Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I agree, it's getting close to 9 for 8 instead of 11. But TFC and RSL are still in it, and KC is stubbornly hanging on, and in a decent vein of form. My rankings, in terms of chances to make the playoffs. 1. Crew (can clinch under some scenarios next week). Tough schedule w/ CCL also. 2. Houston. 2/3 at home, 1 vs. KC. 46 is good enough. 3. Chivas. 6 games left, 4 at home, including NY, KC, and SJ. 4. LA. Looking good, but tough schedule: @Crew, Fire, @Hou, SJ. The last on helps. 5. Fire. Would be higher, but home form is so poor. Still should beat TFC next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think the above five teams are looking very good to make it, based on their quality, their point totals, and their schedules, or some combination of the three. Next two are looking good, but have a lot of games on the road, which means a struggle is possible. 6. Colorado. Schedule looks easy, but @KC suddenly not a gimmie, and don't want to have get points @RSL in the finale. 7. Seattle. Looking good on points. 3/4 on road: @NE, @Crew, @KC. FCD = security. From there, it's a battle, with DC and NE in better shape than TFC and RSL.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Way to fall flat, Colorado. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] 01 CMB 25 5 11 10 04 43 1.72 52 58 06 23 16 02 HOU 27 3 12 07 08 43 1.59 48 52 06 17 10 03 LAG 26 4 10 11 05 41 1.58 47 53 08 18 11 04 CHI 26 4 10 10 06 40 1.54 46 52 09 17 10 05 SEA 26 4 09 11 06 38 1.46 44 50 11 15 08 06 COL 26 4 10 08 08 38 1.46 44 50 11 15 08 07 CDC 24 6 11 04 09 37 1.54 46 55 12 20 13 08 DCU 26 4 08 12 06 36 1.38 42 48 13 13 06 ---------------------------------------------------------- 09 NER 24 6 09 07 08 34 1.42 43 52 15 17 10 10 RSL 26 4 09 07 10 34 1.31 39 46 15 11 04 11 TFC 26 4 09 07 10 34 1.31 39 46 15 11 04 12 KCW 25 5 08 06 11 30 1.20 36 45 19 10 03 13 FCD 25 5 07 06 12 27 1.08 32 42 22 07 00 14 SJE 24 6 05 07 12 22 0.92 28 40 27 05 -02 [COLOR="SlateGray"]15 NYR 26 4 04 05 17 17 0.65 20 29 32 -06 -13[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 CMB 25 43 12 13 8 4 0 3 6 4 -06 02 CDC 24 37 11 13 8 1 2 3 3 7 -09 03 HOU 27 43 13 14 8 4 1 4 3 7 -10 04 LAG 26 41 13 13 5 4 4 5 7 1 -11 05 CHI 26 40 13 13 4 5 4 6 5 2 -12 06 NER 24 34 12 12 6 3 3 3 4 5 -14 07 DCU 26 36 12 14 6 5 1 2 7 5 -14 08 COL 26 38 14 12 8 4 2 2 4 6 -16 09 SEA 26 38 14 12 6 6 2 3 5 4 -16 10 RSL 26 34 13 13 7 5 1 2 2 9 -18 11 TFC 26 34 13 13 7 3 3 2 4 7 -18 12 KCW 25 30 12 13 4 3 5 4 3 6 -19 13 FCD 25 27 12 13 5 4 3 2 2 9 -22 14 SJE 24 22 13 11 5 4 4 0 3 8 -28 15 NYR 26 17 14 12 4 4 6 0 1 11 -37 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP.[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] CDC: NYR, @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU CHI: TFC, @LAG, @NER, CDC CMB: LAG, SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER COL: @KCW, NER, @FCD, @RSL DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW FCD: RSL, NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA HOU: KCW, LAG, @CDC KCW: COL, @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU LAG: @CMB, CHI, @HOU, SJE NER: SEA, @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB NYR: @CDC, @SJE, @RSL, TFC RSL: @FCD, NYR, @TFC, COL SEA: @NER, @CMB, @KCW, FCD SJE: @DCU, NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG TFC: @CHI, SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Code: [B][U]In Brief[/U] - TFC and RSL are fading from contention. - NER jumped over DCU for the 8th spot. - CMB increased its grip on the SS. - SEA and COL look more vulnerable. - Now DCU really needs to win.