USMNT All-Time Record

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by NoSix, Dec 14, 2009.

  1. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    What is the USMNT’s all-time results record?

    Well, you could Google it. Type “United States men’s national soccer team record” in the search box and the first link is to Wikipedia. There you will find a W-L-D record listed (not quite correct, as it turns out) by opponent and decade, with the data source given as RSSSF. Going back to your Google search results, a few links down you will find the excellent American Soccer History Archives with results listed through mid-2008, and a link to the National Soccer Hall of Fame, the official repository of US soccer history, where a few clicks will lead you to the U.S. MNT International Results and Lineups page, updated through July 2005. And of course there are always the ELO ratings USA country results page and the FIFA.com fixtures and results page, too.

    When you start comparing these different sources, you find many discrepancies in the data. Besides the usual typos, omissions, and duplications, probably the single largest source for these discrepancies is the determination of which matches are considered “official” by USSF. By definition, an official match is one between the full national teams of both teams participating in an international match; in practice, a match is official (or not) because the USSF says it is. In theory the Soccer Hall of Fame’s website should be the definitive source, but it also tends to be among the more error prone. By means of rigorous cross-referencing among the various data sources, I believe I have arrived at an accurate tally of the USMNT’s all-time record, including goals for and against, with the added bonus of strength of schedule ratings in the form of opponent ELO ratings and rankings:

    1916-2009:
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40	1650	36
    Home	298	152	76	70	59.5%	488	303	1.64	1.02	1647	41
    Away	178	44	32	102	30.7%	176	335	0.99	1.88	1593	43
    Neutral	61	19	9	33	36.1%	74	116	1.21	1.90	1811	18
    
    where:
    Code:
    MP	matches played
    W	Wins
    D	Draws
    L	Losses
    PPCT	Points percentage = (3*W+D)/(3*MP)
    GF	Goals For
    GA	Goals Against
    GFA	Goals For Average
    GAA	Goals Against Average
    ORAT	Median opponent ELO rating
    ORNK	Median opponent ELO ranking
    
    Note that of the USA’s 537 official matches, 7 have gone to a penalty shoot-out tiebreaker to determine a victor. These 7 matches are counted as draws in the above table. The USA has a record of 4W against 3L in these shoot-outs (trivia question: the three losses came against only two opponents, can you name them?) . If these are recorded instead as wins and losses, then the all-time record would be 219W-110D-208L.

    Over the course of their history, the USA have been a whopping 1.51 goals per match better at home than on the road. More to say about this later. As indicated by the opponent median ranking and rating columns, the reason the performance in matches on neutral fields appears to be almost as bad as in away matches is probably due to the much stronger opponents encountered in the Copa Americas, Confederation Cups, and World Cups that constitute the bulk of the neutral field matches.

    Stay tuned, more to come.
     
    2 people repped this.
  2. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 21, 2002
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So it took until early 2008 to have more wins than losses. If that's not proof of the amazing progress that has been made I don't know what is.
     
  3. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Yes, another milestone to look forward to next year or in 2011 is a return to a positive all-time goal differential, for the first time since 1928!

    The goal differential sank for 60 years to an all-time low of -192 in 1988, and has risen to the current -16 in the past 22 years. In fact, from the following tables you can see that the history of the USMNT really consists of two eras: the first, from 1916-1987, eminently forgettable except for the heroics at the 1930 and 1950 World Cups (and 1934 Qualifying, of course), and the modern era, from 1988 to present. The USA have played at least a dozen matches per year every year since 1988; prior to that they had played less than 10 per year every year except 1973.

