It seems like South Africa was so recent but we're already almost 1/4 of the way through the next cycle. Yanks-Abroad released their first take as to who will make the trip in 2014 A few remarks on some players: Bradley - "Moving to Villa was the dumbest USMNT move since Gooch to Newcastle" Holden - "Hopefully can fit Brazil into his injury schedule" Goodson - "Very underrated player that will start all during qualifying" Gooch - "Bob Bradley is jumping the shark here. Horrible World Cup, Milan doesn't want him and Twente gave up after a few games. Gooch is done." Altidore - "Jozy is slowly going the way of Freddy Adu" Lichaj - "Will take over left back" Looking at their list it appears they may be closer than some of the far off predictions they've made in years past. Obviously, three years is still a long time...
Based on the current talent pool, that's probably accurate for the most part. Injuries and new, upcoming players always change things.
I went back and checked, YA's first 23 tickets projection for 2010 was pretty good. They got 14 out of 23 right.
For what its worth, here is the link to their first 23 tickets to South Africa: http://www.yanks-abroad.com/get.php?mode=content&id=1963 My favorite quote: Heath Pearce - D/M, Chivas USA (USA) "Come 2010, there won't be any left back concerns."
OTHER BUBBLE BATTLERS Josmer Altidore, David Arvizu, Nikolas Besagno, Adin Brown, Edson Buddle, Jose Burciarga Jr., Jon Busch, Danny Califf, Joe Cannon, Brad Davis, Alecko Eskandarian, Hunter Freeman, Rodrigo Hidalgo, Nate Jaqua, Will John, Quavas Kirk, Sacha Kljestan, Kyle Martino, Pablo Mastroeni, Mike Magee, Kyle Nakazawa, Pat Noonan, John O'Brien, Robbie Russell, Ofori Sarkodie, Matt Reis, Frankie Simek, Danny Szetela, Quentin Westberg, Tim Ward, Zak Whitbread, David Yelldell, Joe Zewe, Preston Zimmerman Interesting list of outsiders from four years ago. Two players (Altidore, Buddle) made it off this list. And several players not mentioned at all (Findley, Gomez, Torres, Bornstein) made the 2010 team. Bedoya is another player who came out of nowhere and almost made the team. So maybe there are 5-7 players who at this point are long shots or maybe not even known by most of us who are going to make the 2014 team. Think about that.
Too early. Way too many factors to consider, including the fact that many players blossom during World Cup Qualifying. Questions include: Will Altidore get his groove back? Does Spector regain his form? Will Davies continue his improvement and contend for a starting position? Can Dempsey's body continue to handle the beating its been taking? We might find that a sizable portion of our starters today have been replaced. Four years is an eternity in soccer.
That's why this whole thing is interesting. If someone handed me a sheet with the 2014 roster today I could go away and come back in three years...what fun would that be?
My memory isn't great, but what was Freddy Adu doing in July of 2006 to warrant him being labeled "nearly a lock"?
Fwds (5): Altidore, Bunbury, Agudelo, Wood, Davies Mids(8): Donovan, Holden, Dempsey, Jones, Bradley, Bedoya, Diskerud, Spector Defense(7): Chandler, Whitbread, Ream, Onyewu, Lichaj, Gonzo, Goodson GK(3): Howard, Guzan, Yelldell? Thinking about this, I have no idea, I really have no idea what the future holds lol. Maybe Mixx and Bedoya become stars overseas? What if Robbie Rodgers and Bunbury go overseas and are successful? Gyau? Gatt? Doyle? Boss? Cunningham? Adu? Ahh i hate this.
A nice job on their part. I would think their task this time around is doubly hard, because of all the young dual nationals on the outskirts of the pool. If Jann George is suddenly scoring goals in the Bundesliga next year, he surges out of the ether onto the lock or near lock list. Looking at the list, it looks like there are not any of them unless they are committed already to the program. Those with only eligibility, Dan Williams, for instance, are omitted. Right now, I am most concerned about our forwards. Much more so than left back, actually. I'm not sure we've ever been weaker on top in the WC era than right now. That's where the most flux is possible, to my mind. I think 3 of 5 is the best that they can hope for. Either that, or that group starts going on an unforeseen goal-scoring spree at their clubs.
Some names were easier to predict because they were established US leaders and going into the prime of their careers. Now, you have a double whammy. The established leaders are going to be over 30 and the young'un's are still largely unproven. Provided full health - Howard, Chandler, Edu, Holden, Altidore and Bradley are in and will be in or near their primes regardless of form. Dempsey and Donovan will probably be in but over 30 and may or may not be starting, depending upon other developments. Spector and Feilhaber may not be included on the quality of play. Cherundolo, Beasley, Bocanegra, Onyewu, Jones, Clark, Buddle, Gomez, Demerit will be candidates based on experience but age may be catching up to them. Ream, Gonzalez, Bunbury, Agudelo, Boss, Lichaj, Bedoya, et al. have done next to nothing as of today and will be expected to improve enough to be included in the squad but a 50% attrition rate there is to be expected. This smacks pretty hard of 2006.