[/B] Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] 01 CMB 26 4 12 10 04 46 1.77 53 58 02 22 13 02 HOU 27 3 12 07 08 43 1.59 48 52 05 16 07 03 CHI 27 3 10 11 06 41 1.52 46 50 07 14 05 04 LAG 27 3 10 11 06 41 1.52 46 50 07 14 05 05 COL 27 3 10 09 08 39 1.44 43 48 09 12 03 06 CDC 25 5 11 05 09 38 1.52 46 53 10 17 08 07 SEA 27 3 09 11 07 38 1.41 42 47 10 11 02 08 NER 25 5 10 07 08 37 1.48 44 52 11 16 07 ---------------------------------------------------------- 09 DCU 26 4 08 12 06 36 1.38 42 48 12 12 03 10 TFC 27 3 09 08 10 35 1.30 39 44 13 08 -01 11 RSL 27 3 09 07 11 34 1.26 38 43 14 07 -02 12 KCW 26 4 08 07 11 31 1.19 36 43 17 07 -02 13 FCD 26 4 08 06 12 30 1.15 35 42 18 06 -03 14 SJE 24 6 05 07 12 22 0.92 28 40 26 04 -05 [COLOR="SlateGray"]15 NYR 27 3 04 06 17 18 0.67 20 27 30 -09 -18[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 CMB 26 46 13 13 9 4 0 3 6 4 -06 02 HOU 27 43 13 14 8 4 1 4 3 7 -10 03 CDC 25 38 12 13 8 2 2 3 3 7 -11 04 LAG 27 41 13 14 5 4 4 5 7 2 -12 05 NER 25 37 13 12 7 3 3 3 4 5 -14 06 DCU 26 36 12 14 6 5 1 2 7 5 -14 07 CHI 27 41 14 13 4 6 4 6 5 2 -14 08 COL 27 39 14 13 8 4 2 2 5 6 -16 09 SEA 27 38 14 13 6 6 2 3 5 5 -17 10 TFC 27 35 13 14 7 3 3 2 5 7 -18 11 RSL 27 34 13 14 7 5 1 2 2 10 -19 12 KCW 26 31 13 13 4 4 5 4 3 6 -21 13 FCD 26 30 13 13 6 4 3 2 2 9 -22 14 SJE 24 22 13 11 5 4 4 0 3 8 -28 15 NYR 27 18 14 13 4 4 6 0 2 11 -37 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP.[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] CDC: @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU CHI: @LAG, @NER, CDC CMB: SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER COL: NER, @FCD, @RSL DCU: SJE, CDC, CMB, @KCW FCD: NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA HOU: KCW, LAG, @CDC KCW: @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU LAG: CHI, @HOU, SJE NER: @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB NYR: @SJE, @RSL, TFC RSL: NYR, @TFC, COL SEA: @CMB, @KCW, FCD SJE: @DCU, NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG TFC: SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I'm pretty sure at one point last year there was a 3 games played difference between Liverpool and Man U that lasted quite awhile. So perhaps we can go bash the EPL for being Mickey Mouse.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation If San Jose loses to DC United on Sunday, they will be officially eliminated. San Jose would remain on 22, while DC United would have 39 - climbing back into the top 8 and knocking New England with 37 points into 9th place. The most points San Jose could finish with would be 37, eliminating them from the playoffs.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Code: [B][U]In Brief[/U] - The old question returns: How screwed is DCU? Quite screwed. - With DCU's loss, only 7 teams can catch CMB, meaning they're now officially in the playoffs. - San Jose: spoiling playoff hopes and still not officially dead.[/B] Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP M# T# SSE#[/u] [COLOR="DarkBlue"]01 CMB 26 4 12 10 04 46 1.77 53 58 00 22 13[/COLOR] 02 HOU 27 3 12 07 08 43 1.59 48 52 03 16 07 03 CHI 27 3 10 11 06 41 1.52 46 50 05 14 05 04 LAG 27 3 10 11 06 41 1.52 46 50 05 14 05 05 COL 27 3 10 09 08 39 1.44 43 48 07 12 03 06 CDC 25 5 11 05 09 38 1.52 46 53 08 17 08 07 SEA 27 3 09 11 07 38 1.41 42 47 08 11 02 08 NER 25 5 10 07 08 37 1.48 44 52 09 16 07 ---------------------------------------------------------- 09 DCU 27 3 08 12 07 36 1.33 40 45 10 09 00 10 TFC 27 3 09 08 10 35 1.30 39 44 11 08 -01 11 RSL 27 3 09 07 11 34 1.26 38 43 12 07 -02 12 KCW 26 4 08 07 11 31 1.19 36 43 15 07 -02 13 FCD 26 4 08 06 12 30 1.15 35 42 16 06 -03 14 SJE 25 5 06 07 12 25 1.00 30 40 21 04 -05 [COLOR="SlateGray"]15 NYR 27 3 04 06 17 18 0.67 20 27 28 -09 -18[/COLOR] GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG) MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 - Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B] Code: [B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U] [U] GP PTS HG AG HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U] 01 CMB 26 46 13 13 9 4 0 3 6 4 -06 02 HOU 27 43 13 14 8 4 1 4 3 7 -10 03 CDC 25 38 12 13 8 2 2 3 3 7 -11 04 LAG 27 41 13 14 5 4 4 5 7 2 -12 05 NER 25 37 13 12 7 3 3 3 4 5 -14 06 CHI 27 41 14 13 4 6 4 6 5 2 -14 07 COL 27 39 14 13 8 4 2 2 5 6 -16 08 SEA 27 38 14 13 6 6 2 3 5 5 -17 09 DCU 27 36 13 14 6 5 2 2 7 5 -17 10 TFC 27 35 13 14 7 3 3 2 5 7 -18 11 RSL 27 34 13 14 7 5 1 2 2 10 -19 12 KCW 26 31 13 13 4 4 5 4 3 6 -21 13 FCD 26 30 13 13 6 4 3 2 2 9 -22 14 SJE 25 25 13 12 5 4 4 1 3 8 -26 15 NYR 27 18 14 13 4 4 6 0 2 11 -37 Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] CDC: @DCU, KCW, SJE, @CHI, HOU CHI: @LAG, @NER, CDC CMB: SEA, @NER, @DCE, NER COL: NER, @FCD, @RSL DCU: CDC, CMB, @KCW FCD: NER, @SJE, COL, @SEA HOU: KCW, LAG, @CDC KCW: @HOU, @CDC, SEA, DCU LAG: CHI, @HOU, SJE NER: @FCD, @COL, CMB, CHI, @CMB NYR: @SJE, @RSL, TFC RSL: NYR, @TFC, COL SEA: @CMB, @KCW, FCD SJE: NYR, FCD, @TOR, CDC, LAG TFC: SJE, RSL, @NYR[/B]