    1916-1987:
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	142	36	27	79	31.7%	171	356	1.20	2.51	1586	34
    Home	48	15	15	18	41.7%	66	99	1.38	2.06	1597	37
    Away	76	14	11	51	23.2%	78	204	1.03	2.68	1571	36
    Neutral	18	7	1	10	40.7%	27	53	1.50	2.94	1635	29
    
    1988-2009:
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	395	179	90	126	52.9%	567	398	1.44	1.01	1673	36
    Home	250	137	61	52	62.9%	422	204	1.69	0.82	1656	41
    Away	102	30	21	51	36.3%	98	131	0.96	1.28	1625	49
    Neutral	43	12	8	23	34.1%	47	63	1.09	1.47	1826	15
    
    Record by year:
    Code:
    YEAR	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40	1650	36
    1916	2	1	1	0	66.7%	4	3	2.00	1.50	1549	19
    1924	4	2	0	2	50.0%	5	8	1.25	2.00	1542	33
    1925	2	1	0	1	50.0%	6	2	3.00	1.00	1606	24
    1926	1	1	0	0	100.0%	6	2	6.00	2.00	1585	27
    1928	2	0	1	1	16.7%	5	14	2.50	7.00	1761	15
    1930	4	2	0	2	50.0%	10	10	2.50	2.50	1712	14
    1934	2	1	0	1	50.0%	5	9	2.50	4.50	1742	18
    1937	3	0	0	3	0.0%	6	19	2.00	6.33	1730	14
    1947	2	0	0	2	0.0%	2	10	1.00	5.00	1673	25
    1948	2	0	0	2	0.0%	0	16	0.00	8.00	1608	29
    1949	5	1	1	3	26.7%	8	19	1.60	3.80	1780	12
    1950	3	1	0	2	33.3%	4	8	1.33	2.67	1866	7
    1952	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	6	0.00	6.00	1837	8
    1953	1	0	0	1	0.0%	3	6	3.00	6.00	1926	4
    1954	4	2	0	2	50.0%	7	9	1.75	2.25	1526	50
    1955	1	0	0	1	0.0%	2	3	2.00	3.00	1402	71
    1957	4	0	0	4	0.0%	5	21	1.25	5.25	1641	27
    1959	1	0	0	1	0.0%	1	8	1.00	8.00	1861	6
    1960	2	0	1	1	16.7%	3	6	1.50	3.00	1777	17
    1961	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	2	0.00	2.00	1414	67
    1964	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	10	0.00	10.00	1910	3
    1965	4	1	2	1	41.7%	4	5	1.00	1.25	1571	58
    1968	9	4	1	4	48.1%	22	22	2.44	2.44	1385	91
    1969	2	0	0	2	0.0%	0	3	0.00	1.50	1448	77
    1972	4	0	1	3	8.3%	6	10	1.50	2.50	1659	37
    1973	12	3	0	9	25.0%	5	22	0.42	1.83	1672	31
    1974	2	0	0	2	0.0%	1	4	0.50	2.00	1699	27
    1975	5	0	0	5	0.0%	1	22	0.20	4.40	1827	12
    1976	8	1	5	2	33.3%	3	7	0.38	0.88	1532	58
    1977	8	3	2	3	45.8%	7	11	0.88	1.38	1490	70
    1978	3	0	1	2	11.1%	0	3	0.00	1.00	1565	53
    1979	7	2	0	5	28.6%	9	20	1.29	2.86	1835	15
    1980	6	2	2	2	44.4%	7	9	1.17	1.50	1532	60
    1982	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	1	2.00	1.00	1334	107
    1983	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	0	2.00	0.00	1481	72
    1984	9	3	4	2	48.1%	11	9	1.22	1.00	1492	70
    1985	8	2	3	3	37.5%	6	12	0.75	1.50	1522	64
    1986	2	0	2	0	33.3%	1	1	0.50	0.50	1712	29
    1987	3	1	0	2	33.3%	2	4	0.67	1.33	1623	44
    1988	13	3	3	7	30.8%	9	16	0.69	1.23	1539	61
    1989	12	6	3	3	58.3%	12	7	1.00	0.58	1482	72
    1990	22	8	3	11	40.9%	29	31	1.32	1.41	1705	28
    1991	17	8	5	4	56.9%	22	13	1.29	0.76	1592	49
    1992	21	6	4	11	34.9%	21	27	1.00	1.29	1728	27
    1993	34	10	11	13	40.2%	45	44	1.32	1.29	1599	50
    1994	27	7	11	9	39.5%	30	28	1.11	1.04	1693	29
    1995	14	5	3	6	42.9%	20	18	1.43	1.29	1783	22
    1996	16	10	2	4	66.7%	28	19	1.75	1.19	1528	66
    1997	18	5	7	6	40.7%	22	21	1.22	1.17	1596	53
    1998	16	6	4	6	45.8%	15	13	0.94	0.81	1748	23
    1999	13	7	2	4	59.0%	19	11	1.46	0.85	1779	21
    2000	17	9	6	2	64.7%	34	11	2.00	0.65	1665	42
    2001	15	6	3	6	46.7%	14	13	0.93	0.87	1679	40
    2002	20	12	2	6	63.3%	34	18	1.70	0.90	1760	26
    2003	16	10	2	4	66.7%	28	10	1.75	0.63	1679	39
    2004	15	8	6	1	66.7%	28	9	1.87	0.60	1605	54
    2005	20	13	4	3	71.7%	33	12	1.65	0.60	1642	49
    2006	13	6	3	4	53.8%	20	14	1.54	1.08	1718	36
    2007	18	12	1	5	68.5%	31	19	1.72	1.06	1747	29
    2008	14	9	2	3	69.0%	30	8	2.14	0.57	1543	70
    2009	24	13	3	8	58.3%	43	36	1.79	1.50	1712	36
    
