The Global Warming Thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by NickyViola, Nov 30, 2009.

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  1. YankHibee

    YankHibee Member+

    Mar 28, 2005
    indianapolis
  2. YankHibee

    YankHibee Member+

    Mar 28, 2005
    indianapolis
  3. Minarchist

    Minarchist New Member

    Jan 9, 2008
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Sorry, anthroprogenic climate warming advocates.

    It IS unraveling.

    And all your counterarguments are bogus.

    Peer reviewed? These guys at East Anglia actively worked to suppress peer review.

    Data "hacked?" How about using the term "whistle blower?" I'll bet the first guy $20 that releasing all this stuff was an inside job.

    And the most laughable illogical position of all -- that, you know. those right wing nutjobs follow science when it suits them, but don't when it doesn't. What a joke. Why? Because, in case you weren't paying attention in grade school, there is GOOD science and then there is BAD science.

    And, ladies and gentlemen, this was really bad science.

    IN good science, a proof of a hypothesis must be reproducible. That requires access to the data -- ALL of it -- not just the "smoothed" data derived through statistical "tricks" but the RAW data that was the starting point for the "tricks"

    Well, lordy me, guess what. The original raw data is "lost." How special!!

    And then there is the "statistical" trick itself. You know what that was? It's tossing out non-warming "tree ring data" since 1960 and substituting proxy data. Because, alas, the post-1960 tree ring data SHOULD have reflected warming (well, because, you know the medieval data did) but it didn't. Nice trick, that.

    Personally, I am an agnostic on man made global warming. Only two facts are indisputable -- the amount of CO2 is increasing and we have exited a "little ice age."

    The case for the reasoning chain -- "we're pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere, and too much CO2 will overheat the planet" -- requires a HUGE logical leap. The bad science behind the yahoos at East Anglia and Michael Mann at Penn State simply underscores the current unprovability of this claim.

    And, finally, there's this goofy global governance effort to get nations to sacrifice a portion of their economies to the global warming advocates with all its negative and unforseen consequences. To engage in such far reaching transformation demands real knowledge.

    You've heard the saying -- extraordinary measures require extraordinary proof.

    This science is extraordinary-- extraordinarily bad.
     
  4. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Hey, look: Another one!
     
  5. Minarchist

    Minarchist New Member

    Jan 9, 2008
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Fixed.

    Meanwhile, do you know the "trick" of ignoring arguments and instead simply dismissing them with no real logical counter-position?

    Lazily call them "talking points."

    Then again, accepting this crap as "science" is the ultimate in laziness.

    Just so you know...the AGW side is losing, and losing big now.
     
  6. YankHibee

    YankHibee Member+

    Mar 28, 2005
    indianapolis
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    er something.

    You kids can copy and paste pretty well, I'll give you that.
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Whatever, sock.

    Yes. The deniers in the blogosphere are really flying on this one.


    I'm calling the crap you're recycling talking points. Because that's pretty much what they are.


    There's lots of crap science. There's probably lots of crap science in Climate Studies. But that's not been proved by a bunch of out-of-context Emails

    In the right-wing blogosphere, you bet your ass it is. In reality... we'll see.
     
  8. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

    Jul 2, 2003
    Fornax Cluster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    I'm sure that way back in the 1980's when they ran out of storage space and decided to clean out all of the old magnetic tapes that held the raw data, the last thing they thought of was nutjobs accusing them of some giant conspiracy.

    And where is all the raw data that proves the earth is round? Where? Uh-huh. It's all a giant conspiracy.
     
  9. JeremyEritrea

    JeremyEritrea Member+

    Jun 29, 2006
    Takoma Park, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  10. scotch17

    scotch17 Member

    Jun 15, 2008
    Entebbe
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Yea but that happens every year between February 17 and 21.
     
  11. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Its not a game you know. Nobody's going to "win".

    (And if it were a game, well, you know, Jamarcus Russel's ineptitude does not keep Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Phillip Rivers from getting it right now and then...)
     
  12. benztown

    benztown Member+

    Jun 24, 2005
    Club:
    VfB Stuttgart
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    A couple of things:

    1) There is no debate about the temperature development over the last 30 years. We've had satellites in space monitoring our climate ever since the late 1970s.
    From 1980 to 2000, the temperature increased about roughly 0.2°C and it didn't change over the last decade.