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I think writing TFC off at this point is certainly premature. Especially since so many other teams stumbled this week (Colorado, Chivas, Seattle, and DC the main culprits). Though they have 35 points with three left, those three are: SJ and RSL at home (two of the poorer road teams in the league not named NY), and @NY. I'd say three wins is a possibility, and thus 44 points. Certainly 42 is with reach, though that may not be enough, but 44 likely is. Still, my 8 in order of certainty: 1) Columbus. In already. 2) Houston. Can clinch on the week-end with a win v. KC. I like their chances. But a choke could make things interesting, as LA comes to town and then the last one @CHV. 3) Chivas USA. Easiest schedule and most games in hand. @DC, SJ, KC, @CHI, Hou. The middle two scream win, and that = 44 points. Houston will likely already be in by the end (and may have a meaningful CL game midweek). 4) LA. Host Chicago this week, then @Hou. If they lose this one, they could be looking at the last game vs. SJ to clinch. And you know the Quakes would love to knock the Gals out. 5) Chicago. @LA, @NE, CHV is no picnic either. But I gotta think they come through at least once. ------------------------------------------------------------- Gets vulnerable after that. 6) Colorado. NE, @FCD, @RSL. After choking points away (but simultaneously rescuing two) against SJ, and a draw @KC, just winning at home vs. NE and the 42 points it gives them may not be enough. FCD is scoring in bunches, and @RSL is never a picnic. Missing Clark and Smith out wide hurts. 7) New England. 5 games left, none are easy. @FCD, @Col, CLB, CHI, @CLB. If CLB already has the SS by the last game, they could get a break. 8) Seattle. @CLB, @KC, FCD. One home game left. Maybe won't get the Crew's best XI with their focus on Saprissa midweek. Still, a win and a draw gives them 42, and TFC could easily match or better it with their schedule. I think TFC has the best chance to oust one of the teams above, followed by DC (two home games left), RSL (must get points @TFC, unless 40 makes it), and FCD (easy next three: NE, @SJ, COL, @SEA). In fact, I think TFC will catch Seattle this week.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Yeah, that's true. Looking at TFC's schedule you might even believe it's possible for them to win all three games. That said, I don't think you can underestimate SJE right now. They've proven themselves very capable of getting upsets. That's not just the DCU game. COL is vulnerable now because they only managed draws against SJE. In fact, COL may be lucky now to end the season with 43 points. That might be just enough, but it'll be close. Code: [B][U]Remaining Schedule - By Week[/U] WK29 WK30 WK31 WK32 CDC: @DCU KCW SJE @CHI HOU CHI: @LAG @NER CDC CMB: SEA @NER @DCU NER COL: NER @FCD @RSL DCU: CDC CMB @KCW FCD: NER @SJE COL @SEA HOU: KCW LAG @CDC KCW: @HOU @CDC SEA DCU LAG: CHI @HOU SJE NER: @FCD CMB CHI @CMB @COL NYR: @SJE @RSL TFC RSL: NYR COL @TFC SEA: @CMB @KCW FCD SJE: NYR FCD CDC LAG @TOR TFC: SJE RSL @NYR [/B]
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation FCD @ Seattle last game of the season will be a winner take all playoff battle. You heard it here first
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation United played in the Club World Cup. They had to take some time off for that.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation One week Superliga? CCL?