Stepovers? Man U trial before the season? ********** It's fascinating to look at the "4 years later" articles and posts. NOBODY gets things correct. There are myriad factors: injuries, players are more potential than payoff, young players progress quickly, and we might lack depth in certain areas. This is true even among the "sure things". The top 2 categories of Pack Your Bags and Nearly a Lock should have been the core of the team. And yet, Convey looks like an egregious miss, Gibbs never made an impression in the cycle (injuries), and Pearce, Adu, and Beasley were on the bubble at the end. Look for things to be even crazier this cycle. We have more MLS teams than ever, better youth development than last cycle, better incentives for MLS teams to promote youth players, and more opportunities for US players abroad. Look how quickly Holden and Edu progressed last cycle - somebody could do the same this cycle (and indeed, it looks like Chandler is on his way.) It's telling that there are 8 guys in the top 2 categories for the Brazil article. And even in that group, we have 4 guys that are starters in a top 4 league. With so many guys playing at a decent level, it will take more to be a lock for 2014.
Encouraging people to project his youth success to senior success. And making the occasional Youtube-worthy move. YA's track record isn't exactly the best on this stuff. For that matter, almost nobody's is. When it comes to pure guesses, the most reliable (if unsexy) method is to look at guys who have been important, or who's role with the team has been growing, and then look at their age in 2014. If they'll be prime age or near it, they're good odds. (In the way that doubling down when you have 10 and the dealer isn't showing 10 is "good odds." It's still a crap shoot from there. You hope they don't get injured, make a really bad club move, have their game go to hell, etc. And then they could still get overtaken by someone coming out of nowhere...)
In a similar vein, from early June, 2006 (pre-WC Germany) ... https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8634107&postcount=173 I took a pounding - I would be banned from N&A not so long thereafter - but still fond memories.
man, this is really hard because it's simply pure speculation on how i think a player will grow, and if you even guess 50% of the choices than you are nearly psychic. but anyways, i can't resist...please, be kind (i took some WILD guesses): Goalkeepers 1. Tim Howard (35)-lock 2. Brad Guzan (29)-nearly lock 3. Bill Hamid (23)-a lot of work to do, and pure random speculation Contenders-Nick Rimando (34), David Yelldell (32), Matt Pickens (32), Will Hesmer (32), Tally Hall (29), Sean Johnson (25) phased out: Marcus Hahnemann Right Back 1. Timmy Chandler (24)-nearly lock 2. Eric Lichaj (25)-safe bet Contenders-Kevin Alston (26), Sean Franklin (29), Sheannon Williams (24), Jonathan Spector (28) Steve Cherundolo (35), Rich Balchan (25), Kofi Sarkodie (23), Zarek Valentin (22) Center Back 1. Clarence Goodson (32)-safe bet 2. Tim Ream (26)-work to do 3. Zak Whitbread (30)-work to do, needs to stay healthy 4. Anthony Brooks (21)-a lot and a lot of work to do, pure random out of my ass speculation based on never seeing him play but figuring one kid will sneak on. Contenders-Omar Gonzalez (26), George John (27), Chad Marshall (29), Michael Parkhurst (30), Gale Agbossoumonde (20), AJ Soares (25), Eric Brunner (28), Ike Opara (25), Ethan White (23), Perry Kitchen (22), Marvell Wynne (27) Oguchi Onyewu (32), Jay DeMerit (34), Carlos Bocanegra (35) Left Back 1. Brek Shea (24)-a lot of work to do 2. Sean Cunningham (21)-a lot of work to do, pure speculation Contenders-Jonathan Bornstein (29), Heath Pearce (29), Anthony Wallace (24), Zach Loyd (26), Corey Ashe (28), Greg Garza (22) *still going to be our weak point. Center Mid 1. Michael Bradley (26)-lock 2. Jermaine