Birthdate effect worldwide at U17 World Cup

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by Stan Collins, Oct 20, 2009.

  1. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
  2. midfieldmadness

    Aug 12, 2009
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    That's because it turns out, many of the African players haven't been 17, or even close and they had fudged birth certificates.

    Interesting article anyway though.
     
  3. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    I don't see why this is a surprise, and is barely interesting. Half a year is an eternity as kids are going thru puberty. The trend exists throughout the world for a reason.

    (And the reason for the African discrepancy is obvious.......as pointed out above.)
     
  4. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    It's one of the few times in life that you'll ever get hard, empirical evidence that some kids are arbitrarily being favored in development over others. That's what makes it extremely interesting to me.

    And one wonders why. There's two possibilities I can see:

    1 The coaches cannot mentally correct for the maturity discrepancy nearly as well as they think they can, or
    2 They just don't care, and are merely out to win games

    Either way, there's an argument that the system ought to intervene and give some enhanced opportunities for some kids that were "born under a bad sign." (Which in this case would be something like Scorpio.)

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKY8KIt9kqc"]YouTube - Albert King - 1981 - Born Under A Bad Sign[/ame]

    --

    As to the cheating issue, yeah, I just didn't wanna say it. The big spike in December birthdays looks particularly suspicious. That looks awfully close to where January is for the "rest of the world"--and remember, these are kids that, if their birth certificate said exactly one year earlier, would be ineligible.
     
  5. TheClockworkOrange

    Jun 20, 2008
    Thats because the African countries don't care about the month, its all about the year! Until those pesky MRI tests come along and ruin all the fun.
     
  6. CrewDust

    CrewDust Member

    May 6, 1999
    Columbus, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just like horses.
     
  7. Shibb

    Shibb Member

    Feb 22, 2005
    Tampa
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers" his first chapter discusses this phenomenon, looking at the numbers for Canadian youth hockey. He concludes that the early born kids dominate, so win the spots early on youth teams, which means that they get the best environment to develop, which means that when they get up into the older age brackets they have a huge advantage. It's not the 6-12 months at age 17 - 20. It all of the opportunities which they got before that.

    To fix this, you'd have to subdivide the youth teams down to the point where the age advantage wasn't as noticeable: split into groups on half years, quarters or months.

    Also note that MAYBE the reason (or another reason) that this doesn't show up as much with the African countries is because they don't have an elaborate system in place to give advantages to the best kids. In the end this means that the best skilled kids get chosen without an early year bias. You might even assume that the younger kids would have an advantage in a non-select system as they would have been challenged throughout their young careers playing against kids who are bigger and stronger. Once they reach the top level - and most have stopped growing - they catch up physically yet possess the wiles they need to succeed against relatively bigger kids.
     
  8. Scotty

    Scotty Member+

    Dec 15, 1999
    Toscana
    Hmm. Could this be the reason why French coach Raymond Domenech is wary of picking Scorpios to play for the national team?
     
  9. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    This is the graph of Africa vs the rest of the world

    [​IMG] The 'noise' may be one of the other factors you mentioned. I think the 'december spike' defies that type of explanation, or any that I've seen besides cheating.
     
  10. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Stan -

    It's both.

    First, soccer coaches don't get the job for their ability to analyze data. There is a reason that Arsene Wenger is considered to be so unusual. I have never met a youth soccer coach who understood the age-effect argument, and I have met multiple State ODP coaches and a couple of national assistants. I mean, none of these guys will be getting jobs at Goldman Sachs anytime soon as research analysts.

    Second, yeah they want to win.
     
  11. due time

    due time Member+

    Mar 1, 1999
    Santa Clara
    This is just your own cultural bias. You can't seem to comprehend an alternative system where 'birthdays' are not important. Not noted, not celebrated. Couple that with the additional facts that much of Africa has little in the way of documentation of live births like the western and developed world, and that they use a totally different calendar.

    My wife is a high school track coach and has had to deal with this on occasion. One kid had one date on his immigration papers and another date on another document. This discrepancy seemed to come out of the translation to the Julian calendar. His own dad had no idea what his birthday was. He was pretty sure what year he was born in.
     
  12. No shinguards

    No shinguards Member

    Mar 21, 2008
    The Moon
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Uhhhh - Pretty sure FIFA makes the rules about birth year eligibility.. are they suppossed to change the methodology due to Africa's system which doesn't follow the rest of the worlds calander?

    ANd you can say that there is no intentional "mis-representation" if you want.. and I agree.. its a likely case.. but then they shouldn't complain when age scans are done to verify birth date... Heck -I would support them age verifiying EVERY PLAYER that gets named to an U17 WC Roster.
     
  13. Shibb

    Shibb Member

    Feb 22, 2005
    Tampa
    Club:
    FC Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It might be interesting to map African and non African youth (not elite soccer players) for birth dates to see how much each deviates from the select soccer trend.
     
  14. due time

    due time Member+

    Mar 1, 1999
    Santa Clara
    Never said that. Just that there are complications when trying to fit a round hole into a square peg. Doesn't make the round hole right or the square peg a cheater.

    If technology can overcome the inherent cultural differences in a way that's fair to everyone, that's a good thing. Yes, they shouldn't complain about it. Are they?
     