    More to come.
     
    2 people repped this.
  4. Prester John

    Prester John New Member

    Aug 7, 2009
    Captain for Life!
    Club:
    Des Moines Menace
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Colombia and Denmark.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. Prester John

    Prester John New Member

    Aug 7, 2009
    Captain for Life!
    Club:
    Des Moines Menace
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And when they did, it is shocking how thrown-together the rosters frequently were. The structure of US soccer barely even existed for most of the first 70 years.

    Every US fan should read Soccer in a Football World just to gain a perspective on how the US soccer structure is still in a relative infancy. Less than three decades ago it was roughly comparable to a third-world nation.
     
  6. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I have a list of every game and lineup, but I haven't updated it for a year or so. NoSix, I forget if it was you I talked with, but I remember me and somebody else both realized that the US soccer web site is off by one on the wins and losses and I never figured out what happened there.

    There are also a number of discrepancies for the lineups between the RSSSF and the hall of game that I've yet to figure out. See here for more detiails:

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=544784
     
  7. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Correct, and repped! Colombia I would have known, but off the top of my head would never have guessed Denmark from the '94 Carlsberg Cup (friendly tournament).
     
  8. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    I will do some digging to see what I can find out about the line-ups. If you could independently verify the number of matches and W-D-L that would be great.

    Here are the results by opponent, i.e. what I believe to be corrected version of the Wikipedia page info:

    Code:
    OPP	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40
    ARG	9	2	1	6	25.9%	8	29	0.89	3.22
    ARM	1	1	0	0	100.0%	1	0	1.00	0.00
    AUS	2	0	1	1	16.7%	0	1	0.00	0.50
    AUT	2	1	0	1	50.0%	4	2	2.00	1.00
    BRB	4	4	0	0	100.0%	20	0	5.00	0.00
    BEL	3	1	0	2	33.3%	3	3	1.00	1.00
    BER	8	6	0	2	75.0%	15	9	1.88	1.13
    BOL	6	0	4	2	22.2%	3	6	0.50	1.00
    BRA	15	1	0	14	6.7%	10	29	0.67	1.93
    CMR	1	0	1	0	33.3%	0	0	0.00	0.00
    CAN	29	12	9	8	51.7%	49	33	1.69	1.14
    CAY	1	1	0	0	100.0%	8	1	8.00	1.00
    CHI	8	3	1	4	41.7%	10	17	1.25	2.13
    CHN	8	5	2	1	70.8%	17	7	2.13	0.88
    COL	15	3	3	9	26.7%	11	19	0.73	1.27
    CIS	2	1	0	1	50.0%	2	2	1.00	1.00
    CRC	28	11	6	11	46.4%	31	34	1.11	1.21
    CIV	1	1	0	0	100.0%	5	2	5.00	2.00
    CUB	9	7	1	1	81.5%	28	10	3.11	1.11
    CZE	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	3	0.00	3.00
    TCH	1	0	0	1	0.0%	1	5	1.00	5.00
    DEN	6	1	3	2	33.3%	8	11	1.33	1.83
    GDR	2	0	0	2	0.0%	3	5	1.50	2.50
    ECU	10	2	4	4	33.3%	6	9	0.60	0.90
    EGY	2	1	0	1	50.0%	4	3	2.00	1.50
    SLV	20	14	5	1	78.3%	45	13	2.25	0.65
    ENG	9	2	0	7	22.2%	8	35	0.89	3.89
    EST	2	2	0	0	100.0%	5	0	2.50	0.00
    FIN	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	1	2.00	1.00
    FRA	2	0	0	2	0.0%	0	9	0.00	4.50
    GER	8	2	0	6	25.0%	11	18	1.38	2.25
    GHA	1	0	0	1	0.0%	1	2	1.00	2.00
    GRE	1	0	1	0	33.3%	1	1	1.00	1.00
    GRN	3	3	0	0	100.0%	10	2	3.33	0.67
    GUA	21	12	5	4	65.1%	29	15	1.38	0.71
    HAI	16	5	5	6	41.7%	22	19	1.38	1.19
    HON	16	11	3	2	75.0%	29	14	1.81	0.88
    HUN	3	1	1	1	44.4%	2	2	0.67	0.67
    ICE	6	2	2	2	44.4%	9	7	1.50	1.17
    IRN	2	0	1	1	16.7%	2	3	1.00	1.50
    IRL	8	2	2	4	33.3%	12	16	1.50	2.00
    ISR	5	1	1	3	26.7%	6	13	1.20	2.60
    ITA	7	0	3	4	14.3%	4	14	0.57	2.00
    JAM	17	9	8	0	68.6%	29	10	1.71	0.59
    JPN	2	1	0	1	50.0%	4	5	2.00	2.50
    KUW	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	0	2.00	0.00
    LVA	1	1	0	0	100.0%	1	0	1.00	0.00
    LIE	1	1	0	0	100.0%	4	1	4.00	1.00
    LUX	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	0	2.00	0.00
    MKD	1	0	1	0	33.3%	0	0	0.00	0.00
    MLT	1	1	0	0	100.0%	1	0	1.00	0.00
    MTQ	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	0	2.00	0.00
    MEX	57	15	11	31	32.7%	65	125	1.14	2.19
    MDA	2	1	1	0	66.7%	4	1	2.00	0.50
    MAR	3	0	0	3	0.0%	2	6	0.67	2.00
    ANT	2	1	1	0	66.7%	4	0	2.00	0.00
    NED	3	0	0	3	0.0%	0	5	0.00	1.67
    NZL	2	2	0	0	100.0%	4	2	2.00	1.00
    NGA	1	1	0	0	100.0%	3	2	3.00	2.00
    PRK	1	0	0	1	0.0%	1	2	1.00	2.00
    NIR	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	5	0.00	5.00
    NOR	5	2	1	2	46.7%	8	14	1.60	2.80
    PAN	8	6	2	0	83.3%	18	4	2.25	0.50
    PAR	5	2	2	1	53.3%	8	5	1.60	1.00
    PER	5	2	1	2	46.7%	5	5	1.00	1.00
    POL	16	7	2	7	47.9%	20	34	1.25	2.13
    POR	5	2	1	2	46.7%	5	5	1.00	1.00
    ROU	4	1	1	2	33.3%	4	4	1.00	1.00
    RUS	4	0	2	2	16.7%	1	4	0.25	1.00
    KSA	6	3	1	2	55.6%	9	8	1.50	1.33
    SCO	6	1	2	3	27.8%	3	13	0.50	2.17
    SVK	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0.00	1.00
    RSA	2	2	0	0	100.0%	5	0	2.50	0.00
    KOR	6	1	2	3	27.8%	5	7	0.83	1.17
    URS	4	0	1	3	8.3%	3	10	0.75	2.50
    ESP	4	1	0	3	25.0%	3	6	0.75	1.50
    SWE	7	4	0	3	57.1%	10	9	1.43	1.29
    SUI	7	1	3	3	28.6%	5	8	0.71	1.14
    THA	1	1	0	0	100.0%	1	0	1.00	0.00
    TRI	21	16	3	2	81.0%	33	10	1.57	0.48
    TUN	1	0	1	0	33.3%	1	1	1.00	1.00
    TUR	2	0	1	1	16.7%	2	3	1.00	1.50
    UKR	3	0	1	2	11.1%	1	3	0.33	1.00
    URU	6	2	2	2	44.4%	6	8	1.00	1.33
    VEN	3	2	1	0	77.8%	7	3	2.33	1.00
    WAL	1	1	0	0	100.0%	2	0	2.00	0.00
    YUG	1	0	0	1	0.0%	0	1	0.00	1.00
    
