's current lead, plus the fact that the majority of RSL's remaining schedule is on the road, I think there's a good shot that those three slots aren't going to change. COL is definitely on the outside looking in, and given their defensive woes and CCL games, I think they're going to have to settle for one of the wild-card slots. RSL does have the benefit of no CCL games, while all the other teams are in the CCL. Eastern Conference: Currently CMB, SKC, and PHI. Of those, I'd say CMB and SKC are pretty solid picks. CMB has been playing well, and SKC, though they still have to play a lot of the top-ranking teams, are mostly at home where they've been doing very well. As for the final slot, that's a toss-up between PHI, HOU, DC, and even NY. Wildcards: COL and RSL are pretty solidly in these spots, and if one of them manages to surpass one of FCD / SEA / LAG, that team will drop down into that spot. It would require a huge change in form from either of those teams to drop out. Then you have PHI / HOU / DC / NY / CUSA / POR fighting for 1 EC spot + 2 wildcard slots. That's going to be fun to watch.
I was surprised and a bit skeptical myself, but it comes down to the fact that SKC has 6 of 9 remaining games at home, and 2 of the 3 away games are against the worst (SJE) and 4th-worst (DCU) teams at home so far this season. Although the next 6 straight games are all against opponents that are currently in playoff position, FCD will likely rest starters between CCL and USOC matches, LAG will be without Donovan and Keane due to international duty, and HOU is winless on the road. The PHL and CLB games--just 5 days apart--will obviously be critical for final positioning in the Eastern Conference.
I think knave's prediction of a 1.33 ppg cutoff seems about right. This has been the case since 2005, with last year seeing a real spike to 1.53. With more teams joining the league, the cutoff point is a bit higher than the early years. My feeling was that it would have increased this year as well, though it appears the 2 extra playoff spots have negated the expansion in Portland and Vancouver. If we just look at the #8 spot, the cutoff ppg is 1.42 as of now. Should be interesting to see where it ends up.
... Hurricane Edition ... Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] 01 LAG 26 08 14 09 03 51 1.96 67 75 25 44 06 -- -.75 -.76 W 02 SEA 27 07 13 09 05 48 1.78 60 69 19 38 09 -- -.43 -.44 W 03 FCD 27 07 13 07 07 46 1.70 58 67 17 36 11 -- -.14 -.15 W 04 RSL 24 10 11 06 07 39 1.63 55 69 19 38 18 04 0.60 0.59 W 05 CMB 26 08 11 07 08 40 1.54 52 64 14 33 17 03 0.63 0.61 E 06 COL 28 06 10 11 07 41 1.46 50 59 09 28 16 02 0.67 0.65 W 07 PHI 24 10 08 10 06 34 1.42 48 64 14 33 23 09 1.10 1.09 E 08 SKC 26 08 09 09 08 36 1.38 47 60 10 29 21 07 1.13 1.11 E 09 HOU 27 07 08 11 08 35 1.30 44 56 06 25 22 08 1.43 1.42 E 10 DCU 24 10 07 10 07 31 1.29 44 61 11 30 26 12 1.40 1.39 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 26 08 06 14 06 32 1.23 42 56 06 25 25 11 1.63 1.61 E 12 POR 26 08 09 05 12 32 1.23 42 56 06 25 25 11 1.63 1.61 W 13 CHV 27 07 07 10 10 31 1.15 39 52 02 21 26 12 2.00 1.99 W 14 CHI 26 08 04 15 07 27 1.04 35 51 01 20 30 16 2.25 2.24 E 15 SJE 26 08 05 11 10 26 1.00 34 50 -- 19 31 17 2.38 2.36 W 16 NER 26 08 04 11 11 23 0.88 30 47 -- 16 34 20 2.75 2.74 E 17 TFC 28 06 04 12 12 24 0.86 29 42 -- 11 33 19‡ 3.50 3.49 E 18 VAN 26 08 04 09 13 21 0.81 27 45 -- 14 36 22 3.00 2.99 W Current AD-Baseline: 45^[/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.* - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds. - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon. - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B] Asterisks * In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother. ‡ TFC’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# is impossible to attain. ^ Set by DCU’s current 44 point (1.29 PPG) pace. Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 LAG 26 51 13 13 08 05 00 06 04 03 -01 02 SEA 27 48 13 14 07 04 02 06 05 03 -05 03 FCD 27 46 14 13 08 03 03 05 04 04 -09 04 RSL 24 39 13 11 08 03 02 03 03 05 -11 05 CMB 26 40 13 13 08 04 01 03 03 07 -12 06 PHI 24 34 12 12 05 06 01 03 04 05 -14 07 SKC 26 36 12 14 06 04 02 03 05 06 -14 08 COL 28 41 14 14 05 07 02 05 04 05 -15 09 DCU 24 31 12 12 03 06 03 04 04 04 -17 10 NYR 26 32 12 14 05 05 02 01 09 04 -18 11 HOU 27 35 14 13 08 03 03 00 08 05 -20 12 POR 26 32 14 12 08 02 04 01 03 08 -22 13 CHV 27 31 13 14 04 04 05 03 06 05 -22 14 CHI 26 27 13 13 03 08 02 01 07 05 -25 15 SJE 26 26 14 12 03 07 04 02 04 06 -28 16 NER 26 23 13 13 03 06 04 01 05 07 -29 17 VAN 26 21 12 14 04 05 03 00 04 10 -29 18 TFC 28 24 14 14 04 06 04 00 06 08 -32 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B] Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HPPG APPG[/U] 01 LAG 2.23 01 LAG 1.69 02 CMB 2.15 02 SEA 1.64 03 RSL 2.08 03 FCD 1.46 04 FCD 1.93 04 COL 1.36 05 HOU 1.93 05 DCU 1.33 06 SEA 1.92 06 RSL 1.09 07 POR 1.86 07 PHI 1.08 08 SKC 1.83 08 CHV 1.07 09 PHI 1.75 09 SKC 1.00 10 NYR 1.67 10 CMB 0.92 11 COL 1.57 11 NYR 0.86 12 VAN 1.42 12 SJE 0.83 13 CHI 1.31 13 CHI 0.77 14 TFC 1.29 14 HOU 0.62 15 DCU 1.25 15 NER 0.62 16 CHV 1.23 16 POR 0.50 17 NER 1.15 17 TFC 0.43 18 SJE 1.14 18 VAN 0.29[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U] TBA WK25 WK26 WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30 WK31 WK32[/U] CHI: ---- ---- @SJE CHV NER @RSL ---- FCD CMB ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- @HOU ---- @DCU ---- CMB: ---- ---- TFC HOU LAG @SKC ---- @NER @CHI ---- ---- ---- @PHI ---- DCU ---- ---- ---- COL: ---- ---- @LAG @TFC SJE FCD ---- RSL @VAN CHV: ---- ---- DCU @CHI @DCU PHI ---- @LAG SEA ---- ---- ---- ---- TFC ---- ---- ---- ---- DCU: POR ---- @CHV @SEA CHV @PHI ---- @VAN SKC ---- ---- ---- ---- RSL @CMB ---- CHI ---- FCD: ---- ---- @NER NYR HOU @COL ---- @CHI @SJE ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- VAN ---- HOU: ---- ---- @SKC @CMB @FCD CHI ---- @POR LAG ---- ---- ---- SJE ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- LAG: ---- ---- @SKC VAN @CMB RSL @NYR CHV @HOU ---- ---- COL ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- NER: ---- ---- @PHI @POR @CHI SEA SJE CMB @TFC ---- ---- FCD ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- NYR: ---- ---- VAN @FCD RSL @TFC LAG @SKC PHI ---- ---- ---- ---- POR ---- ---- ---- ---- PHI: ---- @RSL NER CMB @SKC DCU @SEA TFC @NYR ---- ---- POR ---- ---- @CHV ---- ---- ---- POR: @DCU ---- @PHI NER SJE @VAN ---- HOU @RSL ---- ---- ---- ---- @NYR ---- ---- ---- ---- RSL: ---- PHI @SEA SKC @NYR CHI @VAN @COL POR ---- ---- ---- ---- @DCU @LAG ---- ---- ---- SEA: ---- ---- RSL DCU @VAN @NER PHI SJE @CHV SJE: ---- ---- CHI @HOU @POR SKC @NER @SEA FCD ---- ---- ---- ---- @COL ---- ---- ---- ---- SKC: ---- ---- LAG @RSL PHI CMB ---- NYR @DCU ---- ---- HOU ---- ---- @SJE ---- ---- ---- TFC: ---- ---- @CMB COL @CHV NYR ---- @PHI NER VAN: ---- ---- @NYR @LAG SEA POR RSL DCU COL ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- @FCD ----[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U] (Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance) 01 HOU: 1.58 02 VAN: 1.47 03 SJE: 1.46 04 LAG: 1.42 05 COL: 1.39 06 NER: 1.38 07 RSL: 1.34 08 TFC: 1.33 09 CHV: 1.33 10 CHI: 1.31 11 DCU: 1.29 12 POR: 1.28 13 CMB: 1.26 14 PHI: 1.25 15 NYR: 1.21 16 SKC: 1.21 17 SEA: 1.16 18 FCD: 0.99[/B] Code: [B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U] [URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/soccer.htm"]Sagarin's MLS Ratings[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL] [URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL] [URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/2010-playoff-standings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL] [URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL] [URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] Please suggest others.[/B] Notes This should have been a more substantial week for defining the table, but because a few key games were rescheduled, there's not a whole lot of movement. RSL's win was a big deal, but it would count for more if LAG, SEA and FCD weren't 1-3 in the West. CMB's loss should also be a big deal, but its possible effects are a bit masked because so many other teams in the East were idle or lost themselves -- big opportunity lost, HOU and SKC. If there was any real movement, it was the downward movement of CHV and SJE. Every loss (or even draw) with these teams means the hill they have to climb starts looking more and more like a mountain. With their losses, CHV's despair numbers have now just edged into the 2.00 PPG range, and SJE's are rising toward the insurmountable. CHI won, but they're in a position where only win after win after win can dramatically improve their situation. Decreasing their despair numbers by 0.08 PPG is something, but not much. And then you get to the teams who have passed the point of no return. VAN won their game, but because they have to win every game from here on out to have even the slightest chance at the playoffs, they have not actually improved their situation, only maintained it. Meanwhile, TFC also won. But because they're well over the edge of no return, their despair numbers actually got worse! The win cannot make up for the fact that they no longer have enough games left on their schedule to make any sort of remotely credible playoff run. Stuff I'll post an updated schedule once the DCU-POR game is scheduled. And when I do that I'll probably moved the Monday, September 5 LAG@SKC game to WK25 since that's how most people seem to be thinking about it. I've started eliminating the nonsense, impossible numbers. Hence the absence of a WS# for a few top teams, and the absence of a SE# for some bottom teams: the teams at the top can no longer win the WS, the teams at the bottom can no longer win the SS. At some point I'm sure to omit the nonsense despair numbers: TFC can't get more than 3.00 PPG, LAG can't get negative PPG. (But it certainly would be awesome if LAG could get negative PPG!)
Re: ... Hurricane Edition ... TFC drew!!!! The AR called Plata offside when he wasn't!!!! Carry on with otherwise superb work.
Re: ... Hurricane Edition ... Oh, yeah ... And San Jose didn't lose, they drew. (Not that it matters to their situation. For them a draw is but a slower form of losing.) I know I had it in my head that not even a win could have helped TFC. Must have gotten a bit carried away with that line of thinking. Not the first mistake on my part. Not the last either.