Jones (32)-nearly lock 3. Maurice Edu (27)-nearly lock 4. Sacha Kljestan (29)-a lot of work to do Contenders-Benny Feilhaber (29), Jose Torres (26), Dax McCarty (27), Ricardo Clark (31), Jeff Larentowicz (30), Geoff Cameron (28), Amobi Okugo (23), Kyle Beckerman (32), Fabian Hurzeler (21) Attacking Mid 1. Landon Donovan (32)-lock 2. Stuart Holden (28)-nearly lock (depends on health) 3. Mikkel Diskerud (23)-safe bet/work to do 4. Josh Gatt (22)-a lot of work to do Contenders-Dilly Duka (24), Jorge Flores (24), Chris Pontius (27), Joe Gyau (21), Luis Gil (20), Sebastian Lletget (21), Freddy Adu (25), Robbie Rogers (27), Eddie Gaven (27), Bobby Convey (31), Brad Davis (32) phased out: N/A Forward 1. Clint Dempsey (31)-lock 2. Jozy Altidore (24)-safe bet (losing ground) 3. Teal Bunbury (24)-safe bet 4. Juan Agudelo (21)-safe bet *Surprisingly, we look to have a lot of up and comers coming up...even though sadly, at least half will probably be duds Contenders: Charlie Davies (27), Chris Wondolowski (31), Bobby Wood (21), Conor Doyle (22), Omar Salgado (20), Will Bruin (24), Kenny Cooper (29), Herculez Gomez (32), Edson Buddle (33), Justin Braun (27), Robbie Findley (27), Jack McInerney (21), Adrian Ruelas (23),
I'll play! Here's my 23 man squad with starters in bold: Omar Salgado Juan Agudelo Jozy Altidore Charlie Davies Bobby Wood Lots of wild cards here. Can Jozy recapture his New York form? Can Davies make a full recovery? Will he still have his speed when he's 27? Agudelo seems like the only certainty, which is absurd considering that he has barely played. I'm guessing on Salgado. I have questions about his mobility, but he's 6'4" and active with a willingness to shoot. I included Wood solely on reputation. Mwanga and Bunbury are bubble boys. They both have potential, but neither looks a dominant player in MLS yet. Stuart Holden Sebastian Lletget Clint Dempsey Landon Donovan Freddy Adu Joseph Gyau Michael Bradley Holden and Lletget figure to be our two most complete central midfielders. although Stu needs to stay healthy while Seb needs to get minutes. Bradley is a better defender than Lletget, but I don't think he's nearly as good in possession and distribution. Dempsey and Donovan are tough calls. Both should be on the decline by the time Brazil rolls around, but none of the guys behind them right now seem likely to pass them. Adu is our best creative midfielder (the Feilhaber role) while Gyau is the closest thing we have to a winger. One more body might be needed here for depth. Maybe Edu, Spector, or Duka? Eric Lichaj Gale Agbossoumonde Tim Ream Timmy Chandler Omar Gonzalez Perry Kitchen Clarence Goodson Zach Lloyd Lichaj might not be a natural LB, but he's still better than any of the other candidates. I think Boss has a chance to be a big time player once he gets more games under his belt. He has the potential to play at the highest levels. I'm not sure that Ream is international caliber, but I prefer him to the lumbering Gonzalez. Chandler might be our best young prospect period. He could play in any league in the world. He will be on this squad barring catastrophic injury. It's only a matter of where (he could play RM or RB). Gonzalez gives us a taller option against aerial threats while Goodson provides quality insurance and a veteran presence. I think Kitchen can play RB, CDM, or CB at a decent level. Not sure about Lloyd, but which young American LB is better? Tim Howard Brad Guzan Bill Hamid Timmy could be sliding come 2014. Guzan looks like a serviceable replacement, albeit a clear downgrade. Hamid has the look of a quality player. That's my team for now. Long way to go until 2014. Let's hope Lando and Deuce don't age too poorly, and that some of our young players establish themselves. After watching several of the U20 games I feel good about the odds of Gyau, Lletget, Kitchen, and Boss contributing down the road.