     
    1 person likes this.
  9. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I have the USMNT record at 197-197-114 after the second Barbados game.
     
  10. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    And sometimes worse than that. Consider what surely must be the darkest day in US soccer history, March 17, 1973:

    Bermuda 4: USA 0

    A certain Mike Renshaw was a substitute in that match. ;)

    The Soccer Hall of Fame is so ashamed they moved the match summary from 1973 to 1963, presumably so no-one can find it. :D
     
  11. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Record since is 18W-3D-9L, so that gives 215W-117D-206L, so there is an extra loss somewhere, maybe we can find it using the by opponent chart.

    Looking at Dave Litterer's all time results pages, based on my research I added +'s (considered unofficial by USSF) to the following matches:

    May 23, 1987 0-2 L vs Canada (Olympic qualifier)
    May 30, 1987 3-0 W vs Canada (Olympic qualifier)
    June 19, 1988 2-3 L vs Nigeria (Nigerian club team, not national team)
    Sep 20, 1988 0-0 D vs South Korea (Olympic qualifier)

    Maybe the Nigeria friendly is the extra loss?
     
  12. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Yeah, that's the one. Has that designation been changed in the past couple years?
     
  13. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    According to the RSSSF, it was a "Nigerian XI", i.e. club
    all-star squad.

    http://www.rsssf.com/tablesu/usa-intres-det80.html

    The match is included on the hall of fame website, but it clearly does not meet their own definition of "official".

    FWIW, FIFA.com has the other 13 results from 1988 listed on the HOF website, but not the Nigeria match. Same thing for ELO.

    Anyways, I am going to call it a night. Will spend some time tomorrow looking into your line-up questions, and will let you know what I find.
     
  14. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Starting from 1995, and working my way back in time:

    18) Sam’s Army ratings poll confirms Moore entered as a sub on 46’, no Berhalter

    http://www.sams-army.com/Nats-Results.html

    17) According to his profile, in 1994, Klopas started 12 games, played in 15. Since according to the HOF, he made 12 starts and only 2 other substitute appearances, the third must have been this match.

    http://ussoccerplayers.typepad.com/ussoccerplayers/klopas-frankie.html

    16) FIFA official match report confirms Kinnear entered as a sub on 73’

    http://www.fifa.com/tournaments/archive/tournament=101/edition=4297/matches/match=21303/report.html

    Only 15 more to go. ;) I will search more later and post again tonight.