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I don't know. Ending with less than 43 would have to be considered a pretty disappointing (and surprising) finish. We've got a Revs team at home this weekend that will be coming off a midweek game against Dallas. For our home finale that should be 3 points, putting us at 42. Then we just need a draw in Dallas, which you know the team will want to shut Cunningham down to help Casey towards toe Golden Boot, or in Sandy against our rivals with the Rocky Mountain Cup on the line and possibly a chance to knock FSL out of contention like hey did to us in the final game last year. I expect us to land right on 43, though I wouldn't be shocked by 44 (drawing both road games) or 46 (losing in Dallas and winning in Sandy).
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Don't forget that the Revs haven't won in Colorado since 2001 or 2002 (don't remember which off the top of my head). Historically, New England really struggles in Colorado, and the Rapids should come away from the upcoming game with 3 points, which would go a long way. If the Rapids don't get 3 points in that game, I have a hard time seeing them getting in. I think that New England desperately needs to win at Dallas, thanks to their remaining schedule. Even with two of the games at home, playing against Columbus twice and Chicago won't be easy. Definitely an exciting end to the season!
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Well, I like your chances against the depleted Revs at home, but FCD has been playing pretty well for a while now (post-Cooper), if they can beat the same Revs club as you next week, and win @SJ, they'll be very much alive hosting you guys, and could still max out at 42, and on a roll. And I wouldn't want to have your playoff hopes riding on winning/getting points @RSL. That's a tough place to play, and I'd think last year would be fresh in your mind. Still, 42 might be enough, but it's going to be close.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation United had 13 days between Premier League matches because of the Club World Cup. They also had the Carling Cup semi-finals, which caused them to re-schedule Premier League matches. There's a legitimate reason that they had played a different number of matches than everyone. In MLS, where all other competitions are played mid-week, there really isn't any reason for teams to have more than one game in hand.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation SuperLiga and the fact there are an odd amount of teams in the league this year necessitated a lot more off weeks than usual. The point was MLS isn't the only league that ends up with games-in-hand situations, despite the schnozzle-istic cries of "Mickey Mouse!" by some "Comic Store Guy"-type posters around here...
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation There are Superliga games played on the weekend.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation As well as "Summer of Soccer" friendlies.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation The Galaxy have lost six matches this year, four have been at home to teams currently below them in the West, so I could absolutely see them dropping trow to the NoCals. This Friday's match with the Fire is huge
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation I guarantee that if we take a peak at England on December 15th of this year we will see some variation in the number of games teams have played. People just love to say stupid stuff about MLS and not hold the European leagues to the same standard.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation If Dallas beats the Revs on Wednesday, this thing gets crazy--like 8 drowning men grabbing at each other to stay afloat. The new playoff format is providing thrills, chills, spills and chokes aplenty.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Small correction: SJE's last 2 matches are both on the road (you have them listed as home games for both teams, but they will each be at the HDC).
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Would anybody bet against Dallas beating New England on Wednesday? I still think we're seeing LA, Chivas, Houston, Chicago, and Columbus. The final three I'm going to draw out of a hat.
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation This is a playoff race! I love this format. Basically no teams are out (RB) and there are only 3-4 games left!!!!
Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation Well, KC will bid adieu this week, in all probability. SJ has a bunch of GIH and NY at home this week, so they probably live on (mathematically).