I'll play. And, for the record, here is YA's list: Locks/Pack Your Bags (5). 1. GK Tim Howard (Everton) 2. M Michael Bradley (Aston Villa/Borussia Monchenbladbach) 3. M Stuart Holden (Bolton Wanderers) 4. M/F Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy) 5. M/F Clint Dempsey (Fulham) Nearly a Lock (3). 6. GK Brad Guzan (Aston Villa) 7. M/D Maurice Edu (Glasgow Rangers) 8. M Jermaine Jones (Blackburn Rovers/Schalke 04) Fairly Safe Bet (9). 9. GK David Yelldell (Duisburg, Bundeslga II) 10. D Clarence Goodson (Brondby) 11. D Oguchi Onyewu (FC Twente/AC Milan) 12. D Tim Ream (NY Red Bulls) 13. D/M Timothy Chandler (Nuremberg) 14. F Jozy Altidore (Bursaspor, Turkey/Villarreal) 15. F Charlie Davies (DC United/Sochaux) 16. F Teal Bunbury (Sporting KC) 17. F Juan Agudelo (NY Red Bull) In a Battle (4). 18. D Eric Lichaj, (Aston Villa) 19. M/D Jonathan Spector (West Ham) 20. M Benny Feilhaber (New England) 21. M Alejandro Bedoya (Orebo, Sweden) Work To Do (2). 22. D Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy) 23. M Mikkel Diskerud (Stabek, Norway) ------------------------------ Moving Up: D Zak Whitbread (Norwich City); M/F Joseph Gyau (Hoffenheim); F Bobby Wood (1860 Munich). Moving Down: D Carlos Bocanegra, D Steve Cherundolo, D/M Jonathan Bornstein Other Bubble Battlers: Freddy Adu, Gale Agbossoumonde, Anthony Brooks, Ricardo Clark, Jay DeMerit, Robbie Findley, Sean Johnson, Perry Kitchen, Sacha Kljestan, Chad Marshall, Heath Pearce, Luis Robles, Robbie Rogers, Adrian Ruelas, Jose Francisco Torres, Chris Wondolowski. =============================== GK (3). Howard; Guzan, Yelldell D (5) Goodson, Onyewu, Ream, Lichaj, Gonzalez D/M (3). Edu, Chandler, Spector M (7). Bradley, Holden, Donovan, Jones, Feilhaber, Bedoya, Diskerud M/F (1). Dempsey F (4). Altidore, Davies, Bunbury, Agudelo Nothing really striking, except they think Edu is a M/F. Omissions of Gatt, Hamid, and Buddle a little odd on the bubble battlers list. I don't rate Gonzalez nearly as high. I was going to post my own, my Elven Bravo's list is so good, I figured, why try? So I'll do a shorty: Pack Your Bags (4). Howard, Holden, Donovan, Dempsey Nearly A Lock (4). Chandler, Bradley, Edu, Jones Safe Bet (2). Guzan, Goodson. In a Battle (7). Altidore, Davies, Bunbury, Agudelo, Lichaj, Onyewu, Spector Work To Do (6). Hamid, Whitbread, Shea, Diskerud, Gyau, Adu. By Position: GK (3). Howard, Guzan, Hamid D (4). Goodson, Lichaj, Onyewu, Whitbread D/M (2).Chandler, Shea M/D (2). Edu, Spector M (6). Holden, Donovan, Bradley, Jones, Diskerud, Gyau M/F (2). Dempsey, Adu F (4). Bunbury, Davies; Altidore, Agudelo. Bubbles: GK: Yelldell, Hahnemann, Johnson, Rimando, Cervi, Robles. RB/LB: Cherundolo, Bornstein, Pearce, Wallace, Sarkodie, Alston, Franklin, Balchan, Valentin, Loyd, Wallace, Ashe, Cunningham. CB: Bocangera, DeMerit, Ream, Gonzalez, Marshall, Opara, Agbossoumonde, Parkhurst, Soares, John, Wynne, Kitchen, Cameron. DM/CM: Clark, McCarty, Beckermann, Cameron, Okogu, Larentowicz. CM/AM: Feilahber, Torres, Kljestan, Bedoya, Rogers, Gatt, Duka, Gil, Lletget, Gaven, Convey, Davis, Beasley. F: Buddle, Gomez, Findley, Cooper, Wondolowski, Bruan, Wood, Salgado.
I'm not concerned about forwards this cycle. Concern if it was nextbyear? You bet! But for once we have multiple guys with loads of potential and upside. Last cycle there was Altidore. Davies kind of came out of nowhere in 2009. This cycle it seems as if we don't have all our eggs in one basket. If Agudelo fails, bunberry might work or Davies comes back or Altidore gets his mojo back, etc. Yes it's a concern now but back line is much more concerning as it seems that there is a 10 year age gap between cuurrent starters and potential replacements.
Pretty simple; he was playing for DC United and doing quite well for himself. By '07 he played in 87 games, had a league Championship, and 2 Supporters Shield. Imo he played well enough down the stretch with Aris to merit a selection.
Lock: Donovan Locks based on level of club play and age: Bradley, Edu, Holden, Dempsey, Chandler, Lichaj, Howard, Guzan Age and or injury concerns: Spector, Gooch, Jones, Whitbred
There's an old NFL line, "Potential is what gets a coach fired". Anyhow, a US forward who's actually playing and scoring at the highest level at the moment is Eugene Starikov (made something like the Player of the Week in the RPL for his game vs. Zenit) ... and he made zero Big Soccer's "future" lists.
Surely that's because Russian matches aren't the most widely available over here. I watch a lot of soccer and I hardly ever see any RPL. Out of (our) sight, out of mind. With as thorough as Bob's staff is, though, I bet they've been watching.