    More to come on the USMNT all-time record as well.
     
  15. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Here is the all-time record broken out by competition type:

    Code:
    COMP	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40	1650	36
    F	309	102	74	133	41.0%	377	461	1.22	1.49	1687	30
    OF	3	1	0	2	33.3%	3	14	1.00	4.67	1903	2
    CQ	2	1	1	0	66.7%	4	2	2.00	1.00	1671	39
    CF	61	40	8	13	69.9%	104	55	1.70	0.90	1611	49
    CC	15	6	1	8	42.2%	20	20	1.33	1.33	1820	15
    WCQ	122	59	30	33	56.6%	203	151	1.66	1.24	1535	64
    WCF	25	6	3	16	28.0%	27	51	1.08	2.04	1816	16
    
    where:
    Code:
    F	Friendly
    OF	Olympic Finals
    CQ	Continental Qualifier
    CF	Continental Finals
    CC	Confederations Cup
    WCQ	World Cup Qualifier
    WCF	World Cup Finals
    
    Note the high correlation between the points percentage earned in the different competitions and the median opponent ELO ranking (-0.75) and rating (0.77), respectively.

    To observe this effect directly, the following tables show the all-time record broken out by ELO ranking and rating increment:

    By ELO rating:
    Code:
    RAT	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40
    <2200	2	0	0	2	0.0%	2	4	1.00	2.00
    <2100	11	2	1	8	21.2%	7	23	0.64	2.09
    <2000	40	5	2	33	14.2%	26	109	0.65	2.73
    <1900	73	16	20	37	31.1%	67	130	0.92	1.78
    <1800	102	37	20	45	42.8%	132	154	1.29	1.51
    <1700	76	23	16	37	37.3%	93	126	1.22	1.66
    <1600	112	52	30	30	55.4%	158	114	1.41	1.02
    <1500	73	43	21	9	68.5%	136	61	1.86	0.84
    <1400	30	21	6	3	76.7%	64	23	2.13	0.77
    <1300	15	13	1	1	88.9%	37	8	2.47	0.53
    <1200	3	3	0	0	100.0%	16	2	5.33	0.67
    
    By ELO ranking:
    Code:
    RNK	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA
    Total	537	215	117	205	47.3%	738	754	1.37	1.40
    <=10	78	10	8	60	16.2%	61	204	0.78	2.62
    <=20	79	23	18	38	36.7%	80	131	1.01	1.66
    <=30	80	23	18	39	36.3%	104	134	1.30	1.68
    <=40	47	18	7	22	43.3%	62	82	1.32	1.74
    <=50	38	17	9	12	52.6%	56	40	1.47	1.05
    <=60	46	18	16	12	50.7%	59	44	1.28	0.96
    <=70	44	21	14	9	58.3%	65	32	1.48	0.73
    <=80	40	22	11	7	64.2%	56	34	1.40	0.85
    <=90	27	18	7	2	75.3%	57	18	2.11	0.67
    <=100	21	13	5	3	69.8%	38	16	1.81	0.76
    <=110	13	11	2	0	89.7%	30	9	2.31	0.69
    <=120	10	8	1	1	83.3%	21	4	2.10	0.40
    <=140	9	8	1	0	92.6%	29	3	3.22	0.33
    <=200	5	5	0	0	100.0%	20	3	4.00	0.60
    
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. dsp87260

    dsp87260 New Member

    Mar 19, 2005
    That was me :)

    The thread we posted our work in is around here somewhere...

    I've also slacked off this year, so I have some homework to do before my numbers are current...
     
  17. SamsArmySam

    SamsArmySam Member+

    Apr 13, 2001
    Minneapolis, MN
    Clearly, he should have started.

    NoSix, nice work. Data work takes time. Repped.
     
  18. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    So if you've read this far, you are probably thinking that all of these tables of data are wonderful and all, but what are they possibly good for? Well, this is an analysis forum, and I would argue that the answers to many of the questions that are endlessly debated on this forum can be found within this data, if you invest a little effort to look.