    2) What has happened in this climate gate scandal is that the temperature curves that go back further have become doubtful. The method by which they calculated the temperature obviously leads to a temperature decline after 1960.

    So either their method is simply wrong, which means the long term curve is wrong, or their calculations after 1960 are wrong.

    In both cases we have a problem, because all the climate models are based upon this curve which is clearly tailored to look the way it does.

    3) The CRU has discredited itself even more by destroying the raw data from treerings, icecores and other proxies. In old emails that now surfaced, the head of the CRU even said that he'd rather destroy the data than give it to the skeptics as the law demands. They further wrote about undermining the peer review process and manipulating the press.

    4) So what to do now? The first thing to do would be to exclude these frauds from the scientific community. These people give science a bad reputation. Next, all the CRU data and everything that is based upon it needs to be thrown out of the window.
    Then, new models have to be developed in an open and reproducable manner upon which the future discussion has to be based.
     
    1 person likes this.
  13. scotch17

    scotch17 Member

    Jun 15, 2008
    Entebbe
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    The sky is falling!!!




    no, wait... it's just getting warmer.
     
  14. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    For anyone after a more reasoned analysis of this issue beyond the tabloid headlines, a long but good article from Popular Mechanics

    Beyond climate models, the observable case for climate change

    http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Physical-realities-of-global-warming.html

    [​IMG]

    Figure 4: Observed (red line) and modeled September Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers. Solid black line gives the average of 13 IPCC AR4 models while dashed black lines represent their range. The 2009 minimum has recently been calculated at 5.10 million km2, the third lowest year on record and still well below the IPCC worst case scenario.


    [​IMG]
    Figure 3: Sea level change. Tide gauge data are indicated in red and satellite data in blue. The grey band shows the projections of the IPCC Third Assessment report.
     
  15. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    [​IMG]
    Figure 1: Observed global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production compared with IPCC emissions scenarios. The coloured area covers all scenarios used to project climate change by the IPCC.


    [​IMG]
    Figure 2: Global temperature according to NASA GISS data since 1980. The red line shows annual data, the red square shows the preliminary value for 2009, based on January-August. The green line shows the 25-year linear trend (0.19 °C per decade). The blue lines show the two most recent ten-year trends (0.18 °C per decade for 1998-2007, 0.19 per decade for 1999-2008).




    Some more observations from the latest research:

    • Recent studies have confirmed the observed trends of more hot extremes and fewer cold extremes.
    • Rains have become more intense in already-rainy areas as atmospheric water vapor content increases. Recent changes have occurred faster than predicted by some climate models, raising the possibility that future changes will be more severe than predicted.
    • Conversely, there have been observed increases in drought in some latitude bands. The intensification of the global hydrological cycle is expected to lead to further increases in very heavy precipitation in wet areas and increased drought in dry areas.
    • Several studies since the IPCC AR4 have found more evidence for an increase in hurricane intensity over the past decades.
    • There have been recent increases in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in regions with Mediterranean climates (e.g. Spain, Greece, southern California, south-east Australia) and further marked increases are expected.
    • Rapid degradation and upward movement of the permafrost lower limit has continued on the Tibetan plateau. Observations in Europe have noted permafrost thawing and a substantial increase in the depth of the overlying layer.
    • The contribution from shrinking glaciers to sea level rise in 2000 was about 0.8 millimeters per year. New estimates show that glacier mass loss has increased 50% and now contributes about 1.2 millimeters per year to global sea levels.
    • There have been a number of recent studies reinforcing the conclusion that the rate of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are increasing. Recent observations have shown that changes in the rate of ice discharge can occur far more rapidly than previously suspected. Dynamic ice sheet uncertainties are largely one-sided. They can lead to a faster rate of sea-level rise but are unlikely to significantly slow the rate of rise.
    • Observations also show deep-ocean warming is much more widespread in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than previously appreciated.
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Physical-realities-of-global-warming.html
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. KevTheGooner

    KevTheGooner Help that poor man!

    Dec 10, 1999
    THOF
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Andorra
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    CRP reports are published in Nature, Science, International Journal of Climatology, Journal of Biophysical Research, etc. etc. Sounds peer reviewed to me.