  15. No shinguards

    No shinguards Member

    Mar 21, 2008
    The Moon
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  16. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Here's the problem--the data say they are important in Africa. Again, the 'noisy' part where there's no particular trend, I can buy it (in the sense that it could go either way). For the December spike . . . there's an 'exogenous' explanation for that. By exogenous I mean if it isn't cheating, it's something outside the normal system that we haven't explained yet. 'Birthdate isn't important' doesn't cut it. Because birthdate is obviously and measurably important.
     
  17. due time

    due time Member+

    Mar 1, 1999
    Santa Clara
    I don't understand. Why does the data say birthday's are important?

    Birthday's are important to you, as you celebrate yours and your parents and your siblings and your kids, etc...

    And, of course, birthdates are important to FIFA. But only after a kid has had a few of them do they start caring. By then, the parents and the kids and the government has kinda lost track of the exact date because they weren't important to those people at the time of occurrence. What's so hard to understand about that?

    Let's do a thought experiment with an outlandish example. If FIFA decided that the determining factor for eligibility was how much time had past since the child first used the potty, how many people at the age of 16 would know their exact date? Some people are going to be able to ask their mom who wrote down everything in a scrap book. Some parents are going to remember that is was sometime in the spring. Some will just have to guess even what year it was.

    So think of birthday's in Africa like that. If the prevailing culture and the local gov't doesn't write down birthdates at the time of occurance, because they are just not important to them, then you are going to have a problem accurately determining those dates 15 years later.
     
  18. No shinguards

    No shinguards Member

    Mar 21, 2008
    The Moon
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I can understand, after 16 years, missing the actual birthdate by , say upto 6 months, one way or the other.. so a kid who is born on June first, the date could sway any whre within the 12 months surrounding that date... I'd buy that..

    What is really notable here, however, is that there is a consistency in the "misses".. and it shows the player younger than they actually are, and by as much as 3 or 4 years....How many players get a scan which shows them 3 years younger than they tought?

    OK- before yuostart, I agree, we are sampling a specific set which is called elite soccer player, and you'll tell me that there are likely folks walking around who think they are 3 or 4 years older than they really are, ( but it doesnt matter to them anyway), So what the "data" reveals" is that for those folks who have missed the birthdate "DOWN" rather than "UP" seem to have much better soccer skills at a presumed age of 16...
     
  19. due time

    due time Member+

    Mar 1, 1999
    Santa Clara
    The data shown at the start of the thread says nothing about being 3-4 years off. Do you have a source for that?

    I do think that in years past, that some African teams have used overage players and taken advantage of the lack of documentation. The use of bone growth to prevent that is a great idea.

    But this idea that every African team is trying to cheat and using every data set to try to show that without taking into account the rational explanations for most of the discrepancy is not being fair to the Africans.
     
  20. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    No one said every team is cheating, only that on balance there appears to be cheating going on.

    No shinguards is hinting at an explanation of 'accidental cheating'--that people are making honest mistakes in both directions on their birth certificates, and it's the mistakes made in the younger direction (ie it says you're younger than you are) are the guys who make the team. The ones whose birth certificates say they are older than they really are don't make the cut.

    That's plausible. . . but it's still kids who don't deserve to be out there, though.
     
  21. BirdsonFire

    BirdsonFire Member

    May 9, 2008
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    3. There isn't much to be done. The system is set up that way. 1st grade has a cut off. Age groups have cut-offs. 6 months is a great deal at the younger ages. It stands to reason that those older would have the upper hand.

    It will take someone special to make it out in the younger bracket.

    I'm sorry. This doesn't really bother me. If you want to do something about this, you are going to have to fight all of society, all of mother nature. Good luck with that.

    Otherwise, if you want your kid to have a better chance. Plan to have him/her at the right time of year to maximize their chance.
     
  22. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    I said there were two explanations, and you listed a third thing. . . but it isn't an explanation, is it? It's apparently a (null) treatment plan.

    But besides not being an explanation for why, it doesn't seem true at all. It's easy to include kids who aren't at the very oldest edge of eligibility--all you have to do is force yourself. Compare the kids only against kids that are actually in their age group, which is more like a couple of months than a couple of years.
     
  23. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Yeah, people don't realize how tight the birthdate effect is. When my kid did ODP, they split the squad in half at the Regional level, a January - June team and a July - December team. Half the goals for the two teams were scored by kids born in January and July. If they would have done February - July and August - January, I'm guessing that 50% of the goals would have been scored by kids born in February and August. However you slice the pool, the method of slicing has a very large effect on the selections. Particularly when the ODP Regional process (and I guess upcoming Academy selections, if Academy is going to U14) starts at such a sensitive time, that is about age 13, when the boys are changing so rapidly.
     
  24. BirdsonFire

    BirdsonFire Member

    May 9, 2008
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Sure, sure it isn't true. That's why the discrepancy holds the world over. Because it is that simple.


    I'm really proud that you could not bother to read the explanation I gave. Yet could go on a pc4th quality personalized mission.

    Well done.
     
  25. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    So, I'll indulge you then. What is it you think you said that I didn't read?

    You'll agree that "there's not much to be done" is not an explanation for why a phenomenon exists, right?

    And what content does "the system is set up that way" add? The system is set up that way. . . exactly until you do something else and then no more.

    Are you saying we'd lose games if we played younger kids? Yeah, we probably would. . . did it not occur to you that's why I asked the question? That it might perchance matter if coaches didn't know they were being biased or didn't care?

    But here I am already putting words in your mouth to make your post more substantive than it was. Why don't you tell me what you have to say besides a wordy shrug of the shoulders, since my reading comprehension is so poor?
     
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