    Still unconvinced? Consider a question that has come up recently in multiple threads and inevitably sparks pages and pages of impassioned debate: which team is the best USA team in history, Bruce Arena's 2002 team or Bob Bradley's current squad? Everyone has an opinion, but what do the data say? Let's have a look.

    Arena (1999-2002)
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	65	34	13	18	59.0%	101	53	1.55	0.82	1724	27
    Home	38	26	7	5	74.6%	72	21	1.89	0.55	1723	28
    Away	19	3	6	10	26.3%	17	24	0.89	1.26	1717	28
    Neutral	8	5	0	3	62.5%	12	8	1.50	1.00	1824	17
    
    Bradley (2007-2009)
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	56	34	6	16	64.3%	104	63	1.86	1.13	1712	36
    Home	31	24	5	2	82.8%	76	27	2.45	0.87	1631	48
    Away	17	8	1	8	49.0%	18	19	1.06	1.12	1727	34
    Neutral	8	2	0	6	25.0%	10	17	1.25	2.13	1987	4
    
    From the first row of the first table, we find that Arena's 2002 team scored 1.55 goals per game and conceded 0.82 goals per game for a goal differential of 0.73 goals per game. From the first row of the second table, we find that Bob Bradley's current team has scored 1.86 goals per game and conceded 1.13 goals per game for a goal differential of, you guessed it, 0.73 goals per game. :eek: I am not making this up: over the course of 121 games, the data indicate that the two teams are virtually identical in strength.

    Now the fans of the 2002 team (and Poisson distribution aficionados), will point out that Arena's team compiled their record against slightly more difficult opponents, with a median ELO rating 12 pts higher than Bradley's team faced, and in fact even though the goal differential is identical, because Arena's teams conceded fewer goals, the expected points percentage for Arena's team is actually slightly higher than for Bradley's team, 63.1% vs 62.0%. The Bradley fans, however, will counter that Bradley's actual win percentage is higher: 64.3% vs 59.0%. In other words, the data suggest that perhaps Arena's team was slightly better, and Bradley's team is slightly luckier.

    But that would really be splitting hairs - within the margin of error of the analysis, the two teams are effectively equal in strength! :D
     
  19. cpwilson80

    cpwilson80 Member+

    Mar 20, 2001
    Boston
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I cannot rep right now, but just wanted to say that this is amazing work!
     
  20. cpwilson80

    cpwilson80 Member+

    Mar 20, 2001
    Boston
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Can you compare the five distinct cycle teams?

    Bora: 1991 - 1994
    Sampson: 1995 - 1998
    Arena, pt 1: 1999-2002
    Arena, pt 2: 2003-2006
    Bradley: 2007-present

    I think this would give us a better sense of two things:

    1) The rate of our progress over the past 20 years
    2) Some additional context for the WC 2006 performance
     
  21. Mr Martin

    Mr Martin Member+

    Jun 12, 2002
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I did a more primitive version of this over the summer. My numbers were not updated through the end of 2009.

    I also found that BB's current cycle is essentially = to Arena's first cycle, and better than Arena's 2nd cycle.



    Anyway, Rep to NoSix, again.
     
  22. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    No question that Bora's and Sampson's teams were weaker than what followed, but I will do the calculations and post here for reference's sake. Here's the Arena, pt 2 data:

    Arena (2003-2006):
    Code:
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	64	37	15	12	65.6%	109	45	1.70	0.70	1639	48
    Home	43	30	9	4	76.7%	87	19	2.02	0.44	1609	52
    Away	14	6	4	4	52.4%	18	17	1.29	1.21	1575	58
    Neutral	7	1	2	4	23.8%	4	9	0.57	1.29	1867	11
    
    Now this requires some explanation. The 2006 team compiled a better goal differential, 1.00, versus significantly weaker competition than either the 2002 team or current team faced. Fortunately, making use of the Poisson distribution, it is possible to translate back and forth between goal differential and ELO ratings points. It turns out that 1.70 GF, 0.70 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1639 is the equivalent of 1.55 GF, 0.82 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1688. Since the 2002 team compiled 1.55 GF, 0.82 GA against opponents with a 1724 rating, the 2002 team was stronger.