    How is releasing thousands of emails, of which a few, if misquoted, give vague insights into their thinking? If that's an inside job...they suck at inside jobs.

    Sure is. That's why we have peer reviewed articles, the scientific method, and all that nerdy stuff that guys with thick glasses argue about for days at conferences. Luckily for us, the avalanche of good science from the "BAD" scientists at American Geophysicists Union or MIT the overwhelms the science at denier institutions like:

    The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine. Yes, the same people that brought you your favorite night-time reading such as "Nuclear War Survival Skills" and "Access to Energy" (it's about creating more access for energy development. Surprising, I know).

    Or

    The Heartland Institute, your run of the mill GOOD science shop funded by..wait, no, not cigarette companies, Exxon Mobil and Koch Industries (the largest private energy company in the US)?!

    Or

    GOOD science from Rep. Thaddeus McCotter who claims we shouldn't worry about climate change because it didn't bother the cavemen 1,000 years ago. That's right...1,000 years ago.

    Your credentials in statistics, geophysics, or really any science at all would have come in handy here.

    OK, you're right. This study is hereby invalid. Only 99,999 more studies to go and you win!

    Actually, the trick was to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Also, the authors of the tree ring data were published in Nature suggesting that their data be not used and is known as the "divergence problem". They should have shown the data anyways, so fair point to you.

    Actually the Greenhouse Effect was first proven in the ninteenth century. It's pretty easy to reconstruct actually. What's really scary is that as scientists look into the geological records, they find that when earth had the PPMs of CO2-eqs were about to have, it was a pretty nasty place.

    Harvard economist Martin Weitzmann and others would disagree. A recent paper (it's a PDF you can get here: http://climateprogress.org/2009/01/29/martin-weitzman-climate-cost-benefit-analysis-fat-tail/) by Weitzmann shows that if even the long tail of probability in climate analysis happens, there is no amount of economics that can justify inaction. Again, unfortunately that long tail is looking more and more likely.

    Hey, guess what your coal loving' pal Senator Byrd said today: “Coal Must embrace the future. The truth is that some form of climate legislation will likely become public policy because most American voters want a healthier environment. To deny the mounting science of climate change is to stick our heads in the sand"

    Guess what...you and Inhofe and the other "skeptics" on this thread (who have left, I've noticed) are the last one's left. Be sure to turn the light out when you leave.
     
    1 person likes this.
  17. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

    Jul 2, 2003
    Fornax Cluster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Considering the earth is only 6,000 years old, I'm not sure what your issue is.
     
    2 people repped this.
  18. Oceans of time

    Jun 26, 2007
    Chicago
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Global Warming or "Globalwarminism" is a religion of peace and one of the world's five great religions. Why can't people just leave them alone to worship Al Gore in peace.
     
  19. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    The only people putting climate change into the context of belief are the deniers that refuse to "believe" the strong empirical evidence for global warming.

    You are the only ones going off into the realms of fairies and pixies.
     
  20. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Yup, the last time CO2 was as high as today was 15 million years ago, when the planet was 5-10 degrees F higher than today and sea levels were 75-100 ft higher

    http://www.sustain.ucla.edu/news/article.asp?parentid=4676
     
    1 person likes this.
  21. dogface

    dogface Let's Just Pretend

    Jun 22, 2002
    St. Peter, MN
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Stupid polar bears.
     
  22. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    I blame their demise on Al Gore being fat
     
  23. Oceans of time

    Jun 26, 2007
    Chicago
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Whatever. I always thought it was too cold anyway.
     
  24. bit_pattern

    bit_pattern New Member

    Oct 30, 2009
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    Come spend a summer in SE Australia :(
     
  25. Chicago1871

    Chicago1871 Member

    Apr 21, 2001
    Chicago
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Climategate: it's all unravelling now

    What about the data from other sources that hasn't been compromised that supports the theory of climate change/global warming? Do you really think that ALL data with regards to this field of study came from a single source or are you more of a "it is a massive conspiracy" type? EAU and their data has been shown to have been compromised to at least some degree. The billions of pieces of other data on the subject haven't.

    Moving on.
     

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