    Similarly, comparing 2006 against the current team, 1.70 GF, 0.70 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1639 is the equivalent of 1.86 GF, 1.13 GA against opponents with a median ELO rating of 1696. Since the current team compiled 1.86 GF, 1.13 GA against opponents with a 1712 rating, the current team is stronger.
     
  23. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Nice analysis. Must spread rep, etc., etc. See the post above this one for the comparison to Arena's 2006 squad.
     
  24. NoSix

    NoSix Member+

    Feb 18, 2002
    Phoenix
    Here is a summary table comparing the team's record during each of the last 5 World Cup cycles:

    Totals
    Code:
    Coach	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    M	99	31	31	37	41.8%	118	112	1.19	1.13	1657	35
    S	64	26	16	22	49.0%	85	71	1.33	1.11	1664	35
    A1	65	34	13	18	59.0%	101	53	1.55	0.82	1724	27
    A2	64	37	15	12	65.6%	109	45	1.70	0.70	1639	48
    B	56	34	6	16	64.3%	105	62	1.88	1.11	1712	36
    
    Clearly, Milutinovic's and Sampson's teams had poorer records against weaker opponents compared to Arena1 and Bradley. As remarked by Mr. Martin, note the curiously weak opponents of Arena2, compared to Arena1 and Bradley.

    Here is the detailed break down by match location for each team:
    Code:
    Milutinovic (1991-1994)											
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	99	31	31	37	41.8%	118	112	1.19	1.13	1657	35
    Home	70	25	25	20	47.6%	91	64	1.30	0.91	1676	34
    Away	23	5	3	15	26.1%	18	40	0.78	1.74	1595	50
    Neutral	6	1	3	2	33.3%	9	8	1.50	1.33	1738	27
    											
    Sampson (1995-1998)											
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	64	26	16	22	49.0%	85	71	1.33	1.11	1664	35
    Home	40	21	10	9	60.8%	62	40	1.55	1.00	1664	34
    Away	14	3	4	7	31.0%	14	17	1.00	1.21	1572	58
    Neutral	10	2	2	6	26.7%	9	14	0.90	1.40	1810	19
    
    Arena (1999-2002)											
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	65	34	13	18	59.0%	101	53	1.55	0.82	1724	27
    Home	38	26	7	5	74.6%	72	21	1.89	0.55	1723	28
    Away	19	3	6	10	26.3%	17	24	0.89	1.26	1717	28
    Neutral	8	5	0	3	62.5%	12	8	1.50	1.00	1824	17
    											
    Arena (2003-2006)											
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	64	37	15	12	65.6%	109	45	1.70	0.70	1639	48
    Home	43	30	9	4	76.7%	87	19	2.02	0.44	1609	52
    Away	14	6	4	4	52.4%	18	17	1.29	1.21	1575	58
    Neutral	7	1	2	4	23.8%	4	9	0.57	1.29	1867	11
    											
    Bradley (2007-2009)											
    Loc	MP	W	D	L	PPCT	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	ORAT	ORNK
    Total	56	34	6	16	64.3%	105	62	1.88	1.11	1712	36
    Home	31	24	5	2	82.8%	76	27	2.45	0.87	1631	48
    Away	17	8	1	8	49.0%	19	18	1.12	1.06	1727	34
    Neutral	8	2	0	6	25.0%	10	17	1.25	2.13	1987	4
    
     
    1 person likes this.
  25. Lloyd Heilbrunn

    Lloyd Heilbrunn Member+

    Feb 11, 2002
    Jupiter, Fl.
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Anyone else amused to see we won exactly one game in 1950? :)
     

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